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Ideas 2015 Ideas submitted as potential highlight topics Title Modelling and forecasting the Earth's radiation belts Space Weather influence on the Earth’s climate system Quantitative synergy of “big data” with conventional observations and large computational models for hazard prediction and risk mitigation Summary We are increasingly reliant on satellites for a variety of applications including telecommunications, navigation, positioning, Earth-observation and defence. The majority of these satellites are exposed to energetic electrons in the Earth’s radiation belts. These so-called “killer” electrons damage satellites and can vary by orders of magnitude on timescales as short as hours. This variability is controlled by particle source, transport and loss processes. Understanding and modelling this dynamic environment is essential to help protect our space assets. This highlight topic proposes to increase our understanding of the satellite environment by assessing the role of wave particle interactions in the acceleration and loss of radiation belt electrons. Specifically, the role of magnetosonic waves in accelerating electrons to high energies at geocentric distances from 3-7 Earth radii (RE) needs to be understood and quantified. Closer in, at geocentric distances of 1.1-3 RE, electron loss due to three different types of radio wave needs to be assessed and quantified. The results will improve our understanding of near-Earth space and lead to improved radiation belt modelling and forecasting. The results will lead to improved space situational awareness, enabling satellite operators to respond to space weather hazards and facilitate post-event analysis, enabling satellite engineers and insurers to better understand the root cause of satellite anomalies. Space Weather couples to the Earth’s climate system through the perturbation of large-scale, natural circulation patterns that exist from the ground to about 90 km altitude. In the northern hemisphere the coupling takes place most strongly through the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which influences wintertime weather patterns in Europe and North America. In order to be able to utilize the understanding of this connection we need to combine knowledge of the energy deposited into the atmosphere from space weather processes with robust whole atmosphere modelling that includes ion and neutral chemistry at 50-90 km altitudes. We need to understand what energy is being deposited into the atmosphere by space weather processes, be able to incorporate the energy deposition mechanisms in whole atmosphere coupled-climate models, and integrate realistic model capability from the surface to around 150 km altitude. Only by undertaking whole atmosphere modelling that includes correctly specified input mechanisms will we be able to develop this topic area to have a useful predictive capability for the wider society. Quantitative synergy of “big data” with conventional observations and large computational models will transform resilience to a range of environmental hazards (e.g., floods, droughts, coastal erosion, forest fires). Conventional observing systems tend to be purpose-built, resulting in structured datasets and knowledge of their uncertainty (e.g., the new Sentinel-1 satellite mission). However, there are burgeoning sources of unstructured data from social media, crowdsourcing and independent sensor networks (e.g., smartphones, CCTV, cars), which may be intermittent and of unknown fidelity. A new, general framework is needed to allow quantitative use of unstructured data alongside conventional observations. A particular problem posed by opportunistic datasets is that the data quality is not homogeneous. Hence, new methods for characterizing and treating errors are vital for quantitative comparison of observations with models. Importantly, it is the fusion (or data assimilation) of structured and unstructured data with state-of-the-art computational models that will challenge our scientific understanding of processes and yield improved tools for hazard forecasting and risk management. For example, observations may be assimilated to evaluate model performance; choose model structures or parameter values and estimate the state of the real system to keep predictions on track. Both the models and datasets are large, requiring the development of fast computational algorithms for practical use. This research programme would establish the evidence base for future policy, such What is the single most important threat to the river environment? Radiation risk reduction for satellite launch, operations and insurance Improved forecasting of severe space weather: making the essential scientific advances Behaviour of marine organisms in turbulent environments – implications for deployment of marine renewable tidal- as how to adapt monitoring networks to work alongside “big data” and provide the best value for money. Given our limited resources which single factor should we tackle to have the greatest positive impact on wildlife species and populations in our rivers? Rivers run through agricultural, urban and industrial zones but which of these human activities most restrict population abundance or diversity? Should we focus our efforts on reducing nutrient loss or sediments from farming? Should it be a reduction in restrictive features in rivers? Could it be further reductions in phosphorus from effluent? Should it be the adoption of end of pipe solutions to remove organic compounds from effluent? Or the creation/re-creation of suitable nursery habitats? All would have their advocates and ideally we could afford to do everything but this is not realistic. Can instead the NERC Community find an objective method to rank these challenges by their recorded impact on wildlife? If we could identify which challenge was having the biggest impact then we would have a rational basis for the most successful investment in protecting our river wildlife. In 2014 Boeing introduced a revolutionary new way of launching large commercial satellites. By using electrical instead of chemical propulsion they have almost halved the cost of launch. However, instead of taking 10 days to reach geostationary orbit it now takes 200 to 300 days. During this time the satellites are exposed to much higher radiation levels than before and are subject to a much higher risk of radiation damage. The problem is that radiation levels can increase suddenly during magnetic storms, and once elevated they can take days or months to decay depending on location. Consequently, there is a very large uncertainty in the radiation levels that should be used at design stage and significant risk of radiation damage during operations. This highlight topic is to understand the source, transport, acceleration and loss processes that govern the variability of the radiation environment, to forecast the radiation using global models and to determine the realistic worst-case environment in order to assess the risk of satellite damage. The research will utilize existing networks of radars and magnetic field observations across the Arctic and Antarctic, and combine them with scientific satellite data and computer models to support growth of the UK space industry which is now adopting this new method of launching satellites. Earth's magnetic environment provides the protection needed to allow satellite communication, power transmission, aviation and navigation, but all these areas are threatened by 'space weather' events caused by material ejected from the Sun interacting with Earth's magnetic field. Severe space weather ranks alongside 'heatwaves' and 'heavy snow' as major natural risks to the UK. Such an event, though rare, could cause a disastrous widespread electricity failure, destroy key satellites, and cause severe health risks to astronauts and passengers on cross polar flights. Persistent low level space weather variability is also hazardous, by reducing the integrity of communication signals and the lifetime of electronic infrastructure. From 2014, the 24-hr space-weather forecasting from the Met Office now provides useful short range information on impending events. However, large gaps exist in our scientific understanding of Earth’s magnetic environment, obscuring detail on these short range forecasts, and in fact entirely preventing critical medium and long-range forecasting. We propose a major push to close this gap, building on the UK's strong research base in this field. The primary aims are to develop understanding and to build realistic models of the Earth’s magnetic environment. Attaining these goals will require development of better techniques to process and extract information from both existing and current ground and space-based data. The UK is in the process of testing a range of offshore submerged marine energy renewable devices with a view to developing large arrays. Such devices (underwater turbines, wings etc.) will be deployed in areas of high current flow. At the present stage developers and regulators are struggling with evaluating likely impacts of these arrays on marine ecosystems. Key environmental issues are what the effect of such devices might be on marine organisms which use these stream devices Asymmetric interhemispheric heating as a fundamental control on climate and the global water cycle Developing and derisking offshore environmental monitoring for CCS Measuring, modelling and forecasting the far-field consequences of volcanic activity New Insights into the Space Weather environments as part of their foraging space. There is evidence that both seabirds and marine mammals are attracted to such areas at certain states of the tide to forage. However, the distribution and behaviour of prey (forage fish, larger zooplankton) has hardly been studied in these environments because of the challenges of sampling using traditional techniques. However, a range of new approaches including imaging sonar, improved acoustic detection and cheap underwater video can now be used in these habitats. Therefore research is urgently required on the distribution and behaviour of marine organisms, and in particular forage fish, in these high-energy environments. Asymmetric heating between the northern and southern hemisphere is emerging as a fundamental control on Earth’s climate, in particular the hydrological cycle and the position of monsoon systems, of vital importance to billions of people. It links past, present and future climate change, involving a wide range of observational, theoretical and modelling methodologies and spans multiple disciplines including paleoclimate, atmospheric dynamics, oceanography, radiative forcing, seasonaldecadal forecasting and climate change prediction and impacts. Through improved understanding of inter-hemispheric heating, its determining factors and influences on weather, climate and societies, there is the potential for a number of major advances. These include understanding past controls on civilizations, on interpreting current regional changes in precipitation patterns and improving systematic and substantial biases in climate model simulations. Resulting potential improvements in the global model representation of monsoons, tropical cyclones, cloud characteristics, sea surface temperatures and ocean-atmosphere heat exchanges will ultimately enable more accurate seasonal-decadal forecasts and future projections of how the regional water cycle will change and impact societies in response to continued anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gas and particle pollution. With the imminent advent of large scale Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) operations under UK shelf seas, the UK must be ready to fulfil best environmental practice as required by European directives. We propose a program topic that will support operational CCS in the UK, lever against EU initiatives under Horizon 2020, and further develop the UK’s global leadership in marine CCS. In particular, there is an urgent need to develop and test best practice for shallow offshore monitoring including marine baseline acquisition, flow characterization and quantification and environmental impact assessment. Scientific development in sediment physics and biogeochemistry, flux detection, biological sensitivities to prolonged exposure, modelling and tracer application are also required. Furthermore, this work will contribute to societal understanding of energy options in the face of climate change, thereby facilitating the necessary transition to a low carbon economy. Volcanic ash is an environmental hazard with a large footprint, and chronic effects that may last long after an eruption has ceased. Volcanic ash hazards may impact global air transport systems and international supply chains; critical infrastructure, and life-support systems; and have both acute and long-term impacts on livelihoods and human health. The 2010 ‘Iceland Ash’ eruption led to global GDP losses of $4.7 bn; and many of the world’s major cities (including Mexico City, Tokyo and Singapore) are at risk from future volcanic ash crises. Empirical knowledge of volcanic ash hazards, and its impacts, has grown significantly in the past decade. However, there are no readily accessible tools or techniques for forecasting the consequences of future volcanic ash impacts; or for the rapid real-time monitoring, measurement and amelioration of the impacts of ash fallout and deposition during volcanic eruptions. This focused call aims to deliver a step change in our capacity to measure, model and forecast the far-field consequences of volcanic ash, and thereby to improve global resilience to this critical volcanic hazard. Space weather links solid Earth, atmospheric, ionospheric and magnetospheric processes providing cross-disciplinary research opportunities on a natural hazard Impact on the UK National Grid Marine Glaciers in the Earth System Quantifying the 2015/2016 El Niño and its environmental impacts using models and data Methane emissions from beneath the Arctic Ocean: Do they matter? now established on the National Risk Register. In this Highlight Topic we focus on the rapid, high amplitude geomagnetic field variations, caused by space weather, that drive damaging Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) through conducting networks such as power grids, pipelines and railways. Though existing UK GIC models are recognized for their geophysical detail, new insights are needed on the science underpinning these models. For example, what is the appropriate spatial and temporal characterisation of ionosphere electrical currents in respect of GIC, what can we learn from the limited verification of modelled UK geoelectromagnetic fields, and what is the best 3D model of subsurface electrical conductivity? Furthermore, industry needs GIC forecasts to prepare for impacts on electricity transmission. However GIC forecasting is a ‘hard’ geophysics problem, because of the non-linearities of the coupled Earth system, driven as it is by the solar wind. We therefore propose in this Topic to enhance our geophysical understanding of how the UK near-surface and subsurface responds to space weather. This will require more sophisticated modelling and monitoring and will ultimately lead to tools for assessing space weather impact on grounded infrastructures like the National Grid, together with industry and other partners. Direct line-of-sight between ice sheets, global warming and sea level rise is unambiguous. Glaciers and the ice-sheets that feed them cover 10% of the Earth surface and lock-in 75% of the Earth’s fresh water. As the Earth warms, ice melts; partial melt and runoff from this vast frozen reservoir will dominate future global sea level rise. Nowhere is ice-sheet behaviour more uncertain than where it meets the ocean. Here glacier dynamics are influenced by both ocean and atmosphere; coupled systems themselves with enormous ranges of internal and interactive time and space variation. Global temperature change to date has been most rapid in the Arctic, and in particular over Greenland and northeastern Canada. Greenland’s ice sheet is vast and, unlike other ice sheets, is losing mass at the fastest rate ever measured. The focus of this highlight topic is to join international efforts to understand the behaviour of Greenland’s marine terminating ice-sheet and outlet glaciers in the context of global atmospheric and basin-scale ocean-climate variability. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular mode of climate variability, characterized by changes in sea surface temperature gradients over the tropical Pacific with associated changes in atmospheric dynamics. The warming phase of this oscillation, El Niño, is associated with a band of warm water that develops over the eastern central equatorial Pacific. El Niño has environmental, societal, economic and political consequences that are immediate for countries bordering the tropical Pacific (agriculture and fishing over the east and drought over Australasia) and far-reaching, global impacts through atmospheric perturbations (e.g., anomalous rainfall and associated flooding in California). The last major El Niño was in 1997/1998 when Earth system models, in situ measurement technology and Earth Observation data, and data assimilation methods were much less mature than they are today, although some in situ measurement networks have deteriorated over this period. All major seasonal forecast centres are projecting for 2015/16 an El Niño that is equal or greater (and potentially more damaging) than the 1997/1998 event, which increased mortality rates of tens of thousands of people from exposure to elevated air pollutant levels and caused an estimated $20 billion of global damage. With improvements to data and models over the past two decades, the NERC community is well placed to exploit these tools to better quantify the size, position and structure of El Niño and its manifold impacts and to use this event to confront and develop the latest Earth system models that are used to project future climate scenarios. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and can be stored in ocean sediments in a solid form called hydrate that is stable at high pressures and low temperatures. Large volumes of methane hydrate are believed to be stored in continental margin sediments and submarine permafrost and these stores could be destabilised by a warming ocean, leading to methane emissions, a potential positive feedback in global climate change, and an intensification of ocean acidification and Projecting sea level from the open ocean to the UK coast Improving regional climate change projections: the impact of orography Fingerprinting magmatic-hosted ore deposits: A systems approach deoxygenation. Such a process has been invoked to explain the abrupt addition of large volumes of carbon to the atmosphere during ancient episodes of rapid climate change. Hydrate dissociation may also result in instability of slope sediments and large tsunami-generating landslides. Arctic hydrates are particularly sensitive to climate change because temperatures are expected to change more rapidly at high latitudes and because they are present in shallower water depths. During the last 5 years, voluminous methane fluxes into the Arctic Ocean have been identified west of Svalbard and on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Whether the observed emissions mark the start of a large-scale hydrate dissociation event remains controversial. Increased coastal flooding due to changing sea levels is a significant threat to society. The IPCC regional sea level projections are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have inadequate representation of near-coastal effects. The Hadley Centre aims to address this short-coming by working towards coupling global climate and coastal models, but current GCMs cannot resolve the connections between the open ocean and shelf seas or important on-shelf processes or adequately reproduce the internal variability present. This strategic research programme aims to better understand the processes of ocean-shelf coupling plus local coastal effects. The overarching objective is to develop improved coastal sea level projections taking intrinsic variability and the impact of extremes into account, making use of the newest generation of fine scale ocean models, which allows a full coupling from deep ocean to coast, and to confront the latest remote and in-situ observations with state-of-the-art modelling at high resolution. By assessing the drivers of recent changes we can generate shorter time-scale projections with the uncertainty levels needed for coastal adaptation decisions. Over the past two decades there have been great advances in our ability to predict changes in climate on spatial scales from hundreds to thousands of kilometres. While such broad-scale predictions provide a valuable framework for formulating climate policy, detailed assessment of the impacts of climate change and the development of adaptation strategies in many sectors, for instance agriculture, water resources and transport, requires predictions on much finer scales – maybe down to one kilometre or less. At these fine spatial scales both the mean climate and the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g. damaging winds, extreme rainfall, freezing temperatures) are strongly controlled by the interaction of largescale atmospheric circulation with topography on length scales of 1-100 kilometres, i.e. mesoscale orography. In parallel with developments in climate prediction, there has been a huge increase in our understanding of the impacts of mesoscale orography on weather at the local scale through phenomena such as cold-air pooling, downslope windstorms and orographic enhancement of precipitation. This has largely been driven by the need for improved numerical weather prediction (NWP) and has come about through a combination of observational studies, increased theoretical understanding and the development of improved models. It is now timely to bring together our understanding of these local processes with large-scale climate projections to deliver improved projections of climate and high-impact weather at the local scale. There have been significant parallel advances in the study of mineral systems and magmatic processes. This highlight topic aims to integrate them in the development of new tools for mineral exploration. The mineral systems approach focuses on identifying the large-scale processes that act as precursors to mineral deposit genesis, described as transient events resulting from a geological trigger— the challenge remains in linking the mineral systems paradigm to measurable geological observations. However, recent improvements in analytical techniques have revolutionized the study of magmatic processes. Microanalysis of radiogenic and stable isotopes, and of trace elements in igneous and hydrothermal minerals, has yielded precise ages of crystallization and mineralization; constraints on the Determining the effects of the global atmospheric electric circuit on environmental change Quantifying Blue Carbon ecosystem services and assessing human impacts on coastal carbon assimilation, transfer and storage Impact of extreme events on natural capital – a more holistic understanding rates of chemical changes from measurement of diffusion profiles; new insights into the role of volatiles and records of changing physico-chemical conditions during the evolution of magmatic systems. This proposal brings these approaches together to develop (i) reliable proxies for distinguishing magmatic rocks associated with mineralization from those that are not, and (ii) robust indicators of proximal mineralization from magmatic rocks and/or younger sediments obtained in drill core. In 2012 global exploration expenditure was over $20 billion representing a footprint of over 3000 sites. Typically, this effort only results in an average of 20 new deposits per year. Reducing this effort by 20%, through a mineral systems approach, will significantly improve regional and district-scale exploration successes, and reduce the net economic and environmental cost of deposit discovery. There is now convincing evidence that weather and climate are influenced in a way that is yet to be recognized and assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or included in any General Circulation Model. This underexplored influence involves solar modulation of the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC). It is well established that magnetic fluctuations from the Sun cause changes in the electric field in the polar ionosphere and consequently of a downward current Jz to the ground. It is now also apparent that these changes are linked to variations in temperature and pressure in the polar troposphere, and to changes in planetary wave structure. These effects are large enough to affect weather forecasts but the longer-term climate impacts are currently unknown. The missing link in our understanding is the mechanism by which the downward current affects temperature and pressure. A strong candidate is electrical charging effects on cloud droplet concentrations and size distributions. Droplet distribution is known to affect energy conversions between latent heat and kinetic energy and the partitioning of the short-wave and long-wave radiative transfer. Thus our idea is to focus UK research expertise in the GEC, aerosols and clouds to test and understand the