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Transcript
Climate Change Science, Causes and
Impacts
TACC Training Module 2
1
Objectives of the Module



Introduce scientific concepts and findings relevant
for understanding climate change
Highlight observed and projected impacts of
climate change on natural and human systems
Introduce organizations that can provide scientific
information on climate change
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Overview




Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of
Climate Change
Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate
Change
Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate
Change
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
The Importance of Climate Change Science

Climate change science allows us to:
 Understand
how and why the climate is changing
 Assess how humans are influencing the climate
 Project how climate may change in the future
 Prepare for possible future changes
 Enact policies and modify behaviors to prevent damage
“The more we know about a subject…the more likely our conclusions
about it are to be true”
Naomi Oreskes, 2008
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Why is Climate Change Science Important
from a Sub-national Perspective?

Sound weather data and forecasts
important for:






Short-term planning (e.g. harvests)
Emergency response
(e.g. preparedness for extreme events)
Climate models help to forecast long term
climate scenarios at the territorial level
Important input for vulnerability assessments and adaptation
planning
Fosters climate resilient development and avoids mal-adaption
Important to build up climate change science capacity at the subnational level
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
Source:
IPCC
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Complexity of the Global Climate System
Source:
IPCC
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Overview of Natural and Human
Greenhouse Gases


Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gases in the atmosphere that
absorb and emit radiation
GHGs naturally blanket the earth and keep it about 33 degrees
Celsius warmer than it would be without these gases in the
atmosphere
Greenhouse Gas
Human Source
Water Vapour
Natural Source
Contribution to the
Greenhouse Effect
X
36–72%
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
X
X
9–26%
Methane (CH4)
X
X
4–9%
Ozone
X
X
3–7%
Nitrous Oxide
X
X
Very small
CFC’s
X
Very small
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
The Carbon Cycle: Natural and Human Factors
Source:
UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Global Warming, Climate Change, and
Changing Weather

The difference between Climate and Weather
 Weather
changes in the short term (e.g. daily,
weekly, monthly)
 Climate is average weather and occurs over long
time frames (e.g. 30 years)

Global Warming
 Refers
to the overall warming of the planet, based
on average temperature over the entire surface of
the earth
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Global Warming, Climate Change, and
Changing Weather

Climate Variability
 Refers
to the naturally occurring changing patterns of
the climate from year to year

Climate Change
 Refers
to changes in climate characteristics, including
temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe
weather events over long term periods

Although the climate is warming globally, local
weather patterns may still feature extreme cold
spells ……
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Overview




Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of
Climate Change
Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate
Change
Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate
Change
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Climate Variability Over Time
Source:
Mann et al, 2008
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Observed and Modeled Temperature Change
Source:
UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Examples of Observed Climate Change

Floods


Droughts/heat waves


The frequency of floods has increased
by nearly 300% in the past 30 years
The most extreme three heat
waves/droughts in 50 years occurred
in Europe in 2003, Australia in 2009
and China in 2010
Extreme events/storms

Storms, including hurricanes have been
measured to have increased intensity
since the 1980s
Source: UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Observed Impact: Changes in Physical and
Biological Systems
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Observed Impact: Sea Level Rise
Source:
IPCC
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Observed Impact: Glacier Loss


The annual average
Arctic sea ice extent has
shrunk by 2.7 per cent
each decade, with larger
decreases in summer
Mountain glaciers and
average snow cover have
declined in both
hemispheres.
Source:
UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impact on Ecosystems




Biodiversity: decreases in the forest cover will
lead to loss of species
Carbon stores: thawing of the peat lands and
permafrost will release huge amounts of CO2
Protective function: loss of mangrove forests
leave coastal regions vulnerable to storm
surges
Loss of habitat: warming temperatures on
mountains mean climatic habitats shift in
altitude
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impact on Human Systems

Agriculture
 Loss
of productivity as crops fail in warmer
temperatures mean that between 5 million
and 170 million additional people are
predicted to be at risk of hunger by 2080

Source: FAO Website
Freshwater
 Less
security of water supply as more droughts and less rain
occurs

Health
 Increased/or
changed burden of diseases as tropical
diseases such malaria spread
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impact on Cities



