Download Dias nummer 1 - Atmospheric Composition Change

The effect of climate and climate change
on ammonia emissions in Europe
Camilla Geels1 and Carsten Ambelas Skjøth 2
1Department
of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark.
2 National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, UK.
With contributions from
Ole Hertel, Jesper H. Christensen, Steen Gyldenkærne, Thomas Ellermann,
Helle Vibeke Andersen, Jørgen Brandt
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark.
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Link between the trends in human population
and NH3 use throughout the twentieth century:
The Haber-Bosch
process “the most
important invention of
the 20th century” made
it possible to produce
ammonia (NH3) from
hydrogen and nitrogen
Converts nitrogen into a
bioavailable form!
From: How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world
Erisman et al., Nature Geoscience 1, 636 - 639 (2008).
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NH3 mission changes globally and in Europe:
European Environment Agency (EEA).
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Current regional CTM studies of NH3:
Seasonal factor for snap 10
(source: EURODELTA)
1.6
Factor
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Month
Annual emission inventories
Based on national emissions factors.
Standard temporal profiles.
BUT: NH3 emissions from agricultural production are very sensitive
to climatic drivers (temperature, water availability).
A central question in the ECLAIRE project is:
“Will climate warming increase NH3 emissions and to what extend
will this hinder NH3 mitigation efforts?”
A different approach is needed.
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The Danish Dynamic NH3 emission model
Was originally developed
for Denmark[1,2] – now
extended to part of
Europe[3].
Function
Based on:
1.) 16 different functions
describing the temporal
variation in NH3 emissions
from various activities.
2.) information on number
and type of animals, type
of crop, sale of
manure/fertilizer etc.
So this is required on as
high spatial resolution as
possible.
Description
Fkt 1
Animal houses with forced ventilation
Fkt 2
Open animal houses (non-forced ventilation)
Fkt 3
Manure storages
Fkt 4
Winter crops (no emission simulated in this study)
Fkt 5
Spring crops (no emission simulated in this study)
Fkt 6
Late spring crops (no emission simulated in this study)
Fkt 7
Grass
Fkt 8
Spring application of manure on bare soil
Fkt 9
Application of manure on crops
Fkt 10
Summer application of manure
Fkt 11
Autumn application of manure
Fkt 12
Spring application of fertilizer (90% of all fertilizer)
Fkt 13
Summer application of fertilizer (10% of all fertilizer)
Fkt 14
Emission related to grassing cattle
Fkt 15
Emissions related to ammonia treated straw
Fkt 16
Emissions related to personal vehicles with catalytic converters
1
[1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306, doi:10.1029/2003JD003895.
[2] Gyldenkærne et al (2005) A dynamical ammonia emission parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459.
[3] Skjøth et al (2011). Spatial and temporal variations in ammonia emissions - a freely accessible model code for Europe: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5221-5236.
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Backbone of the dynamic ammonia model [1]
• Point sources: emission from stables and manure storages depends on
outdoor/indoor temperature and ventilation[2]
– Pigs/chicken requires a high minimum temperature
– Cattle manages relatively low temperatures
The farmers use heating/ventilation to keep the animals happy …
ET
0 .8 9
• Area sources: emissions from agricultural fields depends on e.g. crop
growth/application of manure described by Gauss functions[2] – also a function
of T.
• Local temperature provided by meteorological data used in the CTM model.
• Usually scaled to official annual emissions, so only intra-annual
(seasonal/diurnal) emission variation used….
[1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306,
doi:10.1029/2003JD003895.
ACCENT-plus
Urbinoemission
2013parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459.
[2] Gyldenkærne et alSymposium,
(2005) A dynamical ammonia
Example from Denmark – change in seasonal profile due to development in
agricultural sector (1985-2003) [4]
Fig 1.
12
10
8
6
4
2
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
1
31
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
Day
Buildings
12
Crops
2000
331
1
361
Grazing
8
6
Change in
4 Danish
2 regulation
0
Other
61
61
91
121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
Art. Fertilizer
Manure
Main activities
1985
[kTon N]
1990
[kTon N]
1995
[kTon N]
2000
[kTon N]
2003
[kTon N]
Pig houses
19.787
18.674
17.979
18.578
18.578
Cattle barns
10.926
10.614
9.104
9.598
9.598
Storage
13.936
12.298
11.125
10.176
9.136
Crops
13.174
13.010
11.125
11453
11.476
Manure early spring
6.722
6.042
6.120
5.941
4.330
Manure in crops
5.491
6.680
11.296
14.183
14.129
3.207
1.834
512
1.806
1.114
640
Manure summer
31
31
Day
10
1
Fig 3.
Fig 2.
