Download Met 10

MET 112
MET 112 Global Climate Change:
Controls on Climate Change
(IPCC Report)
Professor Menglin Jin
Outline:
 IPCC
 CA Efforts on Energy
 Kyoto Treat
1
The UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change
‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate
system. Such a level should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner’
MET 112
3
Figure: Courtesy of IPCC
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report
Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
Drafted by a team of 59
Approved ‘sentence by sentence’
by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)
14 chapters
881 pages
120 Lead Authors
515 Contributing Authors
4621 References quoted
IPCC Assessment Report
MET 112
 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
– Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).
– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing
(cooling)
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
on global climate”
(IPCC) 1997
"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities .“
(IPCC), 2001
The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heattrapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century.
(IPCC) 2007
7
Human Responsibility for
Climate Change
MET 112
The IPCC finds that it is “very likely”
that emissions of heat-trapping gases
from human activities have caused
“most of the observed increase in
globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century.”
8
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Emission Scenarios
MET 112

10
SRES (special report on emission scenarios)
Scenarios
MET 112
11
CO2 concentrations (amount)
MET 112
12
Model Sensitivity
MET 112
 Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive
systems.
 They can respond differently to the same
radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2
– This means that different models give
different answers to the same problem
– Thus, we use a range of models to determine
the range of possible future scenarios.
13
Future Predictions: Temperature
MET 112
14
Notes on Temperature Projections
MET 112
 Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from
~1.4°C to ~5.8°C.
 Curves represent warming produced for seven
scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.
 Each bar on right represent range of warming
produced
– by models of differing sensitivities for a
specific scenario.
15
Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
MET 112
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
16
Some areas are projected to become wetter,
others drier with an overall increase projected
MET 112
Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 17
Sea Level
MET 112
18
Sea Level Rise
MET 112
Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 19
MET 112
21
MET 112
22
Tons of CO2 emitted per person
MET 112
23
US CO2 Emissions
MET 112
 Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons
 ~ 22 metric tons per person




Industry: 35%
Transportation: 33%
Residences: 18%
Commercial: 14%
 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)
25
Average US Personal Energy Use
(Per Person)
MET 112
Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month
Natural Gas: 15 therms per month
Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month
Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month
Total:
Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2
Kyoto allowance (for US):
~11,000 pounds
To stabilize climate (550ppm)
4,700 pounds
26
Mitigation of climate change
MET 112
 Mitigation:
– Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative
environmental impacts.
Mitigation can include:
• avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action;
• minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or
magnitude of the action;
• rectifying the impact by repairing or
restoring the affected environment
27
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted
in Kyoto, Japan,
on 11 December 1997 and
entered into force on
16 February 2005
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding
targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community
for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels
over the five-year period 2008-2012.
The Kyoto Protocol

MET 112
A United Nations sponsored effort:
– Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by
industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels.
– The Protocol will go into force after
1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55
countries.
2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global
greenhouse gas emissions.
– Current status:
 191 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global
CO2.
 US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for
36% of CO2 emitted)
 Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005
29
Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
MET 112
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
30
MET 112
31
Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
MET 112
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
32
MET 112
33
Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
MET 112
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
34
MET 112
35
Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
MET 112
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
36
MET 112
Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
43
Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
–
MET 112
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
Encourage ‘good practices’
45
Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
MET 112
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
Encourage ‘good practices’
Cut GHG from aviation
48
Kyoto Targets
MET 112

Industrialized countries will reduce their collective
emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990
 Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010
without the Protocol, this target represents ~30%
cut).
 Calculated as an average
– over the five-year period of 2008-12.
 Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride,
HFCs, and PFCs
49
MET 112
 HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons
 PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful
greenhouse gas emitted during the production
of aluminumPFC
50
Kyoto Targets
MET 112
 National targets
– European Union - 8% below 1990 levels
– USA - 7% below 1990
– Japan - 6% below 1990
– Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels)
– Australia 8% over 1990 levels)
– Developing countries (no target)
 China, India etc.
51
Kyoto Targets: Developing countries
MET 112

The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:
1. The largest share of historical and current global
emissions of greenhouse gases
– has originated in developed countries;
2. Per capita emissions in developing countries
– are still relatively low;
3. The share of global emissions originating in
developing countries
– will grow to meet their social and development
needs.
52
The Kyoto Mechanisms
MET 112
 Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets
primarily through national measures. However, the
Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of
meeting their targets by way of three market-based
mechanisms.




The Kyoto mechanisms are:
Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"
Clean development mechanism (CDM)
Joint implementation (JI).
53
Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms
MET 112

Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide
reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012

Countries can meet their commitments together

Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet
their emission reduction targets.

Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to
achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases
and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets

Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’
54
Emissions Trading




MET 112
Each country has an emission limit.
If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may
purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the
open market) who are under their limit.
This financially rewards countries that meet their
targets.
Countries also receive carbon credits through
– clean energy programs (i.e. greentags)
– carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)
55
Main reasons the US did not sign the Kyoto Protocol?
Economic burden
No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)
Protocol is not going to help much
"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first
things first are the people who live in America"
- President Bush
Solutions - government
MET 112
Kyoto Protocol
California potential leader
61
MET 112
63
MET 112
64
Solutions - personal

Transportation

Home

Food

Consumption
MET 112
www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint
65
Four R’s
MET 112
1. Rethink
2. Reduce
3. Reuse
4. Recycle
66
MET 112
67