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ESC 110: Global Climate Change: Impact on Biological Systems Changes in glacial ice massIndication of Climate change Bob Edmonds Forest Resources Reading p. 195-209 Lecture Topics 1. Is global warming really happening? 2. Greenhouse gases and increases in CO2 3. Climate in the past, present and future 4. What effect will climate change have? 5. What can we do about it? 1. Is global warming really happening? GCC: Fact or Fiction From an environmental textbook: One of “the two most immediate global environmental threats humans face is climate change caused by greenhouse gases. This is caused by the introduction of large quantities of humanproduced gases into the atmosphere.” Are these statements true? Does everyone agree with them? GCC: Givens • Climate will change (because it has changed). • Carbon dioxide levels are increasing in the atmosphere • The greenhouse effect is real (and important). GCC: Questions • How will the climate change and how much will the climate change? • Is the change natural or due to human activities? • If there is climate change, will it affect me? Human-Caused Global Climate Change • IPCC (2001) released report stating “recent changes in the world’s climate have had discernable impacts on physical and biological systems.” – Concluded human activities must be at least partially responsible. 2. Greenhouse gases and increases in CO2 GCC: Greenhouse effect • The greenhouse effect is caused by trace gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, others) 2 Greenhouse Gases • Carbon Dioxide - Fossil-fuel burning. • Atmospheric levels increasing steadily. • Methane - Ruminants, Coal-mines • Absorbs more infrared than CO2. • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) - Refrigerants • Declined in recent years • Nitrous Oxide - Burning organic material • Sulfur Hexafluoride - Electrical insulation Table 9.3 GCC: Changes in a greenhouse gas Increasing Pattern Biological activity Human activity 3. Climate in the past, present and future GCC: Present Temperature Change to Historical Fig. 9.9c Fig. 9.9d West Olym pic Coastal Division, Washington Tem perature(C) Climate Division (01), 12 month period ending in December 12 month period 11 Tem perature (C) 10 year running mean 10 average +sigma 9 -sigma 8 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Ending Year of Period Cascade Mountains West Division, Washington Tem perature (C) Climate Division (05), 12 month period ending in December 12 month period Temperature (C) 10 9 10 year running mean 8 average 7 6 -sigma 5 +sigma 4 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Ending Year of Period 1970 1980 1990 2000 Tem perature (C) CO Drainage Basin (S) Division, Colorado Tem perature (C) Climate Division (02), 12 month period ending in December 9 12 month period 8 7 10 year running mean average 6 -sigma 5 4 1890 +sigma 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Ending Year of Period South Central Division, Florida Temperature (C) Climate Division (04), 12 month period ending in December 12 month period Tem perature (C) 24 10 year running mean 23 average 22 21 1890 -sigma +sigma 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Ending Year of Period 1970 1980 1990 2000 LARGE SCALE CLIMATE PERTURBATIONSEL NINO AND LA NINA El Nino Southern Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation • Large pool of warm surface water in Pacific Ocean moves back and forth between Indonesia and South America. – Most years, the pool is held in western Pacific by steady equatorial trade winds. • Every three-five years the Indonesian low collapses and the mass of warm surface water surges back east. El Nino Southern Oscillation – During an El Nino year, the northern jet stream pulls moist air from the Pacific over the U.S. • Intense storms and heavy rains. – During intervening La Nina years, hot, dry weather is often present. GCC: Climate Change: Predictions MODEL Know CO2 will continue to increase Greenhouse effect should increase Therefore temperature should increase Four responses: • A disaster • The best news ever • Do not know enough • Natural cycles dominate The Pacific Northwest is likely to have hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters. 4. What effect will climate change have? EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON: Agriculture - increase agricultural yields in Canada; could reduce in U.S. Forests - change species distributions, more forest fires Water – stream flows could be less in some areas; big competition for water Fish - could increase stream temperatures; reduce salmon Coral reefs - killing of reefs (bleaching) Wildlife – some species could go extinct; reduce biodiversity People - sea level rise will flood coastal cities, water supplies could be reduced, more fires, hotter in summer(more need for air conditioning and energy), reduced snow for skiing. Could result in rapid global cooling (breaking the conveyor belt) Modern Glacial Retreat in Switzerland NOW THEN Consequences of Changes in Global Snow/Ice Coverage • Northern latitudes have warmed more than the global average. • Spring is coming sooner to northern latitudes. • Examined 10 plus year record of almost 300 different species: Changes in phenology (when leaves appear, migration, nesting, hibernation) and distribution and abundance • Seasonal water shortages • Loss of glaciers (e.g., Glacier Nat’l Park) Consequence of this warming? Feedback: Less snow, means warmer winters, earlier springs. Further: Changes in species distribution Changes in biological communities GCC: Implications on Plants Species responses Disturbance regimes Rapid melting of polar ice in the North Atlantic could break the heat conveyer belt in the oceans and cause rapid cooling. Scarey!! 5. What can we do about it? GCC: Let’s assume we need to do something, then what? • Conservation – reduce fossil fuel energy use • Alternative energy sources • Regulate carbon dioxide emissions ( 1997 Kyoto Protocol – U.S. has not signed) • Carbon tax • Use plants (trees) to take up or sequester the carbon. GCC: Solutions with plants • Balance the net gain of global carbon by the atmosphere through planting young forests requires over 109 hectares of young forest, ~14 times the size of Washington State. • Balancing the CO2 input from the US alone would require an area ~3 times Washington State ( ~1.2 times the size of California) • If you burn it then it goes back to the atmosphere. Could bury trees in the ocean. GUILT Global Climate Change: Summary. Climate has changed in the past and will in the future Humans have contributed Climate change has consequences We are involved in a massive experiment You are the observers of this experiment. You will need to address whether & when something should be done & how.