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Preparing Your Coast Mitigation, Adaptation, and Costs of “Building Resiliency” Oceans of Change Though taking action to fight climate change could significantly lessen its effects, greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere have committed us to decades and perhaps even centuries of continued warming. Coastal communities should therefore prepare to adapt to future changes even as efforts progress to mitigate, or lessen, climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level, ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, ocean heat, and ocean circulation have all been changing in ways unknown for thousands of years. Oceans of Change (cont’d) Arctic sea ice melted significantly more in summer in the last 30 years, and storms are intensifying. Coastal ecosystems stand to be damaged, and coasts will likely erode from the intensified storm surges and flooding brought on by climate change. Coastal communities will need to prepare adaptation strategies to cope. Responding to Change Our nation's experience in managing and protecting its inhabitants, resources, and infrastructure has been based on our relatively stable historic climate. But adaptation to climate change requires an appreciation of possible conditions that lie outside the realm of experience. Further, adaptation will require action from a range of decision makers, from federal, state, tribal, and local governments, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and community groups. Adaptation can mean both adjusting to the negative effects of climate change as well as taking advantage of any positive consequences of change. Responding to Change (cont’d) In the short term, adaptation actions that can be most easily implemented are low-cost strategies with win-win outcomes, ones that offer immediate benefits, and those that reverse poor policies and practices. Often adaptations make ecological and human structural systems more resilient and healthy, both now and in the future; short-term solutions that make things worse long-term are not good adaptive choices. Decision makers would be more effective to consider the relationship between adaptive actions and mitigation; adaptive actions that make it more difficult for mitigation are not good choices. Building Resilience Building resilience is an important goal related to adaptation and mitigation, and can help coastal communities regardless of the precise effects of climate change. Improving resilience can mean altering fisheries management to take advantage of new species moving into a region as traditional commercial species dwindle. It could mean improving migration routes for species that must move to adapt to climate change. Building Resilience (cont’d) It could mean restoring natural floodways to improve a community's flood defenses. It could mean educating the public to let them know how they can help. Tips for Planners Few local climate change predictions are available, so identifying trends will be important for coastal planners. Decision makers should be cautious about plans based on future projections with specific numbers attached, although in many cases states need to determine a specific number within given parameters. These plans may seem more defensible to stakeholders, but uncertainty in projections could mean that such adaptation plans over- or underprepare for the future. Tips for Planners (cont’d) Instead, decision makers may find it more productive to look for existing vulnerabilities in their communities and map these together with a range of climate change projections to see what areas of concern emerge. That can provide a starting point for thinking about adaptation options, comprehensive scenario building, hazard planning, and what if/how much exercises. Decision makers should also consider the possibility of abrupt changes. Tips for Planners (cont’d) Such tipping points could create new irreversible conditions like ice-free summers, extreme sea level rise, or sharp increases in extraordinarily damaging weather. Adapting to these impacts could require consideration of radical adaptation measures like large-scale retreat of populations from at-risk areas. Prudent communities will consider these kinds of high risk, low probability events in order to have "worst-case scenario" plans on the books.