Download Climate change scenarios in Europe and their potential

Parma 06-07 December 2007 – EFSA SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM
Climate change scenarios in
Europe and their potential effects
on crops and pests
Part I: Climate scenarios in Europe
Alessandro Dosio
Climate Change Unit - Institute for Environment and Sustainability
European Commission - Joint Research Centre
[email protected]
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Is climate changing?
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Is climate changing?
Observations of climate change
(IPCC AR4, 2007)
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Why is climate changing?
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Why is climate changing?
Changes in natural and human drivers of climate:
(IPCC AR4, 2007)
There is a very high confidence
that the effect of human activities
since 1750 has been a net
positive forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to
+2.4] W m–2.
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Can we ‘predict’ the change in
the climate?
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Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate?
Predictions of climate changes: the ‘uncertainty cascade’
Emissions
Concentrations
Scenarios from population, energy and
economics models
Carbon cycle and chemistry models
CO2, methane, sulphates, etc.
Global climate change
Coupled global climate models
Temperature, rainfall, pressure, etc.
Regional detail
Mountains, coasts, extreme weather, etc.
Impacts
Flooding, drought, food supply, etc.
Regional climate models
Impact models
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Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate?
Climate system
AOGCM
300 Km
Numerical model
150 Km
5 Km
AOGCM
RCM
Downscaling
(Redrawn from UK Hadley Centre originals)
Impact models
30 Km
20 levels
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(IPCC AR3, 2001)
Development of climate models
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Do models work?
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Do models work?
Projections for 1990 to 2005
carried out for the FAR and the
SAR suggested global mean
temperature increases of about
0.3°C and 0.15°C per decade,
These results are comparable to
observed values of about 0.2°C
per decade.
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Projection of future climate:
Europe and Mediterranean
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Changes in Temperature
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Changes in temperature
Future (2080-2099) - present (1980-1999)
(IPCC AR4, 2007)
A1B scenario
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Projection of future climate: Europe
and Mediterranean
Changes in Temperature
Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean.
Seasonally, the largest warming is likely to be in northern Europe in winter and in the
Mediterranean area in summer.
Minimum winter temperatures are likely to increase more than the average in northern
Europe.
Maximum summer temperatures are likely to increase more than the average in
southern and central Europe.
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Changes in Precipitation
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Changes in precipitation
Future (2080-2099) - present (1980-1999)
(IPCC AR4, 2007)
A1B scenario
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Projection of future climate: Europe
and Mediterranean
Changes in precipitation
Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern Europe and
decrease in most of the Mediterranean area.
In central Europe, precipitation is likely to increase in winter but decrease in summer.
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Changes in Extreme Events
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Extreme events
Theory
Model prediction
Observations
(Schär et al., 2004)
(IPCC AR4, 2007)
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Projection of future climate: Europe
and Mediterranean
Extreme events
Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase in northern Europe.
The annual number of precipitation days is very likely to decrease in the
Mediterranean area.
Risk of summer drought is likely to increase in central Europe and in the
Mediterranean area.
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Ongoing work
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Ongoing work: ENSEMBLES
ENSEMBLE based predictions of climate
changes and their impacts
5 year (2004-2009) FP6 project
15Meuro
77 partners + 19 affiliated
8 research themes
http://www.ensembles-eu.org/
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Conclusions
• Climate is changing and will continue to change
• Europe will be affected by the changing climate
• Expected changes in temperature (Max and
Min), precipitation and extreme events
• Our understanding of the climate system and its
prediction (better models, new physics, higher
resolution, probabilistic approach) is improving
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The climate system
The complexity of the climate system and the multiple interactions that determine its
behavior impose limitations on our ability to understand fully the future course of Earth’s
global climate. There is still an incomplete physical understanding of many components of
the climate system and their role in climate change. (IPCC 4AR, 2007)
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