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2
Climate Change
2.1
2.2
2.3
Climate change and the greenhouse effect
NSW greenhouse gas emissions
Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW
References
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Climate Change
2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect
Over the last century Australia, along with the rest of the world,
has experienced an average warming of about 0.9°C. It is now more
than 90% certain that observed increases in global temperature are
caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The projected effects of this
warming include changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and
increased evaporation. These effects are already being observed.
The average annual temperature in New South Wales is increasing
at an accelerating rate. While global temperatures and atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations have fluctuated naturally over the
millennia, the rapid increase in temperatures and greenhouse gas
concentrations cannot be explained by natural variation.
Global sea level rise has accelerated over the past century. A range of sea
level rise projections has been modelled by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, which acknowledges that there will also be regional
variability. For planning purposes, the NSW Government has adopted
sea level rise benchmarks of 0.4 metres by 2050 and 0.9 metres by 2100.
The NSW Government has consulted the community while developing a
new response to climate change and sea level rise in the context of the
Australian Government’s commitment to cap and reduce the nation’s
greenhouse gas emissions.
NSW indicators
Indicator and status
Trend
Information availability
Annual mean temperature
Deteriorating
✓✓✓
Sea level rise
Deteriorating
✓✓✓
Notes: Terms and symbols used above are defined in About SoE 2009 at the front of the report.
Introduction
The Earth’s atmosphere has been subject to a
natural greenhouse effect for some four billion years.
This warms the Earth making it habitable for life.
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including
carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, nitrous oxide
and ozone, allow solar radiation to pass through the
atmosphere relatively unimpeded.
Solar energy reaches the Earth’s surface and some is
absorbed by the oceans, soils and vegetation. Some
46
NSW State of the Environment 2009
of this energy is re-radiated as infrared radiation (heat)
and is partly trapped by the greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. This allows the atmosphere to maintain
an average global surface temperature of about
14°C, which is about 33°C warmer than if there
were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
(IPCC 2007a, p.946).
Increased use of fossil fuels since 1750, land-use
changes, agriculture and other activities have
resulted in an increased accumulation of greenhouse
gases (including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)) in the
2.1
atmosphere. This has led to more infrared radiation
being trapped as heat, resulting in an increase in
global surface temperature (IPCC 2007a, p.4). Australia,
as well as NSW, has now recorded a warmer-thanaverage year for the past 12 years (BoM 2008a).
Global temperatures and atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentrations have always fluctuated naturally
over the millennia. Climate change is not a new
phenomenon. However, the current magnitude
and rates of increase of atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases and temperature are
unprecedented in the past 800,000 years
(Lüthi et al. 2008).
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) published its Fourth Assessment
Report, based on all current published scientific
material (IPCC 2007a). Key findings include
the following:
• Warming of the climate is unequivocal,
demonstrated by increases in global average air
and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice, and rising global average sea levels.
• It is ‘very likely’ (defined as >90% probability of
occurrence) that most of the observed increases
in global average temperatures since the mid20th century are due to the observed increased
greenhouse gas concentrations resulting from
human-induced (anthropogenic) emissions.
• Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be
stabilised, anthropogenic warming and sea level
rise will continue for centuries, due to the time lags
associated with climate processes.
Future trends in global greenhouse gas emissions
will influence the type and magnitude of climate
change impacts. To address uncertainty in the
growth of future emissions, the IPCC has developed
a number of potential scenarios (Nakicenovic et
al. 2000). Each of these scenarios would result in a
different concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, which would in turn lead to a variety
of changes in the climate system. Recent analyses
indicate that the rate of emissions growth since 2000
has been greater than any of the IPCC’s scenarios
(Raupach et al. 2007) and that the rate of increase in
global mean surface temperatures and sea level rise
is in the upper range of the IPCC’s climate projections
(Rahmstorf et al. 2007).
The complexity of the climate system may result in
rapid and abrupt changes. Climate ‘tipping points’,
when gradual changes to the climate system produce
feedbacks, can result in abrupt climate shifts. One
example of this type of feedback is the loss of ice and
snow cover from the margins of Greenland. Once the
reflective ice and snow are removed, the ocean and
land absorb radiation at a faster rate, which leads to
further melting of snow and ice. A sudden collapse
of the Greenland ice sheet may, in turn, abruptly
increase sea levels, which otherwise can be predicted
to increase at a steady rate.
To better understand what the impacts of climate
change signify for the state, the NSW Government, in
partnership with the Climate Change Research Centre
at the University of NSW, has developed regional
climate projections for NSW (DECCW in prep.). This
work has used the same data sources as were used
in 2007 by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology (CSIRO & BoM 2007), but the data was
processed using innovative methods published in the
international literature. These projections have been
used to assess the likely impacts of the future climate
changes NSW may face by 2050.
Status and trends
Climate change background
The difference between a planetary ice age and
a warm interglacial period is a variation in global
average temperature of 6–7°C. Temperature changes
of this scale can lead to major changes in the world’s
climate and ecosystems (IPCC 2007b). Approximately
three million years ago, when average global
temperatures were 2–3°C higher than at present, sea
levels were 13–37 m higher (Pearman 2008). Climate
change is therefore not a small change in the scale
of natural variability – it represents a change on a
scale that has triggered mass extinctions in the past.
Importantly, these temperature changes are similar
to the range of projections currently provided by
the IPCC and the recent local study by the NSW
Government and University of NSW (IPCC 2007a;
DECCW in prep.).
Natural variations in temperature and rainfall in NSW
are influenced by a number of climate systems in
eastern Australia, including the El Niño – Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode and
Indian Ocean Dipole (DECCW in prep.). Although
there is natural variability in the climate, there is
consensus among climate scientists that the rate and
magnitude of climate change that NSW is currently
experiencing are outside the expected range of this
natural variability.
2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect
47
Climate Change
Changing climate – historical
and projected
These changes are outside the natural climate
variability and are ‘very likely’ (>90% probability) the
result of increased greenhouse gas emissions from
human activities (CSIRO & BoM 2007).
Temperature
The rate of warming over the last 50 years is nearly
twice that for the whole 20th century (IPCC 2007b).
Global warming does not mean that each year will
be warmer than the last. Natural variability can cause
cooling for a decade and will continue to do so
throughout the 21st century (Easterling & Wehner
2009). Increased greenhouse gases cause a long-term
warming trend as has been observed over Australia.
Annual mean temperatures have increased by about
0.9°C since 1910, with significant regional variations
(CSIRO & BoM 2007).
The average annual temperature in NSW has been
increasing at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s,
based on current climate trends (Figure 2.1). The
annual average temperature rise was around 0.1°C
per decade during 1950–80 and since 1990 it has
been about 0.5°C per decade, a five-fold increase
(DECCW in prep.). Since record-keeping began in
1910, the warmest year for NSW was 2007, at 1.1°C
above the 1961–90 NSW average temperature (Figure
2.1). All years from 1997 to 2008 were warmer than
average, with 2008 marking the 12th consecutive year
with above-average temperatures, an unprecedented
sequence in the historical records (BoM 2008b).
The latest IPCC report states that later in this century
the climate is ‘virtually certain’ (>99% probability)
to be warmer than at present (IPCC 2007a). CSIRO
projections indicate that by 2030 average
temperatures in Australia will rise by about 1°C
from the current average, with average summer
temperatures likely to be at least 3°C warmer by 2070
(CSIRO & BoM 2007; Pitman & Perkins 2008).
It is expected that NSW will become hotter, with an
increase in maximum and minimum temperatures
‘very likely’ in all seasons. The north and west of the
state are generally expected to see the greatest
increases in maximum temperatures (Map 2.1).
By 2050, winter and spring annual maximum
temperatures are expected to rise by around 2–3°C
across much of northern NSW (DECCW in prep.).
Recent analyses have also begun to focus on
temperatures which occur less frequently, such as
those that occur once every 20 years. One analysis,
based on climate models reproducing current
observations over NSW, suggests that by 2100 daily
temperatures may exceed 50°C in parts of the state
every few years (Perkins et al. 2009).
Figure 2.1:
NSW annual mean surface temperature anomaly, 1910–2008
Mean surface temperature anomaly (ºC)
2
1
0
-1
-2
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: BoM 2008b
Notes: Zero on this figure is the 1961–90 NSW temperature average. The red line represents the 11-year moving average of the
measurements.
48
NSW State of the Environment 2009
2.1
Map 2.1:
Projected increases in seasonal average maximum temperatures by 2050
Summer
Spring
0
100
200
0
100
200
Kilometres
Kilometres
Autumn
Winter
Change in
mean max
temp (˚C)
0
100
200
Kilometres
0
100
200
Kilometres
2.5–3.0
2.0–2.5
1.5–2.0
1.0–1.5
0.5–1.0
0–0.5
<0
Source: DECCW 2009
Rainfall
In 2008 NSW experienced its eighth consecutive
year of below-average rainfall. Despite this, parts
of the state, including the north coast and central
tablelands, had above-average rainfall (BoM 2008a).
In central NSW, 2008 was a dry year and rainfall was
at least 20% below average over the southern and
western fringes of NSW (CSIRO 2008a). It is uncertain
whether this trend is outside natural climatic variation
and directly attributable to global warming; however,
it could reflect an early indication of changes which
may continue and intensify through future decades.
winter rainfall in the south-western regions (Map 2.2)
(DECCW in prep.). Most of NSW is expected to
experience a shift from winter-dominated to summerdominated rainfall. This will have implications for the
length and severity of drought in these areas.
Drier conditions across southern Australia (south of
25° latitude) are consistently projected (IPCC 2007a).
Changes in the north, and thus influences on tropical
rainfall that will potentially affect summer rainfall in
northern NSW, are less well understood. Any future
variations in rainfall will have implications for water
availability and activities, such as farming.
Until 2050 summer rainfall is projected to slightly
increase in the north-east of the state, although this
will be accompanied by a significant decrease in
2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect
49
Climate Change
Map 2.2:
Projected changes in rainfall to 2050
Lismore
Moree
Bourke
Coffs
Harbour
Tamworth
Cobar
Port
Macquarie
Broken Hill
Scone
Dubbo
Newcastle
Orange
Sydney
Griffith
Wollongong
Goulburn
Wagga Wagga
Deniliquin
100
Cooma
Eden
Kilometres
The impacts of climate change on flood-producing
rain are expected to be different from the impacts on
less extreme rainfall, with the intensity of significant
floods ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to increase even
where average rainfalls are expected to decrease
(DECCW in prep.). This will tend to increase runoff,
erosion and flood risk. This is based on rainfall
projections in the Climate Change in NSW Catchments
series completed by CSIRO for the NSW Government
in 2007 (CSIRO 2007).
Evaporation
Evaporation is expected to increase significantly
across much of the state by 2050 as a result of
projected higher temperatures. Summer evaporation
is ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to increase across the
state, particularly in central areas of NSW. The
NSW State of the Environment 2009
Slight increase in
summer, decrease
in winter
Rainfall seasonality shift
to summer dominance
200
Source: DECCW in prep.
50
Increase in summer,
no decrease in winter
Batemans
Bay
Albury
0
Rainfall projections
Canberra
Significant loss of winter
rainfall with small
increases in summer
potential increases in evaporation are ‘likely’ to offset
the expected increases in summer rainfall, with
drier soil conditions expected across the west. The
projected drying of the autumn, winter and spring
seasons in the south and south-west is expected
to be outside the variability observed in historical
records (DECCW in prep.).
Sea level rise
Increasing global temperatures have a direct
impact on sea levels. As atmospheric temperature
increases, so too do ocean temperatures. Because
water expands when its temperature rises, any
long-term increase in global warming will lead to a
corresponding increase in sea levels. Sea level rise
can also be expected from melting glaciers and ice
caps (IPCC 2007a; DECCW in prep.). Recent evidence
2.1
suggests that this influence has increased significantly
over the past decade, leading to a growing scientific
view that future sea level rise is likely to be at the top
of the range of the IPCC projections (Cazenave et
al. 2009).
Since the late 19th century, global sea levels have
risen by 195 mm at an average rate of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm
per year (Church & White 2006). The rate of sea level
rise accelerated over this period and was estimated
at 3.4 mm in 2007 (Beckley et al. 2007). Sea level rise
will not be the same across the Earth’s surface due to
uneven oceanic heating, changes in the mean zones
of atmospheric pressure and ocean circulation, and
regional geology.
The IPCC projected that global sea levels will rise
by 0.18–0.79 m by the end of the 21st century,
acknowledging that higher values cannot be
excluded and that sea level rise will vary regionally
(IPCC 2007a). The NSW Government has adopted
sea level rise benchmarks of 0.4 m by 2050 and
0.9 m by 2100 relative to 1990 sea levels for planning
purposes (DECCW 2009a).
