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History and Transitions of Global Warming Programs and Policies Harnessing the power of markets . . . to protect and improve the environment. April 2004 Wiley Barbour Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003. Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT. Early History of Global Warming Science • 1824- Jean Baptiste Joseph FourierFirst described greenhouse effect • 1896- Svante ArrheniusBurning coal emits CO2 which warms earth • 1938- Guy CallendarMan changing atmosphere, may lead to warming “As man is now changing the composition of the atmosphere at a rate which must be very exceptional on the geological time scale, it is natural to seek for the probable effects of such a change. From the best laboratory observations it appears that the principal result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide . . . would be a gradual increase in the mean temperature of the colder regions of the earth.” —G. S. Callendar (1939), British Steam Engineer Indicators of the Human Influence on the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era . a) Different symbols denote ice core data for several sites in Antarctica and Greenland b) Lines indicate sulphate concentrations in ice cores in Greenland. Pluses denote the regional estimated SO2 emissions. Source: IPCC WG I (Science) Summary for Policy-Makers, Third Assessment Report, 2001. 1950s - 1960s – 1970s • Early 1950s- Global warming theories get revived attention • 1958- Keeling begins monitoring of CO2 in atmosphere at Mauna Loa, Hawaii and the South Pole. • Early 70s- Four major climate modeling centers established • 1979- World Climate Conference 1980s • 1987- Montreal Protocol established timeline for phase-out of CFCs – Successful linkage between science and policy communities – Many of the key players turned their attention next to global climate change 1989- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) launched to provide assessment of science 1992 “Earth Summit” Rio de Janeiro, Brazil • Framework Convention on Climate Change • • • • (FCCC) signed by 154 nations Came into effect March 21, 1994 Currently ratified by 155 nations including the United States Goal: “avoid dangerous interference with the climate system” How to enforce? Designing a Compliance Framework • Legally binding vs Non-binding • All GHGs vs CO2 only • Pledge-based vs Principal-based • Type of coverage: – Project – Sector – National – regional Types of Commitments: • International carbon TAX • Internationally harmonized POLICIES AND • • • • MEASURES Fixed emission target: CAP ON EMISSIONS (Kyoto) Dynamic emission target: LIMIT ON EMISSIONS relative to GDP growth Dual emission targets: “SAFE ZONE” between a high and a low target Emission Target with COST CAP (safety valve) 1995 COP-1 Berlin, Germany • The first meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-1) under the UNFCCC • Berlin Mandate – Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives within specified time-frames – “Targets and Timetables” 1997 COP-3 Kyoto, Japan • Kyoto Protocol • Caps emissions from developed countries and • economies in transition “Annex I Parties” agreed to – – – – reduce their overall emissions of six greenhouse gases, by at least 5% below 1990 levels, between 2008 and 2012 (the first commitment period), specific targets varying from country to country. • Emissions trading of Allowances and Project • Reductions Registries Required to Track Progress Recent US Climate Policy • Withdraw from international negotiations • Voluntary Programs and Partnerships – PCA, Climate Leaders, Pew Center, CCX • California Climate Action Registry • Regional GHG Initiative – Mandatory Cap on CO2 – Lead by NY and including NY, NJ and NE states Different registries for different purposes Registry Purpose Example 3rd party Type of Provider Likely Audit reductions Promise regulatory acceptance “Hall of good 1605 (b) deeds” None All types No promise Low Baseline protection State level May be registry required efforts Direct & Some will indirect lobby on distinguished behalf of registrant Market foundation ERT GHG Required Registry Direct with ownership only Medium Pedigree of High tons adds value GHG Partnerships, Registries and Trading Platforms Voluntary CA Registry DOE 1605(b) US CCX Climate Savers OR Climate Trust Climate Leaders JI RGGI ERT EDF PCA ET ERUPT/ CERUPT KP CDM PCF Australia GHG Challenge GERT Compliance/Mandatory “ERs” for retirement Canada VCR Clean Air Canada BPI DK ETS UK ETS Recommendations for North Carolina • Develop Comprehensive multi-year Climate Protection • Action Plan Encourage GHG mitigation via – Binding Cap on Emissions, or Voluntary Emission Registry • Projects that work in NC: –Methane reductions from agricultural wastes –Methane reductions from confined animal feed operations –Carbon sequestration in forests and soils –Renewable energy that displaces fossils fuels • Level the playing field for Renewables: –Strive toward new RPS standards –Use NOx set-aside as a solid first step NC Greenpower will not stimulate demand for renewables at current price levels C&I “Sweet Spot” ($60-180) Solar Residential NC Greenpower $40 Avg Utility Greenpower $26 C&I NC Greenpower $22.50 Wind ($4-20) Southeast Biomass ($4-6) Biomass ($1-6) Geothermal ($2-5) Small Hydro ($2-4) LFG ($1–3) 5 10 15 20 25 REC Price ($ per MWh) 60 180 Will North Carolina Continue to Lead? Wiley Barbour Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. 202-785-8577 x14 [email protected] Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003. Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT.