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Regional Climate Modeling:
A Tool for Decision-Makers
Eugene S. Takle
Agronomy Department
Geological and Atmospheric Science
Department
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Institute for Science and Society
Iowa State University
4 May 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline
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Evidence for global climate change
Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
Simulations of global climate and future climate
change
Implications for stream flow and
nutrient loss
International collaboration for understanding
water and energy cycles
Summary
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2004
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2040
2004
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
Associated Climate Changes
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Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change
Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic
Growth
Slower Economic
Growth
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers
 An
increasing body of observations gives a
collective picture of a warming world and
other changes in the climate system
 Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols
due to human activities continue to
alter the atmosphere in ways that
are expected to affect the climate
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Confidence
in the ability of models to
project future climate has increased
 There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Confidence
in the ability of models to
project future climate has increased
 There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Confidence
in the ability of models to
project future climate has increased
 There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Anthropogenic
climate change will persist
for many centuries
 Further action is required to address
remaining gaps in information and
understanding
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/38.htm
Climate Surprises
 Breakdown
of the ocean thermohaline
circulation (Greenland melt water)
 Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Antarctica
Greenland
0
Cold
Warm
Climate
Regional Climate Change
for the US Midwest
 Observed
and projected changes in
climate
 Impact on water quantity and water
quality
 Policy implications
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For the Midwest
Warming will be greater for winter than summer
 Warming will be greater at night than during the
day
 A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave
 Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950)
 More precipitation
 Likely more soil moisture in summer
 More rain will come in intense rainfall events
 Higher stream flow, more flooding
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Sub-Basins of the
Upper Mississippi
River Basin
119 sub-basins
Outflow measured
at Grafton, IL
Approximately one
observing station
per sub-basin
Approximately one
model grid point
per sub-basin
Soil Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT)
Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model
(Arnold et al,1998)
 Assesses impacts of climate and management on
yields of water, sediment, and agricultural chemicals
 Physically based, including hydrology, soil
temperature, plant growth, nutrients,
pesticides and land management
 Daily time steps
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
SWAT Output with Various Sources
of Climate Input
Validation of SWAT:
Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Validation of SWAT:
Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
RegCM2 Simulation Domain
Red = global model grid point
Green/blue = regional model grid points
Annual Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT
Driven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate
Model with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
Mean Monthly Precipitation Simulated by
the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model
with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
Seasonal Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT
Driven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate
Model with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
“Warming Hole”
˚C
DTmax (JJA)
Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the RegCM2
Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2
Global Model Results for the Contemporary and
Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the
RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven
with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the
Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under
Climate Change with Various Model Biases
Relation of Runoff to Precipitation
for Various Climates
Regional Climate Modeling for
Informing Policy on Water Quality
 How
does the combination of climate
change and land use impact water quality?
 Use nitrates and sediment as indicators
 What alternative land management
strategies will improve water quality?
 What policies need to be
implemented to achieve this water
quality improvement?
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Maquoketa Watershed
Scenario 1: all Agriculture
Scenario 2: all Forest
Scenario 3: N. half Agric.
and S. half Forest.
Scenario 4: S. half Agric.
and N. half Forest.
Scenario 5: Upper half Agric.
and lower half Forest.
Scenario 6: Lower half Agric.
and upper half Forest.
Scenario 7: Main channel
basins - Agric.
Scenario 8: Main channel
basins - Forest.
Fractional changes in mean annual flow and yield under various scenarios normalized by the
fractional change in area from all-agricultural for the scenario.
Scenario
1995 (normal year)
1993 (wet year)
1988 (dry year)
Flow
Sediment yield
Nitrate
Scenario
1
-
-
-
Scenario
2
-0.01
1.00
0.99
Scenario
3
-0.02
0.42
0.52
Scenario
4
0.00
0.55
0.48
Scenario
5
-0.03
0.75
0.60
Scenario
6
0.03
0.21
0.40
Scenario
7
-0.02
0.68
0.74
Scenario
8
0.02
0.28
0.25
Fractional changes in mean annual flow and yield under various scenarios normalized by the
fractional change in area from all-agricultural for the scenario.
Scenario
1995 (normal year)
1993 (wet year)
1988 (dry year)
Flow
Sediment yield
Nitrate
Scenario
1
-
-
-
Scenario
2
-0.01
1.00
0.99
Scenario
3
-0.02
0.42
0.52
Scenario
4
0.00
0.55
0.48
Scenario
5
-0.03
0.75
0.60
Scenario
6
0.03
0.21
0.40
Scenario
7
-0.02
0.68
0.74
Scenario
8
0.02
0.28
0.25
Improving Regional Climate Models
 Project
to Intercompare Regional Climate
Simulations
 Transferability Working Group of GEWEX
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Project to Intercompare Regional
Climate Simulations (PIRCS)
PIRCS Mission
To provide a common framework for evaluating
strengths and weaknesses of regional climate
models and their component procedures through
systematic, comparative simulations
PIRCS Co-Directors
Ray Arritt [email protected]
Bill Gutowski [email protected]
Gene Takle [email protected]
http://www.pircs.iastate.edu/
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PIRCS Participating Groups
 Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)
 Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)
 Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)
 NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)
 NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)
 CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)
 Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)
 Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)
 Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)
 Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)
 SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)
 NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)
 ETH (D. Luethi)
 Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)
 Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)
 Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)
 St. Louis University (Z. Pan)
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
La Plata
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
OBJECTIVES
• Determine the hydrological cycle and energy
fluxes by means of global measurements of
observable atmospheric and surface properties.
• Model the global hydrological cycle and its
impact on the atmosphere, oceans, and on the
land surface.
• Develop the ability to predict the variations of global and regional hydrological processes
and water resources, and their response to environmental change.
• Foster the development of observing techniques, data management, and assimiliation
systems suitable for operational application to long-range weather forecasts, hydrology, and
climate predictions.
Phase II Primary Science Questions
Updated GEWEX Science Questions :
1. Are the Earth’s Energy Budget and Water
Cycle Changing?
Is the Water Cycle Accelerating?
2. How do Processes Contribute to Feedback and
Causes of Natural Variability?
3. Can We Predict these Changes on up to S - IA?
4. What are the Impacts of these Changes
on Water Resources?
Data
Management
Water and
Energy Budget
Studies
GAME
Water
Resource
Applications
Project
Sources and
Cycling of
Water
Extremes
Predictability
Transferability
CEOP
IAEA
Summary
Regional climate models demonstrate
sufficient skill to be useful for driving
some climate impacts assessment
models for the purpose of informing
policy makers and decision-makers of
vulnerabilities and opportunities
associated with future climate change
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information
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See my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
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Contact me directly:
[email protected]
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS