Download climate change impacts on the economy - Tanzania -

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON PRODUCTIVE
SECTORS IN TANZANIA
Prof. P.K.T. Munishi
Sokoine University of Agriculture
Morogoro Tanzania
Contributors
Ms Halima .H. Kilungu – Open University of Tanzania
Ms Happiness Jackson – Sokoine University of Agriculture
OBJECTIVES
• The general
– To highlight the adverse impacts of climate
change to productive sectors of the and
recommend adaptation measures for
mainstreaming into MKUKUTA.
OBJECTIVES
• Specific Objectives
– Assess the short-term, medium and long-term impacts of climate
change to the economy
– Describe and analyze short, medium and long term sector specific
adaptation and mitigation measures, including an estimate of their cost
implications to the Tanzania economy.
– For Agriculture and Food Security Sector - take into consideration the
current coping and adaptation strategies at sector and household level
and the potential for scaling-up and replication in other parts of the
country;
– List and evaluate the existing financing mechanisms within and outside
the context of the UNFCCC + their effectiveness in addressing climate
change, particularly adaptation need for vulnerable communities in
Tanzania;
– Recommend measures for sector specific mainstreaming of climate
change into MKUKUTA.
• To include a 1 – page fact sheet for each sector (at least agriculture,
infrastructure, energy and health) describing in summary the consequences
of climate change for the sector and suggestions for sector specific
adaptation measures and costs estimates for the interventions vs. doing
nothing
METHODOLOGY
• Literature Review – Various Reports
• Technical consultations with key sectors,
• Fieldwork and stakeholders consultations
including a stakeholder workshop
TRENDS IN TANZANIAN CLIMATE
• Tanzania is not homogeneous from a climatic point of
view – variable climate depending on location
•
Arusha
Tabora
Musoma - Mara
Songea - Ruvuma
Temperature – Increase in all zones
TRENDS IN TANZANIAN CLIMATE
320
300
280
260
240
220
Year
Shortening of the Growing Season
Trend of dry spells - Dolly
Probability.
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Day number (1 = 1 Sept)
1935-50
1951-70
1971-88
Probability of Dry Spells Increasing
360
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
0
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
200
1930
Day number (1 = 1 Sept.).
Cessation of rains - Dolly
SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS
• Weather patterns as influenced by climate
variability differ for different zones.
• Means specific adaptation and mitigation
measures in different areas depending on the
observed variability.
• The impact of climate change threatens the
livelihoods of those with:
–
–
–
–
–
low income,
food insecurity,
inadequate health services,
unstable energy supplies, and
fragile natural ecosystems.
7
SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS
Agriculture and Food Security
• Increasing temperature, decreased/
unpredictable rainfall, increased
evapotranspiration and seasonal
unpredictability - consequences on:
 Drought
 Floods
 Decreased Crop yields (maize decrease average 33%
- but coffee – increase 18%
 Shifts in agro-ecological zones and agro –biodiversity
 increased outbreaks of pest and diseases,
 reduced germplasm diversity and,
 expansion of livestock keeping into farmland as the
area under range-land shrinks.
• Increased rainfall:
 floods, nutrient draining and soil erosion
 Create conducive environment for diseases such as
fungus hence low yield and thus food shortage
8
SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS
Climate Change Impacts on
Water Resources
• Both positive and negative
consequences
– The Ruvu basin, 10%
decrease in runoff
– Pangani basin 6% decrease
in runoff
– The Rufiji /Great Ruaha
River, increases in annual
runoff of 5% and 11% at
Mtera and Kidatu,
Code
1C1
1H5
1HB2
1HA9
A
Trends
Paramete
Station Name Period
rs Annu JF MAM JJAS OND
al
- Z -0.015 0.10 Sigi at Lanzoni
19578 0.17 0.852 0.10
Estate
1989
DN UP DN DN DN
S
0
8
- 0.28
Z -0.581 0.58 1959Ruvu at Kibungo
1 1.21 0.094 1
1987
DN DN DN DN UP
S
9
- 0.48
Z -0.506 1.57 1959Mgeta at Mgeta
6 0.46 0.319 8
1987
DN UP DN DN UP
S
9
Z
0.506 0.46 0.65 0.150 Ngerengere at
19599 7
0.73
Konga
1987
UP UP UP UP DN
S
2
- 0.28
Z -1.482 - Ruvu at Morogoro 19590.39 1.14 0.469 1
Rd.
