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Transcript
The News Tribune - Tacoma, WA
Home > Opinion
Saturday, September 27, 2003
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Are we heating the planet? PRO: Evidence of global
warming is conclusive, and denial is dangerous
RAYMOND S. BRADLEY AND MICHAEL E. MANN;
The evidence for global warming is unequivocal. Temperatures in recent decades
have risen to levels that the Earth has not experienced for well over 1,000 years. Nine
of the 10 warmest years in the last 150 years have occurred since 1990.
These changes in temperature have been accompanied by exceptional changes in
our environment. Ice cover on the Arctic Ocean has been dramatically reduced in
thickness and extent. In Alaska, the frozen tundra has been thawing out, disrupting
roads, buildings and other infrastructure. In the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, millions
of acres of forest have been destroyed by bark beetles that are now able to winter
over, because temperatures are warm enough for them to survive year-round.
What has caused global warming? In 2001, a comprehensive report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), written by leading climatologists
from around the world, concluded that the buildup of greenhouse gases (from fossil
fuel use) has had a clear impact on global climate over the last few decades.
Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, absorb energy emitted by
the Earth, causing temperatures to rise. There is now 30 percent more carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere than there was in preindustrial times, but half of this excess has
been produced since 1965. Similar changes have occurred in the levels of other
greenhouse gases.
Not surprisingly, temperatures have risen sharply in the last 20 to 30 years, in line
with climate model predictions. The conclusions of the IPCC that global warming is
real, and will only get more pronounced in the future, represents the consensus of the
worldwide scientific community.
A blue ribbon panel of U.S. scientists, convened by the National Academy of
Sciences at the request of President Bush, subsequently evaluated the major
conclusions of the IPCC report and solidly endorsed them.
In arguing that combating global warming would be a waste, astronomer Sallie
Baliunas (see accompanying article) promotes an unwise policy of inaction on climate
change by misrepresenting the state of scientific knowledge about global warming.
Her own industry-funded study, upon which she bases her arguments, has been
soundly rejected by mainstream researchers, as detailed in news articles in The Wall
Street Journal, Scientific American and Discover magazine. Her arguments were
recently discredited in an article in the scientific publication Eos (the journal of the
American Geophysical Union), co-authored by 13 leading professional climate
scientists from diverse institutions in the United States and Britain.
These authors emphasize that their conclusion - that late-20th century hemisphericscale warmth is unusual in at least a millennial context and that human factors likely
play an important role in explaining it - represent the robust consensus view of
mainstream climate researchers (scientists who are actually trained in climate
science and publish their work in professional scientific journals).
Baliunas seeks to deny these conclusions through the selective citation of evidence
that might appear to bolster her claims. For example, she tries to impress us with the
observation, "England's climate was warm enough in the 12th and 13th centuries to
support more than 50 vineyards," which she offers as evidence of unusual warmth
during medieval times.
She neglects to mention the evidence indicating unusually cold conditions in many
other regions at precisely the same time. Furthermore, she forgets to mention that
there are more than 350 thriving vineyards in England today.
Does this mean that temperatures are seven times as warm today as they were
during the Middle Ages? Of course not. But this does illustrate the misleading way the
facts are often used by those wishing to deny the existence of human-induced climate
change.
Unless the current rate of fossil fuel consumption is reduced, within a few decades
carbon dioxide levels will be higher than at any time in the last 20 million years.
The lessons of climate history alert us to the fact that the recent changes are not part
of the "normal" ebb and flow of the climate system. They result from our global-scale
interference with Earth's atmosphere.
With more than 6 billion people on Earth today, many living in abject poverty, and
world population expected to reach 9 billion in the next 70 years, we cannot afford to
gamble that our effects on global climate will be minimal. We just cannot pin our
hopes on unsupported speculation that the climate system will somehow bring these
unprecedented and rapid changes into balance.
Ignoring the problem will cost us dearly as we struggle to deal with the societal and
environmental consequences of continued global warming.
Raymond S. Bradley is director of the Climate System Research Center at the
University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Philip D. Jones is director of the Climatic
Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, Great Britain. Michael E.
Mann is an environmental sciences professor at the University of Virginia; he was
lead author of the 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
(Published 12:01AM, August 10th, 2003)
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