The benchmarks comprise the upper limit of the IPCC
sea level rise projections – 0.3 m by 2050 and 0.79 m
by 2100 – and CSIRO projections for a regional
variation from the global average of 0.1 m by 2050
and 0.14 m by 2100 (DECCW 2009b). In adopting
these benchmarks the NSW Government has
considered three important observations:
• Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen rapidly
since the year 2000 and are exceeding the IPCC
emissions projections (Steffen 2009).
• Sea level rise has accelerated and is exceeding the
IPCC projections (Church & White 2006; Rahmstorf
et al. 2007).
• Sea levels off the NSW coast have risen faster than
the global average and are expected to increase
more than the global average projections (IPCC
2007a; McInnes et al. 2007).
It is this last consideration that sets NSW apart from
other Australian states, with the CSIRO projections for
the NSW coastline being higher than for any other
part of the Australian coast (DECCW 2009b).
Pressures
Responses
The NSW Government is contributing to global efforts
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help limit the
rate and magnitude of climate change. Responses
for both this section and the next are discussed in
Climate Change 2.2. NSW Government actions to help
the state adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate
change are discussed in Climate Change 2.3.
Future directions
It is expected that there will be an increase in
temperature and sea levels, and changes to rainfall
patterns and evaporation rates in NSW due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The fourth
IPCC assessment report states that effective mitigation
and adaptation strategies must be implemented
immediately to reduce the risks that climate change
poses to the state’s environmental, social and
economic systems. It has been suggested that even
minor delays in implementing mitigation strategies
could result in an escalation of the severity of climate
change impacts for centuries to come (Parry et
al. 2009).
The NSW Government is developing the Climate
Change Action Plan which will define its future role
in light of the Australian Government’s commitments
to greenhouse gas emission reduction and the
availability of more specific scientific information.
Some of the most challenging aspects of preparing
for the unavoidable impacts of climate change will
be connected with rising sea levels, the reduction of
water availability in the south-west of the state and
the reduction of snow cover in the Australian Alps.
Scientific research will need to be prioritised to focus
on the uncertainties that still remain in the field of
climate science. For example, the relationship
between the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
and climate change is unclear. Further research is
required to explore the links between climate change
and ENSO and other climate influences, as this
research is significant in order to develop climate
change projections for NSW. Recent data suggests
that the significance of the interaction between
drought and the Indian Ocean Dipole may be
greater than previously realised and needs further
examination (Ummenhofer et al. 2009).
There is a consensus among climate scientists that
the climate change NSW is experiencing is ‘very likely’
(>90% probability) the result of increased greenhouse
gas emissions from human activities (CSIRO & BoM
2007). See Climate Change 2.2 for the source of
greenhouse gas emissions in NSW.
2.1 Climate change and the greenhouse effect
51
Climate Change
2.2 NSW greenhouse gas emissions
New South Wales greenhouse gas emissions have remained
relatively steady since 1990 with per capita emissions declining by
15% since then to 23.6 tonnes, which is below the national average.
While overall NSW emissions have been stable, emissions from
agriculture, land clearing, waste and industry have declined and those
from stationary energy and transport have increased. It will not be
possible to reduce overall emissions without reversing this growth.
Action to mitigate and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is
essential if very negative long-term climate changes are to be avoided.
The national emissions trading scheme proposed by the Australian
Government will be the primary driver of mitigation, but there is an
important role for NSW to introduce complementary measures on energy
efficiency and facilitate the generation of cleaner energy.
NSW indicators
Indicator and status
Trend
Information availability
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases
Deteriorating
✓✓✓
Annual per capita greenhouse gas emissions
Improving
✓✓✓
Notes: Terms and symbols used above are defined in About SoE 2009 at the front of the report.
Introduction
Atmospheric concentrations of all greenhouse
gases have shown a sharp increase since the
mid-20th century, with a simultaneously sharp
increase in global temperature over the same
period (IPCC 2007a, pp.3–6). It is ‘very likely’ (>90%
probability) that most of the recent temperature
increases are due to the increase in atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations resulting from
anthropogenic emissions (IPCC 2007a, p.665).
While the range of effects on the Earth’s temperature
is complex, the single largest contributor to global
warming since the industrial revolution (around
1750) has been the increased concentration of
52
NSW State of the Environment 2009
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, followed by a
combination of all other greenhouse gases (IPCC
2007a, p.4). Carbon dioxide is released primarily by
the production, distribution and consumption of
fossil fuels and other industrial activity. More than
75% of the increase in carbon dioxide concentration
since pre-industrial times is from these activities
(IPCC 2007a, p.512). Land-use changes, including land
clearing, also contribute to increased carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere.
NSW is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for domestic
power generation, export income and transport.
Increasing energy consumption and use of motor
vehicles will create challenges for NSW to reduce its
greenhouse gas emissions.
2.2
Status and trends
Atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations
Since 1750 the global atmospheric concentration
of carbon dioxide has increased from 280 parts per
million (ppm) to 379 ppm in 2005 (IPCC 2007a, p.2).
The current atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide exceeds the natural range of ~170–300 ppm
over the last 800,000 years, as identified by ice core
measurements (Lüthi et al. 2008). An Australian
Government initiative to study atmospheric gas
composition at Cape Grim, Tasmania, has monitored
the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide
since 1976 (Figure 2.2). The rise in atmospheric
carbon dioxide is greatly influenced by increasing
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Total greenhouse gas emissions are quantified using
carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e), a measure used
to compare the global warming potential of various
greenhouse gases relative to the concentration of
carbon dioxide.
Global greenhouse gas emissions from human
activities have grown since pre-industrial times,
and have increased by more than 70% since 1970
(IPCC 2007b). Since 2000, total global emissions
have increased at a faster rate. In NSW, greenhouse
Figure 2.2:
Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at
Cape Grim, Tasmania
gas emissions declined after 1990, when total
emissions were 161 megatonnes (Mt), to a low of
150 Mt in 1996, due mainly to lower emissions from
reduced land clearing. Since 1997, however, growth
in emissions from the energy sector has resulted in
emissions returning to levels similar to those in 1990
(Figure 2.3) (DCC 2009). As the emissions reduction
attributable to reduced land clearing was a singular
occurrence, the growth in emissions from energy
generation and transport will cause rising overall
emissions if no cap or reduction measures are
in place.
In 2007, total NSW greenhouse gas emissions were
163 Mt CO2-e, which represented 27% of Australia’s
total emissions (DCC 2009).
Emissions from the stationary energy sector account
for half of total NSW greenhouse gas emissions, with
electricity generation from fossil fuels the major
contributor (61 Mt CO2-e) (DCC 2009). During 2007
electricity generation from fossil fuels accounted for
over 37% of all emissions in NSW. Emissions from
stationary energy have grown from 60 Mt in 1990 to
79 Mt in 2007, a 33% increase.
Transport accounts for approximately 13% of NSW
greenhouse gas emissions. The majority of transport
emissions are from cars (58%), with trucks and
buses (19%) and light commercial vehicles (15%)
contributing significantly (DCC 2009). The transport
sector is highly emissions-intensive with its reliance
on fossil fuels which provide 99.9% of transport
Figure 2.3:
Total NSW greenhouse gas emissions
180
170
380
160
Mt CO2-e
360
340
150
140
130
320
Source: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Cape
Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station; Australian Bureau of
Meteorology data 2009
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
120
1975
CO2 mixing ratio (ppm)
400
Source: DCC 2009
2.2 NSW greenhouse gas emissions
53
Climate Change
Pressures
energy in Australia (Diesendorf et al. 2008). In NSW,
transport emissions have grown from 18 Mt CO2-e in
1990 to 21 Mt CO2-e in 2007 (Figure 2.4).
Agriculture (11%), fugitive emissions (10%), industrial
processes (7%), and land use, land-use change and
forestry (7%) are other significant components of NSW
greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural emissions are
dominated by emissions from livestock, with 74%
from ruminants, such as cattle and sheep (DCC 2008).
Emissions from agriculture and industrial processes
have declined since 1990, primarily due to reduced
livestock numbers as a result of drought as well as
improvements in industrial practices. Net emissions
from land use, land-use change and forestry have also
substantially declined due to reduced land clearing
and increased reafforestation as a result of land
clearing legislative reform (Figure 2.4).
Although 33% of all Australians live in NSW, in 2007
the state was responsible for only 27% of Australian
greenhouse gas emissions (ABS 2008; DCC 2009).
NSW has reduced its energy use per capita and
increased its production of wealth per unit of
emissions. NSW per capita emissions, which are below
the Australian average of 28.3 tonnes CO2-e, have
declined from 27.5 tonnes in 1990 to 23.6 tonnes in
2007, a reduction of approximately 15% (DCC 2009).
NSW emissions per unit of economic output – gross
state product (GSP) – have declined significantly from
0.8 tonnes CO2-e per $1000 GSP in 1990 to 0.5 tonnes
CO2-e per $1000 GSP in 2007 (ABS 2008; DCC 2009).
This reflects strong growth in low-emitting sectors of
the economy.
NSW is heavily reliant on coal for both domestic
power generation and export income. Almost half of
the state’s greenhouse gas emissions are from coal,
primarily from coal-fired power plants but also from
fugitive emissions from coal mining. Both fugitive
and stationary energy emissions have increased
since NSW State of the Environment 2006 (DEC 2006).
Energy consumption in NSW has been steadily
increasing since 1990 (see Human Settlement 3.2)
and emissions from energy generation are expected
to continue to grow. Transport is the second-largest
source of NSW emissions, and these emissions
have remained steady since SoE 2006. Agricultural
emissions from livestock also contribute significantly,
although emissions from livestock are also declining.
The offset effect of reafforestation and reduced land
clearing is also declining.
Responses
Emissions reduction
NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme
NSW has been leading the way on climate change
policy in Australia for many years. The NSW
Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme (GGAS)
commenced in 2003 and was the first mandatory
greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the
world. Since 2003, GGAS has provided incentives for
204 greenhouse-friendly projects which have saved
or offset 69 Mt of greenhouse gas emissions up to the
end of 2007.
Figure 2.4:
NSW greenhouse gas emissions components, 1990 and 2007
80
70
Mt CO2-e
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Stationary
energy
Transport
Agriculture
Fugitive
emissions
1990
Source: DCC 2009
54
NSW State of the Environment 2009
Industrial
processes
2007
Land use,
land use change
and forestry
Waste
2.2
It is recognised, however, that reducing CO2-e
levels in the atmosphere requires a global effort.
A coordinated response from federal and state
governments is required to achieve uniformity and
consistency in climate change policies and outcomes.
The Australian Government has proposed a federal
emissions trading scheme (ETS) to start in 2011.
The NSW Government will focus on measures to
reduce the cost to NSW households, communities
and businesses of adapting to a national ETS. The
Government will also focus on facilitating adoption of
cleaner energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal and
distributed gas generation), energy efficiency and
State Plan 2006 targets (NSW Government 2006).
State Plan 2006
State Plan 2006: A new direction for NSW commits
the NSW Government to slowing and reversing the
projected growth of greenhouse gas emissions (NSW
Government 2006). Under Priority E3(b), the targets
for greenhouse gas emissions reductions are:
• a return to year 2000 greenhouse gas emission
levels by 2025
• a 60% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
State Plan 2006 also identified the increased use of
renewable energy as a key priority (Priority E2(b)).
A review of State Plan 2006 commenced in August
2009 and this may adjust some of the plan’s priorities
and targets.
NSW Greenhouse Plan
Since 2005 the main NSW policy framework on
climate change has been the NSW Greenhouse Plan
which outlines strategic actions to limit greenhouse
gas emissions and achieve emissions reductions by
addressing such areas as energy generation, energy
efficiency and transport (NSW Government 2005).
The plan set ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions to 2000 levels by 2025 and reduce
emissions by 60% by 2050 and recommended the
establishment of the Climate Change Fund, with an
initial $340 million in funding.
Climate Change Action Plan
The Climate Change Action Plan, currently under
development, will be the new strategic plan outlining
how the NSW Government will address climate
change by providing leadership and education,
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, preparing
to adapt to the impacts of climate change, and
maximising prosperity in a low-carbon economy.
Climate Change Fund
The NSW Government established the Climate
Change Fund (CCF) in 2007 to provide financial
support from 2007 to 2012 for business, government
agencies and local councils to implement projects
which will save water, energy and reduce greenhouse
gas emissions. The CCF comprises a number of
funding programs now totalling $717 million until
2012. Projects approved under the former Energy
Savings Fund are also now administered under the
CCF as are programs announced under the NSW
Energy Efficiency Strategy in June 2008.
In the first year of the CCF the NSW Government
provided 22,271 rebates to NSW families and invested
in 227 projects producing savings of:
• more than $59 million on water and energy bills
• 260,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions
(equivalent to taking 57,000 cars off the road)
• 16 billion litres of water (equivalent to the capacity
of 6400 Olympic swimming pools).
The CCF also stimulates investment in innovative
water- and energy-savings measures, increases public
awareness and acceptance of the importance of
climate change, and promotes water- and energysavings measures.
