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Designing a Regional Integrated Climate Research Program for the Pacific Northwest: Evolving Research Strategies in the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington October, 2003 Alan F. Hamlet Edward L. Miles Amy K. Snover People in the Climate Impacts Group PI: Edward L. Miles (human dimensions) Principals: Robert Francis (aquatic ecosystems) Dennis P. Lettenmaier (hydrology and water resources) Nathan Mantua (climate dynamics) Philip W. Mote (education and outreach) Richard Palmer (water resources management) David L. Peterson (forests) Amy K. Snover (integration and synthesis) The Climate Impacts Group: The Big Picture SECTORS Water Resources Salmon + [Agriculture] [Human Health] Forests Coasts SCOPE of WORK Human Dimensions Climate Variability • past variations and their impacts • ability of institutions to respond to extremes Climate Change • regional consequences of global warming • adaptation/vulnerability Climate Impact Science The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socio-economic systems affect each other climate CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE socioeconomic systems natural resources Research Approach • • • • • Understand regional climate variability Analyze impacts of climate variations on natural and human systems Investigate institutional responses to climatic stresses Assess societal sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability to climate variability Use evidence from retrospective studies as basis for projecting sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability to climate change To Begin: A Simple Vertical Integration Framework with a One-Dimensional Horizontal Linkage to Climate. Hydrology and Water Resources Forests Climate Aquatic Ecosystems Coastal Systems Human Dimensions Research Human Dimensions Research was an integrated component in each sector. Identify Global/Regional Climate Drivers Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation A history of the PDO A history of ENSO warm warm cool 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Assemble and Analyze Observational Data Sets Annual Flow at The Dalles 1858-1998 600000 5 events 500000 2 events 400000 300000 200000 100000 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 0 Identify Broad-Based Functional Relationships 450000 Cool Cool Warm Warm 350000 300000 250000 200000 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 150000 1900 Apr-Sept Flow (cfs) 400000 Log10 mean flow, The Dalles, OR (cfs) Extend Data Sets to Paleoclimatic Time Scales 5.5 red = observed, blue = reconstructed 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 Year 1900 1925 1950 1975 Source: Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson and Nathan J. Mantua. (in review). Columbia River Flow and Drought Since 1750. Submitted to Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 2000 Temperature Reconstructions from Geoduck Growth Rings 1835-1998 Mean of four series at Protection Island Are Strom, UW Construct Analytical Tools VIC Hydrology Model ColSim Reservoir Model Construct Forecasting Systems Ensemble Streamflow Forecast ENSO Climate Forecast PDO Run Initialized Hydrologic Model Select Temperature and Precipitation Data from Historic Record Associated with Forecast Climate Category Forecasting Salmon Returns Oregon coho salmon survival Coastal Ocean Conditions Sea surface temperatures Sea level Nearshore winds Fall Jack returns Winter Plankton surveys Run-size forecast Run-size forecast (using SST forecast) (using obs’d conditions) Spring Harvest & allocation decisions (February) Summer Fishery Project Impacts Forwards in Time VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalent for Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios) Current Climate 2020s Snow Water Equivalent (mm) 2040s Examine the Response of Complex Systems Millions of pounds landed The Northwest Salmon Crisis: commercial landings in the Columbia River 1863-1993 30 20 10 Evaluate Institutional Components and Characteristics Mapping institutional frameworks Identify players Characterize laws, treaties, rules and constraints Determine interactions Analyze individual institutions Ability of Managers And Policy Makers To Respond to Climate Information And Forecasts Education Outreach Workshops Human Dimensions Research Work with stakeholders Benefits to CIG: • Use of climate forecasts by natural resources managers • Perceived value of climate information • Decision calendars • Institutional constraints on adaptability • Areas of vulnerability Benefits to stakeholders: • Tools for planning - resource forecasts - regional & resource-specific interpretations of global climate change • Reliable and responsive source of information about climate outlooks and climate predictability Strategies • Continual networking to identify partnerships • Workshops & surveys provide means for initial contact • Capitalize on climate events • Long-term commitment Create Functional Linkages Between Academic Research and Management Agencies Academic Research Climate research Hydrologic studies Integrated assessment Adaptation strategies Resource Management Formal planning exercises Monitoring Infrastructure Management Planning for Climate Change: Water Resources in the Columbia basin Water policy workshops have highlighted the need to inject climate change information into existing river basin planning activities and to provide free access to streamflow scenarios. Partners: Northwest Power Planning Council Idaho Dept of Water Resources City of Portland Oregon Water Dept. Seattle Public Utility www.ce.washington.edu/~hamleaf/climate_change_streamflows/CR_cc.htm Planning for climate change: municipal water supply Average Monthly Bull Run Inflows 1950-1999 Current Climate PCM3 2040 ECHAM4 2040 HadCM2 2040 HadCM3 2040 2200 2000 1800 Inflows, cfs 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 FUTURE WATER DEMAND IN PORTLAND (OR): Regional growth: +40 mgd Climate change: +20 mgd 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug ECHAM4 Decade 2040 Climate Change Impacts Measured as Difference in Annual Minimum Storage less Shortfalls Sep from Current Climate/Current Demands (2000 Demands) 14,000 12,000 10,000 Million Galllons CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS on WEST-SIDE MUNICIPAL SYSTEMS: Decreased spring streamflow Increased demands Regional planning & infrastructure investments 1952 1966 1968 1982 1987 1992 1994 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Climate impact on hydrology Climate impact on demand Impact of growth on demand 2040 Impact of climate change on 2040 demand and hydrology Synthesize the Vertical Research Findings A Few Examples: •PNW Regional Assessment Report (Mote et al. 1999) (Part of the National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change) •Integrated Assessment of Columbia River Water Resources (Miles et al. 2000) •Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin (Hamlet, 2003) •Fisheries Management Applications (Mantua and Francis, 2003) •Ongoing Workshops on Water Management, Water Policy, Fisheries Management, Forests Resources, Coastal Systems in the Context of Climate Variability and Climate Change A Vision for the Future: Increasing Horizontal & Vertical Integration Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the different time/space scales at which climate, natural ecosystems, and human social systems interact. One-Dimensional Horizontal Integration Hydrology and Water Resources Forests Climate Aquatic Ecosystems Coastal Systems Multi-Dimensional Horizontal Integration Hydrologic Cycle Forests Rivers Global Climate Drivers Water Resources Management Estuaries Salmon Coastal Ocean Open Ocean Fisheries Management Focus on Subsets of the Multi-Dimensional Problem Hydrologic Cycle Forests Rivers Global Climate Drivers Water Resources Management Estuaries Salmon Coastal Ocean Open Ocean Fisheries Management Conclusions: A simple organizational structure based on a one-dimensional “horizontal” linkage between climate research and a group of “vertically integrated” research teams in several traditional academic disciplines has proven to be a useful one for the Climate Impacts Group. This research strategy has laid the foundation for future work with increasing horizontal integration between sectors. Research on the capacity of existing institutions identified important research needs and fundamentally altered the CIG’s strategy for education and outreach. CIG Partnerships with regional stakeholders has been a very productive avenue in the context of creating linkages between academia and management agencies, and in the process of developing and refining pilot climate forecast applications.