2000
Emission [kg N/km²]
Emission [kg N/km²]
1989
91
121
Manure autumn
8.106
151
Manure late autumn
181
Day
211
6.232
7.396
241
271
4.826
301
331
361
13.256
10.306
4.156
1.429
640
Mineral fertilizer
7.870
8.662
7.606
5.582
4.437
Grassing animals
2.591
2.413
2.500
2.370
2.257
Ammonia treatment
6.551
10.210
6.647
2.471
661
Traffic
0.053
0.106
0.993
1.828
1.989
Total
114.695
111.236
94.196
86.556
80.391
[4] Skjøth et al (2008), JAWMA, Footprints on ammonia concentrations from Environmental regulations, JAWMA, 58: 1158-1165.
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Application of the Danish Ammonia Modelling
System: DAMOS[5,6,7] -regional to local scales.
Covered by existing emission model
150 km x 150 km
50 km x 50 km
OML-DEP[7]
~ 17 km x 17 km
DEHM[6]
~ 6 km x 6 km
400 m x 400 m
[5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647.
[6] Brandt et al (2012). An integrated model study for Europe and North America using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model with focus on intercontinental transport
of air pollution: Atmos. Environ., Atmos. Environ., 53, 156-176.
[7] Sommer et al (2009) Validation of model calculation of ammonia deposition in the neighbourhood of a poultry farm using measured NH3 concentrations and N
deposition: Atmos. Environ.,
43, 915-920. Urbino 2013
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Symposium,
Weekly NH3 concentration at Lindet.[5]
DAMOS:
Corr=0.72
Bias=0.11
2005
DEHM
Corr=0.67
Bias=0.64
2006
2007
2008
2009
•Strong seasonal cycle captured by both DAMOS and DEHM[5]
•Overestimating some spring peaks[5]
•Week-to-week variability also captured[5]
•DAMOS closer to measured level[5]
[5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647.
ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013
The new sensitivity study carried out in ECLAIRE (WP6):
Analysing the effect of temperature variations:
- From location to location
- Due to climate change
The dynamic NH3 emissions model forced with hourly bias
corrected climate data (based on a data fusion of ENSEMBLES
climate data and reanalyses meteorology).
New paper in ACP:
The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe
by
Skjøth and Geels
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128, 2013
ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013
Test case:
A storage related to a
pig stable facility with
1000 animals - with
the same production
methods as in
Denmark.
Placed throughout the
domain – so forced
with different
temperatures.
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Spatial variations in NH3 emission
(standard Danish storage moved to other locations).
Area
Emission [kg NH3/year]
2007
DK
506
Difference [%]
5
Area
Emission [kg NH3/year]
GE
541
Difference [%]
13
Note the diff. within GE
Area
Area
Emission [kg NH3/year]
GE
UK
Emission [kg NH3/year]
374
Difference [%]
-22
579
Difference [%]
21
mountainous regions
Relative to mean 2006-2010
at Tange in Dk.
Area
Emission [kg NH3/year]
Difference [%]
Area
FR
577
20
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Emission [kg NH3/year]
Difference [%]
IT
626
30
Annual emission from storage in a pig production facility
with 1000 animals using average Danish production methods
and exposed to different European climatic conditions in the
years 2007 and 2010 – important for emission ceilings …
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The climate ”penalty” on NH3 emissions
(standard Danish storage moved to other locations).
2087 relative to 2007
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2087 relative to 2010
Conclusions and outlook (1):
•
Today – often one national emission factor is used (for several year).
This[6] study shows:
• Emissions can vary with 20% by changing geographical location within a country
due to overall variations in climate. Largest uncertainties are seen for large
countries like UK, Germany and France.
•
Warmer years give higher NH3 emissions than colder years. Annual variations in
overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%.
•
Climate change will in general increase the emissions with 0-40%, in central to
northern Europe – so yes the increase in emissions might hinder mitigations
effects….
•
The “climate penalty” has political implications for international regulation both
now and in the future – how should we define and evaluate emissions ceilings
and should “warmer” countries be allowed to emit more …?
[6]The
effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe
Skjøth and Geels (2013)
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128.
ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013
Conclusions and outlook (2):
Possible way to include this
in models: include
dynamical calculations of
the ammonia emissions.
The dynamic NH3 model
will be part of a proposed
architecture for handling
the climate-dependence of
NH3 fluxes in models.
On-going work in the
ECLAIRE project.
Described in the paper:
Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and
deposition,
By Sutton et al.,
Phil. Trans. Royal Society B vol. 368 no. 1621, 2013.
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Thank you for your attention!
- and contact us if you would like to get the code.
Acknowledgements:
ECLAIRE (FP7), ECOCLIM (Dan. Res. Council) and VKR-foundation
Contacts:
Carsten Ambelas Skjøth ([email protected])
ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013
& Camilla Geels ([email protected])