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Opening Address Greg Bourne The Resilience Challenge CEO WWF-Australia and Chair CERF Reference Panel Playing the World Cup! Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia 1 Agenda • The State of the World and Overshoot • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice 2 Drivers of biodiversity loss growing in intensity •Most direct drivers of degradation in ecosystem services remain constant or are growing in intensity in most ecosystems 3 Overshoot into ecological debt WWF Living Planet Report 2008 4 Overshoot and collapse? 5 How resilient are we? J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864 One scenario: A more likely scenario: The Carrying Capacity of the Planet The Carrying Capacity of the Planet Overshoot Collapse The Ecological Footprint of Humanity 1990 The Ecological Footprint of Humanity 2100 “Smooth landing” 1990 2100 “Overshoot and collapse” Fig.4. Overshoot and collapse – in principle 6 Policy relevant “Tipping Elements” in the Earth’s Climate System 7 Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm In and out of ice ages – last couple of millions of years oscillating every 70,000 years or so! Hot Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm Loss of each “tipping element” increases the risk of passing thresholds Hot Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm Loss of each “tipping element” increases the risk of passing thresholds Hot Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm Loss of each “tipping element” increases the risk of passing thresholds Hot Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm At some point we trigger runaway global warming Hot Overshoot and collapse to a new stable state? Agenda • The State of the World and Overshoot • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice 13 Canada and Cod STOCKS Discontinuity Probabilistic error bar 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings 3. Expert Consensus 4. Rejection due to cost 5. Cod Collapse Mid 1980s 1986 1990 1990-91 1992 eg inshore fishermen Keats Report Harris Report Ministry (DFO) Nothing left to catch 14 TIME North Sea and Cod STOCKS Discontinuity Probabilistic error bar 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings 3. Expert Consensus 4. Rejection due to cost 5. Cod Collapse by 1990s 1993-6 2000 2001 200? environment groups Shephard, Cook Report ICES assessment EU Council of Ministers Nothing left to catch 15 TIME Arctic Ice Cover AREA Discontinuity Probabilistic error bar 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings 3. Expert Consensus by 1980s 1990 2007 Scientists NGOs IPCC 1St Assesment Report IPCC 4AR 4. Rejection due to cost 5.Total ice sheet loss? 20?? 16 TIME World GDP and Traded Resource Needs VOLUME AND PRICE Discontinuity Probabilistic error bar 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings by 1970s 2007-8 2008-10 Limits to Growth Stern Garnaut et al ? 17 Agenda • The State of the World and Overshoot • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice 18 Unravelling trends, predicting discontinuities Reinforcing events ISSUE Probabilistic error bar Discontinuity Detracting event TIME 19 Climate Change: Public awareness and concern HIGH IMPORTANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Jobs LOW Health Education Law and order Heightened awareness Drought Bushfires Heightened public concern Copenhagen + Sceptics Erosion of importance TIME 20 Climate change What are the best defensive interventions ? ISSUE What are the best offensive interventions? It is unacceptable to wait until you know for sure! “All science is always provisional” (Karl Popper) The probabilities are now too high to ignore. Discontinuities, what type, impact, magnitude and probability? Politicians may be about to act! TIME 21 Political action lags societal concern Law and regulation enacted Heightened confidence PROPENSITY TO ENACT HIGH At the stroke of a pen! Leave well alone A large risk to business is when politicians make up their minds and then act! LOW TIME 22 Propensity to really act on Climate Change Lib Lab Grn Nat Howard Government Nat Rudd Government Lab Lib Grn Lab Lib Con What next? Nat Grn Here or Here??? High Low Progressive Conservative 23 Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose! Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2oC rise Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world New Sustainability Paradigm BAU defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown. A severe procrastination penalty Societal, economic and environmental breakdown -1 to 2% GDP loss But possibly a gain in world GDP But with Runaway Climate Change At least 20% GDP loss 24 Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose! Work for real reductions 25% by 2020 & a Global Deal Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “Achieve Advantage for Australia” in a breakdown world A Sustainable Australia in a Sustainable World A Transformed, Productive and Adapted Australia BAU is procrastination. If copied around the world it quickly defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown But with Runaway Climate Change Overshoot and Collapse An Impoverished, Environmentally Unproductive 25 Continent Agenda • The State of the World and overshoots • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice 26 Procrastination? Procrastination? Data more than enough to make a defendable decision! Decision Window Data sufficient to avoid major errors Learning Period Time doing research and positioning for decisions 27 “Good Enough” tools 28 “Good Enough” tools 29 Avoiding the tip! 1. Elements can be identified which have the potential to tip. (You can see other stable states and possible thresholds.) 2. Decisions taken within a “Political Time Horizon” can determine what happens. (There is still time to have an effect.) 3. The time to observe change plus the time to trigger it lie within an “Ethical Time Horizon”. (Events too far away have little chance of influencing today’s decisions) 4. A significant number of people care about the consequences should an element tip. (A significant change in human welfare could occur or part of the biosphere could be significantly disrupted.) 30 Agenda • The State of the World and Australia • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice 31 If we choose to lose! “The phenomenon of overshoot and collapse – and the possibility of global collapse – is still relevant and worthy of study. Global collapse triggered by ever growing emissions of greenhouse gases is still conceivable in the first half of the 21st century, because of the unfortunate combination of global decision delays and self-reinforcing feedback in the climate system. Interestingly it may prove difficult to verify that global collapse did take place—even if it did, and even after the fact. Global collapse – defined as a situation where more than one billion people lose one half of what they hold dear in less than 20 years – may well be hidden from the headlines and the history books. J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864 32 If we choose to lose! The 21st century is more likely to be described as a period of intense local strife, institutional breakdown, regionalization and general malaise. The root cause – humanity overstepping an environmental limit – may well be lost in the clutter of historical detail. Global Collapse could remain fiction, even if it proved to be fact.” J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864 33 If we choose to win! We must understand and incorporate the concepts of resilience thinking into our political, economic and social structures. We must start at the highest level of the system in which we might want to intervene. On Climate Change the geopolitical system and the biophysical system are intimately inter-related and should be seen as one! Decisions must be taken within the “political time horizon”. Enough people must care about a positive outcome in order for politicians to have the courage to take action! 34 Opening Address Greg Bourne The Resilience Challenge CEO WWF-Australia and Playing to win! Chair CERF Reference Panel Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia 35