Clean Coal Fund and Clean Coal Council
The Clean Coal Administration Act 2008 established the
Clean Coal Fund and Clean Coal Council to support
the development and acceleration of low emission
coal technologies in NSW. The council’s members
include representatives from industry (generators
and coal producers) and government who advise the
Minister on funding priorities from the Clean Coal
Fund, to which the NSW Government has committed
$100 million.
State Environment Planning Policy 46 and the Native
Vegetation Conservation Act 1997 were important
responses to stopping inappropriate broadscale
clearing, which has historically been a significant
contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (see
Biodiversity 7.1). The Native Vegetation Act 2003
continues this important work.
Renewable energy generation and
energy efficiency
The NSW and federal governments are focusing on
renewable energy generation and energy efficiency
as key responses to the increasing greenhouse gas
emissions. This has included establishing a Renewable
2.2 NSW greenhouse gas emissions
55
Climate Change
Energy Target, planning renewable energy precincts
and encouraging the purchase of GreenPower (see
Human Settlement 3.2).
The NSW Energy Efficiency Strategy includes a new
Energy Savings Scheme which has been legislated to
drive investment in cost-effective energy efficiency
measures in NSW, building on the achievements
of GGAS. A number of energy efficiency programs,
covering small businesses, low-income households
and communities, operate under the NSW Energy
Efficiency Action Plan and are funded from the CCF.
Strategies and programs targeting renewable energy
and energy efficiency are discussed in detail in
Human Settlement 3.2.
The National Energy Efficiency Strategy, developed by
the federal, state and territory governments through
the Council of Australian Governments, will improve
economic performance and reduce the cost of
greenhouse gas mitigation and consumer bills.
Green skills
The NSW Government is also investing in green
skills to ensure the workforce is well placed to
tackle climate change. This is initially a three-tiered
approach with the Government providing $20 million
towards the NSW Green Skills Strategy enabling
workers to be trained to make the transition to a
low-carbon future. The Board of Vocational Education
and Training’s Green Business Skills Incentives
Scheme, which commenced in July 2009, is aimed
at small and medium businesses to train their
workforce in green skills. The Green Skills Taskforce,
consisting of key business, environment, training
and government members, will provide further input
to the implementation of the Government’s Green
Skills Agenda.
Sustainability
NSW Government Sustainability Policy
The NSW Government Sustainability Policy sets targets
and strategies to lead by example in sustainable
water use, reducing greenhouse gas emissions
from energy, waste and fleet management, and
sustainable purchasing (DECC 2008). The policy
ensures Government agencies consider sustainability
in all relevant decision-making, are more efficient
in their use of energy and water, produce less
waste and increase recycling (see also People and
the Environment 1.3). This policy is monitored by
the NSW Government through an annual progress
report which summarises energy and water
56
NSW State of the Environment 2009
consumption, fleet improvement, use of biofuels and
waste management from key end uses (including
health and education). The NSW Government will
also produce a detailed whole-of-government
sustainability report every three years.
Building Sustainability Index
The NSW Government developed the Building
Sustainability Index (BASIX) to ensure that homes
are designed to use less potable water and produce
lower greenhouse gas emissions by setting energy
and water reduction targets for residences. Since July
2004, new single residential dwellings in NSW have
been required to achieve a reduction of up to 40% in
water consumption and, since July 2006, a reduction
of up to 40% in greenhouse gas emissions, compared
with the average NSW dwelling. For BASIX-compliant
single residential dwellings built during 2005–08, this
has achieved savings of 5.7 billion litres of urban water
and reduced CO2-e emissions by 173,000 tonnes,
equivalent to saving the water capacity of 2275
Olympic-sized swimming pools and taking 39,000 cars
off the road each year, respectively (DoP 2008).
Future directions
Under the Climate Change Action Plan, the NSW
Government will lead and prepare NSW for a lowcarbon economy by embracing new technologies
such as renewable technologies through renewable
energy precincts and energy efficiency.
A federal ETS, projected to commence in 2011, will
be the primary mechanism to reduce emissions.
Through the plan, however, NSW will continue to lead
with policies complementary to the ETS to ensure all
effective abatement opportunities are pursued. The
NSW Government will focus on clean and efficient
energy, as this cuts the cost of mitigation and helps
position the state for even deeper cuts in emissions
towards the 2050 goal and beyond.
Continued commitment to programs aimed at
reducing emissions through mechanisms, such as
regulation, education, and business and community
partnerships, will provide a solid basis for future
initiatives. Ongoing evaluation and adjustments
to these programs, coupled with continued
development and innovation in technologies,
will provide future opportunities to assist in
greenhouse gas reduction.
2.3
2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation
in NSW
According to climate change science, New South Wales will become
hotter, there will be a shift in rainfall patterns and sea levels will
rise. These changes will have an impact on the NSW economy, the
health of the population, and the natural and built environment.
Climate change in NSW is likely to affect all regions, but to different
extents. Biodiversity, the coastline, human health, infrastructure and
agriculture will also be affected. Since some change is unavoidable,
NSW needs to accelerate preparation to reduce future risk and exposure,
including coordinating emergency response capabilities and ensuring
the land-use planning system prepares us for future change. The NSW
Government has an important role to play in leading and guiding
adaptation responses, although partnership with local government,
business and the community will be most effective in allowing the state
to adapt to climate change.
Introduction
The projected changes to the climate of NSW
described in Climate Change 2.1 include rising
sea levels, increased temperatures and changes to
available water. These changes are likely to have a
variety of implications for the state’s environment,
communities and economy. The frequency of
extreme weather is projected to increase, with
more coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure,
and other climate change impacts will mean that
biodiversity, human health, infrastructure and
industries, such as tourism and agriculture,
are affected.
Status and trends
Impacts of climate change
To better understand what the impacts of climate
change signify, the NSW Government, in partnership
with the Climate Change Research Centre at the
University of NSW, has developed regional climate
projections for NSW (see Climate Change 2.1). This
work has used the same data sources as were used
in 2007 by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology (CSIRO & BoM 2007), but the data was
processed using innovative methods published in
international literature. These projections have been
used to assess the likely impacts of future climate
change that NSW may face by 2050 (DECCW in prep.).
Extreme weather
Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and
droughts, are projected to become more frequent
(CSIRO & BoM 2007).
In lower parts of the coastal floodplains, the
combination of rises in sea levels and catchmentdriven flooding is ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to increase
the height, extent and frequency of floods. Sea level
rise is ‘likely’ to exacerbate the erosive effect of storms
(DECCW in prep.).
