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Combating Climate Change: Where Do We Go From Here? Daniel Bodansky University of Georgia January 18, 2007 Phases in the development of the climate change regime Foundational (1957-1985) Agenda-setting (1985-1990) – Development of scientific interest – Development of political interest Constitutional (1991-1995) Regulatory (1995-present) Foundational period Revelle/Seuss article, 1957 – “Humans are now carrying on a large-scale geophysical experiment” Keeling Curve Foundational period Development of scientific concern – 1963 Conservation Foundation report: • “It is estimated that a doubling of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere would produce a temperature rise of 3.8 degrees C.” – 1979 NAS report: • “There is no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible” Agenda-setting, 1985-1990 Development of political interest – Role of scientific knowledge brokers • 1985 Villach meeting • 1988 Villach and Bellagio meetings – Role of environmental politics • 1987 Brundtland Commission report • Discovery of ozone hole • US Congressional hearings – Role of sudden shocks • 1988 heat wave in North America Agenda-setting Development of political interest – Role of scientific knowledge brokers • 1985 Villach meeting • 1988 Villach and Bellagio meetings – Role of environmental politics • 1987 Brundtland Commission report • Discovery of ozone hole • US Congressional hearings – Role of sudden shocks • 1988 heat wave in North America Agenda-setting Development of political interest – Role of scientific knowledge brokers • 1985 Villach meeting • 1988 Villach and Bellagio meetings – Role of environmental politics • 1987 Brundtland Commission report • Discovery of ozone hole • US Congressional hearings – Role of sudden shocks • 1988 heat wave in North America Agenda-setting Development of political interest – Role of scientific knowledge brokers • 1985 Villach meeting • 1988 Villach and Bellagio meetings – Role of environmental politics • 1987 Brundtland Commission report • Discovery of ozone hole • US Congressional hearings – Role of sudden shocks • 1988 heat wave in North America Agenda-setting Development of political interest – Role of scientific knowledge brokers • 1985 Villach meeting • 1988 Villach and Bellagio meetings – Role of environmental politics • 1987 Brundtland Commission report • Discovery of ozone hole • US Congressional hearings – Role of sudden shocks • 1988 heat wave in North America 1988 Development of International Climate Change Regime 1988 1992 1997 2001 2005 Kyoto entry into force IPCC established Framework Convention (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol Marrakech Conference Scientific assessment Non-binding aim Binding emissions target Agreement on Kyoto rules Negotiating Constants Major Blocs Basic positions – EU – Binding emission reduction targets – [Top-down regulation / Limited flexibility] – US – Concern about economic costs – Maximum flexibility • Domestic choice of policies and measures • Market mechanisms (emissions trading) – Developing country participation – G-77 – No emission targets for developing countries – Financial and technological assistance Framework Convention/Protocol Approach Allows states to proceed incrementally Framework convention establishes general system of governance Specific obligations developed in protocols Elements of the UNFCCC Objective and principles Obligations Institutions Implementation mechanisms UNFCCC: Objective and principles Objective: stabilization of GHG concentrations at safe levels Principles – Equity – Common but differentiated responsibilities • Industrialized countries must take the lead – Precautionary principle – Cost-effectiveness UNFCCC: Obligations All countries – GHG inventories – National strategies and measures – Reporting Industrialized countries (listed in Annex I) – Return emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 Western industrialized countries (Annex II) – Financial assistance to developing countries UNFCCC: Institutions Conference of the Parties (COP) Meets yearly Secretariat Science Advisory Body (SBSTA) Financial Global Envt. Mechanism = Facility (GEF) Implementation Body (SBI) UNFCCC Scorecard UNFCCC establishes basic framework But no binding emission reduction targets Instead, non-binding aim to return emissions to 1990 levels by year 2000 Post-Rio – Institutions up and running – First round of reporting and review COP1, Berlin, 1995 – COP to periodically review obligations of parties, Art. 7.2(a) – Review of adequacy of FCCC, Art. 4.2(d) • Existing targets inadequate – Berlin Mandate: to negotiate additional commitments for developed countries COP 3, Kyoto, 1997 Kyoto Protocol: Basic Elements Binding emission targets for each developed country – US: -7% – EU: -8% – Japan: -6% – Russia: 0% Compared to 1990 levels Applies to five-year commitment period, 2008-2012 Kyoto Protocol Scorecard: EU Targets/US Architecture Tough US emissions target No emission targets for developing countries But US won longsought-after architecture: flexible, market-oriented – Emissions trading – Credit for reducing emissions in developing countries – Credit for carbon sinks Fleshing Out Kyoto Kyoto defined the basic architecture ......But most of the detailed rules still needed to be agreed – How market mechanisms will work – How to include carbon “sinks” (forests and farmlands) – Compliance system Demands by developing countries for money, technology Bringing Kyoto into Effect Kyoto rules finalized in 2001 at COP-7: Marrakech Accords Marrakesh Accords No quantitative limits on emissions trading Significant credits (removal units, or RMU) for forest and cropland management Caps on CDM credits for sink activities, and no credits for avoided deforestation under the CDM Where are we now? Growing scientific concern Weak global response – Although Kyoto has entered into force, won’t have much effect on global emissions – Reluctance to negotiate for post-2012 period But growing activities at other levels – EU emissions trading system – State and local initiatives in US – Growing carbon market Annex 1 countries with targets 30% Countries without/rejecting targets 70% Year 2000 emissions, 6 gases, Source: WRI/CAIT The climate change regime: An environmentalist scorecard Where are we heading? Kyoto’s first commitment period will end in 2012 Post-2012 discussions – Convention dialogue – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments – Review of the Kyoto Protocol 40+ proposals for future climate change effort Prevailing approach: Climate change a collective action problem Country Y States are unitary actors, rational utility maximizers Cooperative outcome leaves everyone better off Abate Pollute Country X – Each state has an individual incentive to pollute – But if each state pollutes, leaves everyone worse off +1 Abate +1 +2 -2 -2 Pollute +2 -1 -1 Prevailing approach: Climate change a collective action problem Issue: How to achieve the cooperative outcome? – Encourage states to participate • US: address concern about high costs • Developing countries: address concerns that climate commitments could limit economic development – Provide assurance of compliance But is “collective action” the right frame? On climate change, many of key players don’t want binding targets – US, India, [China], [Brazil] Fundamental shift – No longer primarily a collective action problem … Instead, problem of domestic politics – lack of political will Lessons learned Top-down vs. Bottom-Up Kyoto’s approach top-down – Start with international agreement. – This will put pressure on states to act But all politics are local – Domestic usually drives international, rather than vice versa > Bottom-up approach: International action should grow out of, rather than precede, domestic action How to proceed? An institutionalist perspective Issue: how to remove “inefficiencies,” exploit whatever political will exists Possible strategies: – Reduce transaction costs – Give countries flexibility through bottomup approach – Address concerns about high mitigation costs How to proceed? A constructivist perspective Issue: how to raise level of political will? Possible strategies – International leadership – Development-oriented approaches How to proceed? A more variable geometry Kyoto club: targets and timetables Continued developments at state and local level, and by industry – linkages of trading systems US develops domestic program, involving cap-and-trade with safety valve – Builds out through arrangements with other countries Looser coordination internationally