Download Climate Crisis`s Effect on Africa

Climate Crisis – Global and African Dimensions
Mohamed Adow
Christian Aid
[presented @ ATN12, Accra, August’09]
A wealthy minority of the world’s countries and corporations are the
principal cause of climate change; its adverse effects fall first and
foremost on the majority that is poor. This basic and undeniable truth
forms the foundation of the global climate justice movement.
1
2
3
Temperature increase related to Climate Change
So if temperature has
increased by 0.8°C, at
least 0.7°C is due to
anthropogenic (i.e. manmade emissions of
greenhouse gases)
4
Potential impacts
according to the
Stern Review
You don’t want
to be here
You are here
• Severe impacts in
marginal Sahel region
• Small mountain glaciers
disappear worldwide potential threat to water
supplies in several areas
• Coral reef ecosystems
extensively and eventually
irreversibly damaged
• Onset of irreversible
melting of the Greenland
ice sheet
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AR3 QUOTATION ON THE
VULNERABILITY OF AFRICA
“Although Africa of all the major world regions,
has contributed least to potential climate
change because of its low per capita energy
use and hence low greenhouse gas
emissions, it is the most vulnerable continent
to climate change because widespread
poverty limits capacity to adapt. The ultimate
socio- economic impacts will depend on the
relative resilience and adaptation abilities of
different social groups”.
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• “Failure to combat climate change will increase
poverty and hardship in our nations, and increase the
debts owed to us for excessive emissions by the
developed countries”
– The LDC Group (49 countries)
• “Proposals by developed countries in the climate
negotiations, on both mitigation and adaptation, are
inadequate…We therefore call on developed
countries to fully, effectively and immediately repay
the climate debt they owe to African countries”
– PACJA, AMCEN Statement
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Developing countries face Triple
Crisis
• Poverty: 2.6 billion people living in income
poverty, but also without many basic rights
• Climate change: The impact of a small level of
global warming is already intensifying poverty
• The threat of the solution: Poor people likely to
be denied their ‘right’ to use the atmosphere –
the crisis of ‘false/unfair climate solutions
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… in the midst of a development
crisis?
• 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels
• More than 1.5 billion people without electricity
• More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water
• About 800 million people chronically undernourished
• 2 million children die per year from diarrhea
• 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases
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9
UNFCCC: The preamble
“Acknowledging
the global nature of climate
change calls for the widest possible cooperation
by all countries and their participation in an
effective and appropriate international response,
in accordance with their common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities”
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10
The basis for fair and effective
outcomes under UNFCCC
• A fair and effective solution to climate change requires a
principle-based approach
• Responsibilities and capabilities should be established on the
basis of:
– Latest science
– Equity and fairness
– Relevant principles and provisions of the Convention
• A focus on climate budget/debt:
– Promotes fair sharing of the Global Commons -- including the
Earth’s limited atmospheric space -- between rich and poor
– Addresses adaptation, mitigation, financing and technology aspects
of climate change in a holistic manner
– Provides a basis for a fair, effective and development-oriented
outcomes in Copenhagen under the Climate Convention and its
Kyoto Protocol
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Repay the climate debt!
• Rich countries and corporations are the main cause
of climate change
• Poor countries, communities and people are its first
and worst victims
• Rich owe the poor a climate debt for:
– Excessive emissions (emissions debt)
– Climate harms (adaptation debt)
• Climate debt provides a science-based and principled
approach to solving climate change
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A crisis of climate and development
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change threatens the balance of life on Earth and the survival
and prosperity of billions of people, especially the poor in developing
countries
Crops are failing, livestock dying, people are going hungry and thirsty
Oceans are rising and acidifying; ice caps and glaciers are melting;
forests, coral reefs and other ecosystems are changing or collapsing
The existence of some communities is imperilled, while others face
growing barriers to their development
Unless curbed, an impending climate catastrophe risks increasingly
violent weather, collapsing food systems, mass migration and massive
human conflict
The solutions to climate change -- unless fair and effective -- may also
undermine development
Any just solution to climate change must address these crises
holistically and be fair, effective and development-oriented. To be
effective, the solution to climate change must also be fair.
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Problems of the poor
•
Poor countries, communities and people have contributed least to the causes of
climate change, yet are among its first and worst victims:
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
Indigenous and local communities are harmed by changing ecosystems and threats to
traditional livelihoods
Farmers and farming communities. In some countries rain-fed agriculture is expected
to drop by up to 50% by 2020, leaving millions without food
Women. 70% of the world’s poor are women. Women provide half of the world’s food.
They are the hardest hit by climate change and must be at the heart of any solution
Poor communities concentrated in high-risk areas, such as coastal and river flood
plains, or areas prone to extreme weather are particularly at risk
People relying on scarce water resources. Between 75 and 250 million of people are
likely to face increased water stress by 2020 due to climate change
Communities susceptible to health impacts. The health of millions of people will likely
be affected through malnutrition, diseases and death and injury from extreme weather
The poor are harmed both by climate change and by the activities -- fossil fuel
extraction, deforestation, large-scale agribusiness -- that cause it
The rights of these affected communities must be at the center of efforts to
address climate change
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Responsibilities of the rich
•
•
A wealthy minority of the world’s countries, corporations and people are the
principal cause of climate change
Developed countries:
–
–
–
–
•
Large corporations have also played a major role:
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
Have consumed more than their fair share of the Earth’s atmospheric space
Emitted almost three quarters of all historical emissions
Emitted, on a per person basis, more than ten times the historical emissions of
developing countries
Are emitting, on a per person basis, more than four times the current emissions of
developing countries
Oil and coal (Exxon, Shell, etc)
Agribusiness (Cargill, ADM, etc))
Large-scale forestry
Automotive (GM, Ford, etc)
False solutions (Nuclear, Bio-fuels)
Their excessive historical and current emissions occupy the atmosphere and are
the main cause of current and committed future warming harming the poor
Continued excessive emissions means the Global Commons -- including the
Earth’s limited atmospheric space or “emissions budget” -- is being taken from
the poor by the rich without compensation for use by the wealthiest and most
polluting corporations
15
The concept of climate debt
•
•
For their excessive contribution to the causes and consequences of
climate change, a rich minority owe a two-fold climate debt to the poor
majority
Emissions debt:
– The rich are over-consuming the Global Commons
– The poor are being denied their fair share without compensation
– The rich thus owe an “emissions debt” for over-consumption of shared
atmospheric space
•
Adaptation debt:
– Over-consumption by the rich is the main cause of climate change
– The poor are now suffering its adverse effects
– The rich thus owe an “adaptation debt” for climate costs and harms
•
•
Together the sum of these debts – emissions debt and adaptation debt
– constitutes a climate debt
Climate debt is part of a larger ecological, social and economic debt
owed by the rich industrialized world to the poor majority
16
Excessive use of atmospheric space:
An emissions debt
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Global Commons -- including the Earth’s atmospheric space -- are a
resource to be fairly shared among all people and life
Rich countries, corporations and people have consumed more than their fair
share, causing climate change while benefiting from “cheap carbon” growth
They now propose denying the poor a fair share of the remainder by: 1)
continuing their high per-person emissions and: 2) locking the poor into low and
declining per-person emissions
Rich countries have also failed to offer the financing and technology required by
developing countries to develop under the constraints of a limited global
emissions budget. Rather, they propose strengthening intellectual property
rights and control over technologies.
Rich countries, in other words, are appropriating the Earth’s emissions budget
for use by their wealthiest and most polluting corporations and people without
compensation to the poor, who will need it in the course of their development
Developing countries must now develop under the twin burdens of mitigating
and adapting to climate change
Excessive emissions by the rich -- denying the poor a fair share of the Global
Commons -- constitutes an “emissions debt”
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Fair carbon budgetting (2)
•
World has only 600
2500
g ton of carbon emission to budget between 1800 to
•
Given population ratio, the equitable share of annex I countries is 125 GtC
of the total 600. Non Annex I should be allocated 475 GtC in an equitable
system.
•
But Annex I has already consumed (years 1800 to 2008) 240
115 GtC above its fair share of 125 GtC.
•
And given the scenario (global cut by 50% by 2050 and Annex I cut of 85%),
Annex I will consume another 85 GtC from 2009 to 2050.
•
Thus the total Annex I consumption is 325 GtC in all, from 1800 to
2050. Since its fair share is 125 GtC, there is a Carbon Debt of 200 GtC.
GtC, which is
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Carbon budgeting
•
On the other hand, if there was a fair sharing of allocation of carbon
space, developing countries have a share of 475 GtC for years
1800 to 2050.
•
However the situation till now plus the scenarios if accepted for now to
2050 would mean that developing countries can in actual fact
only emit 275 GtC. Thus they are under-consuming by 200 GtC.
•
However the situation till now plus the scenarios if accepted for now to
2050 would mean that developing countries can in actual fact
only emit 275 GtC. Thus they are under-consuming by 200 GtC.
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Actual vs Fair Carbon Budget
in gigatonne carbon
18002008
Annex I
Non A1
Total
240
91
331
20092050
85
184
269
Total
Fair
Share
325
275
600
125
475
600
Assuming 50% global cut and Annex1 cut by 85% in 1990-2050
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Historical emissions debt
•
•
•
•
•
Developed countries’ historical and
current excessive emissions are limiting
the atmospheric space available to
developing countries
With less than twenty percent of the
world’s population, they are responsible
for around three quarters of historical
emissions (Fig 1)
This far exceeds their fair share on a
per person equal allocation (Fig 2)
Excessive emissions by the rich have
caused climate change and denied
atmospheric space to the poor, giving
rise to an emissions debt
Developed countries intend to write-off
rather than repay this debt to poor
countries, communities and people
Figure 1
Figure 2
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Increasing emission debt
•
•
•
•
•
•
Developed countries now seek to
appropriate a disproportionate share of the
Earth’s remaining atmospheric space
By basing their future emission allowances
on their past excessive level of emissions
they would deepen their emissions debt
A wealthy minority will continue to occupy
excessive space through to 2050 denying a
shared resource to the poorer majority who
needs it in the course of their development
Economists value the annual “emissions
budget” at over 1 trillion dollars
The rich countries are thus proposing to
take billions of dollars in shared resources
from the South, without compensation
This constitutes one of the largest
distributions of wealth and resources in
modern history -- to some, a form of
“climate colonialism”
Figure 3
Figure 4
22
National obligations
based on capacity and responsibility in 2010
Population
%
Income
($/capita)
Capacity
%
Responsibility
%
RCI
(obligations)
%
EU 27
7.3
30,472
28.8
22.6
25.7
EU 15
5.8
33,754
26.1
19.8
22.9
1.2
34,812
5.6
5.3
5.5
1.5
17,708
2.7
2.8
2.7
0.6
17,222
1.0
1.2
1.1
United States
4.5
45,640
29.7
36.4
33.1
China
19.7
5,899
5.8
5.2
5.5
India
17.2
2,818
0.7
0.3
0.5
South Africa
0.7
10,117
0.6
1.3
1.0
LDCs
11.7
1,274
0.11
0.04
0.07
Annex I
18.7
30,924
75.8
78.0
76.9
Non-Annex I
81.3
5,096
24.2
22.0
23.1
High Income
15.5
36,488
76.9
77.9
77.4
Middle Income
63.3
6,226
22.9
21.9
22.4
Low Income
21.2
1,599
0.2
0.2
World
100
9,929
100%
100%
0.2
23
100%
Germany
EU +12
Poland
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“Countries will be asked to meet different
requirements based upon their historical share
or contribution to the problem and their relative
ability to carry the burden of change. This
precedent is well established in international law,
and there is no other way to do it.”
Al Gore
(New York Times Op-Ed, 7/1/2007)
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The impacts and costs of climate change:
An adaptation debt
•
•
Developed countries are principally responsible for the historical emissions
contributing to current atmospheric concentrations and to current and committed
future warming
Poor countries and people who live daily with rising costs, damages and lost
opportunities for development
•
These impacts are the direct result of current atmospheric concentrations, which
have been caused predominantly by emissions from developed countries
•
Developed countries are responsible for around 90% of current and committed
warming
•
Developed countries are thus responsible for compensating developing
countries for their contribution to the adverse effects of climate change
•
Failure to honor payment of financing and compensation constitutes an an
“adaptation debt” owed by the rich to poor countries, communities and people
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Implications of recent science
•
•
•
•
Recent science suggests IPCC4AR understated extent and rate of
climate change
Emerging science suggests the world may be committed to 2.4C (in
the absense of emergency efforts to cut emissions and create sinks)
Committed warming surpasses likely “tipping points” and risks
“runaway” climate change with catastrophic consequences
Addressing this challenge requires:
– Much greater efforts at mitigation: including both rapid emission reductions
and creation of sinks (e.g. ecosystem restoration)
– Much greater efforts at adaptation: including emergency efforts to secure
food supplies and limit adaptation harms
•
•
Rich countries and companies’ historical emissions are principally
responsible for this committed warming
Rich countries and corporations may thus have a greater climate debt
to poor countries, communities and people than previously considered
26
Climate and ecological debt
• Climate debt is part of a larger ecological, social and economic
debt owed by the rich to the poor
• Many groups are calling for full payment of ecological debts,
including climate debts
Source: WWF Living Planet Report
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Rich countries propose deepening rather than
honoring their debts
•
Rich countries aim to deepen rather than honor their debts:
– They seek to take more than their fair share of the Earth’s remaining
atmospheric space without compensation
– They seek to pass on the costs of adapting to climate change to developing
countries
•
To advance these goals, some countries are seeking to alter the
climate regime by:
– Ending rather than implementing the Kyoto Protocol (hence claims of the
“post-Kyoto” regime when they are legally bound to agree a “second
commitment period” under the Protocol); and/or
– Changing rather than implementing the Convention (hence calls for a “post2012 regime” when the Bali Action Plan mandates “full, effective and
sustained implementation” of the Convention)
•
A number of countries also intend to use trade sanctions to impose new
obligations on developing countries (e.g. Waxman-Markey), further
tilting the international trading system against development
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Fair and effective outcomes in Copenhagen
• Copenhagen must deliver on two distinct negotiating mandates:
– A second commitment period for Annex I countries under the Kyoto
Protocol; and
– Full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention, in
accordance with the Bali Action Plan
• There is no legal basis for collapsing these mandates or ending
the Kyoto Protocol, as proposed by some developed countries
• There is no legal basis for re-opening rather than implementing
the Climate Convention
• Repayment of climate debt provides one means for ensuring
effective emissions reductions for Annex I Parties under the
Kyoto Protocol, and for implementing obligations relating to
mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing under the
Convention
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Implementing the Kyoto Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol does not end in 2012
• Parties are legally bound to agree a second commitment period
for Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol commencing in
2012 (see Article 3.9)
• In the KP negotiations the Least Developed Countries have
stated that “failure to combat climate change will increase
poverty and hardship in our nations, and increase the debts
owed to us for excessive emissions by the developed countries”
• Four countries -- Bolivia, Malaysia, Paraguay and Venezuela -have formally proposed climate debt as the basis for calculating
Annex I countries responsibilities under the Kyoto Protocol
(UNFCCC/KP/CMP/2009/12)
• Sri Lanka has formally supported the four country proposal
• These proposals are reflected in the texts under consideration in
the AWG-KP
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Implementing the Climate Convention
• The Bali Action Plan commits Parties to ensure the “full,
effective and sustained implementation of the Convention” now,
up to and beyond 2012
• It calls for an “agreed outcome” and a “decision” to be adopted
in Copenhagen (there is no legal mandate requiring a “post2012 climate agreement”)
• A number of Parties -- including the Least Developed Countries
and Bolivia -- have formally proposed climate debt as a basis for
ensuring full implementation of the Convention
• These proposals are reflected in the revised negotiating text
under consideration in the AWG-LCA (e.g. paragraphs 3, 13.4,
14.2 and 14.5)
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Proposals to repay climate debt
•
•
•
•
These proposals provide a means to ensure a balanced outcome to the
negotiations in relation to mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing
In summary, Annex I Parties are to take on “assigned amounts” that “reflect the
full extent of their historical climate debt” taking into account:
– Their responsibility, individually and jointly, for current atmospheric
concentrations;
– Their historical and current per-capita emissions;
– Technological, financial and institutional capacities; and
– The share of global emissions required by developing countries to meet
their social and economic development needs, eradicate poverty and
achieve the right to development
The difference between their assigned amounts and their actual GHG emissions
(e.g. 45% cut by 2020) shall be quantified as an increase in emissions debt; and
This debt, in turn, shall provide the basis of fulfillment by Annex I Parties of their
commitments to provide financing, technology and compensation to developing
countries for mitigating and adapting to climate change
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Proposals to repay climate debt (2)
•
•
•
•
•
This approach to climate debt links developed countries’:
– Historical responsibilities/debts;
– Emissions reduction obligations; and
– Obligations for financing and technology transfer to developing countries.