hypothesized GEC mechanisms to a level sufficient for them to be included in a GCM, such that their impact on weather and climate can be more fully assessed. Despite their relatively small spatial extent, both nationally and globally, vegetated coastal ecosystems (kelp, mangrove forests, seagrass beds, and salt marshes) and their associated marine sediment sinks are disproportionately important in sequestering carbon dioxide in comparison to terrestrial ecosystems. Vegetated coastal habitats assimilate carbon 40 times faster than tropical forests and their total contribution to long-term sequestration is comparable to that in terrestrial ecosystems. As vegetated coastal habitats are the most carbon-rich ecosystems in the world and can sequester and store carbon for millennia, they should be prominent in strategies to mitigate climate change. However, our ability to manage and protect these natural coastal carbon sinks is impaired by our limited understanding of the abiotic and biotic factors that promote carbon assimilation and long-term storage. In the UK, vegetated coastal habitats (primarily kelp forests, salt marshes and seagrass meadows) serve critical functions as both repositories for biodiversity and major sources and sinks of assimilated carbon. Consequently, they are likely play a key role in climate regulation. The mechanisms underpinning carbon storage, remineralisation and transfer to long-term coastal sediment stores, through coastal vegetated habitats in the UK are, however, almost entirely unknown. Combining contemporary analytical techniques with targeted, broadscale ecological sampling will allow for a robust assessment (and ultimately valuation) of the importance of vegetated coastal habitats in natural carbon sequestration and provide significant impact in terms of potential climate change mitigation strategies. The global environment is changing rapidly and human activity is the biggest cause. Yet both our wealth as a nation and our individual wellbeing depend critically on the environment and on improving understanding of the value of natural assets and the vital goods and services they provide. Reports by the Natural Capital Committee (NCC), show how we have undervalued our natural resources – leading to ongoing loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems, with failure to value water for environmental needs playing a key role in this process. This proposal will help address a critical need to improve predictions and de-risk the potential impact of extreme weather events (floods, water scarcity and high temperatures) on biodiversity, ecosystem goods and services and the sustainable use of our natural capital assets. Lightning Discharges – Initiation, Development, Impact Deep-sea habitats and their response to climate in UK overseas territories Hydroclimate change: from the past to the Current research on droughts and floods, and research on natural capital and ecosystem services is done largely independently with little holistic understanding of the impact of extreme events and the potential for nature based solutions. There is a need is to improve current modelling capability and the knowledge for decision support for long term planning purposes and to optimize multiple benefits from investments based on a more holistic approach. To help achieve this goal we need a better understanding of how water is regulated at a catchment scale taking account of the physical and biological factors that influence the process. Lightning discharges remain an enigma to date despite intensive research. Whilst lightning discharges are used as an indicator for now-casting severe weather in meteorological operational services, the initiation of lightning discharges inside thunderclouds, their spatial and temporal development and consecutive discharge processes above thunderclouds, known as sprites, blue jets, gigantic jets, elves, terrestrial gamma ray flashes and terrestrial electron flashes, are the subject of intense research. These processes have an impact on energetic charged particles in the Earth’s radiation belts resulting from space weather variability. Lightning discharges are listed in the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies several lightning casualties are recorded every year across the UK and lightning is a threat to offshore oil platforms, windfarms and national air traffic services. The now- and forecasting of electrical storms is assisted by lightning detection networks operated by the Met Office and EA Technology and novel lightning detection sensors are developed by Bristol Industrial and Research Associates Ltd. However, within the next decade three space missions will enable the development of novel strategies toward the now- and forecasting of lightning discharges - the ASIM payload (ESA) on the International Space Station, the microsatellite TARANIS (CNES) and the next generation of geostationary satellites MTG (EUMETSAT), all of which will carry optical lightning detectors into space to push forward the boundaries of knowledge on the initiation, development, and the impact of lightning discharges. Despite covering vast areas of our oceans, being rich in species as well as hosting hotspots of high endemism, the deep sea is poorly studied. Deep-sea ecosystems harbour fisheries and have potential for natural product discovery; in addition the deep sea contains natural resources, including oil and gas, and has the potential for mineral extraction. At the same time, deep-sea habitats host carbonate-forming species that record the environmental history of our ocean basins. The UK’s overseas territories include isolated islands with extensive, complex and potentially biodiverse marine ecosystems spanning latitudes from the tropics (e.g. Ascension Island) to polar regions (e.g. South Georgia). Several of these territories have been declared, or may in the future be declared, Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), but there is little knowledge of the habitats they comprise, and even less about how these habitats may evolve under future climate change. For example, only 3% of the Chagos Marine Reserve in the Indian Ocean has been documented, with almost no information on the deep sea. Here, it is proposed to use UK Overseas Territories (OT) as a focus for understanding the drivers and evolution of deepsea habitats, specifically establishing the potential impacts of a changing environment on deep-sea ecosystems and to simultaneously improve the knowledge base for management and conservation of these ecosystems as part of a global network of MPAs. Variability in seasonal and decadal precipitation patterns, such as those associated with the monsoons or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affects the future Bringing a focus to space weather: how terrestrial processes extract and concentrate energy from the solar wind Long-term landscapescale ecology experimentation security of billions of people through the disruption it causes to water and food supply, disease and the damage that results from droughts or floods. Unforced decadal-centennial timescale variability is observed to be significant, but remains poorly constrained. In addition, with atmospheric pCO2 now at 400 ppm and predicted to rise to ~800 ppm by 2100 (concentrations last present over 34 million years ago), drastic future changes in global climate are inevitable. Accurately predicting how major precipitation patterns will change in the near future, in terms of amount, seasonality and distribution of rainfall, is one of the most pressing challenges faced by climate modellers, and subsequently policy makers. Verification targets for climate models can be attained by accessing information in the palaeorecord, since it can provide estimates of precipitation during past analogue time periods or during major transitions. New proxies and high-resolution geological archives that permit palaeo-precipitation reconstruction with unprecedented confidence are becoming increasingly available. These include novel geochemical and paleontological records from deep-sea and lake sediments, corals, tree-rings and peat bogs. It remains a considerable challenge, however, to quantitatively test and improve models using records of palaeo-precipitation due to uncertainties in both the reconstructions and past climate forcing. To realise the full potential of this timely advance in palaeo-reconstruction techniques, better integration is therefore needed between the modelling community and those generating proxy records of precipitation. The UK has the potential to be world leading in this area because of its pre-eminence in both palaeoclimatology and climate modelling. How does the Earth’s magnetic field and atmosphere focus energy from the Sun to produce severe space weather conditions on Earth, sufficient to disrupt societally critical technologies? The Sun drives a variety of space weather phenomena that can influence terrestrial environments. Some, e.g. solar flares, distribute energy evenly across Earth producing modest effects whose spatial variation can be described by simple geometry. But the energy inflow from other solar phenomena, e.g. notably solar wind disturbances such as coronal mass ejections, is strongly focused by terrestrial processes, in both space and time, such that the power flux into the upper atmosphere may be several thousand times that in the solar wind. This focusing can produce locally severe effects including rapid changes in the geomagnetic field and strong spatial gradients in the density of ionisation in the upper atmosphere (ionosphere). The first of these can disrupt operation of power grids, railways, pipelines, whilst the second can disrupt radio signals critical to use of many satellite applications, notably satellite timing and location (e.g. GPS), but also many satcom systems, as well as tracking systems widely used by shipping and civil aviation. A better understanding of the terrestrial processes that convert solar wind energy into severe space weather is essential, both for better modelling of “how bad can it get” in severe events, and also forecasting those events. Progress in spatial ecology requires the establishment and maintenance of longterm, large-scale field experiments to study the ecological effects of landscape management. Landscape ecology is a field of growing importance, due to evidence that many ecological processes of theoretical and applied interest (e.g. local population dynamics, community composition, biodiversity and conservation) are strongly affected by their wider landscape context. The dynamics of populations and communities play out over large spatial and temporal scales, and large-scale and long-term experiments will greatly improve our mechanistic and causal understanding of the processes governing them. Results from such work could help guide landscape management for conservation or ecosystem service provision. Experiments on this scale would be challenging to organise: they would require cooperation of substantial public or private landowners over decadal or longer timescales, and provisions should be considered to allow successful projects to apply for follow-on funding to monitor long-term experimental outcomes. With such provisions in place, the experiments will allow a step change in British landscape ecology, and potentially help provide a firmer evidential basis for conservation biology, agri-ecology habitat restoration and related spatial ecology issues. Biodiversity Search and Translation Engines for Innovation Effective and efficient search and translation engines tools are required to harvest the biodiversity information dormant in biological texts and specimens in museums and herbaria for the creation, implementation and exploitation of new natureinspired processes, structures and functions for the UK industry. This activity conciliates responsible and sustainable exploitation of natural resources and increased productivity with expectation of increased human society prosperity and quality of life. The transfer of knowledge from the field of biology, zoology and botany to engineering is complex due to the dispersion and specialization of nature-based knowledge, the high level of required cooperation between experts from different disciplines (biologists, zoologists, botanists, museum curators, chemists, physicists, and engineers) as well as the lack of mutual understanding of their respective terminology and research cultures. It is crucial for all relevant disciplines to have the tools to exchange their accumulated knowledge and ideas for biomimetic discoveries and developments. This proposed knowledge infrastructure in biomimetics bridges the gap between engineers’ needs and biological data by adapting a series of informatics tools which include ontology explorer for biomimetics database, intelligent image retrieval associated to botanical and zoological images and interrogation of databases using natural language. Atmospheric oxygen: its decline, uncertainties, and horizon of availability Quantifying North Atlantic Ecosystem Response to Environmental Forcing New understanding of atmospheric reactive nitrogen chemistry and its impacts This idea spans unashamedly across the traditional funding boundaries of the NERC, BBSRC, AHRC and EPSRC. Atmospheric oxygen is declining by a small fraction every year, most likely due to increased use of fossil fuels (IPCC AR5). This decline is estimated to be nonlinear (following the nonlinear increase of carbon emissions), but the horizon of dangerous depletion is difficult to quantify due to the short (~20 years) observed data and uncertainties, modelling and technological. Depletion of oxygen will accelerate with industrial expansion and current intensification of wildfires due to climate change. Particularly important, further oxygen depletion will occur due to growing industrial processes, such as Haber-Bosch (fertilisers), involving materials and products processing and manufacturing using natural gas and oil, as well as catalytic oxidation. Joint multidisciplinary efforts are necessary to model atmospheric oxygen projections, alongside the needs to maintain observational programmes and assess new industrial technologies that may deplete atmospheric oxygen. In the North Atlantic, ecosystems and their physical and chemical environments are changing. Since the early 1990s to around 2012, the subpolar gyre contracted, boundary currents decelerated, and comparatively warm and salty waters from the Biscay region surged northward into the Iceland and Rockall Basins. The change in water masses also brought a change in the nutrients supporting the local ecosystems. Observations of silicate concentration in the upper-ocean (south of Iceland, in the Labrador Sea, off the Norwegian coast, and the Rockall Basin) show a decline over the past decade. Is diatom production, the base of the ecosystem, also reducing and/or shifting its biogeography? Concomitant changes to types, ranges and distributions of economic fisheries have also occurred. It is presently unknown exactly why and how ecosystems are responding to inter-annual to decadal changes in forcing. In summary, the hypothesis is that the North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation has the potential to regulate ecosystems, and thus impact a major component of UK food production and security. Reactive nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere are a major source of air pollution, governing the formation of ozone, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and nitrate aerosol particles. They influence oxidation processes through control of OH radicals and aerosol nucleation through volatile amines, and contribute to ecosystem damage through deposition of nitrogen to vegetation and soils. While the main chemical pathways were identified in the 1970s, recent lab and field Seabed Resource Mapping for the 21st Century Exploiting numerical weather prediction to support the reliable and secure development of renewable power generation in the developing world Improving management of observations and analysis have demonstrated that major gaps in our understanding remain, particularly for short-lived species such as HONO which enhance rapid oxidation, ClNO2 and organic nitrates which permit storage and transport of nitrogen, and agricultural ammonia and amines as aerosol precursors contributing to urban haze. Nitrogen oxide emission from vehicle exhaust remains a major problem in UK cities, which regularly exceed EU air quality thresholds for health, and nitrogen deposition measurements fail to match the fall in primary reactive nitrogen emissions, highlighting weaknesses in our understanding of primary and secondary emissions, transformation and scavenging processes. These gaps in knowledge need to be addressed through new lab, field and modelling studies that build on recent NERC investments in measurement campaigns, and which will allow improved assessment of reactive nitrogen impacts on human health and ecosystems. At least half the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) is not yet covered by highresolution seabed surveys and, hence, the UK is lagging behind several countries in the quality of seabed information. This lack of data threatens our environment and limits the development of our natural resources. In recent years, the focus for offshore surveys has turned to the use of multibeam echo-sounder (MBES) data, supplemented by sampling and seismic profiling where possible. The MBES data provide images of the seafloor that not only allow geologists and other marine scientists to construct new high resolution interpretations of the seafloor, but also allow the data collected in previous programmes to be re-interpreted, in places where the MBES data have provided greater detail of the seafloor environment. This step-change in resolution was driven by new technology, but also by new competing uses of the marine environment. In the 1970s, the prime purpose of the new surveys was focused on the growing oil and gas industry; but, since then, there have been dramatic increases in offshore industry, including aggregate extraction and the construction of some of the largest offshore wind farms in the world. Environmental issues, associated with coastal erosion, fishing, habitat preservation and the reaction of the seas to climate change, have resulted in EUled regulations which require much higher resolution data than that provided by the early maps. Westminster and the devolved governments have reacted to these challenges by developing marine spatial planning. However, the real advances have been from the collection and interpretation of new MBES data. Building on the recent advances and network established by the NERC-funded National Capability Marine Environmental Mapping Program (MAREMAP), we seek to widen the data collection and sharing by focussing the UK seabed mapping community in the identification of seabed resources beneficial to the UK economy. Earth’s climate warming is widely expected to have damaging impacts for food, energy and water security. The de-carbonisation of power generation is a major part of both climate mitigation strategy and the wider goal of moving away from unsustainable fossil-based energy and its associated geopolitical insecurities. Energy meteorology is an essential part of this endeavour and has seen the development of new research bridging the gap between energy and meteorology, affecting both demand for power (e.g. heating/cooling) and supply of renewable resources (wind/solar/hydro-electric generation). Energy meteorology is expanding in Europe and North America, but is poorly exploited elsewhere. Developing economies in the tropics are, however, expected to be the main sources of growth for energy (from industrial and population growth) and projected increases in power demand growth in Asia far outstrip those of the West. To supply this power sustainably and in-line with carbon commitments, development of effective and intelligent renewable resources is needed. Applying established methodologies of energy meteorology to tropical variability, such as the monsoons, and in Africa, will allow better utilization of renewable energy resources and ensure that energy systems are designed to be resilient to the variations in power output caused by weather and climate variability. Lightning presents a potent weather hazard to people or systems, with many injuries and several deaths occurring annually in the UK from lightning. The atmospheric electricity hazards CCS and saline pore fluid production and displacement Emerging hazards in near shore ecosystems (and food products) as a result of multiple stressors. Negative Carbon Emissions – Feasibility and Impacts modern reliance on widespread electronic infrastructure brings with it vulnerability to lightning-induced transients. Physical protection is a long-standing mitigation methodology, for example as used on aircraft. This has been informed by past statistics on lightning, but these may no longer be reliable under climate change, which is expected to increase convective activity in some regions. Critically, existing lightning detection systems only respond to an actual lightning event, which may itself be the cause of a system failure or even a fatality, therefore providing zero warning to the region affected. For a lightning discharge to occur, a cloud must, firstly, have become strongly electrified and, secondly, a propagating leader be initiated or triggered by an external energetic event. Effective recognition of electrically developing clouds may therefore provide advanced warning of situations in which lightning may occur, providing more opportunity for evasive or mitigation procedures before the first strike. The idea here is to focus UK research in atmospheric electricity to develop capability for identifying highly electrified pre-lightning clouds, to improve warning times for lightning forecasts. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key component of the UK’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction strategy. One of the most promising CO2 geological storage options for the UK is the potential to store CO2 in deep saline aquifer formations offshore in UK waters. CO2 Stored (www.co2stored.co.uk) estimates a national storage capacity in such aquifers of up to 60 Gt of CO2 (compared with annual total emissions of approximately 0.5 Gt). Injection of CO2 into subsurface aquifers causes pressure rise and displacement of native pore fluids which sometimes have salinities and chemistries that are not conducive to ecosystem health. The key unknown is whether this displaced pore fluid, either via seepage to the seabed or manual extraction (production) and subsequent disposal has a significant environmental impact risk that would undermine storage capacity, increase costs or impact public acceptance of CCS. Modelling suggests that between 23 and 100 % equivalent volume of pore fluid to CO2 injected could be produced to maximise storage capacity and minimise pressure inference in target areas. We therefore propose a highlight topic that would quantify extraction rates, dispersion processes, impact and management strategies for extracted brines with a view to de-risking future CCS operations. This topic addresses two of NERC’s societal challenges ‘Managing environmental change’ and ‘Resilience to environmental hazards’. The UK shellfish industry is worth over £250 million annually and is an important contributor to the UK economy. Climate and oceanographic changes will not only lead to oceans warming steadily but also affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events (e.g. heavy rainfall and longer and warmer summers). Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a human pathogen and globally the leading cause of seafoodassociated gastroenteritis. The presence of V. parahaemolyticus in the environment is dependent on temperature and salinity. Fluctuations to temperature and salinity as a result of climate change will lead to conditions favorable for the growth of V. parahaemolyticus increasing the exposure of this pathogen to the shellfish consumers. A recent report in Science indicates that pathogenic Vibrio species pose one of the greatest risks to public health in the European Union in the coming years due to the strength of the disease link to climate change [1]. In the last 15 years, rising sea temperatures has led to an increase in V. parahaemolyticus outbreaks worldwide and for the rise in cases seen in Europe. Data from North east USA and the Baltic Sea, suggests that temperate regions are particularly vulnerable to the emergence of pathogens, demonstrating clear correlations between episodes of unusually high water temperature and outbreaks of pathogenic Vibrio infections [2, 3]. The aim of this highlight topic is to address whether V. parahaemolyticus can act as an indicator of climate change as well to help ascertain and manage the risk they may pose to human health. The goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change, defined as more than 2oC of warming. The latest climate science indicates that this will now almost certainly require negative global CO2 emissions (Fuss et al. 2014). There have been a Expanding the molecular toolbox to address global environmental change Understanding Marine Metapopulation Structures in a changing environment Polar Opposites: Contrasting Sea Ice Changes in a number of potential Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniques or Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) proposed (see Research Questions), but these are currently under-developed and have poorly quantified side-effects. For example, most scenarios considered in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR5) that achieve the UNFCCC target assume negative CO2 emissions (Gasser et al., 2015; Anderson, 2015), primarily through large-scale implementation of BECCS (Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage). The feasibility of such expansion of BECCS is however highly uncertain, in view of its land and water requirements, that conflict with increasing demand for food and freshwater, and also have potentially adverse environmental impacts, both on biodiversity and unintentional climatic effects. There is an urgent need to establish what level and mix of NETs is societally and environmentally acceptable, and to assess the feasibility and impacts of alternative ways of achieving the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere – thereby providing scientific guidance, at the national and international level, in this crucial policy area. As a result of environmental change on microbial activity, ‘dead zones’ are expanding, greenhouse gas cycles are evolving and harmful algal blooms are increasing in frequency worldwide, with concomitant threats to ocean productivity, oceanic carbon sequestration, and derived industries (e.g. tourism, fisheries and aquaculture) but the enormity of space, time and diversity scales hinders adequate measurement and parameterisation of the problems and identification of novel solutions. There is a need for sequence-based approaches beyond rRNA phylogenetic markers in molecular ecology because function cannot be predicted by phylogeny (e.g. the transfer of key genes between species has resulted in the proliferation of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity). Three major advances have emerged independently in recent years: 1) the widespread application of environmental ‘omics,’ 2) bioinformatics innovations to analyse interacting systems and 3) the miniaturisation of autonomous devices. With innovative advances in Systems Biology, molecular ecology has the potential to move from a descriptive field, yielding potential networks based on coincident timing of expression of key genes, to one which can test hypotheses, deliver quantitative fluxes and predict outcomes such as toxicity and trophic effects based on the entire ecosystem, through space and time. Transformative science, merging deployable sensors with novel omics techniques will reveal drivers of population distributions and activities by integrating microbial function into its environmental context, leading to promising environmental diagnostics. We know that anthropogenic forces including climate change are the main causes of habitat destruction, fragmentation and biodiversity loss in terrestrial habitats. It has long been suspected that these spatially explicit forces are also having profound effects on the population dynamics of most species in marine ecosystems, However, we do not understand the spatial dynamics of marine populations well enough to move forward with confidence and at lower risk in the spatial management of new activities such as regional fisheries, Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and large scale renewable developments. For most species in UK waters, including financially important commercial fish, benthic species and charismatic species (seabirds and marine mammals), it is not even known whether UK waters host a single population or multiple interconnected populations. Classical metapopulation theory explicitly focuses attention on the specifics of patches of habitat types and requires defined reasons for patchiness and mechanisms of connectivity between populations. Quantifying metapopulation structures of multiple species across trophic levels, including spatio-temporal heterogeneity in demography and linking the physical, temporal and genetic connectivity of populations will allow us to effectively manage our oceans for both increasing intensity of anthropogenic uses and sustainable levels of productivity and biodiversity. Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, but Antarctic sea ice is slowly expanding. Scientists cannot explain this discrepancy, and climate models do not reproduce it. This provides a high-profile example from which climate science may be (quite Warming World Attributing Persistent and Damaging Events A case study of expanding of hypoxia in the oceans: The Bay of Bengal and its biogeochemistry A “whole earth and human systems” validly) attacked (‘Global warming computer models confounded as Antarctic sea ice hits new record high…’ Daily Mail 5/7/14). The Arctic ice decline is widely held to be the result of human activities, but if it is the result of ‘global’ warming or of ‘polar amplification’ of warming then this should also be true in the Antarctic. The climate models in IPCC assessments produce a similar ice decline at both poles. This decline is slower than the observed Arctic ice loss, and in direct contradiction to the Antarctic increase. Since sea ice is linked to all aspects of polar climate, these poor results impact our ability to project future changes in Arctic exploitation, northern hemisphere weather, global ocean circulation, oceanic carbon drawdown, and sea-level rise from Greenland and Antarctica. A coordinated UK programme with expertise at both poles is required to reconcile the contrasting trends observed under ‘global’ warming and improve their representation in climate models. This idea aims to establish the science base for quantification of the human influence on high-impact weather events such as the UK flooding of winter 2014 and the European heat wave of 2015. Such events are uncommon (typically less than once a decade in any particular location) driven by persistent circulation anomalies, often on a seasonal scale that may be enhanced or influenced by regional forcings or feedbacks such as land surface drying or atmosphere-ocean interactions. Examples are the storm track lying over southern England in the UK winter rainfall event 2014 and the role of long-lived blocking events in recent heat waves and cold spells. This type of event has caused enormous damage to both capital assets and human well being and there is intense public, political and media interest in the role that human drivers have had in such events. This Highlight Topic will aim to understand how much climate change is changing the likelihood of such events, quantify local feedbacks that strengthen such events, and determine if climate change is affecting the persistence of relevant atmospheric circulation or strengthening feedbacks, such as through increased evaporation and drought. Fundamentally, these are probabilistic questions and so a secondary focus of this project will be approaches to do this. Only a quantitative approach that considers both local and remote effects and critically evaluates models ability to simulate circulation changes can reliably attribute cause to the changing probability of extreme events. Advanced oxygen depletion (hypoxia) in the oceans impacts heavily on watercolumn and seafloor ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. Models consistently project future expansion of hypoxia, and increasing occurrence of well-publicised “dead zones”1 highlights that it may already underway. Within this context, the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is exceptionally significant. Like its neighbour the Arabian Sea (AS), it has a basin-wide, mid-water (~200-1000m) oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), together forming an important fraction of Earth’s hypoxic waters and overlaying ~60% of the Earth’s margin sediments currently exposed to hypoxia2. However, unlike the AS, the BoB’s OMZ is poised just short of extreme hypoxia3. Reasons remain uncertain, but there is consensus that the bay is extremely prone to future intensification and expansion of hypoxia4. The potential consequences - ecological, biogeochemical and socio-economic - are immense. A unique feature of the bay is the massive influence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra river system, which effectively turns it into an “open ocean estuary”. It has been hypothesised that riverine sediment discharge controls mid-water hypoxia by serving as “ballast” that limits organic matter decay and more rapidly transfers it to the sea floor3. A multidisciplinary research programme is needed to test this hypothesis, as part of a wider assessment of current water-column and seafloor ecosystem function and their susceptibility to future mid-water and coastal hypoxia. It would require novel in situ studies carried out across continental margins (shelf to open ocean), to involve an unprecedented combination of experimental, geochemical, biological and modelling approaches. To explore the challenge and understand the current science, data, uncertainty modelling and scalability limitations required, to undertake a “whole earth approach to urbanised catchment simulators Role of atmospheric ionization in weather and climate Melting of the Greenland ice sheet in response to oceanic and atmospheric forcing Improving process understanding of vegetation fire for prediction of societal risk and climate change systems” modelling approach down to catchment, city and dwelling scale. To develop a co-operative simulation environment for research-based models that could integrate natural, built environment and human behaviour data, potential interactions and uncertainties and their impact on urban ecosystems, infrastructure, service delivery (water, energy, transport, waste and pollution control) and human wellbeing. To include time scales and cohorts of “gaming” scenarios, from extreme events interrupting daily, essential urban service, life cycles to multi-decadal planning for resilient adaptions to change. Some model and simulator components may exist (geology, flooding, pipe networks, air pollution) but not an integrated and interactive, city-scale system able to address the uncertainties and range of timescales required. The simulator would have wide spread applications to: screen and test research ideas, inform urban and catchment planning, develop and test resilience and systems management (water, energy, transport, ecosystems and infrastructure) in the context of climate change and increasing urban population. The global atmospheric electrical system depends on the slight conductivity of atmospheric air, which originates from the cluster ions it contains. The cluster ions are generated by constant ionization from cosmic rays and natural radioactivity, with additional ionization occurring during space weather events. It is not widely appreciated that cosmic rays also provide ionization in the stratosphere and troposphere, and are the dominant source of ionization in the marine boundary layer. As well as making the air electrically conductive, molecular cluster-ions are the smallest constituents of the atmospheric aerosol spectrum. The presence of atmospheric cluster ions is now considered likely to influence the earth’s radiation balance, directly through absorption in the longwave parts of the spectrum, and indirectly through their interactions with clouds and aerosol. In the upper atmosphere, cluster ions create radiatively active species through chemical processes. The radiative impact of these different processes is currently poorly understood and certainly not yet quantified. It is amenable to investigation both experimentally and theoretically, with the goal of allowing global modelling studies to quantitatively evaluate the direct and indirect radiative impact of cluster ions. Approximately 25% of the global mean sea level rise observed in recent decades comes from melting and discharge of the Greenland ice sheet. Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet can also contribute to reorganisation of the Atlantic ocean circulation, with potential impacts on regional and global climate. Recent observations indicate a significant link between rapid ice discharge and ocean warming. The interaction of ice and ocean presents certain commonalities with that in Antarctica, but the Greenland ice sheet provides unique challenges. The Greenland ice sheet discharges through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many running out into the ocean through narrow proglacial fjords which modulate ocean circulation and heat transport to the ice. Furthermore, climatic warming drives significant surface melting in Greenland, which can influence ice sheet flow, and provide freshwater fluxes via subglacial discharge that impacts fjord and ocean circulation. The calving of icebergs also provides a significant contribution to the mass balance. In order to make confident projections of sea level rise and ocean freshwater fluxes, we need an understanding of how these factors fit together to control the mass balance of the ice sheet and its contribution to sea level rise. This highlight topic would combine observations of these disparate processes, understand their linkages and impact on glacier mass balance in a single “closed catchment”, and use the resulting insight to constrain and develop models for use in future projections of Greenland melt and sea level rise. The aim of this topic is to advance process understanding of and improve the ability to predict vegetation fires around the globe, their role in the Earth system, and their risks to society. Fire exerts controls on ecosystem function, species diversity, plant community structure and carbon storage, and emits CO2, reactive trace gases and particulate matter to the atmosphere, impacting on both regional air quality and global climate. More than 5M people globally were affected by the 300 major fire events in the past 30 years, causing $52,300M losses (EM-DAT; Multiple stressors in aquatic ecosystems Defining a framework for deriving sea ice extent in the presatellite era Bio-inspired Environmental Sustainability: Translating Understanding of Organism Adaptation to Building Adaptive Capacity of Ecological Systems http://www.emdat.be). Fire poses significant risks to society; mitigation of this risk requires better understanding of fire processes. Projections of an increased prevalence of drought in fire-prone regions in the coming decades, such as Southern Europe, Western USA and Australia, place an urgent priority on improving this understanding. An increasing trend in fire activity has already been noted in some of these regions. Fire and climate are intimately linked: changes to climate drive changes to fire, and in return fire alters climate through changing surface properties, and as a source of climate active gases and particles. Climate change may substantially increase future societal risks from fire, but fully interactive fire- vegetation -climate-chemistry modelling is not yet mature enough to be included in Earth System Models as used the IPCC AR5. This topic will advance knowledge of fire processes, fire feedbacks and fire risks, in order to deliver credible assessments of future changes in fire regimes in the near term (decades) to long-term (century), allowing us to better anticipate their impact on ecosystems, human health and infrastructures. Global climate change stressors combined with more regional anthropogenic pollution are currently driving changes at an unprecedented rate in Earth’s history, threatening the health of marine and freshwater ecosystems. Global warming, aquatic acidification and increasing incidence of hypoxia are occurring alongside more regionalized stressors, including chemical pollution. This is challenging aquatic organisms with novel combinations of multiple stressors, and increasing the risk of local and global extinction events. There is an urgent need to move beyond single stressor experiments to understand how these factors interact to affect aquatic organisms and populations. A mechanistic perspective is needed on the physiological and adaptive capacity of aquatic organisms to respond to combined global and local environmental challenges. This knowledge will allow the construction of evidence-based predictive models to facilitate risk- based management focused on key priorities for the UK, EU and international agencies (e.g. Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive etc.). This will reduce uncertainty of future projections, inform policy and drive solutions to counter the impacts of multi-stressors on aquatic ecosystems. Sea ice plays a major role in modulating global climate. It alters the albedo of the Earth’s surface, and the physical and biological processes that can draw down CO2 from the atmosphere. Climate simulations predict a decline in sea ice with increasing greenhouse gases in agreement with observations in the Arctic while Antarctic sea ice exhibits regional decline but overall expansion. Observational records are short (post-1979) making it hard to assess the significance of the recent trends or understand the consequences of changing sea ice on polar (and global) climate and marine biodiversity. Reconstructions of past sea ice extent, on centennial to millennial timescales, are possible using proxies derived from ice core data and could provide valuable boundary conditions for the current climate models. However, to be used with confidence, the potential proxies, both chemical and biological, must be properly understood and rigorously calibrated. Changes in climate and land use generate threats from flooding, drought, pollution, and infectious disease against which our cities, infrastructure and natural spaces will have to adapt and become resilient. “Nature-based solutions”, which are actions inspired by, supported by, or copied from nature, are increasingly used as a resource-efficient means of environmental management. The “nature-based solution” concept builds on the services provided by ecosystems, but more generally looks to nature for knowledge of design and process. A potentially huge source of such knowledge, which remains largely untapped, is from understanding how organisms maintain the health of their bodies and have adapted to particular environmental challenges – an approach called biomimicry. To open up this source of innovative environmental management, there is a need for research that first recognizes those organismal adaptations (morphological or functional) that have potential for translation to a nature-based solution (which may involve engineering landscape morphology, managing flows and ecosystem feedbacks); this will involve a thorough understanding of both physiological mechanism and ecosystem Redrawing the coast: an interdisciplinary programme combining marine, freshwater and terrestrial science at the land/sea boundary Interactions between aquatic and terrestrial biomes: biotic and abiotic responses Hydrological constraints to lowland peat restoration function. Second, the research should both propose and test alternative approaches to scaling up to provide cost-effective environmental intervention. This will allow us establish guidelines that will enable successful translation of this knowledge to make effective management interventions, at usually larger spatial and temporal scales, in environments prone to particular risks. Coastal habitats are some of our most naturally dynamic ecosystems and are important places for people and wildlife. Major re-shaping of coastline that protect people and infrastructure is now underway due to unsustainable costs of maintaining coastal defences and modification due to ongoing global environmental change. Other pressures forcing coastal change include exploitation of coasts to deliver low-carbon energy (e.g. £1 billion potential investment in a Swansea Bay tidal lagoon). These developments are already in progress yet the near and far-field effects of these multiple pressures on the structure and function of coastal ecosystems are not well understood. Potentially, this has major economic impacts as the total economic value of the ecosystem services provided by the UK’s coast are estimated at £48 billion (UK NEA). Currently past research on the dynamics of coastal margins, shorelines and offshore systems has either focussed on single issues (e.g. sediment transport or ecosystem service provisioning) or has been site specific limiting our capability to effectively respond to these challenges. There is therefore potential for significant scientific advancement, underpinned by an urgent strategic need, to quantify multi-directional exchanges and interdependencies among terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, underpinning sustainability. This highlight topic proposes to initiate new ways of working across the science communities, developing common understanding of the challenges posed by managing environmental change at the land/sea interface. Britain is a land mass surrounded on all sides by costal marine ecosystems and internally supports ~400,000 km of freshwater streams and rivers which connect the landmasses in a complex moving lattice. A considerable emphasis has been placed on research devoted to understanding these systems in isolation however the aquatic biome cannot and should not truly be considered as separated from the terrestrial biome. Terrestrial and aquatic systems interact continually from ocean currents interacting with climate to agricultural runoff modifying the freshwater ecosystems. These have direct (e.g. movement of species in and out of systems such as the emergence of aquatic insects) and indirect (changing nutrient availability) impacts on productivity and biodiversity of both biomes with specific measurable abiotic and biotic effects. The net result challenges our stewardship of natural resources with significant societal and economic impacts to the UK and our commitments to international resource standards (e.g. Water Framework and Habitat Directives). The purpose of this proposal is to promote high quality research which considers the impact of links between these biomes. These links should be biotic (e.g. species interactions such as predation) and abiotic (e.g. biogeochemical cycling) in nature and must be considered across at least two systems. In particular this call focuses on three components: 1. Measuring ways in which aquatic and terrestrial systems interact on a landscape scale 2. Experimental manipulation of these interactions to measure their stability and resilience to modification of either biome 3. Understanding whether one biome may have a buffering effect promoting resilience to modification in the other. Lowland peat in the UK was historically drained for agriculture and low water tables continue to be maintained to support agricultural production. However, drained peat is subject to oxidation and the Adaptation Sub-Committee have identified these soils as being particularly vulnerable to loss; there is a risk that the peat topsoil layer in the Fens could be lost in the next 30 to 60 years due to management and climate change. Apart from their value as productive soils, lowland peatlands are also significant carbon stores and their restoration will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Any plans for restoration needs to be balanced with the potential loss of high grade agricultural land and be guided by the potential to restore individual sites. However, it cannot be assumed that all lowland peatlands are restorable as the hydrological systems that formed them have been significantly modified by man. In some areas settlements have been built which rely on the continued drainage (through pumping) of the peat. Therefore, there may be other societal constraints to restoration related to regional hydrology. Maintaining productive use of lowland peat whilst reducing the loss of carbon and greenhouse gas emissions Restoration of significantly eroded upland peat to fully functional blanket bog Understanding the “invisible” parts of the water cycle: Bridging spatial, temporal and conceptual scales to enable sustainable management of water resources A methodology is required to identify which sites are restorable, i.e. where there are no hydrological constraints to lowland peat restoration, and be applied to the lowland peatlands of the UK to guide decisions on restoration. Lowland peatlands in the UK are some of our most productive soils and are used to grow high economic value crops, i.e. field vegetables. However, the Adaptation Sub-Committee has identified these soils as being particularly vulnerable to loss. For example, there is a risk that the peat topsoil layer in the Fens could be lost in the next 30 to 60 years due to management and climate change. These sites are the source of significant greenhouse gas emissions. Balancing the environmental benefits of restored peatland with its economic potential is difficult. Full restoration of these sites would take land out of agricultural production. However, there may be management strategies, e.g. through seasonal changes to the water table, which could allow ‘dry’ agricultural production to continue, both prolonging the productive lifetime of these soils and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Where sites are re-wetted paludiculture or ‘wet’ agriculture may be practiced. However, there are few UK examples of paludiculture in practice. Successful management strategies to maintain ‘dry’ agriculture on lowland peat soils need to be identified and the potential for ‘wet’ agriculture