Increases in temperature and evaporation will ‘more
likely than not’ (>50% probability) lead to increased
fire frequency across NSW towards the year 2050.
The frequency of days of very high or extreme fire
risk is projected to increase by 10–50% in that period
(DECCW in prep.) (see Biodiversity 7.6). Increased
fire-weather risk resulting from climate change is
projected to be highest in inland regions (Hennessy
et al. 2005). In Sydney and the Blue Mountains,
bushfires are likely to occur more frequently (up to
24% more fires) and be more extensive (up to a 35%
larger area) as a result of climate change by 2050
(Pitman et al. 2007; Bradstock et al. 2008).
2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW
57
Climate Change
The costs of extreme weather events are significant: of
the top 20 insurance losses in Australia to April 2006,
all but one relate to extreme weather events, such
as hailstorms, cyclones, bushfires and floods. Of the
top 20, nine of the most costly events were in Sydney
and included hailstorms, floods and wind damage,
with the 1999 hailstorm in densely populated areas
of Sydney resulting in the largest insurance payout
in Australian history (PMSEIC Working Group 2007).
It should be noted that the science is uncertain as
to whether there will be an increase in hailstorm
frequency and intensity in NSW as a result of climate
change (Niall & Walsh 2005; Leslie et al. 2007).
threats including invasive species, drought and
habitat loss are less likely to be resilient to changes in
climate (DECCW in prep.).
Biodiversity
Changes in climate may also result in new
opportunities for the expansion of invasive species.
Natural systems are sensitive to changes in climate,
and many plant and animal species respond to
changes in climatic variables, such as temperature,
rainfall and humidity. Observations of range shifts
for species, along with changes in the timing of life
cycles, are among the best-documented of recent
impacts which have been linked to a climate signal
(Hughes 2000; Walther et al. 2002; Hughes 2003a;
Hughes 2003b; Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Parmesan
2006) (see Biodiversity 7.2). Examples of some
observed changes in species in Australia consistent
with climate change include:
• native and feral animals from lower elevations
colonising alpine ecosystems (Green 2003; Pickering
et al. 2004)
• snow gums (Eucalyptus pauciflora) encroaching into
subalpine grasslands at higher elevations (Wearne
& Morgan 2001)
• sleepy lizards (Tiliqua rugosa) changing their mating
behaviour, with warmer and drier winters leading
to earlier mating and longer pairings (Bull &
Burzacott 2002).
Species and ecosystems may be able to adapt to
climatic changes in a number of ways, through
strategies such as:
• evolving or changing their behaviour in their
current location
• taking refuge in local areas that are buffered from
the changes
• migrating or dispersing to areas where the climate
is more suitable.
However, these natural adaptive responses of native
species and ecosystems may be constrained by
both the increasing speed of the changes in climate
and existing threats to biodiversity. Species and
ecosystems currently under pressure from other
58
NSW State of the Environment 2009
Species identified most at risk from climate change
include species with:
• a narrow range of physiological tolerances, low
genetic variability and long generation times
• specialised requirements for other species or
narrow geographic ranges
• limited capacity to disperse (move) to new habitats
(Steffen et al. 2009).
The impacts of climate change are projected to cause
some significant loss of biodiversity around Australia
(IPCC 2007b). Likely impacts on native species and
ecosystems in NSW have been identified in the NSW
Climate Impact Profile (DECCW in prep.) and include:
• changes in the composition and function of
ecosystems through the loss of sensitive species
and spread of generalist and invasive species
• changes in fire frequency and intensity which
may lead to the loss of fire-sensitive species and
changes in forest structure and composition
• rising sea levels resulting in saline intrusion and
coastal recession which may eliminate some coastal
ecosystems, affecting species such as shorebirds,
waders and fish
• snow-dependent species and ecosystems and
high-altitude ecosystems likely to contract or
disappear altogether.
In the marine environment, carbon dioxide increases
may lead to higher ocean acidity, while a rise in ocean
temperatures could also lead to changes in marine
pest distribution (Hobday et al. 2006) (see Water 6.5).
Coastal erosion and inundation
The NSW Government has adopted sea level rise
benchmarks of 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100
relative to 1990 sea levels for planning purposes
(DECCW 2009a) (see also Climate Change 2.1). The
NSW population is highly concentrated in coastal
areas, which increases human susceptibility to sea
level rise.
Sandy beaches are ‘likely’ (>66% probability) to
recede by about 5–10 m for each 0.1 m of sea
level rise, although this is dependent on local
geomorphological and climatic conditions. Greater
2.3
recession is possible in some locations. Erosive storms
are ‘likely’ to become more frequent and, due to sea
level rise, peak ocean water levels during storms
are ‘virtually certain’ (>99% probability) to increase,
producing more intense and frequent coastal
inundation, higher wave run-up levels and water
levels in lakes and estuaries and more flooding in the
valleys of coastal rivers (DECCW in prep.). Extreme sea
level events in Sydney Harbour are about three times
more likely now than they were earlier in the last
century (Church et al. 2006).
Tidal dynamics and tidal ranges in estuaries are also
‘virtually certain’ to change, with consequent impacts
on conditions in entrance channels and the location
of shoaling and erosion. It is ‘virtually certain’ that
these changes will progressively damage existing
low-lying coastal development and have an impact
on existing infrastructure, warranting updates to
development regulations (DECCW in prep.).
Coastal dunes are ‘likely’ to be threatened by erosion
from a combination of sea level rise, changes in wave
direction and increased storm intensity. Developed
areas of the coast that have had natural dune systems
removed and replaced with engineered walls may
become exposed to water levels and dynamic wave
forces beyond their original designs. A number of
sites along the NSW coast already exhibit this coastal
erosion threat (DECCW in prep.).
Sheet, rill and gully erosion are ‘likely’ to increase and
an increased risk of mass soil movement is ‘likely’ on
all currently vulnerable slopes in coastal hinterlands,
due to projected increases in rainfall intensities
(DECCW in prep.).
Water resources
Australia’s water resources are particularly vulnerable
to climate change as Australia is the driest
permanently inhabited continent on Earth (see Water
6.1). In NSW, rainfall is projected to decline in the
south and west of the state (see Climate Change 2.1).
This means that there may be significantly reduced
runoff to the catchments to supply water storage
and irrigation systems as well as sustain the
natural environment.
It has been observed in water catchments throughout
Australia that decreased rainfall results in an even
larger proportional decline in inflows to the water
supply system, and the relative proportion of inflow
decline rises as drier conditions persist (CSIRO & BoM
2007). The median or best estimate of the likely trend
between 1990 and 2050 in mean annual runoff for the
whole of NSW (and the Australian Capital Territory) is
a 5% decrease. Runoff is projected to decrease in
the south and increase in the north-west (DECCW
in prep.).
