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Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Climate change scenarios in Europe and their potential effects on crops and pests Part I: Climate scenarios in Europe Alessandro Dosio Climate Change Unit - Institute for Environment and Sustainability European Commission - Joint Research Centre [email protected] 1 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Is climate changing? 2 3 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Is climate changing? Observations of climate change (IPCC AR4, 2007) Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Why is climate changing? 4 5 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Why is climate changing? Changes in natural and human drivers of climate: (IPCC AR4, 2007) There is a very high confidence that the effect of human activities since 1750 has been a net positive forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m–2. Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate? 6 7 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate? Predictions of climate changes: the ‘uncertainty cascade’ Emissions Concentrations Scenarios from population, energy and economics models Carbon cycle and chemistry models CO2, methane, sulphates, etc. Global climate change Coupled global climate models Temperature, rainfall, pressure, etc. Regional detail Mountains, coasts, extreme weather, etc. Impacts Flooding, drought, food supply, etc. Regional climate models Impact models 8 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate? Climate system AOGCM 300 Km Numerical model 150 Km 5 Km AOGCM RCM Downscaling (Redrawn from UK Hadley Centre originals) Impact models 30 Km 20 levels 9 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM (IPCC AR3, 2001) Development of climate models Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Do models work? 10 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM 11 Do models work? Projections for 1990 to 2005 carried out for the FAR and the SAR suggested global mean temperature increases of about 0.3°C and 0.15°C per decade, These results are comparable to observed values of about 0.2°C per decade. Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean 12 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Changes in Temperature 13 14 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Changes in temperature Future (2080-2099) - present (1980-1999) (IPCC AR4, 2007) A1B scenario Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM 15 Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean Changes in Temperature Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. Seasonally, the largest warming is likely to be in northern Europe in winter and in the Mediterranean area in summer. Minimum winter temperatures are likely to increase more than the average in northern Europe. Maximum summer temperatures are likely to increase more than the average in southern and central Europe. Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Changes in Precipitation 16 17 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Changes in precipitation Future (2080-2099) - present (1980-1999) (IPCC AR4, 2007) A1B scenario Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM 18 Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean Changes in precipitation Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern Europe and decrease in most of the Mediterranean area. In central Europe, precipitation is likely to increase in winter but decrease in summer. Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Changes in Extreme Events 19 20 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Extreme events Theory Model prediction Observations (Schär et al., 2004) (IPCC AR4, 2007) Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM 21 Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean Extreme events Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase in northern Europe. The annual number of precipitation days is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean area. Risk of summer drought is likely to increase in central Europe and in the Mediterranean area. Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Ongoing work 22 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Ongoing work: ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE based predictions of climate changes and their impacts 5 year (2004-2009) FP6 project 15Meuro 77 partners + 19 affiliated 8 research themes http://www.ensembles-eu.org/ 23 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM Conclusions • Climate is changing and will continue to change • Europe will be affected by the changing climate • Expected changes in temperature (Max and Min), precipitation and extreme events • Our understanding of the climate system and its prediction (better models, new physics, higher resolution, probabilistic approach) is improving 24 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM 25 Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM 26 The climate system The complexity of the climate system and the multiple interactions that determine its behavior impose limitations on our ability to understand fully the future course of Earth’s global climate. There is still an incomplete physical understanding of many components of the climate system and their role in climate change. (IPCC 4AR, 2007) Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM 27