* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download 01_02 Chavez
Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on oceans wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Future sea level wikipedia , lookup
Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Primary productivity in a changing ocean Francisco Chavez Senior Scientist Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute Topics/outline •! PP and biogeochem variability in the sea 1.!Drivers and their variability 2.!Coastal versus open ocean 3.!How to best use the OOI array for biogeo? 4.!To measure (global) variability? 5.!To measure regional trends in quantity and quality? 6.!To determine the right way to measure in situ? To replicate, calibrate satellites and parameterize models 7.!Provide an example based on OOI infrastructure Societal drivers pCO2 HOT MB pH 1992 2000 2009 How long (and where) do we need to measure i.e. Henson et al. The Length of the Record is Important Behrenfeld et al., Nature 2007 Locations where the full photosynthetic plankton community was enumerated and sized by flow cytometry and microscopy All stations collapsed into a single latitudinal profile and the same done with SeaWiFS chlorophyll PP = 0.66125 * PAR / (PAR+4.1) * Zeu * B0 * * DL R=0.91 between cruise data and composite satellite chlorophyll Sum all of the groups and estimate ~50 Petagrams carbon per year Diatom domination that transitions to pico-dominated offshore Coastal out to 150 km ~16% of global NPP Coastal and open ocean observing systems quite different PP variability •! Global climate variability during the twentieth century from SST •! Primary production over the past 20 years from SeaWiFS, BATS, Cariaco, La Coruña (Spain), HOT, MB and Peru •! Looking to the past to learn something about future changes in climate •! Some thoughts about the future The first four global modes of SST variability El Niño/ La Niña M1 M2 (Messie and Chavez, JClim) Pacific Decadal Oscillation M3 M4 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation El Niño Modoki/North Pacific Gyre Past century •! M1 = ENSO (high interannual and some multidecadal energy) •! M2 = AMO, longest period •! M3 like but not the same as PDO •! PDO = M1 + M3 •! M4 linked to North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and El Niño Modoki (Modoki is Japanese for like but not the same) – increasing in amplitude, negative recently, recent El Niño events more western than eastern. Multidecadal variability and regime shifts, same pattern in Pacific as recent cooling Sardine demise 76 warm regime Recent cooling This variability is associated with recent trends in SST y SLA 1981-2009 1993-2009 Major change around 97-98 and this regime shift largest in past century? Terrestrial NPP Global new production = 9.83 El Niño new production = 8.81 Delta ~ 1 gigaton/Pg C per year About 30% of PP delta Change due to nutricline 98% Change due to winds 2% Change in tropics 85% Change at high latitudes 15% Coherence with climate much less clear at (some) fixed point sites 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Scales of variability •! Past century – ENSO, AMO, PDO, NPGO, El Niño Modoki •! Past 400-500 years – Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, the present – very different than ENSO •! THE Ice ages •! Global warming – which of the above is the most likely analog? The biological pump: a complex process in an ever-changing and moving ocean – not 1-D! Follow a molecule of CO2 from here Or here To here on a scale of of hours to weeks and eventually to years Seafloor A Dream A dream that today has very much a semblance of reality How to measure primary, new, community and export production on global scales – Ultimately we need to calibrate satellites and models as well as determine optimal in situ measurement strategies An example using the Pioneer array •! Array may provide physical basis to •! Resolve budgets of carbon and nutrients •! Shipboard estimates of PP, NP and EP by diverse methods •! AUVs/gliders/floats/moorings with carbon/nutrient sensors and samplers/traps to provide lagrangian perspective •! Ultimate goal to develop algorithms/parameterizations and •!The next generation of observatories – GBF-OOI Conclusions •! Climate variability and change have strong and measurable •! •! •! •! •! •! impacts on global ocean ecosystems –i.e. PP and biogeochem Anthropogenic global change (i.e. ocean acidification, overfishing) exists without a doubt, climate change does as well but anthropogenic climate change harder to pinpoint How to best measure climate variability and change? Three strategies: Use fixed-point sentinel stations – need to pick carefully – some for change, some for variability Use fixed-point sentinel stations to develop optimal in situ measurements – intercalibration experiments, develop algorithms (AUVs/floats/satellites), model parameterization Use well-calibrated satellites, ARGO floats/AUVs and models for global estimates