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Transcript
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries Presentation by Svein Tveitdal and Frank Turyatunga Oslo September 18 2007 Focus on Poverty Uneven Record of Success China, India and other places in Southeast Asia have experienced significant progress in poverty reduction while others have been left behind Dilemma “We have the right to do as you – use cheap (fossil) energy to bring us out of poverty – and clean up afterwards” poor countries about the rich How much must emissions be reduced Action now decides the temperature in 2100 2 degrees C - a warming we can live with More than this can get the development out of control Stabilization goal ≤ 500 ppm CO2 equivalents Scientists: Emissions to be reduced by 50-85% by 2050 (1990 base line) Uncertainty and conservatism in the projections of the IPCC projections Precautionary principle might require a reduction target on 80 % by 2050 Distribution of emission reductions Rich counytries more than poor countries independent of target 80% global reduction target: Annex 1 ≥ 90 % Non Annex 1 ≤ 70 % Regions most affected: •The Arctic •Sub-Saharan Africa •Small islands •Asian megadeltas OBSERVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN UGANDA INCREASED INTENSITY OF DROUGHTS MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE FLOODS CHANGES TO TRADITIONAL GROWING SEASONS MORE FREQUENT CROP FAILURES INCREASED VULNERABILITY OF COMMUNITIES FREQUENT AND INTENSE FLOODS LOSS OF LIVELIHOODS (CURRENTLY 400,000 AFFECTED) DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE, REDUCED MOBILITY, LIMITED ACCESS TO AID (CURRENTLY OVER 150,000 AFFECTED AND GROWING) WATER-BORNE DISEASES ON THE INCREASE (CHOLERA, TYPHOID, DYSENTRY) VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES (MALARIA MORE THAN DOUBLED) FLOODS IN NORTHERN UGANDA (14.09.07) DAMAGED BRIDGES RELIEF FAILS TO GO THROUGH TO PEOPLE INCREASED TERMITE ACTIVITY IN RANGELANDS SNOW MELT CHANGING INTERNATIONAL BORDERS IN CONTESTED AREA – RIVER SEMLIKI/LAKE ALBERT IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT LOWERING GDP AFFECTING TOURISM (MT. RWENZORI MELTING GLACIERS, FIRES IN PAs) EFFECTS ON POWER GENERATION (50% OF HEP LOST, LOWEST LAKE VICTORIA LEVELS IN 83 YEARS) UNDERMINING GAINS IN POVERTY REDUCTION A CHALLENGE TO FORWARD-LOOKING PLANNING STRAIN ON AVAILABLE MEAGRE RESOURCES LIKELY TO INCREASE DEPENDENCY PROPOSED APPROACH REDUCTION OF PEOPLE’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES MORE SENSE SUPPORT REACTIVE POLICIES THAT STRENGTHEN PREVENTIVE OPTIONS UTILISE THE POWER OF INFORMATION!
