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Global Warming, the End of Life as We Know It? The Naysayers View Definition of Global Warming The increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation. “Greenhouse Effect” “Greenhouse Effect” FAQ 1.1, Figure 1 Some Causes of Global Warming Anthropogenous Causes (Industrialization) – CO2 emissions Burning of fossil fuels Deforestation – Methane Livestock – Nitrous oxide Agricultural activities – Fertilizers Natural Causes – – – – Solar variation Volcanoes Orbital forcing Atmospheric greenhouse gasses (major) Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide ozone The Connection High levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have been linked to elevated global temperatures and climate changes However …. Keep in mind the earth has gone through many natural temperature cycles before. http://www.sep p.org/ S. Fred Singer.doc Some Possible Outcomes of Continued Global Warming Further Glacial Retreat (melting/disappearance) – Worldwide sea levels could rise (.36 – 2.5 ft, till 2100) Positive feedbacks causing further warming Weather events – Changes in precipitation Less rain some areas, flooding in others – More frequent and extreme weather events Changes in agricultural yields Increased incidences and areas of diseases The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Established in 1988 by the parent organizations, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) The Role of IPCC: – “Assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of humaninduced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation” – This agency does NOT carry out research or monitor climate data – The basic assessments made are on peer reviewed and published scientific/ technical literature. – Divided into three Working Groups and a Task Force – Getting ready to release their Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) To be released last quarter of 2007 www.ipcc.ch / Conclusions of IPCC Most of the observed increases in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century due to humans Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from preindustrial times to 1950. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science. A few individual scientists disagree with some of the main conclusions of the IPCC – S. Fred Singer www.sepp.org/ Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Founded in 1990 by atmospheric physicist S. Fred Singer the “godfather of global warming denial” “Founded on belief that sound, credible science must form the basis for health and environmental decisions that affect millions of people and cost tens of billions of dollars every year.” Non-profit, educational group Mission: “to clarify the diverse problems facing the planet and where necessary, arrive at effective cost-conscious solutions” www.sepp.org What are we currently basing our forecasts on? We are basically using past data that may not be completely accurate – – – – – Not completely “global” measurements Ice core analysis Fossil analysis “Urban Heat Islands” Discrepancy between satellite and weather balloon data Climate Models We are also using Climate Models which are predictive scenarios of what might happen with our future climate. Over 20 different scientific models – Based on physical principles – Fluid dynamics – Radiative transfer – AR4WG1_Ch01-Figs_2007-06-05.ppt – AR4WG1_Ch10-Figs_2007-06-05.ppt What is the concern with predictive models? All the factors that effect global warming are so numerous it is nearly impossible to adjust models to include all of them – How clouds are treated in the models – Water vapor – Variable Sun Magnetic activities – Land clearing albedo changes Other theories of Global Warming Causation? Solar Variation – Astronomical theory – Magnetic activity that deflects cosmic rays, which has and effect on cloud formation – Ice ages cycles are linked to this theory A few people over there in Durham (Duke) have written papers suggesting the Sun’s contribution to current global warming may have been underestimated by 45-50% (1900-2000) Other theories of Global Warming Causation? Continental drift – Tectonic Events – Shifts in plates under the earths surface – Linked to long term climate changes Atmosphere – Ocean Interactions – Changes in ocean circulation – Linked to shorter climate variations Butterfly effect ? – Unknown variable In Summary, Does Global Warming mean the End of Life as We Know It? The majority of the climate models predict that conditions wouldn’t become severe until the year 2100, so it wouldn’t be the end of life as WE know it if the models are correct Predictive climatology isn’t an exact science so life as we know it may go unchanged, or normalize. People are more likely to want to err on the side of caution and perhaps even take more of an alarmist point of view – No one wants history to repeat its self (such as in the case of lead) – No one wants to overlook something that is preventable (somewhat) and could lead to the total destruction of the world Some Extra Articles Cooling It On Global Warming – http://cagle.msnbc.com/news/GlobalWarmingSt eigerwald/main.asp High Price for Load of Hot Air – http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,237 39,21920043-27197,00.html