Download hamlet_harc_oct_2003 - UW Hydro

Designing a Regional Integrated Climate
Research Program for the Pacific
Northwest: Evolving Research Strategies in
the University of Washington Climate
Impacts Group
JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System
Climate Impacts Group
and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
October, 2003
Alan F. Hamlet
Edward L. Miles
Amy K. Snover
People in the Climate Impacts Group
PI: Edward L. Miles (human dimensions)
Principals:
Robert Francis (aquatic ecosystems)
Dennis P. Lettenmaier (hydrology and water resources)
Nathan Mantua (climate dynamics)
Philip W. Mote (education and outreach)
Richard Palmer (water resources management)
David L. Peterson (forests)
Amy K. Snover (integration and synthesis)
The Climate Impacts Group: The Big Picture
SECTORS
 Water Resources
 Salmon +
[Agriculture]
[Human Health]
 Forests
 Coasts
SCOPE of WORK
 Human Dimensions
Climate Variability
• past variations and their impacts
• ability of institutions to respond to extremes
Climate Change
• regional consequences of global warming
• adaptation/vulnerability
Climate Impact Science
The study of how climate, natural resources, and
human socio-economic systems affect each other
climate
CLIMATE
IMPACTS
SCIENCE
socioeconomic
systems
natural
resources
Research Approach
•
•
•
•
•
Understand regional climate variability
Analyze impacts of climate variations on natural and
human systems
Investigate institutional responses to climatic
stresses
Assess societal sensitivity, adaptability and
vulnerability to climate variability
Use evidence from retrospective studies as basis
for projecting sensitivity, adaptability and
vulnerability to climate change
To Begin: A Simple Vertical Integration Framework
with a One-Dimensional Horizontal Linkage to
Climate.
Hydrology and Water Resources
Forests
Climate
Aquatic Ecosystems
Coastal Systems
Human Dimensions Research
Human Dimensions Research was an integrated component in each sector.
Identify Global/Regional Climate Drivers
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
El Niño Southern Oscillation
A history of the PDO
A history of ENSO
warm
warm
cool
1900 1910
1920
1930 1940 1950
1960 1970 1980
1990 2000
1900 1910
1920
1930 1940 1950
1960 1970 1980
1990 2000
Assemble and Analyze Observational Data Sets
Annual Flow at The Dalles 1858-1998
600000
5 events
500000
2 events
400000
300000
200000
100000
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
0
Identify Broad-Based Functional Relationships
450000
Cool
Cool
Warm
Warm
350000
300000
250000
200000
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
150000
1900
Apr-Sept Flow (cfs)
400000
Log10 mean flow, The Dalles, OR (cfs)
Extend Data Sets to Paleoclimatic Time Scales
5.5
red = observed, blue = reconstructed
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
Year
1900
1925
1950
1975
Source: Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson and Nathan J. Mantua. (in review). Columbia
River Flow and Drought Since 1750. Submitted to Journal of the American
Water Resources Association.
2000
Temperature Reconstructions from Geoduck
Growth Rings 1835-1998
Mean of four series at Protection Island
Are Strom, UW
Construct Analytical Tools
VIC
Hydrology Model
ColSim
Reservoir
Model
Construct Forecasting Systems
Ensemble
Streamflow
Forecast
ENSO
Climate
Forecast
PDO
Run Initialized
Hydrologic Model
Select Temperature and Precipitation Data
from Historic Record Associated with
Forecast Climate Category
Forecasting Salmon Returns
Oregon
coho
salmon
survival
Coastal Ocean Conditions
Sea surface temperatures
Sea level
Nearshore winds
Fall
Jack returns
Winter
Plankton surveys
Run-size forecast
Run-size forecast
(using SST forecast)
(using obs’d conditions)
Spring
Harvest & allocation
decisions (February)
Summer
Fishery
Project Impacts Forwards in Time
VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalent
for Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios)
Current Climate
2020s
Snow Water Equivalent (mm)
2040s
Examine the Response of Complex Systems
Millions of pounds landed
The Northwest Salmon Crisis:
commercial landings in the Columbia River 1863-1993
30
20
10
Evaluate Institutional Components and Characteristics
Mapping institutional frameworks
Identify players
Characterize laws, treaties, rules and
constraints
Determine interactions
Analyze individual institutions
Ability of Managers
And Policy Makers
To Respond to
Climate Information
And
Forecasts
Education
Outreach
Workshops
Human Dimensions
Research
Work with stakeholders
Benefits to CIG:
• Use of climate forecasts by
natural resources managers
• Perceived value of climate
information
• Decision calendars
• Institutional constraints on
adaptability
• Areas of vulnerability
Benefits to stakeholders:
• Tools for planning
- resource forecasts
- regional & resource-specific
interpretations of global
climate change
• Reliable and responsive
source of information about
climate outlooks and climate
predictability
Strategies
• Continual networking to identify partnerships
• Workshops & surveys provide means for initial contact
• Capitalize on climate events
• Long-term commitment
Create Functional Linkages Between
Academic Research and Management
Agencies
Academic
Research
Climate research
Hydrologic studies
Integrated assessment
Adaptation strategies
Resource
Management
Formal planning exercises
Monitoring
Infrastructure
Management
Planning for Climate Change:
Water Resources in the Columbia
basin
Water policy workshops have highlighted the need to inject
climate change information into existing river basin planning
activities and to provide free access to streamflow scenarios.
