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Global Warming: DC Metro Region Outlook Raghu Raghavan DC Metro Science for the People Agenda Global Warming Problem: Facing Facts Potential Impacts of Climate Change on DC Metro Region Recommended Solutions No Debate Anymore Global Warming largely generated by human activity Global Warming Threat Serious Consensus about CO2 Emissions Reduction DC Metro Area Growth Predictions 1.6 Million New Residents between 2005 and 2030 1.2 Million new jobs Outer suburbs expected to grow faster(47%) Regional Core growth rate(18 – 20%) Source: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) http://www.mwcog.org/ Projected Growth in Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under a Business As Usual Scenario Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft 2005 GHG Emissions Estimates for DC Metro Region Source: DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Inventory Projection for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region 2020 GHG Emissions Estimates for DC Metro Region Source: DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Inventory Projection for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region 2030 GHG Emissions Estimates for DC Metro Region Source: DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Inventory Projection for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region Predicted Effects of Global Warming in DC Metro Region Higher Air and Water Temperatures Increased but Uneven Precipitation Rising Sea Levels Increase in weather extremes Predicted Effects of Rising Sea Levels The impacts of rising sea levels on the Chesapeake Bay and its rivers include: a) Heightened risk and vulnerability of inundation of wetlands and other low-lying lands by storm surges and coastal flooding; b) Saltwater contamination of fresh water used for drinking water and irrigation for some smaller communities utilizing water from the Potomac estuary; and c) Degraded water quality in the Bay and its tributaries, potentially increasing the risk of harmful algal blooms that thrive from runoff, harming fish and crab populations Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft Rising Temperatures Plants and animals currently in the southeastern U.S may migrate north into the Mid-Atlantic. More frequent and severe forest fires expected, threatening ecosystems and human settlements. . Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft Rising Temperatures More frequent heat waves. Occurrence of high ozone days. Higher temperatures produce favorable conditions for ozone-producing chemical reactions Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft Local Effects (DC Specific) Air pollution's negative health impacts Leading cause of ozone and smog One in ten adults and children suffer from asthma Typical summer in DC sends 2,400 people with respiratory related diseases to the hospital and causes 130,000 asthma attacks American Lung Association has rated DC's air quality as an "F” Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS Local Effects (DC Specific) Air pollution's negative health impacts Damage to children's lungs Birth defects affecting heart Harm to the fetus linked to low birth weights and cancer later in life Damage to the cardiovascular system increasing the risk of heart attacks Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS Rising Temperatures (Water) Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), would be adversely impacted by higher water temperatures. Higher water temperatures, if coupled with both increased pollutant runoff in the spring (as a result of changes in precipitation patters) and higher air temperatures during summer months - will likely lead to increased frequency and duration of algal blooms. Lead to degraded water quality Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft DC Metro Region CO2 Emission Reduction Goals COG’s Climate Change Steering Committee recommends establishing regional greenhouse gas reduction goals for three target years: 2012 to force early action, 2020 a medium-range goal to encourage expansion of recommended policies and programs, and 2050 a long-range goal to stimulate support for research into technologies and clean fuels needed to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions. Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft DC Metro Region CO2 Emission Reduction Goals COG’s Climate Change Steering Committee’s Recommended goals are to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 10% below business as usual by 2012; 20% below 2005 levels by 2020; and 80% below 2005 levels by 2050. Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft Comparison of Projected Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under BAU and Proposed Emission Reduction Scenarios: 2005–2050 Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft Solutions Roadmap? Potential Solutions No consensus on solutions Science on solutions clouded by special interests Clean Coal Nuclear Energy Ethanol from Corn Taking Action: Mitigating Emissions From Energy Consumption Improve energy efficiency, Reduce demand for energy, and Develop clean (alternative) energy sources. Taking Action: DC Metro Area Residential Sector Accounts for 33% of total energy demand Weatherization, Using of efficient appliances, Installation of programmable thermostats High efficiency lighting. Taking Action: DC Metro Area Commercial/Industrial Sector Commercial Sector : 46% Industrial Sector: 9% High efficiency lighting Using of efficient appliances Improving the energy performance of commercial buildings can reduce building energy consumption by 10-30 percent. Taking Action: Expand Local Renewable Energy Sources Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal Take Action DC: Congestion Charge? A congestion charge is a payment required of drivers (or owners of vehicles) to enter a designated area of a city, usually the core business area which has the most traffic. Reduces traffic Air pollution levels and Carbon emissions Used in a growing number of cities around the world (e.g., London, Bergen (Norway), Stockholm (Sweden), and Singapore). Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS Take Action DC: Congestion Charge? Spike in carbon emissions from 2001 to 2005 Two times the national rate Increases commuting from the suburbs Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS Congestion Charge (London) London experience with its congestion charge shows its significant benefits: Traffic congestion has been reduced 30%, Carbon dioxide emissions declined by more than 15%, Reductions in nitrogen oxide (8%) and particulates (7%). Revenues accrued went to subsidizing the London Underground and bus use, Students now ride free, Bus system being expanded, Quickest and cheapest way to increase mass transit capacity. The next stage will include emission-based charging, targeting SUVs and other vehicles with the highest carbon emissions. Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS Cost of congestion, and revenues to reduce it Annual cost of congestion in the DC estimated to be as high as $3.2 billion. Resources for the Future estimates $60 million in revenue would result from a $4.70 toll for entering the downtown area, Reduces congestion costs by $94 million per year. Just as London, DC should use congestion charge revenues to expand bus service and progressively lower their cost to riders. Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS Environmental, economic and social justice are inseparable Nearly 30,000 DC households are at or below 50% of poverty level 11,000 live between 50% and 74% 10,000 live between 75% and 99% DC Households earning under 50% of the Federal Poverty Level pay 49.8% of their annual income for home energy bills. Source: Fact Sheet: 17-492, “The Clean and Affordable Energy Act of 2008” Environmental, economic and social justice Greatest benefit to its working class majority Low and middle income residents Particularly their children Other steps to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions Enforce and improve the idling laws Implement a parking surtax Require businesses to give their workers a cost-of-travel bonus if they travel by public transportation Implement a hybrid and then fully electric conversion program for the replacing the District’s taxis. Encourage bicycle use by expanding bike lanes Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS Conclusion