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Dr. Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Climate Impact Research in the BSR: State of the Art Structure 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Climate research and modelling: what do we know? What have we learned? Regional climate effects & consequences: can we estimate them? What are preconditions for good policies? The necessary connection of mitigation and adaptation Conclusion – transition to talk II Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 1 Scope of decision makers: Extremes and their Frequency Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 1 2 Climate in the Past and the Future We are here! * Eem Holocene Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 3 Mechanisms are clear more than 100 years (some physics….) e.g. Clausius-Clapeyron Law (1834) Stefan-Boltzmann Law: (1879) Example: Zero-dimensional climate model We need: S = π R2 = 4πR2 = α = εσT4 = solar constant (1340 W/m2) eliminated area of solar insolation (R radius of earth) total earth surface earth Albedo Stefan-Boltzmann-Law (SB constant: σ = 5.669*10-8 W/m2 K4) ε: counts for thermal absorption of atmospheric gases Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 2 4 2 4 R T S ( 1 ) R 4 T4=S(1 - ) T = - 18.6 °C (=1) TT=14,9 °C (=0.6) [email protected] 4 Natural Disasters Increase of big large natural disasters (Source MunichRe): Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 number 20 27 47 63 91 Mrd.US$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704 Extreme weather related loss: ~10% of GNP in industrial nations 1. There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change, but: 2. Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes are observed for several extreme weather indicators: • More days with intense precipitation • Increasing numbers of floods in many regions • Increasing wind peak velocities in various regions • Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regions • Increasing damage potential for tropical storms (!) and winter storms Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 5 Basic Foundations of Climate Modelling Climate = Statistics of Weather (30yr averages) Structure: Multilayer Grid-Sized Coupled Ocean Atmosphere General Circulation Models (~ 300 km2) (Origin early 80ties) Preconditions Forcing Scenarios: IPCC Storylines (A1, A2, B1, B2) Consistency & Validation: CMIP: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Validation by observation/reconstruction http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip/index.php Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 6 Global Climate Regional Climate Global Scenario precipitation GCM T ~300 km >| |< ~10-50 km Regionalisation global ? local precipitation 2050 climate hydrology Regional Simulator Land use soils/ Geology Infrastructure Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 7 Uncertainties in Global Climate Change Temperature Increase [°C] a) Emission Storylines b) Model Uncertainties IPCC-Report 2001 http://www.ipcc.ch climate scenario YEAR Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 8 Local Models: why it is so difficult? Downscaling: from global model scale (~ 300 km2) to a regional scale (~10-50 km2) Two strategies: statistical models/dynamical models • Physical representation of processes must be more explicit • Need more computational power and time • Orography must be represented adequately • Boundary constraints (which model?) • Statistical transfer functions do not change in time • “Migration” of boundary inputs, etc. LCM Errors: Statistical (local) models: 10-20% Dynamical (local) models 30-40% Model intercomparisons are ongoing research (e.g. at PIK)! Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 9 First Project: PRUDENCE (Special Issue: Climatic Change 2006) Only a few sources of uncertainties were analysed: Radiative uncertainty: A2 which is only one IPCC hypothesis Model uncertainty: subgrid, discretization effects Sampling uncertainty: averages 30yrs Boundary conditions: running under constraints of one GCM Main results: A2, Dmeans 1961/1990 – 2071/2100 Northwards migration of ecosystems Increase of precipitation in the north, decrease in the south, more torrential rain Increase of extreme wind speeds between 45° - 55°N, more north-westerly Faster increase of more hot, days than the increase of moderate days Increase of heatwaves over central Europe Large differences between certain models! Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Gaussian distributions of mean summer maximum temperatures as Basle (Switzerland), (measured: 19611990, A); A': HIRHAM4 model), 20712100 A2 scenario simulation (B) and 2003 summer heatwave (C). economic global DJF and JJA precipitation changes, simulated by Rossby Centre LCM under Hadley Centre (left) and MPI HH (right) constraints (A2 storyline) A1 A2 regional B1 B2 ecological Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 11 PRUDENCE Comparison 1961/90 – 2075/2100, A2 Hadley Boundary DT (°C) BSR Countries Ta DP (%) T (DJF) T(JJA) Pa P(DJF) P(JJA) Denmark 1.1 1.0 1.1 2.4 9.8 -6.4 Estonia 1.4 1.6 1.2 4.2 10.2 4.5 Finland 1.4 1.7 1.0 5.8 10.9 4.6 Germany North 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.1 6.0 -7.3 Latvia 1.4 1.6 1.2 3.2 9.7 1.8 Lithuania 1.4 1.5 1.2 2.0 8.8 -1.1 Sweden North 1.3 1.5 1.0 5.3 9.0 2.7 Sweden South 1.2 1.3 1.1 3.5 11.4 -2.1 Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Recent Statements on Regional Climate Modelling Model outputs commonly have to be manipulated and combined with observed climate data to be usable, for example, as inputs to impact models (IPCC 2001, WGI, p. 743, Ch. 13) We are not yet at promised level where regional climate models can really influence regional policy making (Amanatidis, 2004, scientific officer EC) We cannot calculate robust regional climate scenarios (R. Betts, Hadley Centre, 2006) Regional temperature prognosis for Europe has the largest uncertainty of all continents (P. Stott, 2006) We just understand what we are doing, but our knowledge will remain uncertain (certain climate modellers 2006) Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Yes! It is not a question whether, where and how large a change may be, it is only relevant that climate change comes true! On the local scale this needs an analysis of potential impacts and their associated exposure units and its vulnerability! Good policies needs a systematic analysis of decision lines, Institutional settings, in particular, inhibiting and forcing factors! Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Even modern societies as, US, Germany, or France are sensitive against weather extremes, therefore also to long-term climate change! This implies that they are mal-adapted to current weather situations It is very likely that CC will increase this problem (cf. 2cd transparency)! Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Download at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/internat/sciencesassess.htm Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 16 Initial Impacts Effects Expected Adaptations Residual or Net Impacts VULNERABILITIES MITIGATION of Climate Change via GHG sources and sinks CLIMATE CHANGE incl. variability IMPACTS Human Interference dangerous? vulnerable? Planned ADAPTATION to the Impacts and Vulnerabilities Policy Responses Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 17 Combating and Coping with Climate Change (Post-) Kyoto-Process: Mitigation, definition of stabilization levels; technical solutions, e.g. carbon capturing and sequestration (will be not discussed here in detail!) Improving Preparedness: Adaptation, avoid unmanageable situations, develop strategies to manage the unavoidable ASTRA‘s main issue! Consequences of maladaptations? Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 18 Hurricane Katrina, Gulf of Mexico 2005 (SS5; SS4 - landfall) 1000km Example of maladaptation! Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] New Orleans Terrain model Lake Pontchartrain Gulf-Coast Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 20 They have had the possibility to know it, but - may be – that the awareness was too low…. Drowning New Orleans by Mark Fischetti Scientific American (October 1, 2001) The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under twenty feet of water. "As the water recedes", says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies". New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh - an area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die. The body bags wouldn't go very far................... Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 21 Methodological Developments for improved Flood Risk - Prognosis Ilz/Kalteneck Change of river run-off Return levels for 100yr floods: Interval of prognosis for fitting used Data Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 extrapolated Trend [email protected] − stationary GEV − instationary GEV − instationary GEV extrapolated trend, prognostic interval 5 yrs Conclusion Problem of adaptation ist not new, but the view on adaptation changes: humanity now can anticipate disastrous developments! Results from climate models provide valuable hints that adaptation/mitigation is necessary task! They cannot provide information for concrete regional actions, since this lies outside the scope of models! Actions must be developed in close cooperation of decision makers, and scientists .... Closer look and preconditions.... Knowledge improvement Awareness rising Talk: K. Eisenack & J. Kropp Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Implementation of best practices Talk: J.Kropp & M. Stock Dr. Jürgen Kropp and Dr. Manfred Stock Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research AMICA - Adaptation and Mitigation - an Integrated Climate Policy Approach: European Cities Striving for Best Practice Examples Interregional Thematic Working Groups on Key Themes Related to Climate Impacts: 1. Flooding 2. Coastal erosion 3. Drought 4. Overheating Approach to combine long-term climate protection and short- and midterm adaptation measures on the local level (transfer of best practice examples) Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] [email protected] AMICA Project Partners (http://www.klimabuendnis.org) Coordinator: European Secretariat Galvanistr. 28, D-60486 Frankfurt am Main Cooperation with PIK for Scientific Support KLIMABÜNDNIS ÖSTERREICH ALLEANZA PER IL CLIMA ITALIA Provincia di Ferrara [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Scope of the Scientific Analysis Reasons of Concern - Dealing with Risks under Uncertainty Dimensions of Scale, Time Delay, Multiple Causes, Feedback and Side Effects Concept of Vulnerability and Adaptation with some Best Practice Examples: 1. River Flood Events 2. Water Management: Droughts and Flash Floods 3. Urban Planning: Heat Waves and Overheating 4. Storms, Thunderstorms and Related Events 5. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion Adaptation - Main Findings and Evaluation [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Definition: Adaptation to Climate Change Adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate change stimuli, their effects or impacts • to reduce vulnerability • to moderate damages • to realize opportunities [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 27 Climate Impact, Systems Response and Vulnerability Climate Change IMPACT vulnerable System disastrous impact significant impact minor impact adapted critical limit temperature change [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 28 Types of Adaptation Anticipatory • changes in ecosystem composition, location • wetland migration Private • crop diversification • purchase insurance • house designs • crop development • borrow, change activity • reconstruction, relocation Public Natural Systems Human Systems Reactive • early-warning • building codes • infrastructure • disaster relief • relocation incentives Best Practice Examples [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] AMICA: Best Practice Examples [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Vulnerabiliy and Adaptation I - Water Management Global Change Socio-economic Climate Change change Sensitivity Regional Exposure •High water demand •High population density •Lack of Precipitation •Extreme rainfall events greenhousesgasemissions Adaptability •Land use management •Risik management Potential Impacts •Loss due to extreme droughts •Loss due to extreme floods Society Interaction Environment Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 Vulnerability [email protected] [email protected] Awareness & Preparedness [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Thematic working group „flooding/rivers/water-balance in urban areas“ First catalogue for adaptation measures (City of Dresden preliminary survey): 1. Retention measurements in urban areas (using for flood and draughts) 2. Protection of retention areas for flood events near rivers 3. Seasonal stabilisation of water-balance (management of groundwater, deceleration in the run-off of precipitation, seasonal water-storage) 4. Adaptations in landscape planning 5. Modification of forest structure and new forest areas 6. Water conservating techniques in the cultivation of soil 7. Adaptations in the waste and drain water systems as an example for necessary measures in infrastructure 8. Adaptations in parks and to road-side trees 9. Adequate treatment of rainfalls in plans for the development of new building areas and new streets 10. Change from flood protection to flood risk management [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Christmas flood Cologne 1993 [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] www 0373 Flood Cologne 1995 [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] www Financial damage of the 1993 and 1995 floods in Cologne • Almost the same water level 1993: 10,63 m 1995: 10,69 m • Same sentivity • But reduction of financial damage by more than 50% ! • Explained to a great extent by higher preparedness of affected households and business companies Mio. DM 160 140 120 150 Mio. DM 100 80 65 Mio. DM 60 40 20 0 Schäden 1993 1993 Schäden 1995 1995 [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] Adaptation - Main Findings 1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts 2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs 3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes 4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits 5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes 6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries, regions and socio-economic groups 7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks 8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable (people, regions…) 9. Current knowledge of adaptation & adaptive capacity is insufficient 10. Significant enhancements will result from joint projects with decision making authorities and scientific experts [email protected] Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected] 37 Thank you for your attention! Klaipeda Conference May 18-19th, 2006 [email protected]