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Download Climate Change Capacity Workshop Arasha Resort, Ecuador
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Adaptation and the Human Dimension – an Introduction in the Context of Indonesian Wetlands Terry Hills 11 May 2011 Overview 1. What is the relationship between wellbeing of wetland-dependent communities and climate change exposures – threats and opportunities? 2. For one climate exposure – sea level rise: what to we know and how can this inform the adaptation options? The Cascade of Uncertainty in Climate Change Adaptation Source: Wilby and Dessai - 2010 Background Key Services Relevant to Human Wellbeing Nurseries/ Protection from Predators Rapid Nutrient Cycling Water Regulation Primary and Secondary Production Coastal Protection Coastal Ecosystem Service Relationships Source: Framing the Flow (UNEP/WCMC) - 2010 Climate Change Exposures in Indonesia and Wetland Ecosystems Changes in: • • • • • • • • Seasonality (wet/dry season) Mean temperature Mean precipitation Distribution/intensity/frequency floods Distribution/intensity/frequency drought Distribution/intensity/frequency storms Sea level Ocean acidity Wetland Ecosystems and Climate Change Physically Vulnerable to Climate Change Part of the Solution for Vulnerable Coastal Communities Coastal Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation 1 - Protect(P): defend vulnerable areas, especially population centres, economic activities and natural resources 2 - Accommodate(A): continue to occupy vulnerable areas, but accept the greater degree of flooding by changing land use, construction methods and/or improving preparedness 3 - Retreat(R): abandon structures in currently developed areas, resettle inhabitants and require that new development is set back from the shore, as appropriate. Unplanned retreat is not considered. (IPCC - CZMS 1990) Key Factors for Accommodation of Sea Level Rise in Mangrove Systems • • • • • Hydrological site characteristics Vegetation species Rate of sea level rise Presence of natural or artificial barriers Local sediment budget 1. 2. 3. 4. Increase carbon stock Reduce coastal erosion Protection of people as ‘bioshield’ Create/maintain fisheries productivity …. And ’climate proofing’ is relevant to all Increasing complexity Objectives for Mangrove Projects Hydrological Classification (Watson, 1928) Hydrological Classification (Oostewaal, 2010) (Oostewaal, 2011) Conclusion • Great uncertainty in climate change, so need better knowledge and/or robust systems to reduce vulnerability • Tropical wetland ecosystems are vulnerable but can be robust solutions to CC, if well managed – Sukardjo’s 8 Points • Simple tools and rules are needed to better climate-proof mangrove projects. Progress is being made in the development of these tools – eg sea level rise Background Terima Kasih