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EGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental Change
Gina Ziervogel ([email protected])
December 2011
This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
Film: Wake Up, Freak Out - then Get a Grip is a
short, animated film about climate change by
Leo Murray.
http://wakeupfreakout.org/about.html
Film discussion:
Note 2 aspects of each of the 3
components of vulnerability
 Exposure
 Sensitivity
 Resilience

Understanding the nature of environmental
changes and how different groups are exposed
in different ways (exposure)

Understanding how and why different systems
and different groups/individuals are impacted
differently by changes in the
climate/environment (sensitivity)

Understanding how people respond to the
changes, with a focus on the capacity to adapt
so the negative impacts are reduced (resilience)

Dominated by climate change
 Includes other large scale environmental change
such as land use change and land degradation

Human dimensions of GEC
 Links change in environment to social processes
 Globalization, Poverty, Disease, Conflict
Global mean surface temperatures have risen by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C from 19062005. The rate of warming over the last 50 years is almost double that over
the last 100 years (0.13°C ±0.03°C vs. 0.07°C ±0.02°C per decade).
www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs
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Hundreds of scientific expert reviewers
Hundreds of authors from various countries
More than 620 expert reviewers (e.g. WG1)
A large number of government reviewers
6 years, WG Chapters, Technical Summaries,
Summaries for Policy Makers Unanimous
approval at plenaries for all Working Groups
in 2007
(http://www.ipcc.ch/)
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1990 – The unequivocal detection of the
enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a
decade or more
1995 – The balance of evidence suggests a
discernible influence of human activity on the
climate
2001 – New & stronger evidence that most
warming observed over last 50 years is
attributable to human activities
Warming is
unequivical?
IPCC WGI Fig TS.23
https://www.ipccFigure TS.23
wg1.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/ar4-wg1ts.pdf
https://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
IPCC WGI Fig SPM.2

WGI – Climate Science
 Prof. Bruce Hewitson (Regional modelling)

WGII – Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation
 Dr. Guy Midgley (Biodiversity)
 Prof. Coleen Vogel (Africa)

WGIII – Mitigation
 Prof. Harald Winkler
IPCC Ar4, Ch 11
Rainfall(%)/Temperature changes by end of 21st Century
https://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/wg1-ar4.html
Most at risk because of low adaptive capacity,
multiple stressors
 Aggregate global damage costs (~1-5% of GDP
for 4deg warming) masks high costs in Africa
 Communities with high exposure, high
sensitivity and low adaptive capacity suffer great
damages
 Sustainable development can reduce
vulnerability but climate change can impede
achievement of sustainable development goals

(IPCC 2007)
https://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/wg1-ar4.html
Probably the single “largest threat to development and
poverty alleviation”
10 International development agencies
(Grid Arendal: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_vulnerability_in_africa)

By 2020
 75-250 million people projected to be exposed to increased water
stress due to climate change
 in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced
by up to 50%.

By 2080
 an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected
under a range of climate scenarios

Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise
will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations.

Threat of disease such as malaria, sleeping sickness and
dengue-fever. More study required.
(http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR4/website/09.pdf)
DJF
JJA
(CSAG, 2008)
DJF
JJA
(CSAG, 2008)
Crop
Suitability
changes
(Schulze, R. E. 2010. Atlas
of Climate Change & the
South African Agriculture
Sector: A 2010 Perspective).
Access atlas at
http://www.daff.gov.za/
Aloe marlothii subsp. marlothii distribution:
current and potential future distribution
(South African National Botanical Institute)
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Warming all round
Winter rainfall region drying
Increases in late summer rainfall in the E
Higher evaporation
Increased frequency of extremely hot days
Changes to climate variability
Up to a 10% reduction in runoff water
10% reduction in suitable cattle farming area
10-20% reduction in suitable maize farming area
38-55% reduction of the areas covered by the current
biomass
 Fire intensity increased by 10%
 Existing terrestrial biomes could shrink by 40%
 44% of plant and 80% of animal species would
undergo a significant alteration to their geographic
ranges
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Increased pests and invasive plants and health
problems due to vector borne diseases
Changes in the suitability of land for different types
of crops and pasture
Conversion of grassland to shrubland and invasion
by alien plants and other organisms
Loss of arable land due to increased aridity and
associated salinity, groundwater depletion and the
rise in sea level
Changes in the distribution of good quality water for
crop, livestock and inland fish production

Given the expected biophysical impacts of
climate change, what do you think the
impacts will be on South Africa’s people

Science supports evidence of global warming
 Scientists from around the world
 Supported by government
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Associated impacts being felt
Africa particularly vulnerable
We can ADAPT to this change

Adaptation is understood to be an
adjustment in the ecological, social or
economic systems in response to observed or
expected changes and their effects and
impacts in order to alleviate adverse impacts
or take advantage of new opportunities
(Adger et al, 2005)
Adger, N.W., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. 2005. Successful adaptation to climate
change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15, pp. 77-86
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Solomon, S., Qin, D.,
Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and Miller H.L. (Eds),
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press. (accessed at
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html)
All web links were checked in November 2011
Some slide material from:
Bruce Hewitson, Climate Systems Analysis Group
(CSAG)
 Coleen Vogel, Wits University
 Tom Downing, Stockholm Environment Institute
and GCAP
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