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Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008 Agenda 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Climate Science – Known & Unknowns Climate International Climate Country Specific Ozone Science Ozone International Ozone Country Programs Industry Response Personal Responses to Climate Change Climate Change Science What is the “greenhouse effect”? Like the sun, the Earth also emits radiation. It is much cooler than the sun, though, so it emits in the infrared, just like a person, a cat, or any other body. Some of that infrared energy may be absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere, affecting the global energy balance. Venus has an atmosphere with more than 90% CO2. It also has sulfuric acid clouds. Its planetary greenhouse effect is about 500°C (the atmosphere raises the temperature by that much). Earth has an atmosphere with much less CO2 than Venus. The greenhouse effect raises its average temperature by about 30°C. The greenhouse effect is basic physics and it is real. What about greenhouse warming? The Atmosphere CCS-2 The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 years CCS-3 CO2 Emissions 10/28/02-cc5 Extent of Arctic Sea Ice 1979 and 2005 Changes to clouds: the biggest cause of uncertainty in predictions Low clouds cool climate High clouds warm climate Global warming will change cloud characteristics and, hence, their warming or cooling effect. This will exert a powerful feedback on climate change, but this feedback will differ from model to model. Antarctic Temperature Trends, 1966–2000 Components of sea-level rise Ocean circulation in the North Atlantic US Hurricane Cycles Wax and Wane 2001-2005 6 12 1991-2000 5 14 1981-1990 5 1971-1980 15 4 1961-1970 12 6 1951-1960 8 1941-1950 10 1931-1940 8 14 24 19 5 1921-1930 1911-1920 13 7 1901-1910 21 4 0 Major Hurrican All Hurricanes 17 18 10 20 30 40 Hurricanes Per Year 8.4 1995-2005 1995-2005 1931-1994 1931-1994 5.1 1905-1930 3.4 1905-1930 0 5 10 REF: Nat’l Center for Atm. Presearch July, 2007 Global Emissions Scenario 14 12 10 8 GtC/yr 6 4 Annex 1 Non Annex 1 2 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year Current estimates for emissions growth in Non-Annex 1 countries are even higher IS92 a IPCC 1992 2050 Global Emissions for 550 PPM Stabilization 14 12 10 8 GtC/yr 6 4 Annex 1 Non Annex 1 2 0 1990 2000 2010 Stabilization is not feasible without Non-Annex 1 countries’ participation 2020 Year 2030 2040 2050 IPCC 1994 Radiative Forcing CCS-7 Halocarbon Emissions, continued Combined CO2equivalent emissions from halocarbons: ~7.5 Gt near 1990, about 33% of that year's CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning ~2.5 Gt near 2000, about 10% of that year’s CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1500 1600 1700 Date (year A.D.) 1800 1900 2000 Decay of tetrafluoroethane (T = 14 years) in the atmosphere compared to CO2 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 0.2 HFC-134a 0.1 0 2000 2100 2200 2300 Date (year A.D.) 2400 2500 Cut-off at a 100 year Integration Time Horizon 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 0.2 HFC-134a 0.1 0 2000 2100 2200 2300 Date (year A.D.) 2400 2500 Climate Change International Climate Change International August 1990 June 1992 March/April 1995 December 1995 July 1996 December 1997 First IPCC Assessment Rio de Janeiro, Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of Parties (1), Berlin Second IPCC Assessment Conference of Parties (II), Geneva Conference of Parties (III), Kyoto Kyoto Protocol • Controls Emissions • 6 Greenhouse Gases – CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 • Avg. reduction for developed countries – 5.2% from 1990 level • 2015 reduction-1.7ppm to 381.3 ppm Climate Change - International • First Meeting of Kyoto Protocol Parties in Montreal, November, 05 – – – – US