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California’s enormous computing resources allow climate
simulations at unprecedented resolution capturing
California’s regional climate phenomena
50Km resolution
9 Km resolution
Target Resolutions
Global: 15 Km
Duffy and Taylor
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 1
Regional: 1 Km
California’s complex terrain drives the need for
high resolution climate models
Wintertime precipitation rate
Duffy
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 2
Local forcings (such as irrigation) are critical
to understanding local climate change
Annual irrigation data
Observed
trends
Data for 2000
Developed by Food and
Agriculture Organization and
David Lobell
Degree C
Winter
Natural variability and trends in
California temperature records
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 3
Spring
natural internal variability
(from model simulations)
Summer
Fall
Federal, State, and academic partnerships are
key to making progress in regional climate
• Federal
– DOE – energy use impacts on regional climate
• DOE Program on climate simulation diagnosis and analysis
• Large compute resources
– NOAA – climate prediction mission
• Existing regional climate assessment centers via RISA program
– NASA – Earth science R&D and satellite observations
• Modeling analysis and data assimilation; large compute resources
• State
– CEC – Energy and climate research in CA
• Funding climate change research (regional climate, impacts, adaptation,
inventory methods, emission reductions, …) since 2003 ($6M/year)
• Leadership in CA Biennial Assessment
– CARB – implementation of AB32
• Universities
• Innovative models and modeling approaches (e.g., parameterizations)
• Ground based observation stations and modeling analysis
• Educating next generation of researchers
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 4
Aerosols transported across the Pacific are dramatically
impacting California’s air quality standards
1950 - 1990
l
N. America: SO2 decreased from 41% to 17%.
l
Asia: SO2 increased from 7% to 37%.
1970
1950
CameronSmith
2%
2% 7%
21 %
28 %
41 %
34 %
4%
26 %
2%
13 %
18 %
1%
T otal: 30.2 T gS
1980
18 %
1%
T otal: 56.6 T gS
1990
4%
4%
17 %
26 %
5%
5%
37 %
17 %
21 %
1%
25 %
T otal: 59.0 T gS
Africa
Oceania
Asia
FSU
1%
19 %
T otal: 70.4 T gS
Europe
L America
N America
Regional percentage of fossil fuel SO2
emissions (Dignon)
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 5
Currently 25% of PM2.5 limits in CA are caused
by aerosol transported from across the Pacific
China is building 1 GW of fossil fuel power plants per week
Diminished mountain snowpak will reduce
water supplies
Impacts residential, commercial, agriculture, and energy production
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 6
Climate change could prove disastrous for
our nation’s levees
Mauer
Rising sea levels combined
with “wetter” storms will
likely cause levee failures
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 7
Increases in California temperatures will
cause decreases in crop productivity
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 8
Regional Climate Summary
• Climate modeling at the global and regional scale is critical to
understanding California’s climate change impacts and forming
strategies in adaptation and mitigation
– Resolving the important processes driving climate change is important
– New science understanding is important
• Climate models (as always) depend on quality observations
– Evaluate, diagnosis, analyze, and improve
• Climate change will strongly impact California’s future in air quality,
water resources, and agriculture (also human health, and others)
• A partnership across Federal, State, and Academic institutions is
required to make progress in understanding and addressing climate
change at the regional and local scale
• As Charlie Kennel said – Its global, its regional, and its local
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 9
Backup
• Backup
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 10
Climate simulation/analysis focuses more and
more on regional issues
• Why?
• Because humans and natural
regional, not global, climate;
ecosystems
experience
• Because improvements in climate models make meaningful
regional projections possible
• Regional climate changes will determine societal impacts and
drive climate-related policy decisions
Water
availability
Del Valle Dam, Lake and
Agriculture
Watershed.
Extreme events
Recreation
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 11
Human health
Air quality
Regional models can represent major characteristics of
California’s precipitation patterns
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 12
Irrigation database over California is a subcounty resolution
Data for 2000
Developed by Food
and Agriculture
Organization and
David Lobell
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 13
% irrigation
100
0
River flow measurements show changes in runoff timings
during the 20th century – is this climate change?
• Rivers depending on
snowmelt show earlier flow
patterns
• Rivers dependent on
precipitation show later
flow patterns
Trends in SP (1948-2000)
Center
time
Spring
pulse
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 14
Cayan et al., Bull. AMS. 2001;
Stewart et al., J Clim., 2005