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Using this powerpoint • I have narrated many of the slides in the notes section of this powerpoint. Please feel free to use this information for educational purposes. • Useful websites: • www.weatheroutreach.org • https://www.meted.ucar.edu/loginForm.php?urlP ath=broadcastmet/climate&go_back_to=http%25 3A%252F%252Fwww.meted.ucar.edu%252Fbro adcastmet%252Fclimate%252Fcontent%252Fse c06_01b.htm# Motivation: Why talk about this? • This issue is not going away. • Understanding the science helps us realize what role we play in the solutions to the issue. Understanding your Audience What do Adult Americans Think? Proportion of the U.S. Adult Population in 2009 … Random sample size n=2,129 people For full report go to: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/05/6americas.html Understanding your Audience What do Climate Scientists Think? Are humans responsible for observed warming? What factors have the effect of changing the Earth’s climate? • • • • Land Ocean Sun-Earth Atmosphere What can change climate? Changes in Land and Ocean Circulation The Milankovitch Cycle Precession 26,000 years Eccentricity 100,000-413,000 years Tilt 41,000 years The Milankovitch cycle, which has caused ice ages and warm periods in the past, is not causing the current changes we observe. What can change Earth’s Climate? The Sun-Earth relationship 1750-1950: .2°F of warming occurred due to 1% increase in solar output during this period 1950-1970: slightly less output from the sun, led to slight cooling Energy coming from the Sun (1979-2007) (measured at the top of the Earth’s Atmosphere) Amount of sunlight (Watts/meter2) Monthly solar data Average solar data 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: NOAA Data Show: • Solar output approximately steady • Sunlight is not causing the current climate change What can change Earth’s Climate? What can change Earth’s Climate? Greenhouse Gases What can change climate? Greenhouse gases main factors • Amount and rate of emissions released • Effectiveness of heat trapping • Residence time in the atmosphere What can change climate? Human caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases Why focus on CO2? Amount of CO2 in the atmospherehighest in 800,000 years Historical rate: 30 ppm/1000 years Current Rate: 30 ppm/last 17 years What data do climate scientists use? ground observations satellite observations balloon data continental ice sheet retreat polar ice cap retreat mtn. glacier retreat sea surface temps permafrost melt ice cores boreholes coral reef cores cave data tree rings Warming ocean sediment cores biological data Rob Gillies slide modified, puzzle images from COMET How do we know? How do we know? The data … 2008 1988 2000 Looking at the graph, what can you conclude about 2008 temperatures? a) 2008 was the coolest year since 2000 b) 2008 was warmer than any year before 1988 c) Global warming has ended, global cooling is occurring d) Temperatures in 2008 are consistent with global warming e) Two years of temperature data are enough to make statements about global warming Looking at the graph, what can you conclude about 2008 temperatures? a) 2008 was the coolest year since 2000 b) 2008 was warmer than any year before 1988 c) Global warming has ended, global cooling is occurring d) Temperatures in 2008 are consistent with global warming e) Two years of temperature data are enough to make statements about global warming Global average temperature changes in 2008 Temperature differences • Temperatures around the globe are not uniform • One area does not give us the whole picture • One time does not give us the whole picture Image Courtesy: Dr. David Chapman Temperature Difference (°C) compared to the year 2000 Why should we care? • Only a few degrees means: – National Security Threatened – Health Impacts – Negative Effects on Economics – Hotter Summers/Warmer Winters – Drought and Floods – Sea-Level Rise – Extreme Weather – Ocean Ecosystems Stressed – Regional Impacts Why should we care? Only a few degrees? • Last Ice Age: 7-13°F cooler 125,000 years ago: 1°F warmer, sea levels were 20ft higher Key Impacts as a function of Increasing Global Average Temperature Change 0°F Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 1.8°F 3.6°F 5.4°F 7.2°F 9°F Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Water Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Increasing wildfire risk Ecosystems Food Coasts Health Energy Security/ Independence Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Increasing species range shifts Significant extinctions around the globe Widespread coral mortality Complex, localized negative impacts on subsistence farmers and fishers Tendencies for cereal productivity Productivity of all cereals decreases at to decrease in low latitudes and low latitudes and in some other increase at mid-to high latitudes regions productivity decreases Increased damage from floods and storms About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health services Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Increased damage from floods and storms Increasing fire risk Increased coastal flooding Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions Figure Modified from the IPCC Report SPM.2. Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change, and socio-economic pathway. Warming by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 for non-mitigation scenarios (Modified figure: SPM7 IPCC Report 2007) 2×CO2 stabilization 2.5×CO2 3×CO2 0°F Water 1.8°F 1.8°F 3.6°F 5.4°F Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Up to 9.72°F 7.2°F 9°F Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Increasing wildfire risk Ecosystems Food Coasts Health Energy Security/ Independence Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Increasing species range shifts Significant extinctions around the globe Widespread coral mortality Complex, localized negative impacts on subsistence farmers and fishers Tendencies for cereal productivity Productivity of all cereals decreases at to decrease in low latitudes and low latitudes and in some other increase at mid-to high latitudes regions productivity decreases Increased damage from floods and storms About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health services Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Increased damage from floods and storms Increasing fire risk Increased coastal flooding Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions Why should we care? Your bills • Heating and Cooling – $$$ Hotter summers – $ Warmer Winters • Water Bills – $$$ Drought and Floods • Cost of food – $$$ Sea Level Rise – $$$ Crop failures Why should we care? Our Bills • $$$ Extreme Weather • $$$ National Security • $$$ Tourism Why should we care? Crops and Climate • USDA predicts faster growth in grain/oil seed crops, but more prone to failure if precipitation decreases. Why should we care? Crops and climate • Earlier plant growth increases vulnerability to spring cold spells • April 2007 frost cost: $ 2 Billion in agricultural losses Why should we care? Food Supply hy should we care? Climate Change and National Security Why should we care? Human health-heat waves more frequent and intense During heat waves death rate increases by 6% Why should we care? Good news in the winter • Warmer winters – less flu Why should we care? Milder temperatures = expanded range for many disease carriers Dengue hemorrhagiic fever first appeared in U.S.: 2005 – tropical borne disease Experts worry that malaria could reappear Why should we care? Air Pollution Worsens Higher humidity and warmer temperatures leads to more ozone and particulate matter forming and lasting longer Why should we care? Air Pollution Worsens • 1,000 more airpollution-related deaths per year for every 1.8°F increase. Western US Climate Change • Most of the western US is warming faster than the global average • Other climate trends across most of the Western US in the past 50 years include – Longer frost-free growing season – Earlier and warmer spring – Earlier flower blooms and leaf out for several plant species – Earlier spring snowmelt and runoff – Greater fraction of spring precipitation falling as rain instead of snow Utah Climate Change Utah Temperature (°F) 1895-2006 52 50 49 48 47 46 • There is no clear linkage between recent global warming and precipitation within the basin of the Great Salt Lake 2005 1995 1985 1975 1965 1955 1945 1935 • Snow surveys show no clear long-term (80 year) trend in mountain snowpack 1925 1915 1895 45 Line: 10 year running mean Source: National Climatic Data Center 1905 • Last decade was 2°F warmer than the 100 year average 51 Projected Temperature Change • Greater warming – In the Arctic – Over land than ocean – In winter than summer • It is likely that Utah will warm more than the global average • Projected warming for Utah (2.5xCO2 scenario) is 8°F by 2100 – Comparable to the present difference in annual mean temperature between Park City (44°F) and Salt Lake City (52°F) Projected Precipitation Changes • Less confidence in precipitation • Mid and high latitudes wetter • Most of subtropics drier • Utah in the transition zone projections Utah Snowpack and Runoff Decline in Utah’s mountain snowpack and associated changes to spring runoff • Expected trends – Reduced natural snowpack and snowfall for the winter recreation industry in the early and late winter – Earlier and less intense spring runoff for reservoir recharge – Increased demand for agricultural and residential irrigation – Warming of lakes and rivers with impacts such as increased algal abundance and upstream shifts of fish habitat Utah Water Supplies and Drought • It is more likely than not that water supplies in Utah and the Colorado River Basin will decline during the 21st century – More definitive projections not possible at the present time • The threat of severe and prolonged drought far worse than observed in the 20th century is real and ongoing – Megadroughts have occurred in the past Utah Agriculture • Based solely on climate change, per-acre crop yields in Utah will likely increase on irrigated fields provided – Water remains available for irrigation – Temperatures do not increase beyond crop tolerance levels http://www.uacd.org/districts/north_cache/programs/programs.htm • Pasture yields and livestock forage will likely decline on non-irrigated fields Other Utah Impacts • Great Salt Lake: Declines in mountain snowpack will likely lead to lower average lake levels and increased average salinity unless average winter precipitation increases dramatically • Human Health: Increased ground-level ozone concentrations and associated cardio-respiratory disease if nonclimatic factors (e.g., emissions) do not change • Wildfire: In isolation, expected climate change is likely to contribute to drier conditions and increased wildfire intensity • http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/ 2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380 Other Global Climate Trends • Mean sea level rose 7 inches in the 20th century • Shrinkage of mountain glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet responsible for 35-40% of the rise since 1993 • Little or no long term trend in the average number of tropical cyclones per year • Increasing financial losses from hurricanes due to the ever-growing concentration of population and development in coastal regions