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Impacts of Global Climate
Change on Tribes in Washington
Part 1 Sea Level Rise
by Robert S. Cole
The Evergreen State College
Impacts of Global Climate Change on
Tribes in Washington (Part 1)
Abstract
This case study is an introduction to the potential impacts of global
climate change on some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It
explores specifically the impacts of sea level rise on Tribal lands in
coastal regions, or in the Puget sound region. The case is based upon
the scientific evidence for global climate change, and the measured sea
level rise in Seattle over the past century. The case examines the
effects of winter storm surges coupled with high tides, as well as the
increased rate of sever winter storms and associated flooding in river
and estuary regions. This case is designed as a ‘clicker case’ to be
used in conjunction with interrupted lecture or interrupted workshop
formats of presentation.
At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and
academic people interested the impacts of
global climate change on sea level rise in
Washington state, several presenters showed
some slides of likely scenarios. This case
examines some of the issues that are of direct
interest to anyone living along coastal regions,
or along the shoreline of Puget Sound:
Impact of sea level rise;
Impact of winter storms on tidal levels;
CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
scientific evidence for global climate change?
A. There is clear scientific evidence that humans are
significantly affecting the Earth’s climate.
B. There is no scientific evidence that the climate of the
earth is changing.
C. There is some evidence for climate change, but
absolutely no evidence that human activities are affecting
the change.
D. There is some evidence that humans are having an effect
on climate.
4
CQ #2: Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
consequences for humans of global climate
change?
A. The effects of climate change, if any, will be small
compared to natural changes that have occurred before.
B. The effects of climate change will be minor except in poor,
less developed countries, or in remote regions.
C. Climate change will significantly affect many countries.
D. The effects of climate change will be catastrophic around
the world.
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“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to
the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations. … Discernible human influences now extend to
other aspects of climate, including ocean warming,
continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and
wind patterns.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
2500+ expert scientific reviewers
800+ contributing authors
400+ lead authors from
130+ countries
6 years work
1 report
Changes in atmospheric
composition
•
+35%
Human activities have increased the
concentration of the major greenhouse
gases
+142%
•
Global atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide now far exceed pre-industrial
(~1750) values determined from ice cores
spanning many thousands of years
•
From a longer-term perspective, these
changes are enormous:
– CO2: higher than any time in past ~20
million years
+18%
– CH4: higher than any time in past
420,000+ years
IPCC 2007
Long
timescale
changes
Source: Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington
Measured Sea Level Rise at Seattle
Hugh Shipman, Department of Ecology
http://depts.washington.edu/uwconf/psgb/proceedings/papers/6a_shipm.pdf
CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the
above slide, which statement do you think best
characterizes the local consequences of
climate change on sea level?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The trend in global temperature increase will have only
a minimal increase in sea level, because the sea level
rise in the last 100 years was only about six inches.
The trend in global temperature increase will have no
effect locally.
The trend in global temperature increase may have
noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for
human settlements near sea level.
The trend in global temperature increase will lead to a
sea level rise of 50 feet in the next 100 years.
The Climate Impacts Group at the University
of Washington predicts that:
• There will be a rise in average temperature throughout the 21st
century;
• There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound region throughout
the 21st century;
• There will be a significant alteration of the hydrological cycle in the
Pacific Northwest throughout the 21st century;
• All of this will have substantial impact on the salmon runs, timber
production, hydroelectric energy production, agriculture, and land
areas close to sea level.
Sea Level
Sea level rise (SLR) will increase the
risk of flooding, erosion, and habitat
loss along most of Washington’s 2,500
miles of coastline.
Global SLR: 7” – 23” by 2100
Medium estimates of 13” for Puget
Sound by 2100
Higher estimates up to 4 feet in Puget
sound cannot be ruled out at this time.
http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalslr579.pdf
A sea level rise of one foot will have its greatest impact
on the shore at high tide.
Olympia, Washington with blue color showing
areas that would be flooded at high tide with a
one foot rise in sea level.
Olympia: Sea Level Rise -Time to sink or swim
Tides are the highest in the winter season in the
northern hemisphere. This is because the Earth
is closer to the sun in the northern hemisphere
winter than it is in the northern hemisphere
summer. The strength of the sun’s gravitational
pull and the moon’s gravitational pull both affect
the heights of the tides.
Each month of the year, the tidal range is greatest
when the sun and moon align.
Each month of the year, the tidal range is greatest
when the sun and moon align. Those times are
called “spring tides,” although they have nothing
to do with the season spring.
http://www.onr.navy.mil/focus/ocean/motion/tides2.htm
The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even
further by strong river water runoff from rain
associated with winter storms.
Photo by Rob Cole
Highest tide of the year
Photo by Rob Cole
High tide plus major river runoff
from winter storm
The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even
further by strong river water runoff from rain
associated with winter storms.
Photo by Rob Cole
Highest tide of the year
Photo by Rob Cole
High tide plus major river runoff
from winter storm
The effects of sea level rise will also be
compounded by the effects of high waves
associated with winter storms.
Image courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology
Winter storm surges of high waves
Whidbey Island
February 4, 2006
Anacortes
Source: Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy
4 February, 2006
http://climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkwsdot.pdf
CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the
above slides, which statement do you think
best characterizes the local consequences of
climate change on sea level?
A. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about
6 feet in Puget Sound .
B. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about
6 inches in Puget Sound.
C. The difference between high and low tide
levels is greatest in the season we call spring.
D. Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of
river water runoff and by high waves in storm
surges.
Coastal Flooding
Extreme high water levels will increase over time
Flood events of any given magnitude will
become more frequent
Longer flood durations
Drainage of low-lying areas more difficult
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology, and Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy (WADOT)
http://climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkwsdot.pdf
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of Ecology
Tribal Lands with Inundation Threats
Hoh Reservation
Quileute Reservation
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeologyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx
Makah Reservation
Lummi Reservation
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeologyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx
CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the
above slides, which statement do you think
best characterizes the potential consequences
of sea level rise for some Tribal Reservations?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands in
Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but tsunamis do
present a threat.
Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to Tribal
lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise presents a significant threat to Tribal
lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to pose
a threat to Tribal lands for at least another 50 years.
Discussion
Given the slides that you’ve seen, spend a few
minutes discussing the possible responses that
federal, state, and local governments might take
to work with Tribes to minimize the danger to
them of sea level rise.
What might Tribes do to educate the rest of
society about the threats of sea level rise to
Tribal peoples and to others living in coastal
regions?
Now Let’s See What Some Tribes are
Doing In Response
2003: “The American Indian and Alaska Native
Leadership Statement On Global Warming”
2006: Indigenous Peoples around the Pacific Rim
produced the report: “ Climate Change and
Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations.”
2008: “Native Peoples: The ‘Miners Canary’ of
Climate Change”
2009: “A Tribal White Paper on Climate Change
Adaptation and Mitigation From the Intertribal
Climate Change Working Group”
2010: “Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge
of Climate Change”
2010: “Swinomish Climate Change Initiative:
Climate Adaptation Action Plan”
2010: “Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal
Year 2012 Department of Interior Climate Change
Adaptation Initiative”
• The Hoh Tribe has moved their sea level village
to higher ground.
• The Quileute Tribe has moved some buildings to
higher ground, and is in the process of
negotiating for land adjacent to its Reservation
to move more of the Tribal buildings to higher
ground.
• The Swinomish Tribe has identified portions of
its Reservation that are at high risk of
inundation, and has produced a series of
adaptation strategies.
• The Skokomish Tribe is acquiring land adjacent
to its Reservation, and moving some of their
buildings to higher land.
• The Tulalip Tribe is doing land use studies with
an eye to mitigating the effects of climate
change.
• All of the other Tribes along the Pacific coast
and in the Puget Sound region have formed
climate change planning, adaptation and
mitigation groups.
The following groups are just a few of the groups
that have taken an active role in climate change
action planning, and continue to be excellent
resources regarding climate change adaptation:
The National Congress of American Indians http://www.ncai.org/
The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission http://nwifc.org/
The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians http://www.atnitribes.org/
Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission http://www.critfc.org/
The National Tribal Environmental Council http://www.ntec.org/
Natural resources Law Center, University of Colorado
Law School http://www.colorado.edu/law/centers/nrlc/
Questions to Consolidate Your Learning
CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
scientific evidence for global climate change?
A. There is clear scientific evidence that humans are
significantly affecting the Earth’s climate.
B. There is no scientific evidence that the climate of the
earth is changing.
C. There is some evidence for climate change, but
absolutely no evidence that human activities are affecting
the change.
D. There is some evidence that humans are having an effect
on climate.
38
CQ #2: Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
consequences for humans of global climate
change?
A. The effects of climate change, if any, will be small
compared to natural changes that have occurred before.
B. The effects of climate change will be minor except in poor,
less developed countries, or in remote regions.
C. Climate change will significantly affect many countries.
D. The effects of climate change will be catastrophic around
the world.
39
CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the
slides in this case, which statement do you
think best characterizes the local
consequences of climate change on sea level?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The trend in global temperature increase will have only
a minimal increase in sea level, because the sea level
rise in the last 100 years was only about six inches.