Climate variability (e.g. flooding,
landslides, heat waves, drought and sea
level rise) enhances vulnerability of cities
Will have significant impact on
communities infrastructure, economy and
livelihoods
Urbanization may be accelerated by
climate induced rural-urban migration
Source: Flickr, SixFourG
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Africa
e
Source: UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Asia
Source: UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in
Australia and New Zealand
Source: UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Europe
Source: UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
in Latin America
Source: UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
in North America
Source: UNEP
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate
Change in the Polar Regions

The Arctic

Natural Environment
Reductions in the extent of sea ice
 Increase in seasonal permafrost
thawing
 Increased coastal erosion


Human Environment
Loss of traditional ways of life
 Detrimental impact on infrastructure
 Reduced heating costs


Source:
UNEP
The Antarctic
Reductions in thickness and
extent of glaciers and ice
sheets
 Changes in natural
ecosystems impacting:
 Migratory birds
 Higher predators

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
on Small Islands

Water



Reduce water resources for many small islands due to water table
inundation, reduced rainfall and reduced island size associated with
rising sea levels
Model projections suggest that a 10% reduction in average rainfall
by 2050 is likely to correspond to a 20% reduction in the size of the
freshwater lens on Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
Sea Level Rise


Deterioration in coastal conditions:
 Erosion of beaches
 Storm surge inundation
 Coral bleaching
 Reduce the value of these destinations for tourism
Threatens vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support
the livelihood of island communities
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Projected Long Term Impact on Major
Ecosystems (Beyond 2050)





Loss of the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets
Collapse of the Gulf Stream
Destruction of the Amazon
rainforest
Loss of the boreal forests
Changes to the West African monsoon
and loss of the Indian monsoon
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Economic Implications of Climate Change



Climate change could cost from 5 to 20 percent of global
GDP if no action is taken. Source: Stern Report, 2006
Costs arise from preventing, preparing for and repairing
the damage from climate change impacts
Industries particularly affected
Timber
 Fisheries
 Tourism
 Travel
 Agriculture

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Social Implications of Climate Change



Equity: Climate change will affect
the poorest the most, causing
greater inequality both between
and within countries
Source: UNESCO
Migration: Some estimates suggest that nearly 200 million
people will be displaced from their homes due to climate
change by 2050
Conflict: Increasing level of conflict is expected due to scarcity
of resources and migration
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Scenarios of Future Emissions and
Temperature Increase
Source: IPCC
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
What Emission Reductions are Required to
Protect the Global Climate?
Source: IPCC 2007
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Overview




Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of Climate
Change
Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate
Change
Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate
Change
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Major Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Caused by Humans




Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
CFC’s
Source: IPCC (2007)
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by
Source
Source: IPCC (2007)
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
CO2 Emissions by Country
Source: IPCC (2007)
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
GHG emissions from agriculture
Source: WRI (2005)
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Global CO2 Emissions Trends
Source: NOAA 2012
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Important Greenhouse Gases:
Source: NOAA
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Important Greenhouse Gases:
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Important features
Most important greenhouse gas (77% of all GHG emissions)
 Stays in the atmosphere between 50 – 200 years
 Global Warming Potential of 1


Primary sources
The burning of fossil fuels
 Deforestation and forest degradation
 Iron and steel production


Major sinks:
Oceans
 Forests

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Important Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous
Oxide (N2O)




The fourth most significant greenhouse gas (8% of
GHG emissions)
Stays in the atmosphere for an estimated 114
years
Global Warming Potential of 298
Primary sources:


Fertilizer production and use in agriculture
Major sink:
 Destruction
in the atmosphere
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Important Greenhouse Gases:
Methane (CH4)




Second most significant greenhouse (14% of GHG
emissions)
Stays in the atmosphere for approximately 8 years
Global Warming Potential of 25
Primary sources:
Fossil fuel mining and distribution
 Decomposition of landfill waste
 Ruminant animals (cattle and sheep)
 Rice agriculture


Major sinks

Destruction in the atmosphere
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Important Greenhouse Gases:
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)




The fifth most important group of greenhouse gases
(1% of GHG)
Stay in the atmosphere ranging from 1.5 years to
12,000 years
Global Warming Potential of between 1430 and
14,800
Primary sources:


Most CFC’s and other F gases are manmade for
refrigeration and industrial processes
Major sinks:

Destruction in the atmosphere
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs)

Substances that contribute to global warming and
have relatively short lifetimes in the atmosphere:
 Black
Carbon (BC)
 Methane (CH4)
 Tropospheric Ozone (O3)
 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce SLCP
 Evaluates
16 black carbon and methane mitigation
measures –could reduce global warming between
2010 and 2040 by about 0.4°C
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce
SLCP

Coalition pursues 5 initial clusters of efforts:
 Reducing black carbon emissions from heavy duty
diesel vehicles & engines
 Mitigating SLCPS and other pollutants from brick
production
 Mitigating SLCPS from landfills and municipal solid
waste sector
 Promoting HFC alternative technology and standards
 Accelerating methane and black carbon reductions
from oil and natural gas production
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Overview




Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of Climate
Change
Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate
Change
Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate
Change
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Generating Knowledge on Climate Change:
The IPCC
The IPCC www.ipcc.ch is the leading body for the
assessment of climate change
 Established in 1988 by UNEP and WMO
 Assesses all peer reviewed and published
climate change research and synthesizes the results
 Coordinates global and regional projections for future
climate change
 Analyzes possible adaption and mitigation options
 Was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace prize for its work
along with Al Gore

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Important Reports Published by the IPCC

Assessment reports


Special reports on:




Emission Scenarios
Aviation
Carbon Capture and Storage
Methodology reports




First in 1990, the fourth and most recent published in 2007, fifth report
due October 2014
Guidance for national greenhouse gas inventories
Guidance for assessing impacts of climate change
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
Technical papers



Climate Change and Water
Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations
Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
World Meteorological Organization



The World Climate Programme (WCP)
improves climate understanding
The World Climate Research Program
(WCRP) conducts research to improve
projections
The WMO Regional Programme supports
regional associations with their climate
observations and research
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
United Nations
Environmental Programme
Core mandate of ‘keeping the global environment
under review’
 Global Environmental Outlook [GEO-5] - 2012
 Green Economy Report - 2011
 Priority Areas:
1. Climate Change
5. Chemicals and Waste
2. Disasters and Conflicts
6. Resource Efficiency
3. Ecosystem Management
7. Environment under Review
4. Environmental Governance
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-5)

UNEP’s flagship assessment report series – provides
a comprehensive analysis of the state, trend and
outlook of the global environment
 Facilitate
the interaction between science and policy
 Reliable time-series data on the state of the
environment for effective policies and programmes
 Uses the integrated environmental assessment (IEA)
methodology
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
GEO-5 Measuring Progress

Biodiversity - State of the Environment
 Earth
systems are being pushed towards their
biophysical limits or exceeded

Atmosphere
 Significant
progress has been made the phase-out of
lead in gasoline, but little progress in climate change
mitigation

Climate Change
 GHG
emissions could double over the next 50 years,
rise in global temperature of 3°C or more by the end
of the century
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
GEO-5 Measuring Progress cont…



Land
 Economic growth has come at the expense of natural
resources and ecosystems, deforestation and forest
degradation alone will likely cost the global economy more
than the losses in the 2008 financial crisis
Fresh Water
 MDGs on access to safe drinking water are on track, but
2.6 billion people still lack access to basic sanitation.
Oceans
 Despite global conventions, protocols and agreements,
there are continuing signs of degradation.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
GEO-5 Measuring Progress cont…

Chemicals and waste
 Around
248,000 chemicals now commercially
available for advances in agriculture and food
production, crop pest control, industrial manufacturing,
sophisticated technology, medicine and electronics
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
National Institutions

Universities can provide climate information,
particularly
 Geological/geographical
departments
 Earth sciences departments
 Environment departments
National Meteorological Offices
 Airports and military stations

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Regional Organizations



IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre
(ICPAC)
Sahara and Sahel Organization (OSS Foundation)
Agrhymet Regional Centre, a specialized Institute of
CILSS (Permanent Interstates Committee for Drought
Control in the Sahel)
Specialized Agencies

NASA has three institutes that conduct climate research



The Earth Observing System
The Earth Science Enterprise
The Goddard Institute for Space Studies

European Space Agency conducts Earth observation
USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology




The Atmosphere in the Earth System
The Land in the Earth System
The Ocean in the Earth System
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1