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PNW Climate Change Impacts & Related Studies Marketa McGuire Elsner Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington November 28, 2007 Public Meeting of the League of Women Voters Climate science in the public interest Why Climate Change Matters The PNW’s ecosystems, communities, and economy are sensitive to changes in climate. Global and regional climate is already changing, and these changes are expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected in the next few decades are largely unavoidable. Local governments are on the front line with respect to dealing with climate impacts. Models using natural forcings only Models using natural and anthropogenic forcings Observations 21st Century Warming in the PNW Precipitation Projections - 21st Century Trend in Apr 1 Snowpack 1950-2000 824 snow courses 73% – trends Large – trends PNW Some + trends SW Lower Spring Snowpack Spring snowpack is projected to decline as more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, especially in warmer mid-elevation basins +4°F, +4.5% winter precip Snowpack will melt earlier with warmer spring temperatures April 1 Snowpack Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches River Basin Associated with 2°C Warming 120 Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm) 100 80 Impacts: •Increased winter flow •Earlier and reduced peak flows •Reduced summer flow volume •Reduced late summer low flow 1950 60 plus2c 40 20 0 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Impacts on Water Resources Warmer temperatures: More water, less snow in winter mid- , low elevations Less water in summer Increased risk of winter flooding in many basins (changes in urban flooding less clear) Increased risk of summer drought Negative impacts on hydropower production, irrigation water supply, instream flow protection More stress on urban water supplies Overall: climate change will require increasingly complex tradeoffs between competing management objectives Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303 Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx Human Health Infrastructure Agriculture Coast Lines Water Resources A comprehensive state climate change assessment that includes the impacts of global warming Forest Resources Energy Salmon Adaptation / Legal Barriers Hydrologic Scenarios Database for the Columbia River Basin Working in Coordination With Regional Stakeholders Ecology BPA NPCC State of OR British Columbia (BC Hydro, Ministry of Environment) Planning Framework Incorporating Climate Information and Uncertainty ~20 GCMs 2 Emissions Scenarios 2 Downscaling Approaches Large Scale Planning Studies WRIA Water Supply Planning Specific Planning Studies • Motivation for writing grew out of October 2005 King County climate change conference • Written by the CIG and King County, WA in association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability • Written to compliment ICLEI’s “Climate Resilient Communities” Program • Focused on the process (not a sector), and written for a national audience www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml Why Climate Change Matters Global and regional climate is already changing These changes are expected to accelerate in the coming decades Changes in snowpack and streamflow caused by rising temperatures will have important consequences for resources across the Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Group strives to provide information and tools to help planning and adaptation More information on PNW climate impacts and planning for climate change is available from The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/cig Marketa McGuire Elsner [email protected] Climate science in the public interest 21st Century Global Warming Projected range of globalscale warming by the 2090s: 3.2°F-7.2°F Warming expected through 21st century even if CO2 emissions end today due to persistence of greenhouse gases. Estimated atmospheric lifetime of major greenhouse gas (per molecule) Carbon Dioxide ~60% of warming from GHG 5 to 200 years Methane ~20% of warming from GHG 8 to 12 years Nitrous Oxide ~6% of warming from GHG ~120 years CF4 (Perfluoromethane) >50,000 years Data source: IPCC 2001 ImpactsRegional on OtherImpacts PNW Resources • Salmon: increased stress from floods, warm streams, low summer streamflows • Forests: increased risk of wildfire, vulnerability to insects, decreased growth & regeneration • Coasts: inundation, erosion, habitat loss, flooding • Agriculture: increased production?, decreased irrigation supply, increased heat stress/insects • Recreation/Tourism: shortened winter ski season (improved access?), summer impacts from forest fires • Hydropower: increased winter production, lower summer production Overall: climate change will require increasingly complex trade-offs between competing management objectives On-Line Survey Website Project Scope http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=daSOYBVOb238oFy6ia7bcA_3d_3d