The greatest impacts in NSW associated with changes
in water availability are likely to be seen in the
Murray–Darling Basin. A recent CSIRO analysis found
that surface water availability across the Murray–
Darling Basin is expected to fall by more than 10% by
2030 (CSIRO 2008b).
With the increased temperatures projected due to
climate change, the associated reduction in snow
cover will have impacts not only on the ecology
of the alpine zone but also on the seasonality and
quantity of flow of water into the Murray River
(DECCW in prep.). Declining rainfall and overuse of
water in the Murray–Darling Basin is also leading to a
decline in water quality, which poses a threat to the
communities which rely on the system for drinking
water and a threat to irrigation. There is a 50% chance
that by 2020 the Murray–Darling system will reach a
salinity level which exceeds the desirable limits
for drinking water and irrigation (PMSEIC Working
Group 2007).
Agriculture, fisheries and forestry
Climate is likely to have implications for agriculture
and food production in NSW due to changes such as
increased frequency of drought and declining water
availability. This is a major threat to the NSW economy,
of which agriculture is an important component
valued at $9 billion in 2007–08 (ABS 2009).
Crops that are dependent on irrigation are likely to
be severely restricted in some years by limited water
availability. In addition, increased temperatures can
mean that crops require more water to grow, which
results in declining yield per unit of water available,
whether in a drought year or not (CSIRO & BoM 2007).
Temperature changes may alter the planting window
and length of the growing season, requiring changes
to traditional cropping and farming practices,
particularly for summer crops (DPI 2007). Increased
heat and weather damage will also affect fruit and
vegetable production. Conversely, with higher
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, crops
will use water more efficiently and this may
counteract some of the negative impacts of
increased temperatures.
The higher risk of bushfire and possible increase in the
impacts of pests and disease is very likely to threaten
some primary industries, such as forestry, horticulture
and grazing (DPI 2007).
2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW
59
Climate Change
Livestock within agricultural industries are likely to
suffer increasing heat stress, which will affect growth
rates, egg and milk production, and reproduction.
Rising sea levels, storms, reduced stream flow, ocean
acidity and salt water incursion into estuaries are likely
to reduce or alter fish stocks (DPI 2007) (see Water 6.5).
Infrastructure
The NSW population is highly concentrated in
coastal areas, which increases its susceptibility to
sea level rise. Sea level rise is ‘virtually certain’ (>99%
probability) to threaten low-lying developments
along the coast (DECCW in prep.), with increased
impacts on relief organisations, emergency services,
and insurance premiums and insurability.
Climate change is expected to alter the nature of
extreme storm events. An increase in the number of
intense storms, or in the intensity of storms, would
cause significant damage to coastal infrastructure
including ports and harbours, airports, and storm
water and sewer infrastructure (DECCW in prep.).
Low-lying developments along the NSW coast
that are near current high-tide levels will be more
susceptible to frequent tidal and stormwater
inundation, and stormwater drainage is ‘extremely
likely’ (>95%) to be less effective during high tides.
Some settlements are already experiencing the
effects of coastal erosion and the combination of
sea level rise on these settlements would then have
a significant impact on vulnerable infrastructure.
The vulnerability of urban areas near coastal rivers,
lakes and estuaries will be increased by the
combined impact of marine and catchment
flooding (DECCW in prep.).
Health
Climate is a key factor that determines human health.
Health risks from climate change are both direct (such
as heatstroke) and indirect (such as mental health
resulting from environmental, social and economic
disruption in agricultural areas affected by drought).
Increases in temperature and more frequent and
intense heat waves are the most likely and significant
health impacts associated with climate change. In
Australia, an estimated 1200 people die each year as
a result of hot weather (Woodruff et al. 2007). While
all people are vulnerable to heat-related illness, the
elderly, babies and young children, people with
chronic respiratory, cardiac or renal conditions, and
people of low socioeconomic status are at greatest
risk (DoH 2008; Heltberg et al. 2008).
60
NSW State of the Environment 2009
Climate change may also affect air quality. Elevated
temperatures may increase the generation of
ozone, the principal component of photochemical
smog (see Atmosphere 4.1). Modelling indicates an
increase in the number of exceedences of the 1-hour
ozone standard in the Sydney region of 27–30% by
2021–30 and 45–92% by 2051–60 (compared with
the 1996–2005 period) (Cope et al. 2009). Changes
to fire regimes may also increase atmospheric
concentrations of fine particles.
In urban settings, high temperatures cause an
increase in ozone which reduces air quality (see
Atmosphere 4.1). The acute health impacts of poor air
quality include respiratory illnesses, such as asthma,
and eye, nose and throat irritation (Chen et al. 2007).
Increase in the frequency and intensity of drought
and other natural disasters (including fire and flood)
is likely to cause additional stress and impact on
people’s resilience, particularly in rural and remote
areas that are more likely to be subject to a wider
range and more intense climate change impacts.
Increases in mental illnesses, such as depression and
post-traumatic stress disorders, are likely as a result
of the projected effects of climate change (Sartore
et al. 2007; Hansen et al. 2008). There is a risk of
more injuries associated with more frequent natural
disasters, although this is yet to be quantified.
While health risks for water-, food- and vector-borne
diseases may increase in northern parts of Australia
as a result of climate change, there is no definitive
evidence to support an increased risk in NSW (Russell
2009; Russell et al. 2009).
Pressures
Anticipated changes in climate will have significant
impacts on key features of the state’s economy and
way of life. In particular, changes will be required:
• in the use of low-lying coastal areas
• for agriculture in inland areas, especially in the
south-west of NSW
• for activities that rely on snowfall.
Increased risks from bushfire will also need to be
accommodated. Early implementation of adaptation
measures to climate change has the potential to
reduce costs in the future.
2.3
Responses
The NSW Government is developing a range of
programs and policies to assist the state to prepare
for the impacts of climate change. These focus on
quantifying and locating the risks, then preparing
suitable risk management and adaptation actions.
This work will be ongoing, progressively informed by
evolving science.
The Climate Change Action Plan is under
development by the NSW Government. The action
plan will outline how the NSW Government will
prepare the state to adapt to the future impacts of
climate change and continue the work of the NSW
Greenhouse Plan.
The NSW Climate Impact Profile (DECCW in prep.)
will provide extensive scientific modelling on the
projected climate change impacts for NSW, supported
by a series of regional impact profiles based on the
NSW regions in State Plan 2006: A new direction for
NSW (NSW Government 2006). The profile will outline
some of the risks NSW may face under a changing
climate to help state and regional decision-makers
develop their planning and response strategies. To
further understand what these impacts mean for the
state, the NSW Government is developing a method
for determining the vulnerability of NSW regions
to climate change. These regional vulnerability
assessments will be used to build community
capacity to undertake adaptation planning for
the region.
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Research
Program: The NSW Government developed this
program as part of the NSW Greenhouse Plan. The
program, which ran from 2005 to 2009, analysed
future climate impacts such as bushfire risk, sea
level rise, invasive species, human health and
metropolitan water supply. One project under the
research program was a coastal mapping project
using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology
to identify low-lying areas on the Hunter and Central
coasts at risk from sea level rise. Combining the
three-dimensional model with existing data layers
allowed an assessment of assets and land at risk
under different climate change scenarios. This type
of information is important for informing decisions
made by councils, companies and individuals in
low-lying areas.
NSW Sea Level Rise Policy Statement: The NSW
Government has a long-term goal to see coastal
communities adapt to rising sea levels in a manner
that minimises the social disruption, economic costs
and environmental impacts. To support sea level rise
adaptation, the NSW Government has adopted the
NSW Sea Level Rise Policy Statement (DECCW 2009a).
This outlines proposed Government action on sea
level rise adaptation and, as part of an adaptive riskbased approach, sea level rise benchmarks specific
to NSW are included. The benchmarks are a sea level
rise of 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100 relative to
1990 mean sea levels. These benchmarks represent
the NSW Government’s guidance on sea level
rise projections for land-use planning and coastal
development decision-making. The benchmarks
will ensure that developments accommodate the
projected impacts of sea level rise on coastal hazards
and flooding through appropriate site planning
and design. The Government adopted the policy
statement, following a period of public consultation.
Climate Change Science Research Network:
The NSW Government established this network in
2008 to provide independent technical advice on
climate change adaptation science and to help
shape the Government’s climate change science
agenda. This network comprises leading academic
researchers from a range of disciplines. Through this
partnership the NSW Government is developing a
collaborative research program to address gaps in
regional information.
Statement of Intent for Anthropogenic Climate
Change: Climate change is now listed as a key
threatening process under the NSW Threatened
Species Conservation Act 1995. The NSW Government is
responding to this listing by preparing a Statement of
Intent for Anthropogenic Climate Change, expected
to be released in 2009–10. This statement will outline
the actions that the Government will take over the
next five years to reduce the negative impact of
climate change on biodiversity.
Murray–Darling Basin reform: Through the Council
of Australian Governments (COAG), major reforms
to Murray–Darling Basin water management are
under way, including the expenditure of more than
$1 billion over 10 years to improve the efficiency and
sustainability of water management. This will improve
the resilience of the Murray–Darling Basin to climate
change (see Water 6.1).
The 2006 Metropolitan Water Plan is the key tool
for managing the impacts of current and future
climate variability on water supply and demand in
the metropolitan region to at least 2015 (see Human
Settlement 3.1). It will be reviewed in 2010. The review
will include factoring in new information about
impacts of climate change.
2.3 Climate change impacts and adaptation in NSW
61
Climate Change
The Snowy Mountains cloud seeding trial aims
to determine the effectiveness of cloud seeding in
increasing natural snowfall and inflows to storages
of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. In 2008 the trial
was expanded by increasing the target area by 1000
km2 to 2250 km2, and extended until 2014. If the
expanded trial fulfils its potential, it is expected to
have significant benefits for NSW and the Murray–
Darling Basin.
Climate Risk Management Project: The
NSW Government developed the Climate Risk
Management Project in 2005 to assist farmers in
adapting to climate change. Through this project
the Government aims to raise awareness and build
partnerships, provide an understanding of climate
change and its potential impacts on agricultural
production, and give farmers across all industries
the capacity to start planning their strategies for
adaptation. The Farmer’s Guide to Managing Climate
Risk is a course which is run as part of the program.
Over 2008 and 2009 this course has been delivered at
regional centres throughout NSW. The course guides
farmers in the use of web-based decision-making
tools and the use of weather information provided
by the Bureau of Meteorology. Other educational and
community programs are discussed in People and the
Environment 1.5.
National Adaptation Framework: COAG requested
the development of the framework in 2006 to act
as the basis for government action on adaptation
over the next five to seven years (COAG 2007). The
framework, endorsed in 2007, sets the agenda for the
federal and state governments on climate change
adaptation. A key aspect of this agenda is to develop
strategies for both the most vulnerable regions,
such as the coast, and sectors, including agriculture,
biodiversity, fisheries, forestry, settlements and
infrastructure, water resources, tourism and health.
The NSW Government has been working closely with
the Australian Government on this framework.
The National Climate Change Adaptation
Research Facility, which provides governments with
robust and relevant information on climate change
impacts, vulnerability and adaptation options, has
been established under the National Adaptation
Framework. The research facility also coordinates
the development of National Adaptation Research
Plans, which are important for collaboration and
coordination of climate change adaptation
research across Australia. They identify disparities
in the information available to governments in
vulnerable sectors and regions and set national
research priorities.
62
NSW State of the Environment 2009
Future directions
Climate change is one of the most complex and
pressing issues facing NSW, with the potential to
significantly affect the environment, economy and
communities. While the state will continue to look at
ways to reduce emissions as part of a global effort to
minimise the severity of climate change, some degree
of change is now inevitable and further efforts should
be directed towards prepartion for future changes.
An effective adaptation response will require
continued investment in science and research
to better understand regional impacts. As global
climate data and modelling techniques improve,
continued updates of regional analyses will further
the understanding of how NSW may be affected by
future climate change. It is important to appreciate
not only how the climate will change, but also how
changes will alter the environment and interact with
other environmental, economic and social drivers. The
impacts of climate change will vary across NSW and
information will need to be collected for all regional,
social and environmental systems.
While credible and effective responses to climate
change should be based on current and reliable
science, there will always be some uncertainty about
the type, magnitude and rate of future changes and
impacts. This uncertainty needs to be incorporated
into flexible and responsive adaptation policies that
focus on building the resilience and adaptive capacity
of environmental, economic and social systems.
Climate change is a complex, multidisciplinary issue,
and is likely to have implications for a range of sectors
in NSW. While the NSW Government has an important
role to play in leading and guiding adaptation
responses, partnership between local governments,
businesses and the community will be most effective
in allowing the state to adapt to climate change.
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