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Four students were discussing how plants might react to the current change in climate. This is what they said: Cassy: “I think plant species will adapt to climate changes and continue to exist as they do now.” Will: “I think some plant species will adapt to climate changes but others will not adapt – these will not survive climate changes.” Jeremy: “I think plant species will acclimate to the climate changes and continue to exist as they do now.” Samantha: “I think plant species prefer the climate in which they grow best and will shift to be in the preferred climate if the climate changes.” Coniferous Forest Grassland Deciduous Forest AREA: 5,400 acres (~9 sq. mi.) Major Research Themes CO2 & Global Climate Change Studies Biodiversity & Global Warming Studies [2001 - 2005] Fornara & Tilman (Ecology, 2009) [2004 - 2006] Grades 7-12 programming Students from Edison High School, Minneapolis, MN, measuring light levels in the prairie. Professional development workshops in ecology for educators THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE? HOW MAY CHANGES IN CLIMATE AFFECT MINNESOTA’S ECOSYSTEMS? WELCOME TO LAKE SUPERIOR? IT’S ALL ABOUT THE CLIMATE… CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time. Wikipedia …AND THE BIOMES THAT RESULT NORTH AMERICA’S BIOMES A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type. Wikipedia MINNESOTA’S BIOMES MN DNR Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes. WHERE THE CLIMATE GOES, SO GOES THE BIOMES… TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION (Solar Radiation) (Amount & Timing) SOIL MOISTURE (Evapotranspiration) Pearson Education GLOBAL BIOMES “SURVIVE & THRIVE” AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE -20oF 0oF 30oF 41oF 60oF 80oF RANGES -14oF BOREAL FOREST 60oF 39oF DECIDUOUS 72oF 10oF GRASSLAND 80oF AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES 10in. 20in. 26in. 35in. 45in. 60in. 15in. BOREAL FOREST 25in. 10in. GRASSLAND 40in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 35in. 60in. CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES 66cm (26in.) U.S. 5oC (41oF) Sub-Arctic N Boreal TEMPERATURE U.S.: -26-16oC (-14-60oF) U.S.: -12-27oC (10-80oF) S Sub-Tropical Temperate B U.S.: 2-22oC (35-72oF) PRECIPITATION W Arid 25-87cm (10-35in) Semi-Arid Semi-Mesic 40-100cm (15-40in) E Mesic 65-150cm (25-60in) SOIL MOISTURE U.S. Estimated Water Budget Evapotranspiration 67% Surface Runoff 29% Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2% Wikipedia USGS SOIL MOISTURE N W E S NORTH AMERICA’S PRAIRIE-FOREST BORDER ? U.S. CLIMATE & BIOMES PROFILE Major Biomes NOAA - NWS WHAT IS MINNESOTA’S CURRENT CLIMATE? (Averaged over the past 100 years) DO THESE AVERAGES LOOK FAMILIAR? TEMPERATURE: 41oF annual avg. PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg. CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES 66cm (26in.) U.S. 5oC (41oF) 51oF 42oF U.S. 39oF 39oF (1971-2000) 42oF 45oF 45oF 51oF CLIMATE ISOLINES 54oF 48oF 58oF 51oF 62oF 54oF 64oF 58oF 72oF 68oF 68oF 62oF 64oF 72oF 72oF 100” 12” 8” (1971-2000) 16” 20” 24” 40” 28” 32” 36” 28” 36” 40” 4” 50” 64oF <4” 8” 60” TEMPERATURE ISOLINES TEMPERATURE 37oF 41oF 44oF NWS PRECIPITATION ISOLINES 23in NWS 26in 35in PRECIPITATION 40in ISOLINE CONVERGENCE POINT TEMPERATURE 37oF 41oF 44oF NWS 23in 26in 35in PRECIPITATION CURRENT MN CLIMATE OF 2010 66cm (26in.) 5oC (41oF) MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR HAVE THERE BEEN CHANGES IN MN’S CLIMATE? IPCC TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900-1930) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 36oF 40oF 1930 St. Cloud Area 41oF 43oF NWS adapted by C. Lehman 26in 34in 31in 22in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 19in TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930-2000) Detroit Lakes Area Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 37oF 39oF 2010 41oF 44oF NWS adapted by C. Lehman 35in 30in 38in 26in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 23in MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST About a 100 mile shift 2010 1930 DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S FUTURE CLIMATE? 2100 TEMPERATURE 3.5 – 4.0oC (6.3 – 7.2oF) INCREASE 5oC (41oF) Current Avg. becomes 9oC (48oF) Predicted Avg. PRECIPITATION 5 – 10% (1.3 – 2.6 in.) INCREASE 26 in. Current Avg. becomes 28 in. Predicted Avg. IPCC, 2007 USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al. TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010-2100) o 41 F 2100 Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 44oF 48oF 51oF 33in 37in 40in 28in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 26in NWS adapted by C. Lehman Oh, Canada! PREDICTED MN CLIMATE OF 2100 71cm (28in.) 9oC (48oF) MINNESOTA BIOMES 2100 DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND About a 300 mile shift 2100 Plant Hardiness Zones USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation Projected (2100) USDA-Forest Service SO, MAYBE NOT THIS… PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THIS… SO, HOW WILL THE TREES MIGRATE? Luka Luka SUCCESSION, DISTURBANCE & COMPETITION MN DNR Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve 2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE East Bethel, MN 55005 (763) 434-5131 www.cedarcreek.umn.edu [email protected] HOW ARE SCIENTISTS AT CEDAR CREEK STUDYING THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MINNESOTA’S ECOSYSTEMS? Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve 2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE East Bethel, MN 55005 (763) 434-5131 www.cedarcreek.umn.edu [email protected]