non Party First Commitment Period – 2008 thru 2012 No Second Commitment or Period defined Canadian Environment Minister was President Kyoto Protocol Meeting 2006 Nairobi • Adaptation Fund creation – Significant discussion by developing countries. – May be used as tradeoff for developing country commitments – Administrative rules were agreed Bali - 2007 • Largest attended meeting ever – More new NGO’s • Youth, Indigenous Peoples, Civil Society • Agreement for 2 year negotiations – Inclusive of US • Under both UNFCCC and KP – 2 tracks – No developing country commitments • Weak, voluntary language • Negotiations completed in 2009 – Commitments commence in 2013 Other Climate Change • Achim Steiner, UNFCCC Ex. Sec. requested emergency meeting General Assembly on climate – Moon agreed – September 24, 2007 • White House conference 13 countries 9/27.9/28/07 • IPCC – released first 3 Working Group reports – “…globally average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming…” – 90% probability that climate change is manmade – Massive populations at risk, plan/animal species • Steiner noted MP contribution to KP goals – MP 8 GT, KP 2 GT, substitute HCFCs/HFCs add 1 GT Other Climate Change • G8 Climate Focus – Aim to cut ghgs 50% by 2050 – Incorporate India/China • 16 largest cities to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings –Clinton Climate Initiative – Houston, Chicago, NY – ASHRAE – Honeywell, Trane, Siemens, Johnson Controls conduct audits – Clinton will attend Nov 1,2 Mayor’s Conference in Seattle Country Climate Programs USA EU F Gas Regulation Key sectors – refrigeration, air-conditioning, heat pumps, high-voltage switchgear • Reporting – Production,imports, exports • Marketing & use bans limited – Non-refillable containers • Entered into force July 4, 2007 – Rules still being written EU F Gas Regulation • CONTAINMENT – Stationary applications prevent/minimize leakage – Number of annual checks depends on equipment size – Maintain records of inspections • RECOVERY – Recover gases at end of life – Certified personnel for recycling, reclamation, destruction – Commission establish minimum requirements by 7/08 • LABELLING – Containers of F gases – Refrigeration, A/C equipment EU F Gas Regulation • 2010 REVIEW – Whether containment can extend to MAC – Assess need for emission control from products/equipment • Foam • Technical product design – Assess BAT/BEP – Assess state of technology, particularly for foams – Assess marketing prohibitions • Technical feasibility • Energy efficiency considerations EU Mobile A/C Directive • <50 gms HFC/year Emission – If GWP > 150 – Hammonized leak detection test • • • • < 60 gms/year dual evaporation 1/1/11 no new model MAC > 150 GWP 1/1/17 no new MAC > 150 GWP Service allowed – “Abnormal” leakage requires repair – Review Procedure 12 months or 5 years after entry into force – Honeywell/Dupont/Others announced low GWP alternatives • Tailpipe emissions separate regulation EU Emissions Trading 2005-7 covers: energy, oil steel & paper 2008 covers all large emitters MS allocate individually EU is bringing aviation into ETS. Price development in the EU ETS € 30 € 26 € 22 € 18 € 14 € 10 €6 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 HFC’s – Country Program • Denmark – – – – EC is pursuing infringement proceeding Law effective July 1, 2002 Tax $7.90/LB HFC – 134a General Use, including recycle use, in new products P/O 1/1/06 – Exceptions: 1/1/02 District Heat Pumps Foam for joints Aerosol 1/1/06 Flexible foam 1/1/07 Cooling Plants, Heat Pumps, dehumidifiers, Refrigeration & A/C over 10Kg CCEU-6 HFC’s – Country Program • Denmark (con’t) – Exceptions: Refrigeration & A/C 0.15-10Kg – A/C in Hermetic systems to 50Kg • • • • • • MAC’s Medical Lab Military Onboard Ships Servicing CCEU-7 HFC’s Country Programmes • Norway – 180 NKr per ton CO2 equivalent – Norwegian Industry Attempted to