1987
DN DN DN DN UP
S
4 4
• Increasingly erratic rainfall
– drought and floods,
– hurricanes and storms,
1H8
– increase in river flooding damage hydropower and
human settlements occurring
along these basins
Decreasing Flows all basins – long term
– Alter availability of water for
9
different uses - conflicts
SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS
Climate Change Impacts on Energy
•
Reduction of forest cover will affect the supply of fuel
wood which meets 92% of rural energy needs in
Tanzania.
•
Reduced river flow will affect water levels in
hydroelectric dams leading to power shortage and
increase electricity tariffs together with dependence on
wood fuel.
•
Shortage of hydropower and expensive fossil fuel have
forced industries using these sources to switch to the
use of fuelwood, driving further deforestation and forest
degradation
•
Energy shortage from traditional sources will force
people and the government to explore the potential for
biofuels.
•
•
•
However, biofuels farming will compete with food crops
and pressure to clear forests
This will affect the livelihoods of communities and also
to more CO2 emissions
10
SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS
Impact on Health
• Four major health hazards reported
– Rural areas,
• Malaria, Dysentery, Cholera, and
Meningitis
– Towns/Cities
• Water bone diseases such as cholera,
malaria and typhoid
• Transmission is high during high temperatures
and humidity, after the rain season.
• Malaria is now common in non traditional areas
such as Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Iringa etc.
• 19% of national health spending is on Malaria
11
SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS
Impacts on Forestry & Wildlife
• Areas where rainfall will increase:
– forests cover will increase
•Areas where rainfall will decrease:
– forest cover will decrease
– frequency and intensity of forest
fires will increase
– impact to livelihoods dependent
on forests
• Generally - changes in forest types,
species composition and distribution
12
SHORT – LONG TERM IMPACTS
•
Impacts on Energy Sector
– Biomass and Hydropower - quite vulnerable to climate change impacts
– Reduced rainfall – reduced flow – impact on hydropower production.
– Multiple impacts – other sectors dependent on electricity will suffer the
consequences.
– Could change perceptions and valuations of energy technology
alternatives – big bearing and meaning for energy policies, decisions, and
institutions
– Climate warming will change the patterns of energy consumption for
cooling and will likely increase the amount of energy required for cooling.
– Will vary by region and by season, but will affect household and business
energy demand and costs.
– Also likely to occur changes in energy consumption in key climatesensitive sectors of the economy, such as transportation, construction,
agriculture, with wide multiplier effect in other related sectors.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
•
Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture and Food Security
– Use of improved crop varieties,
– Pest risk analysis and improvement of pest management techniques
– Breeding crop and livestock for drought and pest tolerance,
– Awareness creation on climate change and adaptation strategies,
– Strengthening early warning systems,
– Research on pest resistant varieties,
– Improved assessment tools for forecasting migratory pests including
Integrated crop and pest management
– Better use of climate and weather data, weather forecasts, and other
management tools,
– Improved soil and water conservation measures – water harvesting
• Generally
– Design sustainable crop production and farming systems reflective of climate
change scenarios
– Increase C sequestration on farms – AFOLU
• Reduced tillage (minimal cultivation),
• High carbon crops (fruit or nut orchard, vines, tea, coffee) and
• Agroforestry
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
• Adaptation Strategies in the Health Sector
– Prevention, control and treatment of Malaria, Dysentery, Cholera,
Meningitis and Typhoid and phyto-medicine programmes,
– Establishment of and strengthening community awareness programmes
on preventable major health hazards,
– Establishment of health & climate collaboration & synthesis programs,
– Well coordinated early warning system and emergency measures, at
national, regional and district level and
– Provision of efficient equipment to assist early diagnosis in health
centres and availability of sufficient trained staff at all health facilities.
