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California’s enormous computing resources allow climate simulations at unprecedented resolution capturing California’s regional climate phenomena 50Km resolution 9 Km resolution Target Resolutions Global: 15 Km Duffy and Taylor DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 1 Regional: 1 Km California’s complex terrain drives the need for high resolution climate models Wintertime precipitation rate Duffy DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 2 Local forcings (such as irrigation) are critical to understanding local climate change Annual irrigation data Observed trends Data for 2000 Developed by Food and Agriculture Organization and David Lobell Degree C Winter Natural variability and trends in California temperature records DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 3 Spring natural internal variability (from model simulations) Summer Fall Federal, State, and academic partnerships are key to making progress in regional climate • Federal – DOE – energy use impacts on regional climate • DOE Program on climate simulation diagnosis and analysis • Large compute resources – NOAA – climate prediction mission • Existing regional climate assessment centers via RISA program – NASA – Earth science R&D and satellite observations • Modeling analysis and data assimilation; large compute resources • State – CEC – Energy and climate research in CA • Funding climate change research (regional climate, impacts, adaptation, inventory methods, emission reductions, …) since 2003 ($6M/year) • Leadership in CA Biennial Assessment – CARB – implementation of AB32 • Universities • Innovative models and modeling approaches (e.g., parameterizations) • Ground based observation stations and modeling analysis • Educating next generation of researchers DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 4 Aerosols transported across the Pacific are dramatically impacting California’s air quality standards 1950 - 1990 l N. America: SO2 decreased from 41% to 17%. l Asia: SO2 increased from 7% to 37%. 1970 1950 CameronSmith 2% 2% 7% 21 % 28 % 41 % 34 % 4% 26 % 2% 13 % 18 % 1% T otal: 30.2 T gS 1980 18 % 1% T otal: 56.6 T gS 1990 4% 4% 17 % 26 % 5% 5% 37 % 17 % 21 % 1% 25 % T otal: 59.0 T gS Africa Oceania Asia FSU 1% 19 % T otal: 70.4 T gS Europe L America N America Regional percentage of fossil fuel SO2 emissions (Dignon) DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 5 Currently 25% of PM2.5 limits in CA are caused by aerosol transported from across the Pacific China is building 1 GW of fossil fuel power plants per week Diminished mountain snowpak will reduce water supplies Impacts residential, commercial, agriculture, and energy production DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 6 Climate change could prove disastrous for our nation’s levees Mauer Rising sea levels combined with “wetter” storms will likely cause levee failures DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 7 Increases in California temperatures will cause decreases in crop productivity DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 8 Regional Climate Summary • Climate modeling at the global and regional scale is critical to understanding California’s climate change impacts and forming strategies in adaptation and mitigation – Resolving the important processes driving climate change is important – New science understanding is important • Climate models (as always) depend on quality observations – Evaluate, diagnosis, analyze, and improve • Climate change will strongly impact California’s future in air quality, water resources, and agriculture (also human health, and others) • A partnership across Federal, State, and Academic institutions is required to make progress in understanding and addressing climate change at the regional and local scale • As Charlie Kennel said – Its global, its regional, and its local DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 9 Backup • Backup DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 10 Climate simulation/analysis focuses more and more on regional issues • Why? • Because humans and natural regional, not global, climate; ecosystems experience • Because improvements in climate models make meaningful regional projections possible • Regional climate changes will determine societal impacts and drive climate-related policy decisions Water availability Del Valle Dam, Lake and Agriculture Watershed. Extreme events Recreation DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 11 Human health Air quality Regional models can represent major characteristics of California’s precipitation patterns DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 12 Irrigation database over California is a subcounty resolution Data for 2000 Developed by Food and Agriculture Organization and David Lobell DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 13 % irrigation 100 0 River flow measurements show changes in runoff timings during the 20th century – is this climate change? • Rivers depending on snowmelt show earlier flow patterns • Rivers dependent on precipitation show later flow patterns Trends in SP (1948-2000) Center time Spring pulse DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 14 Cayan et al., Bull. AMS. 2001; Stewart et al., J Clim., 2005