Overturn • Got Agreement as “Deposit” CCEU-9 HFC’s – Country Program • Switzerland – HFC’s Phase/Out – – – – – – – – 1/1/03 Aerosols, except MDI 1/1/03 Domestic refrigeration and freezers 1/1/03 Extinguishing agents (some exemptions) 1/1/03 Foams unless efficacy proven 1/1/03 Solvents 1/1/05 A/C (checked annually) 1/1/08 MAC’s (check annually) Existing Domestic A/C not included CCEU-10 HFC’s – Country Program • Switzerland – Ban HFCs effective July 1, 03 – Does Not Apply: • Some spray cans • 1/1/04 – Foams Manufacture – Can Grant “Derogation” » No Substitutes • Solvents – can grant “derogation” – Limited time frame – No alternatives – Measures to avoid emissions Canada • • • • • HFC restricted to ODS substitutes - whitepaper Concern over cross border influence under KP Harper versus Dion – early summer election?? Mandatory reporting in 2005 Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic Canada • $2B over 5 years for implementation – – – – $1.3B for public transportation $0.77B for transit tax credits 5% ethanol fuel by 2010 CAPS and absolute reductions by 2025 • 40-65% reductions from 2002 baseline by 2050 • Upstream & oil shale produce 1/3rd Canada’s GHG emissions –26.6% growth since 1990 Canada • 18% emissions intensity reduction by 2010, based on 2006 – 2% per year additional thereafter to 2020 • $15-$20 “safety valve” for industry • Alberta has proposed 12% intensity reduction between 7/1 and 12/31/07!! Why not Kyoto? • The United States does NOT intend to undermine the efforts of Kyoto countries BUT • Short time frames are not realistic • Too few countries signed on to Kyoto; emissions would just shift to others What is the U.S. view? • Climate change is a serious issue • It took decades to develop and may take decades to address • Real, global environmental progress requires economic growth The key is to invest in cleaner, more efficient technologies US Climate Change – 2006 emission • Since 1990, intensity down 2% per year • Total emissions have grown 0.9%/yr – 14.4% increase – KP – 7% decrease – CO2 – 83.8%, CH4 8.6%, N2O 5.4%, HFCs+PFCs+SF6 2.2% US Residential Energy Use - 2001 Space Heating 24% Air Conditioning 48% 5% Water Heating Refrigerators 17% 6% Other Appliances & Lighting US Commercial Buildings Energy Use 7% 1995 6% 3% 4% 23% 32% 7% 15% 3% Heating Cooling Ventilation Water Heating Lighting Cooking Refrigeration Office Equipment Other US Total Primary Energy Use by Sector 2005 28% 22% Residential Commercial 18% 32% Industrial Transportation US Legislative/Regulatory Process • Legislative – any Congressman/Senator introduce a bill – Referred to House/Senate Committee – After deliberation, Committee moves to Floor – Floor debate • Sent back to Committee • Voted and Approved – Corresponding Bill in opposite Chamber – Conference Committee resolves differences US Regulatory/Legislative Process • Common Bill forwarded to President for Signature – Veto – Approve • Implements Law – EPA/DOE develop Regulations to implement US Congressional Discussions • 2007 - 4 Major Bills in Senate – same in House • Do “Ds” give Bush this legislation? • White House may be ready to discuss • Lieberman-Warner out of Senate Envr & Public Works Dec., 2007 US Congressional Discussions • Senate Bills include CAP & Trade, reduction targets – Lieberman/McCain • Economy wide • 2004 levels in 2012, 1990 by 2020 • 20% below 1990 in 2030, 60% below in 2050 – Sanders/Boxer • 1990 level in 2020 • 27% below 1990 in 2030, 53% below in 2040, 80% below in 2050 – Bingamen/Specter – introduced July 13 • “upstream” cap & trade in 2012 – 76% “free” • 2006 by 2020, 1990 by 2030 U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE PROPOSALS (GE, DuPont, GM, NRDC coalition) 1 Lieberman-Warner • Allowances – emissions based per MT CO2e • Track emissions – EPA registry, regulations – – – – – Registry w/I 180 days, rules by July 1, 2008 