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Impact of Climate Change
in Developing Countries
Presentation by
Svein Tveitdal and Frank Turyatunga
Oslo September 18 2007
Focus on Poverty
Uneven Record of Success
China, India and other places in Southeast Asia have experienced significant
progress in poverty reduction while others have been left behind
Dilemma
“We have the right to do as you – use cheap
(fossil) energy to bring us out of poverty – and
clean up afterwards”
poor countries about the rich
How much must emissions be
reduced
 Action now decides the temperature in 2100
 2 degrees C - a warming we can live with
 More than this can get the development out of
control
 Stabilization goal ≤ 500 ppm CO2 equivalents
 Scientists: Emissions to be reduced by 50-85%
by 2050 (1990 base line)
 Uncertainty and conservatism in the
projections of the IPCC projections
 Precautionary principle might require a
reduction target on 80 % by 2050
Distribution of emission
reductions
Rich counytries more than poor countries
independent of target
80% global reduction target:
Annex 1
≥ 90 %
Non Annex 1
≤ 70 %
Regions most affected:
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•The Arctic
•Sub-Saharan Africa
•Small islands
•Asian megadeltas
OBSERVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN UGANDA
INCREASED INTENSITY OF DROUGHTS
MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE FLOODS
CHANGES TO TRADITIONAL GROWING SEASONS
MORE FREQUENT CROP FAILURES
INCREASED VULNERABILITY OF COMMUNITIES
FREQUENT AND INTENSE FLOODS
LOSS OF LIVELIHOODS (CURRENTLY 400,000 AFFECTED)
DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE, REDUCED MOBILITY, LIMITED ACCESS
TO AID (CURRENTLY OVER 150,000 AFFECTED AND GROWING)
WATER-BORNE DISEASES ON THE INCREASE (CHOLERA, TYPHOID,
DYSENTRY)
VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES (MALARIA MORE THAN DOUBLED)
FLOODS IN NORTHERN UGANDA (14.09.07)
DAMAGED BRIDGES
RELIEF FAILS TO GO THROUGH TO PEOPLE
INCREASED TERMITE ACTIVITY IN RANGELANDS
SNOW MELT CHANGING INTERNATIONAL BORDERS IN
CONTESTED AREA – RIVER SEMLIKI/LAKE ALBERT
IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
LOWERING GDP
AFFECTING TOURISM (MT. RWENZORI MELTING GLACIERS, FIRES IN PAs)
EFFECTS ON POWER GENERATION (50% OF HEP LOST, LOWEST LAKE VICTORIA LEVELS IN 83
YEARS)
UNDERMINING GAINS IN POVERTY REDUCTION
A CHALLENGE TO FORWARD-LOOKING PLANNING
STRAIN ON AVAILABLE MEAGRE RESOURCES
LIKELY TO INCREASE DEPENDENCY
PROPOSED APPROACH
REDUCTION OF PEOPLE’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE
CHANGE MAKES MORE SENSE
SUPPORT REACTIVE POLICIES THAT STRENGTHEN PREVENTIVE
OPTIONS
UTILISE THE POWER OF INFORMATION!