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2 Climate Change 2.1 2.2 2.3 Climate change and the greenhouse effect NSW greenhouse gas emissions Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW References 46 52 57 63 45 Climate Change 2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect Over the last century Australia, along with the rest of the world, has experienced an average warming of about 0.9°C. It is now more than 90% certain that observed increases in global temperature are caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The projected effects of this warming include changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and increased evaporation. These effects are already being observed. The average annual temperature in New South Wales is increasing at an accelerating rate. While global temperatures and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have fluctuated naturally over the millennia, the rapid increase in temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations cannot be explained by natural variation. Global sea level rise has accelerated over the past century. A range of sea level rise projections has been modelled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which acknowledges that there will also be regional variability. For planning purposes, the NSW Government has adopted sea level rise benchmarks of 0.4 metres by 2050 and 0.9 metres by 2100. The NSW Government has consulted the community while developing a new response to climate change and sea level rise in the context of the Australian Government’s commitment to cap and reduce the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. NSW indicators Indicator and status Trend Information availability Annual mean temperature Deteriorating ✓✓✓ Sea level rise Deteriorating ✓✓✓ Notes: Terms and symbols used above are defined in About SoE 2009 at the front of the report. Introduction The Earth’s atmosphere has been subject to a natural greenhouse effect for some four billion years. This warms the Earth making it habitable for life. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, nitrous oxide and ozone, allow solar radiation to pass through the atmosphere relatively unimpeded. Solar energy reaches the Earth’s surface and some is absorbed by the oceans, soils and vegetation. Some 46 NSW State of the Environment 2009 of this energy is re-radiated as infrared radiation (heat) and is partly trapped by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This allows the atmosphere to maintain an average global surface temperature of about 14°C, which is about 33°C warmer than if there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007a, p.946). Increased use of fossil fuels since 1750, land-use changes, agriculture and other activities have resulted in an increased accumulation of greenhouse gases (including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)) in the 2.1 atmosphere. This has led to more infrared radiation being trapped as heat, resulting in an increase in global surface temperature (IPCC 2007a, p.4). Australia, as well as NSW, has now recorded a warmer-thanaverage year for the past 12 years (BoM 2008a). Global temperatures and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have always fluctuated naturally over the millennia. Climate change is not a new phenomenon. However, the current magnitude and rates of increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and temperature are unprecedented in the past 800,000 years (Lüthi et al. 2008). In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Fourth Assessment Report, based on all current published scientific material (IPCC 2007a). Key findings include the following: • Warming of the climate is unequivocal, demonstrated by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea levels. • It is ‘very likely’ (defined as >90% probability of occurrence) that most of the observed increases in global average temperatures since the mid20th century are due to the observed increased greenhouse gas concentrations resulting from human-induced (anthropogenic) emissions. • Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised, anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries, due to the time lags associated with climate processes. Future trends in global greenhouse gas emissions will influence the type and magnitude of climate change impacts. To address uncertainty in the growth of future emissions, the IPCC has developed a number of potential scenarios (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). Each of these scenarios would result in a different concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which would in turn lead to a variety of changes in the climate system. Recent analyses indicate that the rate of emissions growth since 2000 has been greater than any of the IPCC’s scenarios (Raupach et al. 2007) and that the rate of increase in global mean surface temperatures and sea level rise is in the upper range of the IPCC’s climate projections (Rahmstorf et al. 2007). The complexity of the climate system may result in rapid and abrupt changes. Climate ‘tipping points’, when gradual changes to the climate system produce feedbacks, can result in abrupt climate shifts. One example of this type of feedback is the loss of ice and snow cover from the margins of Greenland. Once the reflective ice and snow are removed, the ocean and land absorb radiation at a faster rate, which leads to further melting of snow and ice. A sudden collapse of the Greenland ice sheet may, in turn, abruptly increase sea levels, which otherwise can be predicted to increase at a steady rate. To better understand what the impacts of climate change signify for the state, the NSW Government, in partnership with the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of NSW, has developed regional climate projections for NSW (DECCW in prep.). This work has used the same data sources as were used in 2007 by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (CSIRO & BoM 2007), but the data was processed using innovative methods published in the international literature. These projections have been used to assess the likely impacts of the future climate changes NSW may face by 2050. Status and trends Climate change background The difference between a planetary ice age and a warm interglacial period is a variation in global average temperature of 6–7°C. Temperature changes of this scale can lead to major changes in the world’s climate and ecosystems (IPCC 2007b). Approximately three million years ago, when average global temperatures were 2–3°C higher than at present, sea levels were 13–37 m higher (Pearman 2008). Climate change is therefore not a small change in the scale of natural variability – it represents a change on a scale that has triggered mass extinctions in the past. Importantly, these temperature changes are similar to the range of projections currently provided by the IPCC and the recent local study by the NSW Government and University of NSW (IPCC 2007a; DECCW in prep.). Natural variations in temperature and rainfall in NSW are influenced by a number of climate systems in eastern Australia, including the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole (DECCW in prep.). Although there is natural variability in the climate, there is consensus among climate scientists that the rate and magnitude of climate change that NSW is currently experiencing are outside the expected range of this natural variability. 2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect 47 Climate Change Changing climate – historical and projected These changes are outside the natural climate variability and are ‘very likely’ (>90% probability) the result of increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities (CSIRO & BoM 2007). Temperature The rate of warming over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the whole 20th century (IPCC 2007b). Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer than the last. Natural variability can cause cooling for a decade and will continue to do so throughout the 21st century (Easterling & Wehner 2009). Increased greenhouse gases cause a long-term warming trend as has been observed over Australia. Annual mean temperatures have increased by about 0.9°C since 1910, with significant regional variations (CSIRO & BoM 2007). The average annual temperature in NSW has been increasing at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s, based on current climate trends (Figure 2.1). The annual average temperature rise was around 0.1°C per decade during 1950–80 and since 1990 it has been about 0.5°C per decade, a five-fold increase (DECCW in prep.). Since record-keeping began in 1910, the warmest year for NSW was 2007, at 1.1°C above the 1961–90 NSW average temperature (Figure 2.1). All years from 1997 to 2008 were warmer than average, with 2008 marking the 12th consecutive year with above-average temperatures, an unprecedented sequence in the historical records (BoM 2008b). The latest IPCC report states that later in this century the climate is ‘virtually certain’ (>99% probability) to be warmer than at present (IPCC 2007a). CSIRO projections indicate that by 2030 average temperatures in Australia will rise by about 1°C from the current average, with average summer temperatures likely to be at least 3°C warmer by 2070 (CSIRO & BoM 2007; Pitman & Perkins 2008). It is expected that NSW will become hotter, with an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures ‘very likely’ in all seasons. The north and west of the state are generally expected to see the greatest increases in maximum temperatures (Map 2.1). By 2050, winter and spring annual maximum temperatures are expected to rise by around 2–3°C across much of northern NSW (DECCW in prep.). Recent analyses have also begun to focus on temperatures which occur less frequently, such as those that occur once every 20 years. One analysis, based on climate models reproducing current observations over NSW, suggests that by 2100 daily temperatures may exceed 50°C in parts of the state every few years (Perkins et al. 2009). Figure 2.1: NSW annual mean surface temperature anomaly, 1910–2008 Mean surface temperature anomaly (ºC) 2 1 0 -1 -2 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: BoM 2008b Notes: Zero on this figure is the 1961–90 NSW temperature average. The red line represents the 11-year moving average of the measurements. 48 NSW State of the Environment 2009 2.1 Map 2.1: Projected increases in seasonal average maximum temperatures by 2050 Summer Spring 0 100 200 0 100 200 Kilometres Kilometres Autumn Winter Change in mean max temp (˚C) 0 100 200 Kilometres 0 100 200 Kilometres 2.5–3.0 2.0–2.5 1.5–2.0 1.0–1.5 0.5–1.0 0–0.5 <0 Source: DECCW 2009 Rainfall In 2008 NSW experienced its eighth consecutive year of below-average rainfall. Despite this, parts of the state, including the north coast and central tablelands, had above-average rainfall (BoM 2008a). In central NSW, 2008 was a dry year and rainfall was at least 20% below average over the southern and western fringes of NSW (CSIRO 2008a). It is uncertain whether this trend is outside natural climatic variation and directly attributable to global warming; however, it could reflect an early indication of changes which may continue and intensify through future decades. winter rainfall in the south-western regions (Map 2.2) (DECCW in prep.). Most of NSW is expected to experience a shift from winter-dominated to summerdominated rainfall. This will have implications for the length and severity of drought in these areas. Drier conditions across southern Australia (south of 25° latitude) are consistently projected (IPCC 2007a). Changes in the north, and thus influences on tropical rainfall that will potentially affect summer rainfall in northern NSW, are less well understood. Any future variations in rainfall will have implications for water availability and activities, such as farming. Until 2050 summer rainfall is projected to slightly increase in the north-east of the state, although this will be accompanied by a significant decrease in 2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect 49 Climate Change Map 2.2: Projected changes in rainfall to 2050 Lismore Moree Bourke Coffs Harbour Tamworth Cobar Port Macquarie Broken Hill Scone Dubbo Newcastle Orange Sydney Griffith Wollongong Goulburn Wagga Wagga Deniliquin 100 Cooma Eden Kilometres The impacts of climate change on flood-producing rain are expected to be different from the impacts on less extreme rainfall, with the intensity of significant floods ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to increase even where average rainfalls are expected to decrease (DECCW in prep.). This will tend to increase runoff, erosion and flood risk. This is based on rainfall projections in the Climate Change in NSW Catchments series completed by CSIRO for the NSW Government in 2007 (CSIRO 2007). Evaporation Evaporation is expected to increase significantly across much of the state by 2050 as a result of projected higher temperatures. Summer evaporation is ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to increase across the state, particularly in central areas of NSW. The NSW State of the Environment 2009 Slight increase in summer, decrease in winter Rainfall seasonality shift to summer dominance 200 Source: DECCW in prep. 50 Increase in summer, no decrease in winter Batemans Bay Albury 0 Rainfall projections Canberra Significant loss of winter rainfall with small increases in summer potential increases in evaporation are ‘likely’ to offset the expected increases in summer rainfall, with drier soil conditions expected across the west. The projected drying of the autumn, winter and spring seasons in the south and south-west is expected to be outside the variability observed in historical records (DECCW in prep.). Sea level rise Increasing global temperatures have a direct impact on sea levels. As atmospheric temperature increases, so too do ocean temperatures. Because water expands when its temperature rises, any long-term increase in global warming will lead to a corresponding increase in sea levels. Sea level rise can also be expected from melting glaciers and ice caps (IPCC 2007a; DECCW in prep.). Recent evidence 2.1 suggests that this influence has increased significantly over the past decade, leading to a growing scientific view that future sea level rise is likely to be at the top of the range of the IPCC projections (Cazenave et al. 2009). Since the late 19th century, global sea levels have risen by 195 mm at an average rate of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year (Church & White 2006). The rate of sea level rise accelerated over this period and was estimated at 3.4 mm in 2007 (Beckley et al. 2007). Sea level rise will not be the same across the Earth’s surface due to uneven oceanic heating, changes in the mean zones of atmospheric pressure and ocean circulation, and regional geology. The IPCC projected that global sea levels will rise by 0.18–0.79 m by the end of the 21st century, acknowledging that higher values cannot be excluded and that sea level rise will vary regionally (IPCC 2007a). The NSW Government has adopted sea level rise benchmarks of 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100 relative to 1990 sea levels for planning purposes (DECCW 2009a). The benchmarks comprise the upper limit of the IPCC sea level rise projections – 0.3 m by 2050 and 0.79 m by 2100 – and CSIRO projections for a regional variation from the global average of 0.1 m by 2050 and 0.14 m by 2100 (DECCW 2009b). In adopting these benchmarks the NSW Government has considered three important observations: • Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen rapidly since the year 2000 and are exceeding the IPCC emissions projections (Steffen 2009). • Sea level rise has accelerated and is exceeding the IPCC projections (Church & White 2006; Rahmstorf et al. 2007). • Sea levels off the NSW coast have risen faster than the global average and are expected to increase more than the global average projections (IPCC 2007a; McInnes et al. 2007). It is this last consideration that sets NSW apart from other Australian states, with the CSIRO projections for the NSW coastline being higher than for any other part of the Australian coast (DECCW 2009b). Pressures Responses The NSW Government is contributing to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help limit the rate and magnitude of climate change. Responses for both this section and the next are discussed in Climate Change 2.2. NSW Government actions to help the state adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change are discussed in Climate Change 2.3. Future directions It is expected that there will be an increase in temperature and sea levels, and changes to rainfall patterns and evaporation rates in NSW due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The fourth IPCC assessment report states that effective mitigation and adaptation strategies must be implemented immediately to reduce the risks that climate change poses to the state’s environmental, social and economic systems. It has been suggested that even minor delays in implementing mitigation strategies could result in an escalation of the severity of climate change impacts for centuries to come (Parry et al. 2009). The NSW Government is developing the Climate Change Action Plan which will define its future role in light of the Australian Government’s commitments to greenhouse gas emission reduction and the availability of more specific scientific information. Some of the most challenging aspects of preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change will be connected with rising sea levels, the reduction of water availability in the south-west of the state and the reduction of snow cover in the Australian Alps. Scientific research will need to be prioritised to focus on the uncertainties that still remain in the field of climate science. For example, the relationship between the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change is unclear. Further research is required to explore the links between climate change and ENSO and other climate influences, as this research is significant in order to develop climate change projections for NSW. Recent data suggests that the significance of the interaction between drought and the Indian Ocean Dipole may be greater than previously realised and needs further examination (Ummenhofer et al. 2009). There is a consensus among climate scientists that the climate change NSW is experiencing is ‘very likely’ (>90% probability) the result of increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities (CSIRO & BoM 2007). See Climate Change 2.2 for the source of greenhouse gas emissions in NSW. 2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect 51 Climate Change 2.2 NSW greenhouse gas emissions New South Wales greenhouse gas emissions have remained relatively steady since 1990 with per capita emissions declining by 15% since then to 23.6 tonnes, which is below the national average. While overall NSW emissions have been stable, emissions from agriculture, land clearing, waste and industry have declined and those from stationary energy and transport have increased. It will not be possible to reduce overall emissions without reversing this growth. Action to mitigate and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is essential if very negative long-term climate changes are to be avoided. The national emissions trading scheme proposed by the Australian Government will be the primary driver of mitigation, but there is an important role for NSW to introduce complementary measures on energy efficiency and facilitate the generation of cleaner energy. NSW indicators Indicator and status Trend Information availability Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases Deteriorating ✓✓✓ Annual per capita greenhouse gas emissions Improving ✓✓✓ Notes: Terms and symbols used above are defined in About SoE 2009 at the front of the report. Introduction Atmospheric concentrations of all greenhouse gases have shown a sharp increase since the mid-20th century, with a simultaneously sharp increase in global temperature over the same period (IPCC 2007a, pp.3–6). It is ‘very likely’ (>90% probability) that most of the recent temperature increases are due to the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations resulting from anthropogenic emissions (IPCC 2007a, p.665). While the range of effects on the Earth’s temperature is complex, the single largest contributor to global warming since the industrial revolution (around 1750) has been the increased concentration of 52 NSW State of the Environment 2009 carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, followed by a combination of all other greenhouse gases (IPCC 2007a, p.4). Carbon dioxide is released primarily by the production, distribution and consumption of fossil fuels and other industrial activity. More than 75% of the increase in carbon dioxide concentration since pre-industrial times is from these activities (IPCC 2007a, p.512). Land-use changes, including land clearing, also contribute to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. NSW is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for domestic power generation, export income and transport. Increasing energy consumption and use of motor vehicles will create challenges for NSW to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. 2.2 Status and trends Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations Since 1750 the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 379 ppm in 2005 (IPCC 2007a, p.2). The current atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds the natural range of ~170–300 ppm over the last 800,000 years, as identified by ice core measurements (Lüthi et al. 2008). An Australian Government initiative to study atmospheric gas composition at Cape Grim, Tasmania, has monitored the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide since 1976 (Figure 2.2). The rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide is greatly influenced by increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions Total greenhouse gas emissions are quantified using carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e), a measure used to compare the global warming potential of various greenhouse gases relative to the concentration of carbon dioxide. Global greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, and have increased by more than 70% since 1970 (IPCC 2007b). Since 2000, total global emissions have increased at a faster rate. In NSW, greenhouse Figure 2.2: Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at Cape Grim, Tasmania gas emissions declined after 1990, when total emissions were 161 megatonnes (Mt), to a low of 150 Mt in 1996, due mainly to lower emissions from reduced land clearing. Since 1997, however, growth in emissions from the energy sector has resulted in emissions returning to levels similar to those in 1990 (Figure 2.3) (DCC 2009). As the emissions reduction attributable to reduced land clearing was a singular occurrence, the growth in emissions from energy generation and transport will cause rising overall emissions if no cap or reduction measures are in place. In 2007, total NSW greenhouse gas emissions were 163 Mt CO2-e, which represented 27% of Australia’s total emissions (DCC 2009). Emissions from the stationary energy sector account for half of total NSW greenhouse gas emissions, with electricity generation from fossil fuels the major contributor (61 Mt CO2-e) (DCC 2009). During 2007 electricity generation from fossil fuels accounted for over 37% of all emissions in NSW. Emissions from stationary energy have grown from 60 Mt in 1990 to 79 Mt in 2007, a 33% increase. Transport accounts for approximately 13% of NSW greenhouse gas emissions. The majority of transport emissions are from cars (58%), with trucks and buses (19%) and light commercial vehicles (15%) contributing significantly (DCC 2009). The transport sector is highly emissions-intensive with its reliance on fossil fuels which provide 99.9% of transport Figure 2.3: Total NSW greenhouse gas emissions 180 170 380 160 Mt CO2-e 360 340 150 140 130 320 Source: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station; Australian Bureau of Meteorology data 2009 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 120 1975 CO2 mixing ratio (ppm) 400 Source: DCC 2009 2.2 NSW greenhouse gas emissions 53 Climate Change Pressures energy in Australia (Diesendorf et al. 2008). In NSW, transport emissions have grown from 18 Mt CO2-e in 1990 to 21 Mt CO2-e in 2007 (Figure 2.4). Agriculture (11%), fugitive emissions (10%), industrial processes (7%), and land use, land-use change and forestry (7%) are other significant components of NSW greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural emissions are dominated by emissions from livestock, with 74% from ruminants, such as cattle and sheep (DCC 2008). Emissions from agriculture and industrial processes have declined since 1990, primarily due to reduced livestock numbers as a result of drought as well as improvements in industrial practices. Net emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry have also substantially declined due to reduced land clearing and increased reafforestation as a result of land clearing legislative reform (Figure 2.4). Although 33% of all Australians live in NSW, in 2007 the state was responsible for only 27% of Australian greenhouse gas emissions (ABS 2008; DCC 2009). NSW has reduced its energy use per capita and increased its production of wealth per unit of emissions. NSW per capita emissions, which are below the Australian average of 28.3 tonnes CO2-e, have declined from 27.5 tonnes in 1990 to 23.6 tonnes in 2007, a reduction of approximately 15% (DCC 2009). NSW emissions per unit of economic output – gross state product (GSP) – have declined significantly from 0.8 tonnes CO2-e per $1000 GSP in 1990 to 0.5 tonnes CO2-e per $1000 GSP in 2007 (ABS 2008; DCC 2009). This reflects strong growth in low-emitting sectors of the economy. NSW is heavily reliant on coal for both domestic power generation and export income. Almost half of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions are from coal, primarily from coal-fired power plants but also from fugitive emissions from coal mining. Both fugitive and stationary energy emissions have increased since NSW State of the Environment 2006 (DEC 2006). Energy consumption in NSW has been steadily increasing since 1990 (see Human Settlement 3.2) and emissions from energy generation are expected to continue to grow. Transport is the second-largest source of NSW emissions, and these emissions have remained steady since SoE 2006. Agricultural emissions from livestock also contribute significantly, although emissions from livestock are also declining. The offset effect of reafforestation and reduced land clearing is also declining. Responses Emissions reduction NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme NSW has been leading the way on climate change policy in Australia for many years. The NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme (GGAS) commenced in 2003 and was the first mandatory greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world. Since 2003, GGAS has provided incentives for 204 greenhouse-friendly projects which have saved or offset 69 Mt of greenhouse gas emissions up to the end of 2007. Figure 2.4: NSW greenhouse gas emissions components, 1990 and 2007 80 70 Mt CO2-e 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Stationary energy Transport Agriculture Fugitive emissions 1990 Source: DCC 2009 54 NSW State of the Environment 2009 Industrial processes 2007 Land use, land use change and forestry Waste 2.2 It is recognised, however, that reducing CO2-e levels in the atmosphere requires a global effort. A coordinated response from federal and state governments is required to achieve uniformity and consistency in climate change policies and outcomes. The Australian Government has proposed a federal emissions trading scheme (ETS) to start in 2011. The NSW Government will focus on measures to reduce the cost to NSW households, communities and businesses of adapting to a national ETS. The Government will also focus on facilitating adoption of cleaner energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal and distributed gas generation), energy efficiency and State Plan 2006 targets (NSW Government 2006). State Plan 2006 State Plan 2006: A new direction for NSW commits the NSW Government to slowing and reversing the projected growth of greenhouse gas emissions (NSW Government 2006). Under Priority E3(b), the targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions are: • a return to year 2000 greenhouse gas emission levels by 2025 • a 60% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. State Plan 2006 also identified the increased use of renewable energy as a key priority (Priority E2(b)). A review of State Plan 2006 commenced in August 2009 and this may adjust some of the plan’s priorities and targets. NSW Greenhouse Plan Since 2005 the main NSW policy framework on climate change has been the NSW Greenhouse Plan which outlines strategic actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions and achieve emissions reductions by addressing such areas as energy generation, energy efficiency and transport (NSW Government 2005). The plan set ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 2000 levels by 2025 and reduce emissions by 60% by 2050 and recommended the establishment of the Climate Change Fund, with an initial $340 million in funding. Climate Change Action Plan The Climate Change Action Plan, currently under development, will be the new strategic plan outlining how the NSW Government will address climate change by providing leadership and education, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, preparing to adapt to the impacts of climate change, and maximising prosperity in a low-carbon economy. Climate Change Fund The NSW Government established the Climate Change Fund (CCF) in 2007 to provide financial support from 2007 to 2012 for business, government agencies and local councils to implement projects which will save water, energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The CCF comprises a number of funding programs now totalling $717 million until 2012. Projects approved under the former Energy Savings Fund are also now administered under the CCF as are programs announced under the NSW Energy Efficiency Strategy in June 2008. In the first year of the CCF the NSW Government provided 22,271 rebates to NSW families and invested in 227 projects producing savings of: • more than $59 million on water and energy bills • 260,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent to taking 57,000 cars off the road) • 16 billion litres of water (equivalent to the capacity of 6400 Olympic swimming pools). The CCF also stimulates investment in innovative water- and energy-savings measures, increases public awareness and acceptance of the importance of climate change, and promotes water- and energysavings measures. Clean Coal Fund and Clean Coal Council The Clean Coal Administration Act 2008 established the Clean Coal Fund and Clean Coal Council to support the development and acceleration of low emission coal technologies in NSW. The council’s members include representatives from industry (generators and coal producers) and government who advise the Minister on funding priorities from the Clean Coal Fund, to which the NSW