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Geology 104:Global Climate Change Spring 2008 Prof. Jeff Niemitz Lecture: 10:30 M-W-F Kaufman 159 Lab: M or T 1:30-4:30pm Kaufman 134 Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan, Australian and African drought, Arctic sea ice melting, El Niñoinduced severe weather in the western US. Hardly a day goes by that we do not hear in the media about climate disasters some where in the world. More and more commonly these weather events are attributed to “Global Warming”. Are the activities of 6.7 billion humans causing these climate changes or are these events ‘business-as-usual’ for a planetary climate system that has fluctuated dramatically for billions of years? How can we discern the difference? And what are the implications for humans and civilization as we know it? In this course we will take an in-depth look at the interactions between the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (oceans and freshwater), the geosphere (rocks and soils), and the biosphere (plants, mainly). Specifically we will explore how these complex interactions create weather on Earth and how weather has changed over deep time, i.e. climate change. We can examine climate change over time spans of days, weeks, months, and years through the use of simple instruments. In geologic time, natural chemical, physical, and biological processes recorded climate change and still do in the form of ice cores, tree rings and coral growth. We will look at how these indicators and others help us to infer climate change back to the beginning of the earth itself. Then, using these data, we will deduce the processes which may have driven climate change over longer time scales (1000’s to 100’s of millions of years) and see how they may have differed from today. Lastly, we will use our new knowledge to critically assess present and future climate and address the questions noted above. If global warming has, in fact, begun, is it possible to stop it and, if so, what will it take politically, economically and even culturally to do so? Our content objectives, then, are to delve into the science of earth’s climate, past, present, and future. However, there are other objectives for this course, which ultimately may be more important than what you learn about climate change. These objectives strive to train you to be an active learner qualitatively and quantitatively; a science-literate citizen in the 21st century who will need to address climate change and other global issues. By the end of this course you should be able to do the following: Identify and formulate assumptions, assemble a logical chain of reasoning, use observations to formulate inferences, detect good and bad data and reasoning, recognize a testable hypothesis, and use observations to produce a testable hypothesis. Find desired information from primary resources in earth sciences including the Internet Move from verbal/visual descriptions of a scientific process to an equation quantifying that process Communicate your observations, a process, or an argument in oral and written forms Be familiar with orders of magnitude calculations and conversion of units Understand the significance of different time scales and rates of processes Have facility with a map of the earth including locating places using longitude and latitude Be able to collect good data, keep good records and discern potential errors in your data Have facility with a spreadsheet to organize and perform calculations on data, to graph data in various ways, to understand and use basic statistical analysis on large data sets Understand the difference between accuracy and precision of data See where the knowable ends and the unknowable begins thus where problems are simultaneously unsolved and solvable Formulate strategies to answer unanswered questions involving multidisciplinary approaches including economics, politics, science, religion, and history 1 Week of Topic Reading Part I: THE PRESENT CLIMATE SYSTEM Aug 25 Intro to Global Climate Change SA: “The Year without Summer” The Earth’s Climate System: Overview Sep 1 Energy and Temperature Atmospheric moisture and chemistry Sep 8 General Atmospheric Circulation Ocean-Atmosphere interactions R: Ch. 1 AS: “El Nino and La Nina” Sep 9 Special Lecture 3-4:30pm Mark Pagani – Yale University IODP Distinguished Lecturer Sep 15 Atmosphere-Hydrosphere-BiosphereGeosphere Connections R: Ch. 3 SA: Ocean’s Invisible Forest AS: “Global Carbon Cycle” Part II: DISCERNING