It recognizes the rights of poor countries, communities and people to a fair share
of the Global Commons
It provides a means to link obligations relating to mitigation, adaptation,
financing and technology together as part of an integrated and holistic approach
It provides a credible basis for ensuring the provision of new and additional
financial resources for adaptation and mitigation
It is science-based and based on principles of the Convention, and is now
reflected in the negotiating texts in the AWG-KP (Kyoto Protocol) and AWG-LCA
(Climate Convention)
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• Developed countries should play a leadership role by
undertaking ambitious nationally appropriate mitigation
commitments. In these actions, the key underlying principle
should be aspiring to minimize and avoid impacts to the
vulnerable countries. Failure to combat climate change will
increase poverty and hardship in our nations, and increase the
debts owed to us for excessive emissions by the developed
countries.
– STATEMENT BY LESOTHO, CHAIR OF THE LDC GROUP, ON
BEHALF OF LDCS AT JUNE 2009 BONN CLIMATE CHANGE
TALKS
34
• We call upon the Parties to the UNFCCC to recognize the
importance of our Traditional Knowledge and practices shared
by Indigenous Peoples in developing strategies to address
climate change. To address climate change we also call on the
UNFCCC to recognize the historical and ecological debt of the
Annex 1 countries in contributing to greenhouse gas emissions.
We call on these countries to pay this historical debt. To
address climate change we also call on the UNFCCC to
recognize the historical and ecological debt of the Annex 1
countries in contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. We call
on these countries to pay this historical debt.
– ANCHORAGE DECLARATION AGREED BY INDIGENOUS
REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE ARCTIC, NORTH AMERICA,
ASIA, PACIFIC, LATIN AMERICA, AFRICA, CARIBBEAN AND
RUSSIA
35
•
By their excessive emissions, this wealthy minority has appropriated the majority
of the Earth’s atmospheric space, which belongs equally to all and should be
fairly shared. For their disproportionate contribution to the causes of climate
change – denying developing countries their fair share of atmospheric space –
the developed countries have run up an “emissions debt”. These excessive
emissions, in turn, are the principal cause of the current adverse effects
experienced by developing countries, particularly in Africa. For their
disproportionate contribution to the effects of climate change – causing rising
costs and damage in our countries that must now adapt to climate change – the
developed countries have run up an “adaptation debt”. Together the sum of
these debts – emissions debt and adaptation debt – constitutes the climate debt.
Proposals by developed countries in the climate negotiations, on both mitigation
and adaptation, are inadequate. They seek to pass on the costs of adaptation
and mitigation, avoiding their responsibility to finance climate change response
efforts in Africa. They also seek to write-off rather than reduce their emissions
and continue their high per-capita emissions. This would deepen their debt and
deny atmospheric space to the developing countries like ours, which would be
asked to crowd into a small and shrinking remainder. We therefore call on
developed countries to fully, effectively and immediately repay the climate debt
they owe to African countries.
–
STATEMENT BY PAN AFRICAN CLIMATE JUSTICE ALLIANCE (63 NGOS FROM
ACROSS AFRICA)
36
•
As the basis of a fair and effective climate outcome we therefore call on
developed countries to acknowledge and repay the full measure of their
climate debt to developing countries commencing in Copenhagen. We
demand that they:
– Repay their adaptation debt to developing countries by committing to full
financing and compensation for the adverse effects of climate change on all
affected countries, groups and people;
– Repay their emissions debt to developing countries through the deepest
possible domestic reductions, and by committing to assigned amounts of
emissions that reflect the full measure of their historical and continued
excessive contributions to climate change; and
– Make available to developing countries the financing and technology
required to cover the additional costs of mitigating and adapting to climate
change, in accordance with the Climate Convention.
–
STATEMENT BY OVER 230 GROUPS INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT,
ENVIRONMENT, GENDER AND YOUTH ORGANIZATIONS, FAITH BASED
COMMUNITIES, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC JUSTICE
MOVEMENTS IN AFRICA, ASIA, LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN, MIDDLE
EAST, EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
37
Final Comments
• The scientific evidence is a wake-up call. Carbonbased growth is no longer an option.
• A rigorous, binding commitment to North-to-South
flows of technology and financial assistance is critical.
Domestic reductions in the North are only half of the
North’s obligation.
• The alternative to something like this is a weak regime
with little chance of preventing catastrophic climate
change
• This is about politics, not only about equity and justice.
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THANK YOU!
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