The trend in global temperature increase will have no
effect locally.
The trend in global temperature increase may have
noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for
human settlements near sea level.
The trend in global temperature increase will lead to a
sea level rise of 50 feet in the next 100 years.
CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the
slides in this case, which statement do you
think best characterizes the local
consequences of climate change on sea level?
A. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about
6 feet in Puget Sound .
B. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about
6 inches in Puget Sound.
C. The difference between high and low tide
levels is greatest in the season we call spring.
D. Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of
river water runoff and by high waves in storm
surges.
CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the
slides in this case, which statement do you
think best characterizes the potential
consequences of sea level rise for some Tribal
Reservations?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands in
Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but tsunamis do
present a threat.
Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to Tribal
lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise presents a significant threat to Tribal
lands in Puget Sound, and along the coastline.
Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to pose
a threat to Tribal lands for at least another 50 years.
References
Boyd 2010, Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy, Nancy Boyd, Washington
State Department of Transportation, December 2010,
http://climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkwsdot.pdf (accessed May 28, 2011)
DNR 2007, Tsunami Evacuation Brochures, Washington State Department of Natural Resources
(DNR), 2007,
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeologyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx
(accessed May 22, 2011)
Hannah 2007, Native Communities and Climate Change: Protecting Tribal Resources as Part of
National Climate Policy, Jonathan M. Hannah, Natural Resources Law Center University of
Colorado Law School, 2007,
http://www.colorado.edu/law/centers/nrlc/publications/Climate_Report_Exec_Summary.pdf
(Accessed Aug 20, 2011)
International Indian Treaty Council 2003, The American Indian and Alaska Native Leadership
Statement on Global Warming, International Indian Treaty Council, 2003,
http://www.treatycouncil.org/new_page_52441111211111.htm (accessed July 28, 2011)
IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 – Synthesis Report,
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), http://www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed May 22, 2011)
References (continued)
McNutt 2008, Native Peoples: The “Miners Canary” of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied
Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2008,
http://nwindian.evergreen.edu/pdf/climatechangereport.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
McNutt 2010, Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied
Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2010,
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/climatechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
McNutt 2010, Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied
Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2010,
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/climatechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
Mote 2008, Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State, Philip Mote, Alexander Petersen,
Spencer Reeder, Hugh Shipman, and Lara Whitely Binder, University of Washington Climate Impacts
Group and the Washington Department of Ecology, January 2008,
http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalslr579.pdf (accessed May 28, 2011)
National Congress of American Indians 2010, Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal Year 2010
Department of Interior Climate Change Adaptation Initiative, Nov. 2010,
http://www4.nau.edu/tribalclimatechange/resources/docs/res_TribalRec2012DOICCAdaptInit_52011.pdf
References (continued)
ONR 2005, Office of Naval Research, Science & Technology Focus, website:
http://www.onr.navy.mil/focus/ocean/motion/tides2.htm (accessed May 28, 2011)
Parker et. al. 2006, Climate Change and Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations, Alan Parker et. al., Northwest
Indian Applied Research Institute, The Evergreen State College, 2006,
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/climatechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
Sharp et. al. 2009, A Tribal White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation From the
Intertribal Climate Change Working Group, Fawn Sharp et. al., Intertribal Climate Change Working
Group, August, 2009, http://209.206.175.157/documents/climatechange.pdf (accessed July 28, 2011)
Shipman 2009, The Response of the Salish Sea to Rising Sea Level: A Geomorphic Perspective, Hugh
Shipman, Washington State Department of Ecology, 2009
http://depts.washington.edu/uwconf/psgb/proceedings/papers/6a_shipm.pdf (accessed May 28,
2011)
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community 2010, Swinomish Climate Change Initiative website:
http://www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/climate_main.html
Note in particular: Swinomish Climate Change Initiative Climate adaption Action Plan, October 2010
http://www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/Docs/SITC_CC_AdaptationActionPlan_complete.pdf
(accessed July 27, 2011)
References (continued)
Wildcat 2009, Red Alert: Save the Planet with Indigenous Knowledge, Daniel R. Wildcat, Fulcrum
Publishing, 2009. ISBN: 978-1555916374
Unger 2011, Sea Level Rise and Ocean Acidification, Kurt Unger, Washington State Department of
Ecology, 2011, (personal communication)
United Nations 2008, United Nations Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, March 2008,
http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf (Accessed Aug 20, 2011)
For Further Study
An excellent series of case studies that explores different
aspects of global climate change and Tribal peoples can be
found at the website of the Enduring Legacies Native Case
Studies Project:
http://nativecases.evergreen.edu/collection/themes/climate-change.html