– Map areas susceptible to climate change impacts
– Build capacity in the area of climate change and health, establish and
develop emergency preparedness and response capacity
– Develop database and monitoring system on climate change and
indicators of health impacts
– Identify priority prevention and mitigation measures including mitigation
plans
– Strengthen focused disease control program for prevention and
treatment of climate sensitive diseases.
– Promote simple and cost effective technologies to prevent diseases
including household level water treatment and safe storage facilities
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
Adaptation Strategies in Water Management
• Irrigation development
• Development of alternative water storage and water harvesting
• Strengthening integrated water resources management
• Development of both surface and subsurface water reservoirs
• Promotion of community based Catchment conservation and
management
• Promotion of new water serving technologies in irrigation
• Development of recycle and reuse facility in industrial sector and
potentially in households
• Floods control
16
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
Adaptation Strategies in the Energy Sector
•Over 92% of the domestic energy in Tanzania is wood-based
• Sustainable supply can be met through forest establishment:
–
–
–
–
–
smallholder forestry,
private woodlots,
agro-forestry, and
large scale fuelwood plantations
Forest management
• Hydro power supply through improve Catchment management –
Catchment Forestry
•Bio-fuel production and carbon trade markets.
• Participate in AFOLU for carbon markets
–
–
–
–
–
proper land use planning and management,
better agricultural practices e.g. agroforestry; conservation tillage;
sustainable fuelwood plantations;
animal husbandry;
soil C storage
• Alternative Energy - Solar, Hydro, Wind, Bio-charcoal and Biofuels
17
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
•Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Forestry
•Mitigation options:
–
–
–
–
protection of existing forests;
afforestation, reforestation, and forest productivity improvements;
revegetation of degraded lands by tree /shrub planting, and
substitution of fossil fuels by sustain ably produced fuelwood
•Address the causes of deforestation and forest degradation:
– provide affordable and sustainable alternative energy sources gas,
biogas and improved utilization of fuelwood and bio-fuels
– avoid shifting cultivation through conservation tillage, use of
fertilisers and manure, and agroforestry
– establish woodlots to meet timber demand
• Strengthening community based forest management
practices
• Assess impacts of Climate change on the forestry sector
• Embark on better land use planning through REDD+ policy
18
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
• CC will undermine the goals of MKUKUTA
through its differential impact on a number
of economic sectors
• National and local economies are already
vulnerable to climate events:
– floods,
– droughts,
– heat waves,
– tropical storms
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
• We have faced extreme weather events of
drought and floods
– Severe impact on its population (2 million people
suffering from food scarcity in 2005)
– 2005 the Tanzanian GDP grew by 6.8% as
opposed to the 6.9% target – associated with
drought
– Economic loss - 1% of GDP due to droughts in
2006
– Population suffering from food shortages and
depressed household economy is expected to
increase to 60% by 2030
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
• The agricultural sector grew by only 5.2% in 2005
compared to 5.8% growth in 2004 again attributed to
the prolonged drought in 2005/2006
• The 2008/2009 droughts have imposed big impacts
on both crop production and livestock production
• Some areas experiencing a loss of livestock of more
than 60%.
– Kirya Ward in Mwanga district lost more 70% of it livestock
during the 2009 drought
– Mwanga district received over 600 MT of food aid due to
poor harvests of agriculture crops associated with the
drought
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
• More than120,000 MT of food aid was required this year as a result of the
2008/2009 drought which affected more than 1.5 million people
• Hunger caused mainly by drought has been the problem in many parts of
the country
– Chamwino district
• food deficit of about 80%
• >45% of its households being unable to buy food
• Floods – multiple impacts
– Kilosa floods
• >3,000 people homeless
•
•
•
•
Damage
>2,000 ha farmlands,
>350 ha of pasture lands
Transportation infrastructure.
• All these are likely to inflict multiple impacts on the countries economy.
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO
MKUKUTA
– In order to mainstream Climate Change in
MKUKUTA
• Issues of climate change should feature and span
across the three pillars of MKUKUTA but more
importantly cluster I and II which touch directly on
the productive sectors of the economy.
• Need to consider sector vulnerability and develop
adaptation and mitigation strategies accordingly
• Note: All productive sectors are inclusive
23
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE IN MKUKUTA
• Considerations for mainstreaming climate
change into MKUKUTA
– Update the existing MKUKUTA goals to address climate
change impacts or
– Add a cross cutting cluster on climate change with targets
such as issues of carbon footprint, reduction/mitigation of
greenhouse gas emissions etc.
– Make use of existing research findings on vulnerability
and climate change impacts on different sectors
– Support more research on vulnerability and impacts
analysis including adaptive capacity of different socioecological systems to climate change
– Use findings on vulnerability and impacts as a basis for
planning production in different sectors of the economy
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MKUKUTA
• Develop a framework in MKUKUTA with action areas that address both
adaptation and mitigation:
– Support to climate actions in the development processes;
– Mobilize additional innovative finance within the planning process to
address climate change mitigation;
– Facilitate the development of market-based financing mechanisms for
climate change mitigation and adaptation and leverage private sector
resources
– Support accelerated development and deployment of new
technologies that ensure adaptation and mitigation actions and
– Enhance policy research, knowledge and capacity building in areas of
climate change and its impacts
–
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MKUKUTA
• Central to mainstreaming climate change
impacts in MKUKUTA there is a need to
implement a Comprehensive Climate Change
Resilient Development Strategy (CCRDS).
• Through the following steps:
– Creation of an inclusive national or local effort to
implement processes that ensure mitigation and
adaptation to climate change
– Identify priority measures within MKUKUTA
process and define current and targeted
penetration of the identified priority measures
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO MKUKUTA
• Address existing obstacles to development
implementation such as policy frameworks,
institutional capacity and organization
– may require deliberate revision of policies to incorporate
climate change mitigation measures
• Encourage sufficient funding from different sources
– e.g. taking advantage of available technical skills,
institutional capacity building, policy and planning and
knowledge dissemination.
• Recognize and mobilize different roles for each
stakeholder including government ministries,
NGOs, the private sector, communities and
individuals
BROAD APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE
• Three broad approaches;
– Infrastructure/asset based responses,
– Technological/process optimization responses and
– Systemic/behavioral responses
(1) Infrastructure/asset based responses
– Require physical changes to existing assets or
infrastructure e.g. buildings, planting conservation or
management of mangrove ecosystems buffers to
disperse sea wave energy
– improving communication by roads, rail especially in
rural areas to improve accessibility and access to
markets
– expansion and improvement of irrigation infrastructure
BROAD APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT RISKS
• Technological/Process Optimization Responses
– measures that require adoption or use of
different technology, process or input to
mitigate climate change impacts
• Improved fertilizer application
• Wider use of technology to improve the effectiveness of
irrigation
• Improve and intensify irrigation technology
BROAD APPROACHES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT RISKS
•
Systemic/Behavioral Response
–
Measures that involve behavioral change or coordinated
systematic response
• Measures to protect from flood risks including awareness
campaign for local communities/ residents in cities, towns and
villages.
• Tools to assess homes, individual risk profiles,
• Improved emergency response training
• Self assessment of risks of flooding based on location
–
Where the costs of severe weather events are prohibitive we can
use a range of risk transfer measures e.g. insurance and
alternative financial solutions for property as among the inclusions
in portfolio of adaptation measures.
–
Take into account measures that are already being implemented
to promote economic development but would also strengthen
climate resilience. For example irrigation policy (there is already an
irrigation master plan in place)
EXISTING FINANCING MECHANISMS
• GEF Support to Adaptation Action in Africa
• Funding Initiatives Outside of UNFCCC (NonConvention Funds)
• UN Funded Projects Related to Climate Change
in Tanzania
• Bilateral and Multilateral Donors outside the UN
funding Climate Change Activities in Tanzania
EFFECTIVENESS AND ADEQUACY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
FUNDING
• Funding available is fairly limited and has mainly
been provided in the form of short-term projects.
• Funding landscape for climate change is
undergoing rapid development. It is currently fairly
complex, and financing is channelled through a
multitude of mechanisms
• Complex funding landscape, and the fact that the
guidelines and priorities for most funds are
determined outside Tanzania, poses a major
challenge for the GoT and its development partners
THANKS