explored. The economics of each practice and the benefits for greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services need to be estimated. Peatland comprises a significant proportion of the total UK soil carbon pool and its management is of great concern due to its vulnerability to changing climates, relationship with greenhouse gas emissions and provision of numerous additional ecosystem services. Blanket bog is a priority habitat under the Habitats Directive and is globally rare. Britain has about 10-15% of the total global area of blanket bog. The strategy to date for restoring heavily eroding upland peat has been to stabilize the eroding peat surface and introduce typical bog vegetation. However, without further action this will not necessarily result in a fully functional blanket bog ecosystem. This will normally require some action to restore the hydrology of the site and raise the water table. In a heavily ‘hagged’ and eroded peat this is likely to be particularly challenging due to the topographic variability across the site. If society is to benefit from the full range of ecosystem services of blanket bogs a more sophisticated restoration plan for these sites needs to be developed. Holistic understanding of water resources is needed to manage effects of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes, yet to achieve this there is a disconnect between surface hydrology and subsurface hydrogeology that requires bridging. To address the basic challenge of sustainable management of water resources, recent and ongoing NERC strategic programs have boosted research on managing the ‘visible’ part of the water-cycle, i.e. land surface, immediate subsurface and atmosphere (Changing Water Cycle 2009-2015; UK Droughts & Water Scarcity 2013-2018; Using Critical Zone Science to Understand Sustaining the Ecosystem Service of Soil & Water (CZO) 2015-2018; Dynamics of freshwater ecosystems within an integrated landscape system). To better understand and predict how our Autonomous Observation of the carbonate system and Air-Sea CO2 flux Flood risk resilience from soil management Forecasting debriscovered glacier recession due to climatic change planet works, however, requires water management tools with much better integration of the ‘invisible’ parts of the water-cycle, i.e. shallow to deep subsurface water systems: achieving this outcome is the aim of this highlight topic. Observing the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 is of critical importance to understanding historic, present and future climate change, with the oceans historically having absorbed ~48% of our fossil fuel emissions . The UK and NERC community plays a leading role in the measurement of CO2 in the surface waters of the world’s oceans not least through the international SOCAT initiative and ICOS. This data together with wind and wave and other data (e.g. from ships and satellites), has enabled estimate of the flux (or rate of exchange) of CO2 from the atmosphere into the global oceans. To date, the majority of the data have come from scientific instrumentation carried on the world’s merchant vessel fleet. However, there are significant gaps in the data, including in the Southern ocean, Arctic, Indian Ocean, Malayan Archipelago, South Atlantic and South Pacific where suitable shipping routes are sparse and conditions are challenging for manned systems. This initiative will develop technology and conduct demonstration deployments that measure the carbonate system (including dissolved CO2) using robust instrumentation and autonomous vehicles. Such vehicles could fill the gaps in spatial coverage, and also gather extensive time-series of data which would hugely improve our understanding of the process of air-sea CO2 transfer. We will combine existing capability in state of the art robotic vehicles instrumentation operation and research to create a measurement capability that can be directed to autonomously map the carbonate system in regions of sparse or non-existent data, or to important isolated or episodic events such as storms associated with high air-sea fluxes but which are currently poorly measured and therefore understood or parameterized in models. This will augment our understanding of air-sea CO2 flux and will provide fresh insights into the associated acidification of our oceans. Weather, seasons, land management and ecology can all induce changes to the terrestrial environment over short-time frames. Very broad questions remain, however, on the extent and causes of these changes, so their incorporation into predictive models of terrestrial processes is weak. A significant recent example is the potential for farming practices that destabilize or compact soils to lead to winter flooding. Hydrological models do not adequately account for changes in soil water transport properties over time after extreme weather, between seasons or resulting from tillage, often do not take into account connectivity to groundwater, and only limited research has explored the potential for ecology to restore the hydrological functioning of soils. This idea focuses on better describing the linkage between climatic change and the dynamic response of debris-covered glaciers. Fundamentally, the scientific community lacks primary data relating to long-term (decadal) mass balance, diurnal to seasonal ablation rates (and their drivers) beneath variable debris thicknesses/lithologies, ice and debris thermal properties and ice thicknesses. A strategic opportunity therefore exists to install sensor networks at glaciologically important sites, e.g. in mountain ranges such as the Himalayas and the Andes, primarily to improve forecasts of water availability and glacier disappearance. Primary data relating to the drivers of mass gain and loss in debris-covered glacial environments are difficult to acquire across wide areas given extreme topography and, in places, political access restrictions. Most recent research has therefore relied on poorly-parameterised and poorly-validated model outputs. Several papers have made regional-scale predictions about the impact of changing ice volumes on river flows, but without the ability to consider how the mass balance of individual glaciers or even across a catchment may change, or to be able to explicitly partition the contributions of glacier melt vs precipitation vs groundwater to basin hydrology. Decision-makers in regions dependent on glacier melt for irrigation and sanitation therefore base adaptation and resilience strategies on best-guess estimates. Two other major issues are closely associated with this environmental challenge. The first relates to our knowledge of glacial lakes and outburst flooding; questions How will restored habitat patches contribute to functioning ecological networks? Understanding complex fluid flow pathways in low permeability geological media remain about the drivers of supraglacial pond expansion, mechanisms of dam failure, and modelling of flood extents/timings. The second relates to our knowledge of previous glacial activity; timings of glacial maxima, previous ice volumes and rates of recession over centennial-millennial timescales. By deriving better quality and more spatially comprehensive data relating to the drivers of mass gain and loss on debris-covered glaciers the scientific community will have the necessary tools to advance knowledge in all three of these areas (water resources, glacial lakes, palaeo-environments) yielding tangible and measurable social benefits. Some key land-use policies (see below) are predicated on the idea that ecosystem function can be maintained in heavily human-modified landscapes as long as there is a certain minimum amount of "green infrastructure" to form a "functioning ecological network". However, the existing science base does not tell us what amount and configuration of habitat features would actually deliver a functioning network. We propose the first concerted program of experimental habitat network creation anywhere in the world, to address these major knowledge gaps. Habitat patches would be created experimentally in different contexts in fragmented landscapes, in order to test how they lead to the recovery of lost population sustainability and resilience at a whole-network scale. Populations of representative species, with a variety of traits and ecosystem roles, would be monitored both before and after the intervention, both in the restored patches and in the pre-existing habitat. Dispersal between patches would also be monitored for selected species using tracking technology and genetic methods. The experimental design would test the effects of patch size and connectivity, while cutting across the effects of landscape history and species pool (e.g. with replicate blocks in widely differing landscapes). The experiment would increase in value over time, but could also produce important, policy-relevant results within 5-6 years. Knowledge of the fluid flow properties of low permeability rocks and sediments is vital in a range of areas such as predicting the long-term performance of radioactive waste disposal and CO2 storage sites; understanding flow in unconventional petroleum reservoirs; modelling the injection of waste products, such as produced during oil field decommissioning; and understanding the movement of sediment and magma in the subsurface. However, fluid flow mechanisms and pathways in such materials are poorly understood and controversial. For example, the petroleum industry and the radwaste disposal community have opposed views on two-phase flow through shale. The former views flow as occurring either along brittle fractures or via capillary leakage whereas, the latter argues that high fluid pressures deform the rock to create new flow conduits (i.e. pathway dilation). Here we propose funding research in this vital area with particular focus on quantitative understanding of pathway dilation on a range of scales from grain-scale microfractures to large seismogenic faults and the enigmatic vertical fluid flow ‘chimneys’ seen in unconsolidated sediments. UK research is conducting laboratory measurements of fluid flow through low permeability sediments (e.g. BGS) and EU funded projects on the nature of fluid flow chimneys (e.g. University of Oxford). It is also developing both passive and active seismic tools to monitor the development of flow conduits (e.g. University of Bristol, Imperial College). A specific call on this subject would allow UK groups from many disciplines to work together to provide a step-change in our understanding of, and ability to model, fluid flow in these important rocks. Ideas submitted as potential strategic programme areas Title Volcanic Geohazards: Getting the full picture from the Summary Explosive volcanism poses a moderate-frequency but high-impact hazard worldwide. While the terrestrial record is poorly preserved, the marine record is far more complete and provides a more comprehensive window into the frequency, marine record Biogeochemistry, physics and ecology of the Indian Ocean – a Multi-disciplinary, Multi-year Expedition (BIOMME) Macrophysiology in the Anthropocene and the future of ecosystem resources magnitude, impact and processes leading to and resulting from explosive eruptions. Furthermore there are over 25,000 submarine volcanoes, which are as equally hazardous as terrestrial volcanoes. Unlike their terrestrial counterparts, technologies to monitor some of the most threatening submarine volcanoes remain primitive and require novel development. By identifying key locations, we will assess past and present explosive volcanoes and their hazards. Data from the geological record and medium-term monitoring, using new and novel technologies, will be combined with regional information in statistical models to assess the current and future threat posed by explosive volcanoes, especially those impacting on UK interests. The southern Indian Ocean (from approximately 10˚ to 40˚S) is a highly dynamic region, in terms of physics, biogeochemistry and ecosystems. It provides a major link in the global ocean circulation, via the Agulhas Current, to the Atlantic Ocean. Despite this it is one of the least studied, understood and characterised regions of the world’s ocean. The aim is to carry out a multi-disciplinary, multi-year study encompassing physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of this poorly understood region of the world’s ocean. This would lead to advances in modelling of the region and in our understanding of its role in the global climate system, thus improving projections of future change. The research would contribute to the 2nd International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE-2; 2016-2020). The era of human industrialisation, the Anthropocene, is an age