Government has committed $100 million. State Environment Planning Policy 46 and the Native Vegetation Conservation Act 1997 were important responses to stopping inappropriate broadscale clearing, which has historically been a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (see Biodiversity 7.1). The Native Vegetation Act 2003 continues this important work. Renewable energy generation and energy efficiency The NSW and federal governments are focusing on renewable energy generation and energy efficiency as key responses to the increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This has included establishing a Renewable 2.2 NSW greenhouse gas emissions 55 Climate Change Energy Target, planning renewable energy precincts and encouraging the purchase of GreenPower (see Human Settlement 3.2). The NSW Energy Efficiency Strategy includes a new Energy Savings Scheme which has been legislated to drive investment in cost-effective energy efficiency measures in NSW, building on the achievements of GGAS. A number of energy efficiency programs, covering small businesses, low-income households and communities, operate under the NSW Energy Efficiency Action Plan and are funded from the CCF. Strategies and programs targeting renewable energy and energy efficiency are discussed in detail in Human Settlement 3.2. The National Energy Efficiency Strategy, developed by the federal, state and territory governments through the Council of Australian Governments, will improve economic performance and reduce the cost of greenhouse gas mitigation and consumer bills. Green skills The NSW Government is also investing in green skills to ensure the workforce is well placed to tackle climate change. This is initially a three-tiered approach with the Government providing $20 million towards the NSW Green Skills Strategy enabling workers to be trained to make the transition to a low-carbon future. The Board of Vocational Education and Training’s Green Business Skills Incentives Scheme, which commenced in July 2009, is aimed at small and medium businesses to train their workforce in green skills. The Green Skills Taskforce, consisting of key business, environment, training and government members, will provide further input to the implementation of the Government’s Green Skills Agenda. Sustainability NSW Government Sustainability Policy The NSW Government Sustainability Policy sets targets and strategies to lead by example in sustainable water use, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy, waste and fleet management, and sustainable purchasing (DECC 2008). The policy ensures Government agencies consider sustainability in all relevant decision-making, are more efficient in their use of energy and water, produce less waste and increase recycling (see also People and the Environment 1.3). This policy is monitored by the NSW Government through an annual progress report which summarises energy and water 56 NSW State of the Environment 2009 consumption, fleet improvement, use of biofuels and waste management from key end uses (including health and education). The NSW Government will also produce a detailed whole-of-government sustainability report every three years. Building Sustainability Index The NSW Government developed the Building Sustainability Index (BASIX) to ensure that homes are designed to use less potable water and produce lower greenhouse gas emissions by setting energy and water reduction targets for residences. Since July 2004, new single residential dwellings in NSW have been required to achieve a reduction of up to 40% in water consumption and, since July 2006, a reduction of up to 40% in greenhouse gas emissions, compared with the average NSW dwelling. For BASIX-compliant single residential dwellings built during 2005–08, this has achieved savings of 5.7 billion litres of urban water and reduced CO2-e emissions by 173,000 tonnes, equivalent to saving the water capacity of 2275 Olympic-sized swimming pools and taking 39,000 cars off the road each year, respectively (DoP 2008). Future directions Under the Climate Change Action Plan, the NSW Government will lead and prepare NSW for a lowcarbon economy by embracing new technologies such as renewable technologies through renewable energy precincts and energy efficiency. A federal ETS, projected to commence in 2011, will be the primary mechanism to reduce emissions. Through the plan, however, NSW will continue to lead with policies complementary to the ETS to ensure all effective abatement opportunities are pursued. The NSW Government will focus on clean and efficient energy, as this cuts the cost of mitigation and helps position the state for even deeper cuts in emissions towards the 2050 goal and beyond. Continued commitment to programs aimed at reducing emissions through mechanisms, such as regulation, education, and business and community partnerships, will provide a solid basis for future initiatives. Ongoing evaluation and adjustments to these programs, coupled with continued development and innovation in technologies, will provide future opportunities to assist in greenhouse gas reduction. 2.3 2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW According to climate change science, New South Wales will become hotter, there will be a shift in rainfall patterns and sea levels will rise. These changes will have an impact on the NSW economy, the health of the population, and the natural and built environment. Climate change in NSW is likely to affect all regions, but to different extents. Biodiversity, the coastline, human health, infrastructure and agriculture will also be affected. Since some change is unavoidable, NSW needs to accelerate preparation to reduce future risk and exposure, including coordinating emergency response capabilities and ensuring the land-use planning system prepares us for future change. The NSW Government has an important role to play in leading and guiding adaptation responses, although partnership with local government, business and the community will be most effective in allowing the state to adapt to climate change. Introduction The projected changes to the climate of NSW described in Climate Change 2.1 include rising sea levels, increased temperatures and changes to available water. These changes are likely to have a variety of implications for the state’s environment, communities and economy. The frequency of extreme weather is projected to increase, with more coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure, and other climate change impacts will mean that biodiversity, human health, infrastructure and industries, such as tourism and agriculture, are affected. Status and trends Impacts of climate change To better understand what the impacts of climate change signify, the NSW Government, in partnership with the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of NSW, has developed regional climate projections for NSW (see Climate Change 2.1). This work has used the same data sources as were used in 2007 by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (CSIRO & BoM 2007), but the data was processed using innovative methods published in international literature. These projections have been used to assess the likely impacts of future climate change that NSW may face by 2050 (DECCW in prep.). Extreme weather Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, are projected to become more frequent (CSIRO & BoM 2007). In lower parts of the coastal floodplains, the combination of rises in sea levels and catchmentdriven flooding is ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to increase the height, extent and frequency of floods. Sea level rise is ‘likely’ to exacerbate the erosive effect of storms (DECCW in prep.). Increases in temperature and evaporation will ‘more likely than not’ (>50% probability) lead to increased fire frequency across NSW towards the year 2050. The frequency of days of very high or extreme fire risk is projected to increase by 10–50% in that period (DECCW in prep.) (see Biodiversity 7.6). Increased fire-weather risk resulting from climate change is projected to be highest in inland regions (Hennessy et al. 2005). In Sydney and the Blue Mountains, bushfires are likely to occur more frequently (up to 24% more fires) and be more extensive (up to a 35% larger area) as a result of climate change by 2050 (Pitman et al. 2007; Bradstock et al. 2008). 2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW 57 Climate Change The costs of extreme weather events are significant: of the top 20 insurance losses in Australia to April 2006, all but one relate to extreme weather events, such as hailstorms, cyclones, bushfires and floods. Of the top 20, nine of the most costly events were in Sydney and included hailstorms, floods and wind damage, with the 1999 hailstorm in densely populated areas of Sydney resulting in the largest insurance payout in Australian history (PMSEIC Working Group 2007). It should be noted that the science is uncertain as to whether there will be an increase in hailstorm frequency and intensity in NSW as a result of climate change (Niall & Walsh 2005; Leslie et al. 2007). threats including invasive species, drought and habitat loss are less likely to be resilient to changes in climate (DECCW in prep.). Biodiversity Changes in climate may also result in new opportunities for the expansion of invasive species. Natural systems are sensitive to changes in climate, and many plant and animal species respond to changes in climatic variables, such as temperature, rainfall and humidity. Observations of range shifts for species, along with changes in the timing of life cycles, are among the best-documented of recent impacts which have been linked to a climate signal (Hughes 2000; Walther et al. 2002; Hughes 2003a; Hughes 2003b; Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Parmesan 2006) (see Biodiversity 7.2). Examples of some observed changes in species in Australia consistent with climate change include: • native and feral animals from lower elevations colonising alpine ecosystems (Green 2003; Pickering et al. 2004) • snow gums (Eucalyptus pauciflora) encroaching into subalpine grasslands at higher elevations (Wearne & Morgan 2001) • sleepy lizards (Tiliqua rugosa) changing their mating behaviour, with warmer and drier winters leading to earlier mating and longer pairings (Bull & Burzacott 2002). Species and ecosystems may be able to adapt to climatic changes in a number of ways, through strategies such as: • evolving or changing their behaviour in their current location • taking refuge in local areas that are buffered from the changes • migrating or dispersing to areas where the climate is more suitable. However, these natural adaptive responses of native species and ecosystems may be constrained by both the increasing speed of the changes in climate and existing threats to biodiversity. Species and ecosystems currently under pressure from other 58 NSW State of the Environment 2009 Species identified most at risk from climate change include species with: • a narrow range of physiological tolerances, low genetic variability and long generation times • specialised requirements for other species or narrow geographic ranges • limited capacity to disperse (move) to new habitats (Steffen et al. 2009). The impacts of climate change are projected to cause some significant loss of biodiversity around Australia (IPCC 2007b). Likely impacts on native species and ecosystems in NSW have been identified in the NSW Climate Impact Profile (DECCW in prep.) and include: • changes in the composition and function of ecosystems through the loss of sensitive species and spread of generalist and invasive species • changes in fire frequency and intensity which may lead to the loss of fire-sensitive species and changes in forest structure and composition • rising sea levels resulting in saline intrusion and coastal recession which may eliminate some coastal ecosystems, affecting species such as shorebirds, waders and fish • snow-dependent species and ecosystems and high-altitude ecosystems likely to contract or disappear altogether. In the marine environment, carbon dioxide increases may lead to higher ocean acidity, while a rise in ocean temperatures could also lead to changes in marine pest distribution (Hobday et al. 2006) (see Water 6.5). Coastal erosion and inundation The NSW Government has adopted sea level rise benchmarks of 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100 relative to 1990 sea levels for planning purposes (DECCW 2009a) (see also Climate Change 2.1). The NSW population is highly concentrated in coastal areas, which increases human susceptibility to sea level rise. Sandy beaches are ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to recede by about 5–10 m for each 0.1 m of sea level rise, although this is dependent on local geomorphological and climatic conditions. Greater 2.3 recession is possible in some locations. Erosive storms are ‘likely’ to become more frequent and, due to sea level rise, peak ocean water levels during storms are ‘virtually certain’ (>99% probability) to increase, producing more intense and frequent coastal inundation, higher wave run-up levels and water levels in lakes and estuaries and more flooding in the valleys of coastal rivers (DECCW in prep.). Extreme sea level events in Sydney Harbour are about three times more likely now than they were earlier in the last century (Church et al. 2006). Tidal dynamics and tidal ranges in estuaries are also ‘virtually certain’ to change, with consequent impacts on conditions in entrance channels and the location of shoaling and erosion. It is ‘virtually certain’ that these changes will progressively damage existing low-lying coastal development and have an impact on existing infrastructure, warranting updates to development regulations (DECCW in prep.). Coastal dunes are ‘likely’ to be threatened by erosion from a combination of sea level rise, changes in wave direction and increased storm intensity. Developed areas of the coast that have had natural dune systems removed and replaced with engineered walls may become exposed to water levels and dynamic wave forces beyond their original designs. A number of sites along the NSW coast already exhibit this coastal erosion threat (DECCW in prep.). Sheet, rill and gully erosion are ‘likely’ to increase and an increased risk of mass soil movement is ‘likely’ on all currently vulnerable slopes in coastal hinterlands, due to projected increases in rainfall intensities (DECCW in prep.). Water resources Australia’s water resources are particularly vulnerable to climate change as Australia is the driest permanently inhabited continent on Earth (see Water 6.1). In NSW, rainfall is projected to decline in the south and west of the state (see Climate Change 2.1). This means that there may be significantly reduced runoff to the catchments to supply water storage and irrigation systems as well as sustain the natural environment. It has been observed in water catchments throughout Australia that decreased rainfall results in an even larger proportional decline in inflows to the water supply system, and the relative proportion of inflow decline rises as drier conditions persist (CSIRO & BoM 2007). The median or best estimate of the likely trend between 1990 and 2050 in mean annual runoff for the whole of NSW (and the Australian Capital Territory) is a 5% decrease. Runoff is projected to decrease in the south and increase in the north-west (DECCW in prep.). The greatest impacts in NSW associated with changes in water availability are likely to be seen in the Murray–Darling Basin. A recent CSIRO analysis found that surface water availability across the Murray– Darling Basin is expected to fall by more than 10% by 2030 (CSIRO 2008b). With the increased temperatures projected due to climate change, the associated reduction in snow cover will have impacts not only on the ecology of the alpine zone but also on the seasonality and quantity of flow of water into the Murray River (DECCW in prep.). Declining rainfall and overuse of water in the Murray–Darling Basin is also leading to a decline in water quality, which poses a threat to the communities which rely on the system for drinking water and a threat to irrigation. There is a 50% chance that by 2020 the Murray–Darling system will reach a salinity level which exceeds the desirable limits for drinking water and irrigation (PMSEIC Working Group 2007). Agriculture, fisheries and forestry Climate is likely to have implications for agriculture and food production in NSW due to changes such as increased frequency of drought and declining water availability. This is a major threat to the NSW economy, of which agriculture is an important component valued at $9 billion in 2007–08 (ABS 2009). Crops that are dependent on irrigation are likely to be severely restricted in some years by limited water availability. In addition, increased temperatures can mean that crops require more water to grow, which results in declining yield per unit of water available, whether in a drought year or not (CSIRO & BoM 2007). Temperature changes may alter the planting window and length of the growing season, requiring changes to traditional cropping and farming practices, particularly for summer crops (DPI 2007). Increased heat and weather damage will also affect fruit and vegetable production. Conversely, with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, crops will use water more efficiently and this may counteract some of the negative impacts of increased temperatures. The higher risk of bushfire and possible increase in the impacts of pests and disease is very likely to threaten some primary industries, such as forestry, horticulture and grazing (DPI 2007). 2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW 59 Climate Change Livestock within agricultural industries are likely to suffer increasing heat stress, which will affect growth rates, egg and milk production, and reproduction. Rising sea levels, storms, reduced stream flow, ocean acidity and salt water incursion into estuaries are likely to reduce or alter fish stocks (DPI 2007) (see Water 6.5). Infrastructure The NSW population is highly concentrated in coastal areas, which increases its susceptibility to sea level rise. Sea level rise is ‘virtually certain’ (>99% probability) to threaten low-lying developments along the coast (DECCW in prep.), with increased impacts on relief organisations, emergency services, and insurance premiums and insurability. Climate change is expected to alter the nature of extreme storm events. An increase in the number of intense storms, or in the intensity of storms, would cause significant damage to coastal infrastructure including ports and harbours, airports, and storm water and sewer infrastructure (DECCW in prep.). Low-lying developments along the NSW coast that are near current high-tide levels will be more susceptible to frequent tidal and stormwater inundation, and stormwater drainage is ‘extremely likely’ (>95%) to be less effective during high tides. Some settlements are already experiencing the effects of coastal erosion and the combination of sea level rise on these settlements would then have a significant impact on vulnerable infrastructure. The vulnerability of urban areas near coastal rivers, lakes and estuaries will be increased by the combined impact of marine and catchment flooding (DECCW in prep.). Health Climate is a key factor that determines human health. Health risks from climate change are both direct (such as heatstroke) and indirect (such as mental health resulting from environmental, social and economic disruption in agricultural areas affected by drought). Increases in temperature and more frequent and intense heat waves are the most likely and significant health impacts associated with climate change. In Australia, an estimated 1200 people die each year as a result of hot weather (Woodruff et al. 2007). While all people are vulnerable to heat-related illness, the elderly, babies and young children, people with chronic respiratory, cardiac or renal conditions, and people of low socioeconomic status are at greatest risk (DoH 2008; Heltberg et al. 2008). 60 NSW State of the Environment 2009 Climate change may also affect air quality. Elevated temperatures may increase the generation of ozone, the principal component of photochemical smog (see Atmosphere 4.1). Modelling indicates an increase in the number of exceedences of the 1-hour ozone standard in the Sydney region of 27–30% by 2021–30 and 45–92% by 2051–60 (compared with the 1996–2005 period) (Cope et al. 2009). Changes to fire regimes may also increase atmospheric concentrations of fine particles. In urban settings, high temperatures cause an increase in ozone which reduces air quality (see Atmosphere 4.1). The acute health impacts of poor air quality include respiratory illnesses, such as asthma, and eye, nose and throat irritation (Chen et al. 2007). Increase in the frequency and intensity of drought and other natural disasters (including fire and flood) is likely to cause additional stress and impact on people’s resilience, particularly in rural and remote areas that are more likely to be subject to a wider range and more intense climate change impacts. Increases in mental illnesses, such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorders, are likely as a result of the projected effects of climate change (Sartore et al. 2007; Hansen et al. 2008). There is a risk of more injuries associated with more frequent natural disasters, although this is yet to be quantified. While health risks for water-, food- and vector-borne diseases may increase in northern parts of Australia as a result of climate change, there is no definitive evidence to support an increased risk in NSW (Russell 2009; Russell et al. 2009). Pressures Anticipated changes in climate will have significant impacts on key features of the state’s economy and way of life. In particular, changes will be required: • in the use of low-lying coastal areas • for agriculture in inland areas, especially in the south-west of NSW • for activities that rely on snowfall. Increased risks from bushfire will also need to be accommodated. Early implementation of adaptation measures to climate change has the potential to reduce costs in the future. 2.3 Responses The NSW Government is developing a range of programs and policies to assist the state to prepare for the impacts of climate change. These focus on quantifying and locating the risks, then preparing suitable risk management and adaptation actions. This work will be ongoing, progressively informed by evolving science. The Climate Change Action Plan is under development by the NSW Government. The action plan will outline how the NSW Government will prepare the state to adapt to the future impacts of climate change and continue the work of the NSW Greenhouse Plan. The NSW Climate Impact Profile (DECCW in prep.) will provide extensive scientific modelling on the projected climate change impacts for NSW, supported by a series of regional impact profiles based on the NSW regions in State Plan 2006: A new direction for NSW (NSW Government 2006). The profile will outline some of the risks NSW may face under a changing climate to help state and regional decision-makers develop their planning and response strategies. To further understand what these impacts mean for the state, the NSW Government is developing a method for determining the vulnerability of NSW regions to climate change. These regional vulnerability assessments will be used to build community capacity to undertake adaptation planning for the region. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Research Program: The NSW Government developed this program as part of the NSW Greenhouse Plan. The program, which ran from 2005 to 2009, analysed future climate impacts such as bushfire risk, sea level rise, invasive species, human health and metropolitan water supply. One project under the research program was a coastal mapping project using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology to identify low-lying areas on the Hunter and Central coasts at risk from sea level rise. Combining the three-dimensional model with existing data layers allowed an assessment of assets and land at risk under different climate change scenarios. This type of information is important for informing decisions made by councils, companies and individuals in low-lying areas. NSW Sea Level Rise Policy Statement: The NSW Government has a long-term goal to see coastal communities adapt to rising sea levels in a manner that minimises the social disruption, economic costs and environmental impacts. To support sea level rise adaptation, the NSW Government has adopted the NSW Sea Level Rise Policy Statement (DECCW 2009a). This outlines proposed Government action on sea level rise adaptation and, as part of an adaptive riskbased approach, sea level rise benchmarks specific to NSW are included. The benchmarks are a sea level rise of 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100 relative to 1990 mean sea levels. These benchmarks represent the NSW Government’s guidance on sea level rise projections for land-use planning and coastal development decision-making. The benchmarks will ensure that developments accommodate the projected impacts of sea level rise on coastal hazards and flooding through appropriate site planning and design. The Government adopted the policy statement, following a period of public consultation. Climate Change Science Research Network: The NSW Government established this network in 2008 to provide independent technical advice on climate change adaptation science and to help shape the Government’s climate change science agenda. This network comprises leading academic researchers from a range of disciplines. Through this partnership the NSW Government is developing a collaborative research program to address gaps in regional information. Statement of Intent for Anthropogenic Climate Change: Climate change is now listed as a key threatening process under the NSW Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995. The NSW Government is responding to this listing by preparing a Statement of Intent for Anthropogenic Climate Change, expected to be released in 2009–10. This statement will outline the actions that the Government will take over the next five years to reduce the negative impact of climate change on biodiversity. Murray–Darling Basin reform: Through the Council of Australian Governments (COAG), major reforms to Murray–Darling Basin water management are under way, including the expenditure of more than $1 billion over 10 years to improve the efficiency and sustainability of water management. This will improve the resilience of the Murray–Darling Basin to climate change (see Water 6.1). The 2006 Metropolitan Water Plan is the key tool for managing the impacts of current and future climate variability on water supply and demand in the metropolitan region to at least 2015 (see Human Settlement 3.1). It will be reviewed in 2010. The review will include factoring in new information about impacts of climate change. 2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW 61 Climate Change The Snowy Mountains cloud seeding trial aims to determine the effectiveness of cloud seeding in increasing natural snowfall and inflows to storages of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. In 2008 the trial was expanded by increasing the target area by 1000 km2 to 2250 km2, and extended until 2014. If the expanded trial fulfils its potential, it is expected to have significant benefits for NSW and the Murray– Darling Basin. Climate Risk Management Project: The NSW Government developed the Climate Risk Management Project in 2005 to assist farmers in adapting to climate change. Through this project the Government aims to raise awareness and build partnerships, provide an understanding of climate change and its potential impacts on agricultural production, and give farmers across all industries the capacity to start planning their strategies for adaptation. The Farmer’s Guide to Managing Climate Risk is a course which is run as part of the program. Over 2008 and 2009 this course has been delivered at regional centres throughout NSW. The course guides farmers in the use of web-based decision-making tools and the use of weather information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Other educational and community programs are discussed in People and the Environment 1.5. National Adaptation Framework: COAG requested the development of the framework in 2006 to act as the basis for government action on adaptation over the next five to seven years (COAG 2007). The framework, endorsed in 2007, sets the agenda for the federal and state governments on climate change adaptation. A key aspect of this agenda is to develop strategies for both the most vulnerable regions, such as the coast, and sectors, including agriculture, biodiversity, fisheries, forestry, settlements and infrastructure, water resources, tourism and health. The NSW Government has been working closely with the Australian Government on this framework. The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, which provides governments with robust and relevant information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation options, has been established under the National Adaptation Framework. The research facility also coordinates the development of National Adaptation Research Plans, which are important for collaboration and coordination of climate change adaptation research across Australia. They identify disparities in the information available to governments in vulnerable sectors and regions and set national research priorities. 62 NSW State of the Environment 2009 Future directions Climate change is one of the most complex and pressing issues facing NSW, with the potential to significantly affect the environment, economy and communities. While the state will continue to look at ways to reduce emissions as part of a global effort to minimise the severity of climate change, some degree of change is now inevitable and further efforts should be directed towards prepartion for future changes. An effective adaptation response will require continued investment in science and research to better understand regional impacts. As global climate data and modelling techniques improve, continued updates of regional analyses will further the understanding of how NSW may be affected by future climate change. It is important to appreciate not only how the climate will change, but also how changes will alter the environment and interact with other environmental, economic and social drivers. The impacts of climate change will vary across NSW and information will need to be collected for all regional, social and environmental systems. While credible and effective responses to climate change should be based on current and reliable science, there will always be some uncertainty about the type, magnitude and rate of future changes and impacts. This uncertainty needs to be incorporated into flexible and responsive adaptation policies that focus on building the resilience and adaptive capacity of environmental, economic and social systems. Climate change is a complex, multidisciplinary issue, and is likely to have implications for a range of sectors in NSW. While the NSW Government has an important role to play in leading and guiding adaptation responses, partnership between local governments, businesses and the community will be most effective in allowing the state to adapt to climate change. 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