Download Imperial College London

Department of Meteorology
The Challenge of Climate Change
Brian Hoskins
Director
Grantham Institute for
Climate Change
Royal Society Research Professor &
Professor of Meteorology
University of Reading
Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide since 1957
Global & annual mean Temperature
Global mean Sea Level
Arctic Sea Ice
Sea ice minimum area
20th Century Continental Temperatures:
Observed & Modelled with & without anthropogenic forcings
IPCC 2007
Projections of globally averaged surface warming
Different scenarios
IPCC 2007
Surface Temperature & Precipitation Projections
Dec-Feb : 2090s relative to 1980-99
“Irreversible” impact of 21st century emissions
Temp rise
Atmospheric CO2
Sea level rise
Solomon et al., PNAS, 2009
Impacts of global warming in different sectors
• Water: increases & decreases; more exposed to water shortage
• Ecosystems: species shifts & extinctions
• Food: changes in possible crops; more reductions than increase
in production
• Coasts: increases in coastal erosion & flooding
• Health: increases in malnutrition & infectious diseases; changes
in e.g. malaria; increases in deaths from heat, floods &
droughts, but decreases in deaths from cold
•Increasing atmospheric CO2 also inevitably leads to increasing
acidification of the ocean
Tackling the anthropogenic climate change problem
By emitting greenhouse gases to the atmosphere it is very likely
we are perturbing the climate system in a dangerous way.
What can we do?
1. Adapt to whatever happens:
adaptation
2. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of
greenhouse gases:
mitigation
3. Do something else to compensate:
geo-engineering
Geo-engineering suggestions
1. Remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
fertilise the ocean
artificial trees, land surface treatment
2. Reduce amount of sun’s energy absorbed
Solar Radiation
Solar Interceptor
Top of
Atmosphere
Aerosol
Scattering
Cloud Albedo
SurfaceGrassland, Urbanization and Desert Albedo
Level 1 –
Space
Level 2 –
Stratosphere
Level 3 –
Troposphere
Level 4 Surface
Actual climate impact; other impacts; feasibility?
UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008)
• Commitment to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 80% from
1990 levels by 2050
• Established system of legally binding “carbon budgets”
• Established the Climate Change Committee (CCC) as an
independent body to provide expert advice on budget levels
and the policies to reach them
Dec 2008: CCC First Report
Building a Low-Carbon Economy –
The UK's Contribution to Tackling Climate Change
www.theccc.org.uk
GHG Emission scenarios & targets proposed by
the UK Climate Change Committee, Dec 2008
80
2016:4%low
GtCO2e
60
50
2016:4%
40
2016:3%low
30
2016:3%high
20
2016:1.5%
10
0
2000
A1B
2050
2100
Year
2150
2200
°C above pre-industrial
70
4
3.5
3
90th percentile
2.5
2
central model
estimate
1.5
1
10th pecentile
0.5
0
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
Year
Global emissions should peak before 2020 & drop rapidly after that.
0.8Tt Ce 1990-2010
2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita in 2050
For the UK this target implies an 80% cut from 1990 levels:
agreed by Parliament & now in UK law
Supported by the G8 meeting in Italy
Copenhagen in December????
Appropriate UK contribution: the scale of the challenge
695 Mt CO2e
International
aviation
& shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
CCC 2008
42
98
Other CO2
Industry (heat &
industrial processes)
108
Residential &
Commercial heat
103
77% cut
(= 80% vs.
1990)
134
159 Mt CO2e
Domestic transport
184
Electricity
Generation
2006 emissions
* bunker fuels basis
2050 objective
UK CO2e emission targets
…
900
Including aviation and shipping
800
42% below 1990 in 2020
(31% below 2005)
34% below 1990 in 2020
(21% below 2005)
700
…
…
Interim
600
500
MtCO2e emissions Interim (no IAS)
Interim budgets
Totalaccepted
including IAS
by UK
Government &
Parliament
MtCO2e emissions Intended (no IAS)
400
Intended if
Copenhagen
“sucessful”
300
200
2050
Target
100
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
UK sectoral CO2 emissions path for 80% reduction at 2050?
CCC 2008
Feasible emissions reductions in UK Power Sector
CCC 2008
600
g/CO2 per kWh
500
•
•
•
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2010
2020
2030
2050
Renewable and nuclear
Preparation for CCS
Required policies
- EU ETS development
- CCS demonstration
- Price/non-price policies to
drive renewables
European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT)
2-3 Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs)
in ICT, Energy, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
Aim: step change in innovation capacity in Europe
€270 M available over 4 years, with leverage of at least 3:1
Expected life-time 7-15 years
AO April; 20 bids received by closing date (end of August)
Top 9 invited for interview in Budapest 16 December
Successful bids informed by end of December
Announcement early January
Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC)
KICs will generate technologies and ideas to meet challenges
of climate change:
 build innovative ‘webs of excellence’
 create new business
 educate and develop entrepreneurial people
 have societal impact
20
Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y
nitrous
oxide
carbon
dioxide
methane
proxy
for temp
time
today
IPCC 2007
Preferred trajectories: emissions target for 2050
CCC 2008
Emissions
trajectory
2016:3%
2016:4%
Kyoto gas emissions (GtCO2e)
1990
2007
2050
36.1
48.1
23.9
36.1
48.1
19.6
2050 emissions cut, from
1990
2007
34%
50%
46%
59%
Broadly in line with the G8 commitment to halve emissions by 2050.
80
70
GtCO2e
60
50
2016:4%
40
2016:3%low
30
2016:3%high
20
2016:1.5%
10
A1B
0
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
Cumulative emissions perspective
Years
1990-2008
1990-2050
1990-2100
Gt CO2e
800
2420-2540
3000-3200
Tt Ce
0.22
0.66-0.69
0.82-0.87
Year
2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita in 2050
2. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
“Greenhouse” gases
transparent to solar radiation
opaque to thermal radiation
determine height of layer from which
heat escapes to space
More greenhouse gases:
higher level
colder temperature
less heat lost
→ global warming
(water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,…
Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861)
Break-up of Antarctic Ice Shelves
Wilkins 2008
Larsen B 2002
Some CCC emission scenarios peaking at 2016
and projections of CO2e and T for one case
80
70
GtCO2e
60
50
2016:4%
40
2016:3%low
30
2016:3%high
20
2016:1.5%
10
0
2000
A1B
2050
2100
2150
2200
Year
2016:4%low
700
ppm CO2e
650
600
90th percentile
550
500
450
central model
estimate
400
10th pecentile
350
2000
2050
2100
Year
2150
2200
°C above pre-industrial
2016:4%low
4
3.5
3
90th percentile
2.5
2
central model
estimate
1.5
1
10th pecentile
0.5
0
2000
2050
2100
Year
2150
2200