Production, importation, exportation, consumption Annual and quarterly data 2004-=2007 facility data required by March 31, 2009 2008 and beyond–quarterly data w/i 60 days EOQ • Annual w/i 90 days EOY – Subject to verification Lieberman-Warner • Enforcement – $25,000 per day per violation • Emissions Allowances – – – – – 2012 – 2005 levels 2020 – 15% below 2005 2030 – 33% below 2005 2040 – 52% below 2005 2050 – 70% below 2005 Climate Change - States • RGGI announced by 7 NE States – CAP and Trade system CO2 – Begins 2009 w/current level CAP • Frozen until 2015, then gradual reduction – 10% reduction by 2019 – Focus on utilities • Western states announced 2/07 – Links to RGGI – 15% below 2005 in 2020 • Midwest states also considering • US Mayors announced Clinton Climate Initiative, Nov 2007 Climate Change - States • Calif., NM, Oregon, Wash. develop lowcarbon technologies and renewables • NJ introduced Climate Legislation – July – 1990 levels by 2020 – 80% below 2006 in 2050 – California emissions reductions programs US Climate Change - Other • Following Action in 26 Other States – Executive orders – Pending Legislation • 32 States announced common Registry • States implementing/working on reduction plans: – Emissions reductions: Arizona, California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Washington, Wisconsin – Energy reductions only: Colorado, New Hampshire California Climate Action–AB 32 • Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 12/31/20 – Interim reductions 7/1/12, 7/1/16 • Multi-sector, market-based program • Establishes multi-Agency Climate Action Board – CAB establishes GHG Emissions Reduction Plan • Includes economics and benefits • Multi-sector, market-based compliance • 8.2MT CO2 equiv for F Gases – Out of 170MT CO2 Total California Climate Action–AB 32 • CARB maintain GHG inventory • Beginning 1/1/08, annual reports • “Largest stationary source” Mandatory Reporting – Oil & gas extraction, oil refining, electricity, cement, landfills • CARB can adopt fee schedule • Multiple workshops Dec 06-July 07 California Climate Action AB 32 • Discrete Early Action Strategies – implement by 1/1/10 – Low carbon fuel standard – Reduction of MAC refrigerant loss from nonprofessionals – Increased landfill methane capture – Green ports – Reduction consumer products high GWP gases – Reduction PFC in electronics – Truck efficiency – Tire inflation program – SF6 reduction in non electrical • California Climate Action AB 32 Other discrete early actions (direct regulatory action – 44 measures total) – – – – – – – – – – HFC Venting control Ban HFC release servicing/dismantling A/C tightness checking Heavy duty vehicle emissions reduction Cool automobile paints Transport refrigeration, standby electric Business GHG reduction/guidance Anti-idling enforcement High GWP refrigerant tracking/reporting Alternative suppressants in fire suppression systems California Climate Action–AB 32 • Other discrete early actions (direct regulatory action – 23 measures – cont’d) – – – – – – Tire inflation Low GWP MVACs Port electrification Reduction of HFCs in foam Green ships Energy savings from cement mfg • Workshop on Feb 15, 2008 – HVAC & R Climate Change Alliance & Others BAU Scenario of HFC and HCFC Market Demand in U.S. 400 HCFCs HFC Aftermarket 300 Proposed cap 200 HFC allocation under L-W 100 HFCs in original equipment and products 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 2005 Million Tons CO2eq 500 Forms of Regulation for HFCs • Command & Control – Regulations dictate form of solution – Technology Standard; e.g. California Proposed Early Action measures – Ban/Phase-out; e.g. MAC directive – Inspection, repair, refrigerant recover; e.g. HCFC rules in U.S., f-gas regulation • Performance Standards – Probably not applicable to HFCs • Labeling – Probably viewed as not sufficient • Voluntary Programs – Probably viewed as not sufficient Forms of