Partners:
Northwest Power
Planning Council
Idaho Dept of Water
Resources
City of Portland
Oregon Water Dept.
Seattle Public Utility
www.ce.washington.edu/~hamleaf/climate_change_streamflows/CR_cc.htm
Planning for climate
change: municipal water
supply
Average Monthly Bull Run Inflows
1950-1999
Current Climate
PCM3 2040
ECHAM4 2040
HadCM2 2040
HadCM3 2040
2200
2000
1800
Inflows, cfs
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
FUTURE WATER DEMAND
IN PORTLAND (OR):
Regional growth: +40 mgd
Climate change: +20 mgd
600
400
200
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
ECHAM4 Decade 2040 Climate Change Impacts
Measured as Difference in Annual Minimum Storage less Shortfalls
Sep from Current Climate/Current Demands (2000 Demands)
14,000
12,000
10,000
Million Galllons
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS on WEST-SIDE
MUNICIPAL SYSTEMS:
Decreased spring streamflow
Increased demands
Regional planning & infrastructure investments
1952
1966
1968
1982
1987
1992
1994
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Climate impact on
hydrology
Climate impact on
demand
Impact of growth on
demand 2040
Impact of climate
change on 2040
demand and
hydrology
Synthesize the Vertical Research Findings
A Few Examples:
•PNW Regional Assessment Report (Mote et al. 1999)
(Part of the National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change)
•Integrated Assessment of Columbia River Water Resources (Miles et
al. 2000)
•Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin (Hamlet, 2003)
•Fisheries Management Applications (Mantua and Francis, 2003)
•Ongoing Workshops on Water Management, Water Policy, Fisheries
Management, Forests Resources, Coastal Systems in the Context of
Climate Variability and Climate Change
A Vision for the Future:
Increasing Horizontal & Vertical
Integration
Objective: To develop a capability to answer
questions from policymakers concerning
impacts and policies at the different time/space
scales at which climate, natural ecosystems,
and human social systems interact.
One-Dimensional Horizontal Integration
Hydrology and Water Resources
Forests
Climate
Aquatic Ecosystems
Coastal Systems
Multi-Dimensional Horizontal Integration
Hydrologic
Cycle
Forests
Rivers
Global Climate
Drivers
Water Resources
Management
Estuaries
Salmon
Coastal Ocean
Open Ocean
Fisheries Management
Focus on Subsets of the Multi-Dimensional Problem
Hydrologic
Cycle
Forests
Rivers
Global Climate
Drivers
Water Resources
Management
Estuaries
Salmon
Coastal Ocean
Open Ocean
Fisheries Management
Conclusions:
A simple organizational structure based on a one-dimensional
“horizontal” linkage between climate research and a group of
“vertically integrated” research teams in several traditional
academic disciplines has proven to be a useful one for the
Climate Impacts Group.
This research strategy has laid the foundation for future work
with increasing horizontal integration between sectors.
Research on the capacity of existing institutions identified
important research needs and fundamentally altered the CIG’s
strategy for education and outreach.
CIG Partnerships with regional stakeholders has been a very
productive avenue in the context of creating linkages between
academia and management agencies, and in the process of
developing and refining pilot climate forecast applications.