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Global Environmental Changes:
Technology and the Future of Planet Earth
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Globalization Seminar, Mechanical Engineering 484X, 18 January 2006
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline
Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
 Radiative forcing
 Simulations of global climate and future
climate change
 “Dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”?
 “Climate surprises”
 Summary
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2006
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2040
2006
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
3.5
Concentration (parts per million)
375
3
370
2.5
365
360
2
355
1.5
350
345
1
340
0.5
335
330
1975
0
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
Annual Increase (parts per million)
380
CO2 Conc
Ann Increase
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Nobody believes that the US
economy can still be petroleum
based in 2050, yet there is no
national plan”
Mark Kushner, Dean
Iowa State University College of Engineering
President’s Council Meeting
13 January 2006
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Change in Downwelling Longwave Radiation vs.
Change in Surface Temperature
Normalized Change
Longwave Down
Surface (2m) Temperature
From GEWEX News, 14, 1 (November 2004); http://gewx.org/gewex_nwsltr.html
Associated Climate Changes
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Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive
microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per
decade in arctic sea ice extent.
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
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V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Tropical Weather
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Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change
Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic
Growth
Slower Economic
Growth
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Projected sea-level rise
In 21st century:
0.5 to 1.0 m
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers
 An
increasing body of observations gives a
collective picture of a warming world and
other changes in the climate system
 Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols
due to human activities continue to
alter the atmosphere in ways that
are expected to affect the climate
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 There
is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
 Anthropogenic climate change will persist
for many centuries
For the Midwest
Warming will be greater for winter than summer
 Warming will be greater at night than during the
day
 A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave
 Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950)
 More precipitation
 Likely more soil moisture in summer
 More rain will come in intense rainfall events
 Higher stream flow, more flooding
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Climate Surprises
 Breakdown
of the ocean thermohaline
circulation (Greenland melt water)
 Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Kennedy Space
Center
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Constitutes “Dangerous
Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean
temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE
SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
North America Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator
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Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
CCSM
1960-1990 current
HADAM3
link to EU
programs
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
Climate Model Resolution
global
regional (land)
regional (water)
Only every second
RCM grid point is
shown in each
direction
Application of Climate Change Scenarios
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Space-heating/power
demands
Crop yields
Soil carbon levels
Soil erosion
Bird migration patterns
Dairy cow milk production
Heat stress in beef cattle
Snowpack/reservoir
performance
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Crop pathogens
Habitat/climate for
invasive species
Soil or aquatic
ecosystems
Hardiness zones for trees
Freshwater availability
Lake-level changes
Recreation changes
Summary
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Climate change is real and we need to be doing
something about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”
Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to
develop adaptation strategies for the short term
The longer we wait, the fewer our options
Regional patterns of warming will be complicated
Climate surprises can’t be discounted
We need dialog between scientists
and the private sector to develop both
adaptation and mitigation strategies
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information

For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have
seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
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Contact me directly:
[email protected]
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS