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Department of Meteorology The Challenge of Climate Change Brian Hoskins Director Grantham Institute for Climate Change Royal Society Research Professor & Professor of Meteorology University of Reading Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide since 1957 Global & annual mean Temperature Global mean Sea Level Arctic Sea Ice Sea ice minimum area 20th Century Continental Temperatures: Observed & Modelled with & without anthropogenic forcings IPCC 2007 Projections of globally averaged surface warming Different scenarios IPCC 2007 Surface Temperature & Precipitation Projections Dec-Feb : 2090s relative to 1980-99 “Irreversible” impact of 21st century emissions Temp rise Atmospheric CO2 Sea level rise Solomon et al., PNAS, 2009 Impacts of global warming in different sectors • Water: increases & decreases; more exposed to water shortage • Ecosystems: species shifts & extinctions • Food: changes in possible crops; more reductions than increase in production • Coasts: increases in coastal erosion & flooding • Health: increases in malnutrition & infectious diseases; changes in e.g. malaria; increases in deaths from heat, floods & droughts, but decreases in deaths from cold •Increasing atmospheric CO2 also inevitably leads to increasing acidification of the ocean Tackling the anthropogenic climate change problem By emitting greenhouse gases to the atmosphere it is very likely we are perturbing the climate system in a dangerous way. What can we do? 1. Adapt to whatever happens: adaptation 2. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation 3. Do something else to compensate: geo-engineering Geo-engineering suggestions 1. Remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere fertilise the ocean artificial trees, land surface treatment 2. Reduce amount of sun’s energy absorbed Solar Radiation Solar Interceptor Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Scattering Cloud Albedo SurfaceGrassland, Urbanization and Desert Albedo Level 1 – Space Level 2 – Stratosphere Level 3 – Troposphere Level 4 Surface Actual climate impact; other impacts; feasibility? UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008) • Commitment to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 • Established system of legally binding “carbon budgets” • Established the Climate Change Committee (CCC) as an independent body to provide expert advice on budget levels and the policies to reach them Dec 2008: CCC First Report Building a Low-Carbon Economy – The UK's Contribution to Tackling Climate Change www.theccc.org.uk GHG Emission scenarios & targets proposed by the UK Climate Change Committee, Dec 2008 80 2016:4%low GtCO2e 60 50 2016:4% 40 2016:3%low 30 2016:3%high 20 2016:1.5% 10 0 2000 A1B 2050 2100 Year 2150 2200 °C above pre-industrial 70 4 3.5 3 90th percentile 2.5 2 central model estimate 1.5 1 10th pecentile 0.5 0 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 Year Global emissions should peak before 2020 & drop rapidly after that. 0.8Tt Ce 1990-2010 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita in 2050 For the UK this target implies an 80% cut from 1990 levels: agreed by Parliament & now in UK law Supported by the G8 meeting in Italy Copenhagen in December???? Appropriate UK contribution: the scale of the challenge 695 Mt CO2e International aviation & shipping* UK non-CO2 GHGs CCC 2008 42 98 Other CO2 Industry (heat & industrial processes) 108 Residential & Commercial heat 103 77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990) 134 159 Mt CO2e Domestic transport 184 Electricity Generation 2006 emissions * bunker fuels basis 2050 objective UK CO2e emission targets … 900 Including aviation and shipping 800 42% below 1990 in 2020 (31% below 2005) 34% below 1990 in 2020 (21% below 2005) 700 … … Interim 600 500 MtCO2e emissions Interim (no IAS) Interim budgets Totalaccepted including IAS by UK Government & Parliament MtCO2e emissions Intended (no IAS) 400 Intended if Copenhagen “sucessful” 300 200 2050 Target 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year UK sectoral CO2 emissions path for 80% reduction at 2050? CCC 2008 Feasible emissions reductions in UK Power Sector CCC 2008 600 g/CO2 per kWh 500 • • • 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 2050 Renewable and nuclear Preparation for CCS Required policies - EU ETS development - CCS demonstration - Price/non-price policies to drive renewables European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT) 2-3 Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs) in ICT, Energy, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Aim: step change in innovation capacity in Europe €270 M available over 4 years, with leverage of at least 3:1 Expected life-time 7-15 years AO April; 20 bids received by closing date (end of August) Top 9 invited for interview in Budapest 16 December Successful bids informed by end of December Announcement early January Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC) KICs will generate technologies and ideas to meet challenges of climate change: build innovative ‘webs of excellence’ create new business educate and develop entrepreneurial people have societal impact 20 Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y nitrous oxide carbon dioxide methane proxy for temp time today IPCC 2007 Preferred trajectories: emissions target for 2050 CCC 2008 Emissions trajectory 2016:3% 2016:4% Kyoto gas emissions (GtCO2e) 1990 2007 2050 36.1 48.1 23.9 36.1 48.1 19.6 2050 emissions cut, from 1990 2007 34% 50% 46% 59% Broadly in line with the G8 commitment to halve emissions by 2050. 80 70 GtCO2e 60 50 2016:4% 40 2016:3%low 30 2016:3%high 20 2016:1.5% 10 A1B 0 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 Cumulative emissions perspective Years 1990-2008 1990-2050 1990-2100 Gt CO2e 800 2420-2540 3000-3200 Tt Ce 0.22 0.66-0.69 0.82-0.87 Year 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita in 2050 2. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere “Greenhouse” gases transparent to solar radiation opaque to thermal radiation determine height of layer from which heat escapes to space More greenhouse gases: higher level colder temperature less heat lost → global warming (water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861) Break-up of Antarctic Ice Shelves Wilkins 2008 Larsen B 2002 Some CCC emission scenarios peaking at 2016 and projections of CO2e and T for one case 80 70 GtCO2e 60 50 2016:4% 40 2016:3%low 30 2016:3%high 20 2016:1.5% 10 0 2000 A1B 2050 2100 2150 2200 Year 2016:4%low 700 ppm CO2e 650 600 90th percentile 550 500 450 central model estimate 400 10th pecentile 350 2000 2050 2100 Year 2150 2200 °C above pre-industrial 2016:4%low 4 3.5 3 90th percentile 2.5 2 central model estimate 1.5 1 10th pecentile 0.5 0 2000 2050 2100 Year 2150 2200