PAST CLIMATE: A. The Evidence Sep 22 Ancient Climate Records Sep 26 R: Ch. 2 SA: “Greenland Ice Cores” Jacoby: “Laki Eruption of 17 Proposal for Global Warming Project Due Sep 26-28 Geol Dept Field Trip Sep 29 Dating the Climate Record B. Tectonic-Scale Climate Change Plate Tectonics and Climate R: Ch. 4 SA: “Mt. Belts and Supercontinents” SA: “Plateau Uplift and Climate Change Oct 6 MID-TERM EXAM Oct 8-10 Oct 13-14 GSA Meeting (No Class) Fall Pause Oct 15-17 Pre-Cambrian and Paleozoic Icehouses SA: “How Climate Evolved on Terrestrial Planets” SA: “Snowball Earth” Oct 20 The Mesozoic Hothouse/ The Cenozoic Icehouse R: Ch. 5-6 Science: Zachos Et.al: “Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations…..” 2 C. Orbital-Scale Climate Change Oct 27 Solar Insolation and Milankovitch Cycles Monsoons R: Ch. 7-8 Nov 1 Saturday All-day Field Trip – Hot and Cold PA geology Nov 3 Ice Sheets, Ice Ages, and Sea Level Change Nov 5 Preliminary PPT for Global Warming Project Due Nov 10 R: Ch. 9-11 SA: “What Drives Glacial Cycles” SA: “Rising Seas” D. Millennial-Scale Climate Cycles Since the last Ice Age R: Ch. 12-14 SA: “Global Warming Trends” Science: “Cultural Responses to Climate Change” SA: “Abrupt Climate Change” SA: “How did Humans 1st Alter Global Climate” AS: “Climate Change in the Middle East” Part III: FUTURE CLIMATE? - The Present and Past is the Key to the Future! Nov 17, 24 Humans and Climate R: 15-16 AS: “A Second Look at Impacts of Climate..” SA: “The Coming Climate” (1997) AS: “Expert Opinion on climate change” Dec 1 Future Climate R: Ch. 18-19 AS: “How will Climate Change affect Human Health” AS: “Agriculture and CO2” SA: “Can we Bury Global Warming” Science: Greenhouse Effect: Sci. and Policy ********************************************************************************* Texts: (R) Ruddiman, 2008, Earth’s Climate: Past and Future, 2nd ed., Freeman Supplemental Readings: There will be supplemental readings from journals such as Nature, Science, Sci. American (SA), and American Scientist (AS) to augment the material not covered in the texts or lecture. The readings can be found on Blackboard: Course Documents. You should make a habit of reading a reasonable newspaper (Washington Post, NY Times), newsmagazine (Time, Newsweek, US News), or news website (BBC, CNN) on a regular basis to keep track of climate-related events throughout the semester. Foreign newspapers tend to be better at reporting climate events and issues. The Times of London is particularly good and available in the Library or you can read the foreign papers on-line. 3 LOGISITICS: Office Hours: Kaufman 142, voice mail at x1285, e-mail at [email protected] T, H (8:30-9:30); H, F (1:30-2:30) or by appointment. I am in my office much more than this so feel free to call ahead or just stop by. Grades: Mid-Term Exam------------------------------------------ 20% Lab Projects/papers-------------------------------------- 50% Global Warming Project/Presentation----------------- 30% Lab project papers not submitted on time will be reduced 3% for each day late. Projects not received within 10 days of due date will receive a grade of 0. Exceptions will be made for documented illness or family emergencies. Mid-term Exam will be mostly essay and/or problems to solve. It will require you to conceptualize, analyze, and synthesize material. The Global Warming project is described below. There is no final exam. Proscriptions on Conduct: I am required by the judicial code of conduct to report any incidents of intentional or unintentional cheating or plagiarism to the Associate Dean for adjudication. When in doubt reference any ideas or data that are not your own. All papers and projects should be your own work. Please follow the guidelines provided for preparing your papers and presentation. Accommodation for Disabilities: In compliance with the Dickinson College policy and equal access laws, I am available to discuss appropriate accommodations that may be recommended for students with disabilities. Requests for accommodations are to be made during the first three weeks of the semester (except for unusual circumstances) so that timely and appropriate arrangements can be made. Students are required to register with Academic Resource Services in the Advising Office located on the first floor of Biddle House (contact ext. 1080 or [email protected]) to verify their eligibility for accommodations. Special Events: Sep 9 3pm IODP Distinguished Lecturer Mark Pagani (Yale) Dr. Pagani is a world expert on rapid climate change of the Eocene and Oligocene Epochs of geologic history. We are not sure what caused this rapid change but knowing would be instructive for potential rapid climate change in the future. Sep 26-28 Geology Department Annual Field Trip This year the field trip will travel across the Poconos to the Delaware Water Gap to look at some glacial geology as well as into NJ and up into CT to look at triassic diabase sills coincident with the opening of the present Atlantic Ocean and Newark and Hartford basin lake sediments influenced by cyclical climate change. We will end up at Dinosaur State Park near Hartford for a look at evidence of their presence in NE US. Participation in this trip is optional but can take the place of the all-day trip in Nov. We will camp on this trip. 4 Laboratory Schedule for Global Climate Change – Geology 104 – Spring 2008 Lab Days: Aug 25-26 EXCEL/Powerpoint Primer – Your hometown weather MEET IN TOME 118 COMPUTER LAB Exercise DUE Sep 1-2 as Office 2003 or 2007 file dropped in Blackboard Drop box by 5 pm (Credit/No Credit grade) Sep 1-2 Is Global Warming Real? – A Statistical Analysis of Recent Temperature Data – MEET IN TOME 118 COMPUTER LAB Exercise DUE Sep 15-16 as Office 2003 or 2007 file dropped in Blackboard Drop box by 5 pm - Graded Sep 8-9 Work independently on “Is Global Warming Real?” project Sep 9 Combined lab section Special Lecture – Mark Pagani, IDOP Distinguished Lecturer Title: TBA – 3-4:30pm Sep 15-16 Climate and ENSO – Paper DUE Sep 29-30 in Blackboard drop box by 5pm MEET IN TOME 118 COMPUTER LAB Sep 22-23 Work independently on ENSO project Sep 29-30 Tree rings and Ice Cores - Paper due Oct 15 in Blackboard drop box by 5pm Oct 6-7 No Labs (GSA Meeting) – Work independently on Ice and Pollen project Oct 13-14 Mid-Term Pause Oct 20-21 Climate and Earth Materials - Paper due Oct 31 in Blackboard drop box by 5pm Oct 27-28 Mesozoic Climate Field Trip Nov 1 ALL-DAY FIELD TRIP-The Hot and Cold of PA geology Paper options: 1) Comparative paper on climate of Mesozoic and Cenozoic NE US 2) Comparative paper on climate of mid-Paleozoic and Cenozoic NE US Paper due Nov 10-11 in Blackboard drop box by at 5pm Nov 3-4 Holocene Climate of Africa: Effects on a Civilization Nov 10-11 Optional Lab for help with Global Warming presentation Nov 17-18 Global Warming Presentations Nov 24-25 Global Warming Presentations Dec 1-2 Global Warming Presentations 5 Global Warming & fill-in the blank Presentations (Powerpoint) Given the amount of information available now on Global Warming and the myriad of implications significant changes in climate might cause to social and economic structures globally, it is impossible to cover even a small part of it in lecture and lab. You may be very interested in one aspect of climate change that is related to your eventual or actual major. Here is an opportunity to research that interest and learn more for yourself as well as share your interest and teach the rest of us. Here are some broad potential topics (there are many more): Sea level Rise Fossil Fuel Energy Disease Severe Weather Agriculture Freshwater Availability Alternative Energy Conservation Economics Biodiversity Global/National politics and private/public policy Terrestrial Ecology Marine Ecology Carbon sequestration Others??? Some of these broad topics may be a cause; others may be an effect of Global Warming. Some could be argued either way. The topic is up to you but it must have some aspect of science in it especially if you are interested in policy or economics of climate change. You may take any aspect of the broader topics above for consideration. Indeed, focusing your topic will actually help to reduce your workload and make for a better, more in-depth presentation. Above all, your topic should be of significant interest to you. Each presentation will last no more than 20 minutes with time for questions/discussion at the end of each. When you have decided on a focused topic, e-mail me a very short description (proposal) of what you intend to do by Sep 26 including: 1) Your broad topic and the focus you intend to take 2) 2-3 readings on the topic (No Wikipedia internet sites, please) A preliminary Powerpoint presentation for review and suggestions is due in Blackboard drop box by Nov 5. Note there will be a lab period (Nov 10-11) when you can consult with me on your final Powerpoint presentation. Of course I’m available for consultation anywhere along the process. Get started early on this project!!! 6