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Global Climate Change: What on Earth are we Doing?! Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science Department Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 [email protected] PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline Evidence for global climate change Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Simulations of global climate and future climate change Impacts of climate change Social inequities and ethical issues surrounding climate change Summary PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2005 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2040 2005 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100 Associated Climate Changes Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Agung, 1963 El Chichon (1982) Mt. Pinatubo (1991) Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report 40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis IPCC Summary for Policy Makers An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries Further action is required to address remaining gaps in information and understanding Climate Surprises Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water) Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Antarctica Greenland 0 Cold Warm Climate PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin 119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL Approximately one observing station per sub-basin Approximately one model grid point per sub-basin RegCM2 Simulation Domain Red = global model grid point Green/blue = regional model grid points Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate Relation of Runoff to Precipitation for Various Climates “Warming Hole” ˚C DTmax (JJA) Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Social Inequities due to Climate Change Agricultural production Freshwater availability Sea-water innundation Intergenerational equities PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Social Inequities due to Climate Change Agricultural production Freshwater availability Sea-water innundation Intergenerational equities PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Social Inequities due to Climate Change Agricultural production Freshwater availability Sea-water innundation Intergenerational equities PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/38.htm Social Inequities due to Climate Change Agricultural production Freshwater availability Sea-water innundation Intergenerational equities PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Sea-Water Innundation Example: The Maldives Area: 115 square miles Population: 143,000 Highest point: 20 ft above sea level PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Social Inequities due to Climate Change Agricultural production Freshwater availability Sea-water innundation Intergenerational inequities PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Intergenerational Inequities Sustainable Development: “To meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.” Energy sources? Non-renewable earth resources? Agricultural productivity? Fresh water supplies? Heavy metal contamination of soil and water? PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Summary Climate change is real and we need to be doing something about it The longer we wait, the fewer our options Regional patterns of warming will be complicated Climate surprises can’t be discounted Climate change carries ethical implications PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information See my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse Contact me directly: [email protected] http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/ PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS