Download Slide 1 - climateknowledge.org

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2012
April 17, 2012
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Interesting new document?
– OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The
Consequences of Inaction
What is in this lecture?
• A story on climate change science to a
group of professionals who want to think
about investing themselves or money into
climate change.
– I don’t plan to give all of this lecture.
• Thinking about the class, what learned,
effectiveness, the future …
We the People
• Tim Flannery, The Future Eaters,
– Humans are a species prone to ruining
ecosystems and destroying their own futures
I want to talk about the class and future
• Strong evidence
• Predictions are unique opportunity
• Ambiguity
–
–
–
–
No simply structured solutions
Many competing issues
Many competing uncertainties
Indirect relation between cause and effect
• Existing resources are enormous
• It is how we use these resources this
knowledge.
I want to talk about the class and future
• What did you learn?
• Effectiveness of
– Lecture
– Readings
– Discussion classes
– Projects
• How would you change class?
– I am thinking radical revision
Start of Lecture Material
Starting point: Scientific foundation (1)
• The scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate is
based on fundamental principles of the
conservation of energy, momentum, and
mass.
• The scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate is
based on an enormous and diverse
number of observations.
Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
• Based on the scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe
that with virtual certainty:
– The average global temperature of the Earth’s
surface has increased due to the addition of gases
into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the
surface. (Greenhouse gases)
– Primary gases added to the atmosphere:
• Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide, Methane, CFCs
– Primary natural greenhouse gases:
• Water, Carbon Dioxide
Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
• Based on the scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict
with virtual certainty:
– The average global temperature of the Earth’s
surface will continue to rise because of the continued
increase of gases that hold heat close to the surface.
– Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt.
– Sea level will rise.
– The weather will change.
• This is unprecedented opportunity.
Some useful similes?
• Greenhouse gas increase in the atmosphere is
like adding blankets to the surface of the Earth.
• Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is like
closing a window that has been cracked open to
help cool an overheated room.
• Model projections are like a telescope looking at
deep space, we are constantly improving the
focus.
The basic science-based knowledge
• The mechanism of greenhouse gas
warming is well known and has,
conceptually, been known for about 2
centuries.
• The calculations of heating due to carbon
dioxide can be calculated with great
accuracy.
Outline
• Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming
– Just temperature
– Broader Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fingerprinting to attribute warming
The whole problem in three slides
What about impacts? And Integrated impacts?
Climate Case Studies
Summary and Commentary
Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more information
Correlated behavior of different parameters
Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time
series from a range of indicators that
would be expected to correlate strongly
with the surface record. Note that
stratospheric cooling is an expected
consequence of greenhouse gas increases.
A version of this figure with full references
is available at
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-theclimate/2009.php .
Global Annual Average
Differences from 20th Century Mean
Rood: Just Temperature
Global August Average
Differences from 20th Century Mean
Rood: Just Temperature
Highs versus Lows
Rood: Just Temperature
Length of
Growing
Season
From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University
NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010
IPCC 2007:
The last
~100 years
What parameters/events do we care about?
• Temperature
• Water
– Precipitation
– Evaporation
– Humidity
• Droughts
• Floods
• Extreme Weather
• Air Composition
– Air quality
– Aerosols
– Carbon dioxide
• Winds
• Clouds / Sunlight
The impact of climate change is
Water for Ecosystems
Water for People
Water for Energy
Water for Physical Climate
Outline
• Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming
– Just temperature
– Broader Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fingerprinting to attribute warming
The whole problem in three slides
What about impacts? And Integrated impacts?
Climate Case Studies
Summary and Commentary
Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)
Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
Observed Global Temperature Differences
(1951 – 2011) – (1951-1980) from GISS
Remember the simile
• If I put blankets on the surface, then it has
to get a little bit cooler at some distance
above the surface.
Correlated behavior of different parameters
Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time
series from a range of indicators that
would be expected to correlate
strongly with the surface record.
Note that stratospheric cooling is an
expected consequence of greenhouse
gas increases. A version of this figure
with full references is available at
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-theclimate/2009.php .
Attribution: Fingerprinting
• If you use the basic science of
–
–
–
–
–
–
Warming due to greenhouse gases
Warming due to changes in the Sun
Warming due to changes in ozone
Warming due to changes in aerosols
Warming due to changes in volcanic activity
Warming due to changes in ocean-atmosphere-land
• They each have a different pattern or fingerprint.
• Using this approach far less than 1% chance of
an alternative explanation of warming.
Outline
• Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming
– Just temperature
– Broader Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fingerprinting to attribute warming
The whole problem in three slides
What about impacts? And Integrated impacts?
Climate Case Studies
Summary and Commentary
Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)
Summary Points: Science
Correlated Observations
CO2 and Temperature Observed to be
strongly related on long time scales (>
100 years)
CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be
strongly related on short time scales (<
10 years)
Land Use / Land Change
Other Greenhouse Gases
Aerosols
Internal Variability
Theory / Empirical Evidence
CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near
Surface
Theory / Conservation Principle
Mass and Energy Budgets
 Concept of “Forcing”
Validation
Prediction
Earth Will
Warm
Attribution
Consequences
Observations
CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil
Fuels
Feedbacks
Air Quality
“Abrupt” Climate Change
IPCC projections for the next 100 years.
Averaging Time Span
Size of Projected Differences
Size of Observed Differences
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
ENERGY
IMPACTS
LAW
CONSUMPTION
POPULATION
UNCERTAINTY
Fragmented
Policy
INTEGRATED
IIMPACTS
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
?
Outline
• Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming
– Just temperature
– Broader Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fingerprinting to attribute warming
The whole problem in three slides
What about impacts? And Integrated impacts?
Climate Case Studies
Summary and Commentary
Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)
Thinking about the problem: Uncertainty
• Thinking about uncertainty:
– On time lengths of 10s of years, our ability to
represent the oceanic variability, for example, drives
the problem.
– On time lengths of 50 years, what we call “model
uncertainty” drives the problem.
– On time lengths of 100 years, what we call “scenario
uncertainty” drives the problem.
– On time lengths of 1000s of years, things like the
interaction of ice-ocean-land-air drive the problem.
IPCC projections for the next 100 years.
Thinking about the problem: Uncertainty
• There are a lot of uncertainties – but
– That the Earth will warm and sea level will rise
is of little doubt.
• The predictions have been quite stable for more
than 20 years.
– On regional and local scales, the specifics of
how will temperature and rain change in my
back yard are difficult to know.
– On regional and local scales, expert
interpretation and guidance can help a lot.
How to use the information
• Are the underlying regional and local
mechanisms of heat and water transport
represented?
• Are model projections consistent with
these mechanisms?
• Do the observations provide an emerging
signal consistent with projections and
mechanisms?
McKenney et al., 2011, Global Change Biology
What most worry about
•
•
•
•
Storage of water in snow and ice
Changes in extreme weather
Sea level rise
Abrupt climate change
Storage of water in snow and ice
• For example Barnett et al., 2005: Impact
Warming Water Resources in Snow
Dominated Regions
“With more than one-sixth of the Earth’s population
relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their
water supply, the consequences of these hydrological
changes for future water availability—predicted with high
confidence and already diagnosed in some regions—are
likely to be severe.”
Changes in extreme weather
Link
Changes in extreme weather
• Convincing trends in precipitation that
comes in most intense events.
• Floods, droughts, and heat waves –
evolving in a warming world
• Hurricanes?
• Tornadoes?
Projected Sea Level Rise for end of 21st Century
Thanks to Jim McCarthy
Rahmstorf 2010
Sea Level Rise
“On the basis of calculations presented
here, we suggest that an improved
estimate of the range of sea level rise to
2100 including increased ice dynamics
lies between 0.8 and 2.0 meters
[31 – 78 inches].”
Pfeffer et al. 2008
Thanks to Jim McCarthy
Sea level rise is NOT constant
(The earth is not round.)
Thanks to Jeremy Bassis
Abrupt Climate Change
• Lot’s of evidence of significant shifts over
decades to centuries.
– Internal dynamics of ocean-ice-landatmosphere
– Volcanoes
• We have developed our society in a period
of stable and “temperate” climate.
– “Warm” cycle of the ice ages
Outline
• Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming
– Just temperature
– Broader Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fingerprinting to attribute warming
The whole problem in three slides
What about impacts? And Integrated impacts?
Climate Case Studies
Summary and Commentary
Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)
Climate Case Studies?
• Thames Barriers // Adaptation in the U.K.
• Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011
• Russian heat wave and drought 2010
– The Arab Spring
• The 2011 Japanese earthquake
• The Texas drought
Markets, Commodities, Energy
Outline
• Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming
– Just temperature
– Broader Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fingerprinting to attribute warming
The whole problem in three slides
What about impacts? And Integrated impacts?
Climate Case Studies
Summary and Commentary
Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)
Some Points
• Science-based conclusions
– The surface of the Earth has warmed and this
warming is consistent with increasing greenhouse
gases. CO2 is most important.
– The Earth will continue to warm.
– The concept of “stabilization” of CO2 is challenged by
the consideration of ocean-land-atmosphere time
scales
• Carbon dioxide does not go away
• Accumulated carbon dioxide is important
• 1 trillion tons  440 ppm
We arrive at levels of granularity
WEALTH
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Some Points
• Analysis and Opinion
– Probability of stabilizing at less than 440, 560 … ppm
is very small.
• If we decide to stabilize, then we need to figure out
how to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
– U.S. and Europe have lost any policy opportunity to
develop consensus-based international policy.
– Continued discrediting of climate science and science
in general in political arguments is putting U.S. at
technological and innovational disadvantages.
Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1)
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
10
9
Observed
Projected
A1B Models Average
A1FI Models Average
A1T Models Average
A2 Models Average
8
B1 Models Average
B2 Models Average
7
Full range of IPCC
individual scenarios
used for climate
projections
6
5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Time (y)
Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC
2010; International Monetary Fund 2010
Thanks to Jim McCarthy
Transport of Embodied Emissions
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
5
55%
5
Annex B
Annex B
4
4
Developed Nations
45%
3
Developing Nations
2
Non-Annex B
1990
2000
Local Emissions
Developed Nations
3
25% of growth
2
Developing Nations
Non-Annex B
2010 1990
2000
2010
Local + Imported Product Emissions
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich
2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009
Thanks to Jim McCarthy
Some Points
• Analysis and Opinion
– We need to start to plan for a world that is on
average, warmer than the 2 degrees C that we have
deemed as the threshold of “dangerous”.
– We have an enormous opportunity provided by
predictions of climate change. We have the choice of
whether or not to take advantage of this opportunity
on personal, professional, local, national, and
international levels.
• The world 4 degrees warmer: January 13, 2011 issue of The
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Some References for the Interested
• Rood
– Rood Climate Change Class
• Reference list from course
– Rood Blog Data Base
• Lemos and Rood (2010)
• Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming
• IPCC
– IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy
Makers
– IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy
Makers
• Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in
the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006
Reference Material: National Security and Intelligence
• 2007: National Security and Climate Change,
Retired Generals and Admirals
• 2009: National Security Energy and Climate,
Retired Generals and Admirals
• 2008: Testimony to Intelligence Committee
• 2008: National Intelligence Council
Assessment
• 2010: Quadrennial Defense Review
• 2012: Security and Water Resources
Some Basic References
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
– IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers
• Spencer Weart: The Discovery of Global Warming
• Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
• Simple climate models
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm
• Paul Edwards: A Vast Machine
• Rood
– Rood Climate Change Class
• Reference list from course
– Rood Blog Data Base
Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are Not Wrong
Elements of the Political Argument
• APPENDIX
PA1: Just a Theory
• A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory,
equating theory with conjecture.
– Theory is not conjecture, it is testable.
• Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system,
governed by quantitative conservation equations.
– Theory is not fact, it can and will change.
– Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that the theory
might be wrong.
• Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory.
– True, and the theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by
Newton.
– True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity,
there are “why” questions.
– Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein
did.
• Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example,
to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some
confidence.
PA2: Greenhouse Effect
• This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the
surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable.
– Habitable? Water exists in all three phases?
• Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural
greenhouse gases.
• Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces
of CO2 cannot be important.
– Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is
so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative
humidity.)
– This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the
climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we
have co-evolved with that are important.
• Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or
closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.
PA3: What happens to this CO2
• A “new” political argument: CO2 from fossil fuels is small
compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True.
But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the
excess CO2, the CO2 on the margin that comes from
fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and
oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere.
• There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year emitted
– 3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere
– 2.3 Pg C go into the ocean
– 3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems
• Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification
– Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008
• It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.
PA4: Cycles
• Some say that there are cycles, they are natural,
they are inevitable, they show that human have
no influence.
– Cycles? yes  natural? Yes
• Inevitable  There are forces beyond our control
– We can determine what causes cycle; they are not
supernatural
• Greenhouse gases change
• “Life” is involved  ocean and land biology
• Humans are life  This is the time humans release CO2
PA4: Cycles  CO2 and T
• At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature
starts to go up before CO2; hence, T increase is
unrelated to CO2
– Need to think about time and balance here …
• There are sources of T and CO2 variability other than the
radiative greenhouse gas effect.
– If CO2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced
surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change
temperature beyond other sources of variability?
– If T increases, there could be CO2 increases associated with,
for instance, release from solution in the ocean
– CO2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive
die off of trees, volcanoes  have to count, know the balance.
PA4: Cycles: Ice Ages
• In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age.
Now warming. You have no credibility, why
should we believe you now.
– In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press
attention.
– 2010  Think scientific method
• Observations, observations, observations
• Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect
• Results reproduced my many investigators, using many
independent sources of observations
• Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations
• Probability of alternative description is very small.
PA5:
The last 1000 years: The hockey stick
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
PA5: Hockey Stick
• This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is
very controversial. Quality of data,
presentation, manipulation, messaging.
– Rood blog
– Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy
• There are some issues with data,
messaging, emotions of scientists here,
but the data are, fundamentally, correct.
PA5: Hockey Stick: Science
• But place the surface temperature record of the
hockey stick in context using the scientific
method.
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers,
through independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations 
sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of
spring
– Consistency of signals with theory  upper
tropospheric cooling
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses
PA5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source
• There has developed a discussion between those who believe in
surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data.
– Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each
system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be
reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other.
• Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island
– If ignored (wrong), then data flawed
– If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted
• Satellite data objective and accurate?
– Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is
different, calibrated with non-satellite data
• And ultimately: Scientific method
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through
independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations
– Consistency of signals with theory
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses