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Climate change challenges for the mining industry Claude Villeneuve Professor Département des sciences fondamentales Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Iamgold workshop Chicoutimi Sept 17, 2012 Towards an uncertain future • In the last forty years, science made the general deterioration of the global environment an undisputable evidence. • It threatens mankind’s ability to keep developing on the same path – – – – – – Biodiversity losses Climate change Ozone depletion Ocean acidification Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles acceleration Freshwater availability and quality [email protected] [email protected] Economic growth and energy [email protected] World primary energy sources Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources [email protected] Keep growing! Source http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ [email protected] [email protected] Sources of anthropogenic GHG (Source: GIEC, GT3, 2007) Émissions anthropiques en 2007- 29 Gt CO2éq [email protected] [email protected] Source IPCC 2007 Source IPCC 2007 Global mean temperature trends Source IPCC 2007 [email protected] Source NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif (février 2010) [email protected] Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study (20/10/11) Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071 [email protected] Uneven changes [email protected] Forecast? Source IPCC 2007 [email protected] Future climate Mean temperature Canadian GCM [scénario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2065)] (Service météorologique du Canada, Environnement Canada ) 2010-2030 par rapport à 1975-1995 2020 2040-2060 par rapport à 1975-1995 2080-2100 par rapport à 1975-1995 2050 2090 1,5xCO2 Actually it is the most probable scenario given: 2xCO2 • Fossil fuels availability • International trade trends and incapacity to obtain a climate agreement 3xCO2 [email protected] Atmospheric water carrying capacity 9 000 m3 48 000 m3 - 20 00c 0c atmosphere Low energy 304 000 m3 + 30 0c atmosphere High energy New climate event occurrence Source IPCC 2012 Dry future Consecutuve dry days Source IPCC 2012 Soil dryness anomalies Wet future? • The degree of confidence in predicting heavy rainfalls or extreme climatic events is far less than prediction of dryness. • Although these events are local and statistically much harder to predict on large scale (territory, timeframe), the climate science is now able to predict an increased occurrence for both types of extreme • See: IPCC 2012, Managing the risks of estreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation A new occurrence for climate extremes [email protected] [email protected] Climate change evidence • • • • Ice surface and volume Permafrost surface Ocean surface acidification Sea level rise Arctic sea ice [email protected] Trends August 2012 has been the smallest iArtic ice cover ever since satellital observations (NASA-GISS) [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Permafrost surface [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Upcoming global warming « We already have in bank a 2,4˚C global warming in the XXIst century even with the most ambitious GHG reduction programs, it is unavoidable. » . (Ramanhatan, V et Y. Feng (2008) On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenge ahead PNAS, 105:58:14245-14250 « The Copenhagen accord is not going to influence significantly the GHG emission patterns towards 2020 » OECD Environmental trends, 2012 [email protected] Most recent forecast [email protected] A closer look for 2030 Source: Lean, J. and Rind, D, 2009, How will surface tempretaure change in the future decades, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932,. [email protected] Outcomes? • Higher variability and weather extremes («wild weather») • Higher temperature means • Accelerated ice and permafrost melting • Sea level rise • Water cycle perturbations (flash floods, drought) • Change in seasonal behavior and migration of animals and plants [email protected] Growth? • We are 7 billion people since October 2011 • More than half are city dwellers since 2008 and the proportion keeps growing • One more billion will add towards 2025 and another before 2050 • 20% of the poorest share 2% of the total wealth • To reach OECD level by 2050, the WDP should increase 15 fold ans 40 fold for 2100 (Jackson 2009) [email protected] Energy transition? Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources [email protected] Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources [email protected] What’s up, Doc? • Global warming, sea level rise and climate extremes will impact world’s economy in an impredictable way. – – – – – – – – Agriculture Forests Transportation Real estate Tourism Energy Trade Investment [email protected] Key concepts Source: IPCC, 2012 Mining • An energy intensive sector – Lower mineral content of new mines – Remote locations – Global markets • Mining occurs under most climate conditions all over the world and may have important environmental impacts depending on site sensitivity • Life cycle of metals greatly varies in carbon intensity but generally, extraction is not the most important contributor [email protected] Gold? • In gold mining, emissions varies greatly depending upon ore concentration, mine location and mining technologies • Iamgold emissions raised from 170 kg/troy ounce in 2008 to 280 kg/troy ounce in 2010 and 316 kg/troy ounce in 2011 • Gold is 100% recyclable. Only about 15% of world gold consumption is recycled annually thus mining and processing are the main processes contributing to global warming in the industry [email protected] Process flow for gold production Source: Rio Tinto [email protected] Breakdown of energy for a gold LCA These proportions varies from mine to mine and emissions will vary with carbon content of electricity grid Source: Rio Tinto [email protected] Global warming potential breakdown Source: Rio Tinto [email protected] Assessing vulnerability [email protected] Areas of concern • Infrastructures – Transportation • Roads • Marine • Freshwater – – – – – Containment (tailings) Buildings Energy Communication Mine site drainage • Operations • Environment [email protected] Transportation • Permafrost instability – Roads – Airports – Railroads • Sea ice cover – New opportunities for sea transportation in the Arctic • Sea level rise – Seashore installations protection • Glacier melt – Road security • Inland waters – Lakes and rivers level influenced by drought [email protected] Containment facilities • Warmer average temperatures can accelerate acid mine drainage • Altered freeze/thaw cycles can expose previously frozen tailings • Possible overflow or ruptures of dikes following flashfloods or high intensity precipitations • Wind and wave action of extreme weather events can cause resuspension of tailings and formation of ice dams [email protected] Buildings and water supply • Permafrost thaw can jeopardize building structures • Higher average temperature can lead to water scarcity for ore processing or covering of tailings [email protected] Can mining industry adapt to climate change? • Different strokes for different folks… each site has its own potential challenges • Climate change concerns are relatively minor given the mining industry experience with natural conditions • So why bother? [email protected] Good practices pay! • Most measures to mitigate climate change are oriented on energy efficiency and better production • Avoiding incidents due to unexpected weather events protects against lawsuits and fatalities • RSI funds are growing in capital and they are concerned by the way mining sites perform (CDP, WDP, GRI etc.) [email protected] Tools? • • • • • • • • • LCA Carbon footprint Carbon offsets R&D Education and training Renewable energy for electricity and fuels Better building requirements Flood management design Increased surveillance [email protected] Conclusion • Climate change is real and it will increase in the 21st century • Mankind action is the most important driver of climate change • The mining industry is one of the important contributors through GHG emissions • Changing weather and extremes may cause adaptation challenges to the industry • There are tools to alleviate risks and improve performance [email protected] Questions? [email protected] Workshop [email protected] Timeframe • 45 minutes for discussion (5 or 6) – Please mix provenances • Coffee break (30 minutes) and discussion with UQAC research team • 3 minutes per group for reporting • Synthesis and concluding remarks [email protected]