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Preparing for Climate Change in Washington State Amy Snover, PhD Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans University of Washington February 16, 2006 The Water Center: Annual Review Climate Science in the Public Interest What do we know about climate change? Climate is changing Changes in snowpack and streamflow caused by rising temperatures will have important consequences for resources across the Pacific Northwest These changes are likely to be most acute during the summer, exacerbating existing conflicts February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Climate Impacts Group Climate change will force resource managers and planners to deal with increasingly complex tradeoffs between different management objectives. USFWS WA Dept. of Ecology Climate Impacts Group February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Climate Impacts Group Choices and change Climate changes projected for the next few decades are largely unavoidable Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s impacts Planning should begin now February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ A Sea Change in Perceptions Evolving regional engagement in planning for climate change… 1995 Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info 1997 First regional-scale examination of climate change impacts on PNW Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change, unprepared to use such information, and desired information at a finer scale than typical climate change analysis 2001 Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant threat to regional water resources & acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning 2001- present Increasing public & private pressure on resource management agencies to include climate change impacts in long-term planning 2005 A state-wide conference draws 600+ managers, etc. to discuss how best to prepare for climate change. Washington State promises to head follow-up February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Guiding Principles for Planning 600+ attendees familiarize themselves with climate impacts and begin strategizing methods of preparing for/adapting to climate changes Breakout Topics: agriculture coastal areas fish/shellfish Participants 15% flooding/stormwater/wastewater 14% 6% Business 15% Other Local Government 15% State Government Federal Government Non-profit 35% forestry hydropower municipal water supply Conference Outcomes Climate change impacts on water unite all sectors February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Conference Recommendations Address information gaps monitoring Campbell Scientific February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Conference Recommendations Address information gaps monitoring more detailed climate impacts February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Conference Recommendations Address information gaps monitoring more details on climate impacts improve provision of information: education/outreach/translation improve linkages between science and management February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Conference Recommendations Address information gaps Develop new approaches to decision making Design for surprises. Policies & management practices should be flexible. Develop risk management approaches. Picasso – The Acrobat (1930) www.georgetown.edu February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Conference Recommendations Information gaps New approaches to decision making Take actions to increase the resilience of regional systems fish & shellfish urban water supply forestry agriculture … Log weirs placed in a small coastal Washington stream to create pools and habitat for coho salmon. NWFSC. February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Conference Recommendations Information gaps New approaches to decision making Increase the resilience of regional systems Factor climate change into existing & future plans & regulations February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Who’s Preparing for Change in the PNW? Snohomish Basin Salmon Recovery Forum Northwest Power and Conservation Council Seattle (City Auditor, SPU) King County Washington (DOE, CTED) USFS (Okanogan, Wenatchee & Colville longterm forest management plans) Gov. Gregoire’s 2006 Energy Policy Brief: “Goal #4: Address Global Warming Washington State is facing climate issues, such as lower snow packs and summer droughts, which will only become worse as global warming advances. … The Governor will convene a forum of the state’s top economists to analyze the economic impacts of climate change based on the latest scientific information and a state inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. This process will provide the foundation to make effective decisions about critical, longterm infrastructure investments, and to further reduce greenhouse gases.” February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ By preparing for a changing climate, we can build the ecological, political & socioeconomic capacity required to cope with climate change in Washington state. The time to start is yesterday now! February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ More information on PNW climate impacts and planning for climate change is available from The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/cig February 16, 2006 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/