Download Range of reductions for Annex 1

CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER
CONSULTATIONS
Post-2012 Negotiations
29 OCTOBER 2007
BOGOR : Some progress?
Summitry showing results
Elements of Bali roadmap clear
Linkage of Kyoto Protocol and
Convention “tracks” inevitable
Idea of a long-term global goal
More openness over developing
country “contributions”
2
BALI ROAD MAP for post 2012
agreement
• Four core issues: mitigation,
adaptation, technology, finance
• Plus others: deforestation, impact of
response measures, SD PAMs
(sustainable development policies and
measures), carbon markets
• Recognition of non UNFCCC
processes?
3
Questions
• Elements of the road map?
• 2009 end date?
• A single negotiation or two tracks –
Kyoto and Convention?
• If two, what linkages/conditionalities?
• Input from non UNFCCC processes?
(G8, MEM, APEC etc)
4
Ad-hoc Working Group
(AWG)
AWG: work programme
(a) Analysis of mitigation potentials and
ranges of emission reduction
objectives of Annex 1 Parties
(b) Analysis of possible means to
achieve mitigation objectives
6
AWG: work programme (c)
• Scale of emission reductions to be
achieved by Annex 1 Parties in
aggregate and
• allocation of the corresponding
mitigation effort, and
• agreement on their further
commitments
7
AWG: Indicative range for Annex 1
in aggregate
• 25 – 40% below 1990 (by 2020) may
be discussed at Bali
• Iteration between (a), (b) and (c) of
work programme
8
AWG: The Science (1)
• IPCC AR4
• To avoid some of the most extreme
impacts of climate change, increase in
global mean temperature needs to be
limited to no more than 2 – 3 deg C
• This requires stabilisation below about
560 ppm CO2e
9
AWG: The Science (2)
• 80% chance of staying below 3 deg C
if GHG concentrations are stabilised at
less than 445ppm CO2e
• But with stabilisation at 560 ppm
CO2e, there is a 50% chance of
exceeding 3 deg C
10
AWG: The Science (3)
To achieve stabilisation at 445-490ppm
CO2e would require that by 2020:
• Emissions from Annex 1 as a whole
were 25 – 40% below 1990 levels, and
• There was substantial deviation from
baseline for emissions in LA, ME, EA
and Centrally-planned Asia.
11
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (1)
• What does the science suggest that
the range should be?
12
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (2)
Not necessary that all Annex 1 Parties’
commitments are within the indicative
range
• Comparable effort and equitable
burden sharing
• Easier/harder for New Zealand than
other Annex 1 countries?
13
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (3)
• Implications of extent of participation
and extent of coverage eg. avoided
deforestation, bunker fuels, ….
• Possible range for international
Carbon price
14
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (4)
Cost to New Zealand
• Implications of possible changes to
LULUCF rules
• Level of sequestration in Kyoto forests
around 2020, 2030
• Length of commitment period
15
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (5)
• Direct cost to New Zealand
businesses/households, upper bound:
commitment x international Carbon
price
• Impact on national economic welfare
(NZ commitment, international Carbon
price, trade effects, …..)
16
AWG: Possible conditions that could
be attached to New Zealand support
for a particular indicative range (1)
Generic
• Very high probability that the final
package will achieve stabilisation at
the target concentration ie. sufficient
coverage of emissions – activities and
countries – with sufficient commitment
to sufficient reductions
17
AWG: Possible conditions that could
be attached to New Zealand support
for a particular indicative range (2)
Or specific
• Inclusion of as many activities as
possible
• Participation of all Annex 1 Parties
• Flexibility mechanisms are available
• Annex 1 mitigation via flex. mechs. is
additional to “substantial deviation ….”
18
AWG: Possible conditions that could
be attached to New Zealand support
for a particular indicative range (3)
• Effects of changes to LULUCF rules
taken into account
• Indirect trade effects taken into
account
• Fair burden sharing
19
Other Issues: Russian Proposal
• streamlining inclusion into Annex I
• Convention voluntary commitments
New Zealand position
• supports new agenda item/s for these
issues
• joining Annex I should be simple; tacit
acceptance
• Voluntary commitments one of elements in
post-2012 considerations
20
Other issues: Kyoto Protocol
2nd Review
• 2nd Review at CMP4; Bali = scope and content
• 1st Review inadequate; link to AWG and post-2012
New Zealand position
• Basis = best science & other information
• Process: prepare during 2008; distinct, clear, timedefined; links to other processes
• Scope: LULUCF rules, streamlining A1 inclusion,
CDM, nature of commitments (type, length)
21
Other Issues: Avoided
Deforestation (1)
• SBSTA 27 agenda item 5: Reducing
emissions from deforestation in developing
countries: approaches to stimulate action
• Emissions from deforestation are roughly
20% of global emissions.
• Widely recognised as a major area to be
addressed in any future global climate
change action
22
Avoided Deforestation (2)
•
•
•
Process to date
– In March 2007, Australia and New Zealand co-hosted/funded the
second workshop on this issue in Cairns, Australia.
– At SBSTA 26 a conclusion could not reached. The draft decision
will continue to be negotiated at SBSTA 27 (Bali).
– SBSTA 26 invited Parties to make submissions.
Key issues of debate
– Scope
– Fund
– Market based
Other issues
– Baselines (local, regional, national), additionality, permanence,
leakage, monitoring.
23
Avoided Deforestation (3)
•
•
NZ’s position
–
Action is needed
–
Mechanism requires sufficient money to address issue
–
As such fund idea has weaknesses
–
Technical issues can be addressed
–
How does this ‘fit into’ the wider processes?
–
What implications for emissions reductions targets?
Possible outcomes from Bali
24
Agriculture: International leadership
• NZ Government investing $1M p.a. on
international collaboration on agriculture
and forestry climate change research
• Major first step is establishment of Livestock
Emissions and Abatement Research
Network (LEARN)
25
Agriculture: LEARN
• NZ establishing website for LEARN
• Proposed that NZ act as administrator of
LEARN
• Exploring possible research secondment
programme
• Will look to co-host and sponsor future
activities under LEARN – workshops,
conferences, exchanges
26
Agriculture: Next steps
• GGAA3 – conference to be held in NZ in November
this year
• NZ sponsoring attendance of developing countries
at GGAA3 and inaugural LEARN meeting
– At least 20 countries will attend LEARN meeting
including: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India,
Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Mexico,
Canada, Ireland, UK, Switzerland, Ukraine,
France, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand
27
Agriculture: Bali
• Presentation on Non-CO2 ghgs in
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technological Advice (SBSTA)
• Advertise LEARN and associated activities
• Continue to engage with Parties on
agriculture
28