Regulation for HFCs • Market Based Mechanisms – Allows market to decide – Carbon Tax – Government sets the price – Carbon trading (cap and trade) – Likely to be disruptive due to carbon price – HFC cap with allocation; similar to HCFC allocation – Would allow maximum flexibility for market Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) & Carbon Prices Refrigerant/Compound IPCC SAR GWP (Carbon price/kg @ $20/tonne CO2) IPCC/AR4 GWP (Carbon price/kg @ $20/tonne CO2) HCFC-22 1820 HCFC-142b 2310 HFC-152a 140 ($2.80) 124 ($2.48) HFC-32 650 ($13.00) 675 ($13.50) HFC-245fa 1020 ($20.60) HFC-134a 1300 ($26.00) 1430 ($28.60) HFC-4310mee 1300 ($26.00) 1640 ($32.80) HFC-125 2800 ($56.00) 3500 ($70.00) HFC-227ea 2900 ($58.00) 3220 ($64.40) HFC-143a 3800 ($76.00) 4470 ($89.40) R-410A 1725 ($34.50) 2088 ($41.76) R-404A 3260 ($65.20) 3922 ($78.44) Alliance & Others Activity • Montreal Protocol allocation – Essentially CAP & Trade – Declining CAP brought steady rise in product prices, which passed through market – Customers demanded and producers brought lower ODP products to market L- W Title X • Applies to Production, Import including Products or Equipment • Baseline – 300,000,000 MT CO2 • GWPs based on 4th Science Assessment • Excludes recycled, recovered • Destruction credits allowed (HFCs today, ODS?) • Baseline year 2005 – HFC producer, importer, product/equipment importer L-W Title X • Banking (5 year, destruction credit only) and Borrowing (3 year) allowed; borrowing brings 10% interest, 15% quantity limitation • Commences 2010 – 2% prior year declining CAP thru 2050 (70% total decline) • Allocation to: Producers/Importers 2004-2006 and on date of enactment – Basis 100% of HFCs + 60% of HCFCs, GWP weighted avg. 2004-2006 L-W Title X • Auction – 5% of above in 2010, increasing to 100% in 2031 – Proceeds used for: • Recovery/destruction of ODS and GWP gases • Consumer incentives for refrig./cooling equipment – – – – – Refrigerants with low or no GWP Energy efficiency >30% Fed. Energy std and Energy Star Development of low GWP HFCs Development of energy efficient technologies Programs under the broader auction L-W Title X • Permanent retirement not allowed, EPA can reclaim allocations • Allowances not exchangeable with broader program • Regulations 18 months after enactment • No destruction credit for byproducts • Ban on small containers of HFCs (<20 pounds) for MAC Alliance & Others Activities • HFC CAP & Trade Benefits – Orderly transition to next generation technology, including HCFC to HFC transition – Allows strategic business planning for both suppliers/users due to supply/pricing stability – System familiar to regulated community – Provides incentives for technology evolution – Encourages recover/recycling – Discourages frivolous uses Ozone -Science The Ozone Layer Sun Ultraviolet Radiation Ozone layer The ozone layer is a protective blanket that filters out most of the harmful ultraviolet Radiation from the sun. The ozone layer lies in the stratosphere typically between 8 and 25 miles (13 to 40 km) above the Earth’s surface. AFEAS September 1993 Production/Destruction of Stratospheric Ozone Solar Ultraviolet energy O2 (molecular Oxygen) Solar Ultraviolet energy Solar Ultraviolet energy O3 Solar Ultraviolet energy O2 Cl (active Species) Source gases O (atomic Oxygen) Reservoir Components O2 Ozone Destruction cycle O3 (ozone) ClO Production O2 O Destruction (e.g., by chlorine Cl2O2 ClO Variability in the ozone hole Unusual ozone hole in 2002 due to dynamical variability Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Ozone Hole 2007 Global Ozone Depletion Montreal Protocol International Montreal Protocol 2007 HCFC Adjustments Developed Countries • New Schedule • 2010 – 75% Reduction • 2015 – 90 % Reduction • 2020-2030 – 0.5% service • Old Schedule • 65% Reduction • 90% reduction • 0.5% service Montreal Protocol 2007 HCFC Adjustments