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Bob Bishop Founder & President, ICES Foundation Geneva, Switzerland 40 years of Landsat AMS, NPP, Cryosat, GOCE, SMOS, ISS, SDO, Hubble robotics, remote-sensing and in-situ sensor networks Doppler, lidar, ocean buoys, cabled oceans, wave gliders Such devices are now generating petabytes each day, and soon exabytes & zettabytes of real-time, high-res, rich streaming data Politics Socioeconomics Biosphere Earth financial data digital medical imaging digital government services digitized books, libraries, broadcasting social networking sites, blogs, smart phones, webcams - LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, etc. Overall, digital source data is increasing faster than Moore’s Law! but how to move, store, harmonize and curate it and then federate it mine it and finally assimilate it into our models Integrative computational models can clarify data sets whose sheer size would otherwise place them outside of human ken modeling & simulation data mining & analytics high performance computing interactive, immersive, 4D visualization In fact, we don’t really understand a scientific phenomenon until it can be computationally modeled and visualized! help protect the planet preserve biodiversity keep people safe allow society to grow keep our society resilient improve our global policy making Above all, insights that help us govern the planet in a healthy, coherent, balanced, and equitable manner! 40,000 heat records have been broken in 2012 so far! July 2012 hottest month on record - 64% drought wildfires , violent storms, derechos tornadoes, hurricanes Deep Horizon spill Katrina And outside of North America things are even worse! The Great East Asian Earthquake & Tsunami of 3/11 Fukushima nuclear meltdown & contamination Banda Aceh quake & tsunami of December 2004 Bangkok, Pakistan, Queensland floods of 2010~12 Russian heatwave of 2010, European heatwave 2003 Chile ash cloud of 2012, Iceland ash cloud 2010 Italian, Iran, Chile, NZ, Haiti, Szechuan earthquakes Increasing population density means more ‘black swan’ events! Future Change in Extreme Summer Drought Late 20th C to Late 21st C 4X probability of extreme summer drought in Great Plains, Florida, Yucutan, and parts of Eurasia 10th Percentile Drought: Number of years out of 47 in a simulation of future climate (2071-2117) for which the June-August mean rainfall was less than the 5th driest year of 47 in a simulation of current climate (1961-2007). Dirmeyer et al. 2012 M9.0 megathrust in an offshore subduction zone 10m tsunami hits coastline 30 minutes later 400,00 homes destroyed – 19,850 fatalities factory supply chain disrupted worldwide three nuclear reactors fail at Fukushima radioactive contamination spreads Japan turns off 50 of its 52 nuclear reactors Japan PM resigns, TEPCO nationalized, $200B+ so far Switzerland, Germany, Italy cancel future nuclear power plans! quarterly profit demands drive ‘just in time’ behavior low reserves & safety margins = ‘brittle’ social fabric ‘optimized complexity’ creates lack of resilience our organizations become knowledge silos we are seriously over specialized Few see the whole picture - precursor signals are hard to detect! climate change ~ CO2 ppm ~ global warming ocean acidification stratospheric ozone global P and N cycles aerosol loading freshwater usage land use changes biodiversity loss chemical pollution Maybe we have already crossed several critical ‘tipping points’? 4 slides from David Wasdell: Apollo-Gaia Project, UK UNEP: the Montreal Protocol of 1987 for CFC control IPCC: created 1988 by the WMO and UNEP. AR5 due 2013 UNDP: Earth Summit (Rio 1982) Sustainable Development: Rio+20 (2012) UNFCCC: Kyoto Protocol (1997), Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban UNISDR: Hyogo Framework (2005) WCRP-ICSU-IHDP-IGBP: Planet under Pressure (London, 2012) Agenda: climate change, global warming, adaptation, mitigation, sea level rise, disaster risk reduction, sustainability, resilience hindcasting the recent past climate forecasting the future climate for years 2035 and 2100 quantifying cloud feedback effects and the carbon cycle But how to take account of social responses and interactions? mitigation strategies adaptation strategies social development pathways & scenarios - demographics, economies, technologies, policies - direction of change, response to impacts Complex analysis of model hierarchies & ensemble averages! can any one country afford it? will our computers ever be fast enough? will our grid resolution ever be fine enough? will or coupling algorithms be good enough? will our scientific & social knowledge ever be deep enough? On the other hand – isn’t integration what the public expects? Towards Comprehensive Earth System Models 1975 1970 1985 1992 1997 Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Carbon cycle Carbon cycle Ocean & sea-ice 2000 Atmospheric chemistry Strengthening colours denote improvements in models Sulphur cycle model Land carbon cycle model Ocean carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry Non-sulphate aerosols Carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry The Met.Office Hadley Centre Ocean & sea-ice Off-line model model development Swiss based not-for-profit private-public-partnership neutral, independent & non-political partnering with national climate, geo & space centers partnering with university research centers partnering with International Orgs & NGOs dedicating 25% of resources to developing world dedicated to research, discovery and policy guidance ICES is structured with a Board, Expert & Ethics Committees, and is privately funded! coupled weather~climate (seasonal, annual, decadal, centennl) coupled ecosystems, environment & biosphere models coupled mantle, volcanic & tectonic plate models coupled Earth’s magnetosphere & core dynamics coupled solar wind and other planetary sciences extension of natural sciences to socioeconomics: - resource depletion, sustainability, resilience - transport, emissions, pollution - energy, water, food, health - geoengineering Open science, open publishing, open data files, open source code! grids, clouds, clusters, supercomputing the power wall, the memory wall, IMDGs CPUGPUs, FPGAs, ASICs, accelerators variable precision, bit-reproducible, bit-deviant application profile, scalability, hardware resilience application specific co-design of hardware/software neuromorphic probabilistic multi-exaflop visual Earth-System simulator We desire to put the scientist ‘in the loop’ and make the system visually 4D, interactive and immersive! Cascadian Resilience Center Southern California Great rivers The Alps Arctic Antactic Open Partners: Visual partner: ICES in the press: Climate Code, Zettascience Metanoiaa~Infinitas ‘The CERN for Climate’ ‘The CERN for Sustainability’