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Impacts and responses
concerning Global climate
change in Hungary
a Joint Research Project of the
Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the
Ministry for Environment and Water
The World’s climate has not been
constant. We know, it has gone
through dramatic past changes,
but there is an increasing evidence
that human activities are altering
our climate at an unprecedented
rate.
The Carpathian Basin
The Greenhouse Effect
Incoming Energy
Reflected Energy
Outgoing
Energy
Energy Trapped by
Greenhouse Gases
Global temperature change (1860-1999) relative to
1961-1990 average temperature
Average temperature changes in East Europe
2
warm
1,5
1
year
1,5 oC interval
0,5
mean temperature
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
„Little glacial”
cold
oC
VargaVarga-Haszonits,
Haszonits, 2003. www.
www.vahava.hu
vahava.hu
2000
-
1900
-
1800
-
1700
-
1600
-
1500
-
1400
-
1300
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1200
-
1100
-
1000
-
900
-
800
0
Trends in CO2 concentrations for past 1000 years
(parts per million by volume, ppmv)
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)
(http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/)
Changes in the annual precipitation of Hungary
900
mm
800
700
600
500
400
300
y = - 0,8313x + 2223,9
200
100
0
1900
'10
'20
'30
'40
'50
'60
'70
'80
'90
trend
Varga-Haszonits, 2003, [email protected]
2000
Water budget
of the Earth
97.41 %
sea water
2.59% is
sweet water
99 % of sweet
water is ice,
snow or
underground
1% is available
soil
atmosphere
rivers,
lakes
The VAHAVA project
vahava
Change – Impact - Response
(Változás - Hatás – Válasz)
vahava
[email protected],
http//www.vahava.hu
The main task of the project is to provide
a large scale synthesis in the field of
• Exploration of complex impacts of
reliable scenarios on climate change;
• Response suggestions and proposals,
as well as emergency programmes
which may prevent or minimalize
undesirable effects on national and
regional levels.
Research fields
Agriculture and forestry
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Crop production, plant breeding.
Pastures and grassland management.
Horticulture.
Forestry.
Agricultural water management.
Seed production and propagation.
Production and storage of fodder crops.
Problems related to the husbandry of grazing
animals.
Pond fisheries.
Chances and boundaries of flood-plain farming.
Wildlife management.
Development in yield estimation methods.
Nature conservation and climate change
• Predictable problems of protected areas.
• Predictable problems of „Vulnerable Natural
Areas”, areas of NATURA 2000, and areas of the
Ecological Network.
• Effects of climate change on birds’ migration and
wild life habitats.
• Harmonization of proceses of agriculture and
forestry with the protection of biodiversity.
• Stability of natural ecosystems and populations
and their response related to climate change.
Special scientific problems
• Climatic sensitivity of field crops.
• Abiotic stress tolerance of crop plants
(cold tolerance, frost tolerance, heat
tolerance, drought tolerance etc).
• Effects of climate change on the spreading
of pests and diseases.
• Land use problems in relation with water
logged areas.
• Land use problems related to drought
areas.
Tasks of water management
• Effects of climate change on water storage
capacities of soils.
• Effect of climate change on surface and
subsurface water sources.
• Effect of climate change on water quality and
water remediation.
• Effects of floods and water logging on small water
catchment areas in certain climate scenarios.
• Predictable problems of communal water supply
in relation with climate change.
Economic and social consequences
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Adaptation of disaster rescue systems.
Effects of climate change on transport and traffic.
Predictable impacts on tourism.
Effects of climate change on energy consumption.
Revision of agricultural subsidy systems.
Revision of insurance systems.
Foresight in telecommunication.
Comprehensive evaluation of institutions affected
by climate change, and adaptation proposals.
• Review and evaluation of legal systems, and
adaptation proposals.
• Public health impacts and their consequences.
Synthesis
In 2005 specialist working groups process research
results and reports, and elaborate a synthesis in
favour of program proposals in the following fields:
Nature conservation.
Economic systems in agriculture and
forestry.
Water management.
Communal systems, transport, traffic and
energy consumption.
Human dimensions (health, education,
communication, legal system).
Social aspects.
The structure of the
project
The project is iniciated and supervised by
the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and
the Ministry for Environment and Water.
The Steering Committee of the project:
István Láng
Márton Jolánkai
László Csete
The project is supported by the Scientific
Council.
Project participants:
Research institutions (institutes, universities)
Scientific committees of the Academy
Governmental bodies and organizations
Commercial companies
Non-governmental organizations
Individual specialists
Expected results
• Hopefully new scientific results in certain
disciplines.
• Comprehensive evaluation concerning the
impacts and consequences of climate
change.
• Elaboration of complex program proposals
for prevention or reduction of harm on
national and regional level.
• Scientific support to future strategic plans
and implementations of the Government.
Thank you
vahava
http://www.vahava.hu