Developing Countries • New Schedule • 2013 Freeze @ 2009, 2010 average • 2015 10% reduction • 2020 35% reduction • 2025 67.5% reduction • 2030-2040 2.5% service • 2040 phase out • Old Schedule • 2016 – Freeze @ 2015 levels • 2040 – phase out Mexico • Considering HCFC Allocation Program – License=Allocation=Cap and Trade – Focus on HCFC-141b, HCFC-22 – Encouraging consistency with US/Canada • 10 year delay • Incorporate new MP requirements • First in any Developing Country Refrigerant Responsible Use Responsible Use RUP’s – endorsed by Over 30 government & Trade associations Responsible Use Guide • Current steps – – – – – Works w/i framework of RUP Market Sector Specific Being developed by each sector Target audiences in developing countries Voluntary development and implementation Responsible Use Guide Update Fire Protection – first Guide, will be revised Responsible Use Guide Air conditioning & Refrigeration – The newest guide Responsible Use Guides Refrigerators – very Comprehensive for Foams & refrigeration Responsible Use Guide Update • Mobile Air Conditioning – part of IMAC? • HFC Producers – Survey complete – Draft RUG complete • Circulating for company endorsement – Europe, US, Far East • Foams – Survey complete 2005 – Summary complete late 2005 – Yet to find Association to take forward Personal Responses to Climate Change Driving • Drive 10% less –walk, carpool, public transit, in-line skate, telework • Don’t use car A/C, or use sparingly • Give up 2nd vehicle • Don’t idle – stop more than 10 seconds (except in traffic) turn off engine • Drive at posted speed limit 62 mph to 75 mph + 20% more fuel • Cruise Control Driving • Block heater when temp below 32°F – Winter fuel economy 10% • Vehicle maintenance • Tire inflation – 70% of vehicles have one tire over/under inflated • Hybrid-electric vehicles • Remove roof racks when not in use Home • Install energy-efficient furnace • Caulking/weather stripping – could be 20% of heat/ac loses • Energy Star Label – windows/sliding doors • Install storm windows – could be 25% of heat/ac loses • Replace exterior doors • Use window blinds • Furnace maintenance every 2 years – 1o = 5% energy savings – programmable thermostat • Seal/insulate warm air ducts • Upgrade insulation Home Lower thermostat - 2°F=2% heat bill Shut off pilot lights Ceiling Fans - 8¢ - $1.50/month (a/c $6-$40) Remove window a/c in winter Florescent light bulbs – light dimmers, occupancy sensors Window curtains: open in winter, closed in summer Clean/replace a/c-heating filters Turn off all sources of heat in summer: lights, appliances, electrical equipment • Baking/washing/drying/ironing early morning or evening • • • • • • • • Appliances • • • • • • • Clean refrigerator coils regularly Energy Star Unplug second refrigerator or freezer Dishwasher no-heat/air dry cycle, not hand wash Maintain refrigerator @ 35°F, freezer @ 0°F Cloths rinse in cold, wash in warm water Don’t overdry, hang clothes to dry – Purchase dryer with moisture sensor • Hot water tank pre 2004, insulate Appliances • • • • • • • • Purchase front load washer – 40% less water per load Efficient light bulbs-LED or fluorescent Install outdoor automatic timers Computer system with energy-saver option – Computer running full time: $70-$100 energy per year – Use “sleep” or “hibernate” mode – Smart Strip Power Strip Use as little paper as possible Buy right size monitor Turn off computer at night – 1/3rd left on 40% of appliance energy used when off Lawn • • • • • • • Capture/reuse rainwater Leave grass clippings on lawn Water early in morning Avoid chemical use Limit use of gas powered mowers, tools Pool efficiency Plant trees Home Water • • • • • Low-flow showerheads High-efficiency water heaters Quick showers Avoid running the tap Insulate water pipes – (not w/i 6” of exhaust pipe) • Turn off cottage water heater • Turn water off when shaving/brushing teeth