of unprecedented change for species living on planet earth. A combination of habit loss, over harvesting and rapid environmental change is markedly affecting where species can and cannot live. Humans rely on the predictable supply of plants and animals to provide essential “ecosystem services” such as habitat, food and well-being. In particular food security is high on every nation’s political agenda. Whilst understanding patterns of Biodiversity has pre-occupied humans throughout scientific history, there has arguably never been a greater need to understand the factors that will determine species distributions into the future. Multiple physical and biological factors interact to determine species resilience to variability and change in their environment. Comparative studies of individuals, populations and species, across environmental and biological gradients, can help us understand how environmental variation has driven the evolution of species capacities – their physiological tolerance. Recently, there has been a strong scientific focus towards the search for “macrophysiological rules” that describe species capacities across spatial gradients. The ability to improve predictions of future patterns of biodiversity requires new approaches and enhanced integration across disciplines. The UK has strength in depth in these disciplines that, if integrated, will place the UK at the forefront of this global field. Deep Frontiers: Deep-sea mining is predicted to be worth up to £40 billion to the UK economy, fundamental ecological from exploitation of the mineral resources on the ocean floor and global research for the UK's opportunities for the UK's subsea technology and environmental consultancy future in deep-ocean sectors. But the development of this industry is currently hampered by a limited mining understanding of the ecological dynamics of deep-sea environments, essential for responsible management of their resources and to reduce risk of liability for operators. We therefore propose a Strategic Programme to revolutionise our understanding of the biodiversity and resilience of marine ecosystems relevant to deep-sea mining, thereby advancing fundamental ecological knowledge of our planet's largest biome and delivering the NERC goal of "managing our environment responsibly as we pursue new ways of living, doing business, and growing economies". The UK research community is well-placed to lead the world in this field, through a track record of recent deep-sea discoveries, NERC investments in cutting-edge facilities for marine research and novel analytical techniques for life sciences, and a diversity of relevant deep-sea habitats available for study in UK overseas territory EEZ and seafloor claim areas. The Southern Ocean’s The Southern Ocean is the site where much of the interior ocean ventilates to the Role in the Earth atmosphere, and much of the interior water masses are formed. As a result, it System. WAIS-deep The Indian Ocean and UK science: The 2nd International Indian Ocean Expedition 2 (IIOE2) exerts enormous influence over the whole Earth System, with profound socioeconomic consequences on the lives and livelihoods of its inhabitants. (a) It is critical to the global carbon budget, central to understanding past natural atmospheric CO2 variations, and taking up much of the anthropogenic carbon absorbed by the ocean. (b) It is where a large proportion of the excess heat associated with global warming is being stored. (c) The up- and downwelling of nutrients in the Southern Ocean is a key process that drives biological productivity over much of the globe. (d) The Southern Ocean upwelling is the major influence on the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet, with profound consequences for the rate of future global sea level rise. (e) It is the region most sensitive to the onset of ocean acidification, with widespread impacts on biodiversity and the biological influence on climate. However, the Southern Ocean is also the biggest data desert on the planet, especially in winter. This has severely hampered progress in understanding its role in these processes. Our current climate and earth system models disagree (with each other, and with the measurements such as they are) on almost all the important issues concerning Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake, contribution to sea level rise, mechanisms and formation rates for deep water, and causes of past natural change. Similarly, they disagree on how the region will respond in the future under climate change. To address these issues we propose a major, multi- and cross-disciplinary programme of observations, theory and modelling, reaching across physical, biogeochemical, paleoceanographic and cryospheric disciplines, using ships and autonomous vehicles, remote sensing and earth system models, and involving many institutions in the UK and partnerships abroad. Since the 1990s, satellites have shown accelerating ice-loss driven by ocean change in five neighbouring glacier basins that drain more than one-third of West Antarctica. The rate of ice-loss here doubled in just six years and now accounts for ~10% of global sea-level rise. However, considerable uncertainty remains in projections of future ice-loss from West Antarctica, and in particular, from Thwaites Glacier (TG), which has the highest potential of all for rapid collapse. A major multi-disciplinary research programme focused on TG would substantially improve both decadal and long-term (multi-century) projections of ice-loss and sea-level rise, and support improved management of UK coastal risk. Decadal projections would be delivered by incorporating key observations from the crucial zone where TG comes into contact with the ocean, into state-of-the-art, coupled ice-sheet and oceanographic models. The long-term would be addressed by answering the critical question, did Thwaites Glacier survive the last interglacial? This period is the prime geological analogue for future greenhouse warming: global and Antarctic temperatures were higher than present, and Antarctica contributed to sea-levels 6-9 m higher than present. Observational evidence obtained from sub-glacial beds, would constrain the extent and timing of past deglaciation of TG, and provide the first opportunity to test hypotheses regarding the instability of marine ice sheets and the irreversibility of current changes. The UK has made significant contributions to Indian Ocean (IO) science, including the 1st International Indian Ocean Expedition, 50 years ago. However, the region remains amongst the least understood marine ecosystems. Here, a cross-section of the UK marine science community propose coordinated, multidisciplinary research in the IO region. It will form a key contribution to the 2nd International Indian Ocean Expedition1, sponsored by the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), to be launched in December 2015. The IO is universally recognised as home to unique biological, physical, geological and biogeochemical phenomena and complex landocean-atmosphere interactions. These have far-reaching impacts on ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles and climate, but are also sensitive to environmental change and human influences, while having impacts on the ~1/3 of the human population A National Experimental Platform for Long-Term Ecological Research Shaping a green and blue future for cities The Southern Ocean – Atmosphere System and Global Climate Evaluating and managing risk associated with UK unconventional gas extraction that lives in IO rim countries. Many of these phenomena, and how they may respond to environmental change, remain poorly understood. The IIOE2 is a unique opportunity to build on recent UK studies in the IO. Research would include atmospheric and land-based studies and use of remote sensing and modelling approaches, as well as ocean-going research in marine physics, geology and geophysics, biology and biogeochemistry. There is an outstanding opportunity for beneficial collaboration with other contributing nations, to include joint operations of research vessels. We propose a national platform for long-term experimental research to address the unmet needs of climate change research. In a world where all environments are being subjected to change, we need to know, understand and be ready for what lies ahead. A changing climate is affecting ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, it will alter soils and hydrology, increase species extinctions and facilitate invasions. Although some effects are already evident, others will be cumulative over long periods of time. Interactions with pollution, land management and community composition have the potential to create feedbacks that will complicate responses to climate change. Long-term experiments (LTEs) are essential to understand cumulative changes we see in the landscape. They can help us reach a deeper level of understanding than can be obtained by ecological monitoring alone. They allow us to attribute change to specific causes and identify mechanisms; we can also manipulate conditions beyond currently prevailing limits and test the resistance of ecosystems to change and measure resilience to extreme events. Long-term experiments can capture rare events, detect cumulative ecological effects and reveal tipping-points when things change dramatically and often unexpectedly. They can also supply accurate parameter values for use in predictive models of biodiversity and ecosystem change under climate change. Green and blue spaces in cities – parks, gardens, canals and waterways – are not only core to our human health and well-being and to the urban environment, they can also have a positive impact on our social fabric and on local economies. Despite these known benefits, the largest missing piece of the conceptual puzzle is an understanding the scale at which green and blue spaces must be created, where and in what form, in order to deliver their potential services to cities and the ecosystems within which they sit. As global populations become increasingly urbanized, the associated environmental stresses within and around cities will increase. These effects are likely to be exacerbated by the effects of climate change and extreme natural events. A holistic approach that combines the natural and engineered aspects of the urban environment with how people live in cities and their health and wellbeing is needed to ensure the future with humans living in harmony with the planet. Green and blue spaces are key to that approach. The Southern Ocean is a critical modulator of global heat and carbon dioxide within the Earth System. However, the fundamental processes thate control the exchange of heat and carbon dioxide between the Southern Ocean and the Global atmosphereenable this role are neither adequately understood nor quantified. Global models, which form the basis for future climate projections and mitigation strategies, are unable to properly represent these processes. The consequent uncertainties in model results limits our confidence in future climate assessments. These uncertainties, however can be reduced or even eliminated through a carefully-targeted programme of field measurements combined with modelling studies. The idea presented here is for such a programme. It will focus on the Southern Ocean and the surrounding sea ice zone, will be multi-disciplinary, will utilise some of the UKs major scientific assets and strengths, and will capitalise on previous NERC investment. While fitting entirely within international priorities, the programme will be driven by strategic requirements for the UK and for NERC. The UK’s unconventional gas resource is estimated to exceed 1000 trillion cubic feet, sufficient to supply gas demands for decades, providing economic and environmental benefits and improving the security of energy supply. The aim of this SPA is to provide the scientific basis that underpins the safe and economical extraction of unconventional gas in the UK, using the nascent ESIOS system. Of Sea-Level Rise – Path from Source to Coastal Impact Ionospheric effects on SAR radar imaging Urban water environment and management programme Global assessment of the function and diversity of tropical forests in the 21st century Identifying the potential for transformational particular interest is the development and validation of models capable of simulating the environmental impact of hydraulic fracturing operations in the subsurface, and the establishment of effective environmental monitoring techniques for guiding such operations. By doing so, the potential risks associated with unconventional gas extraction can be better characterised and mitigated before, during and after hydraulic fracturing operations. Increased coastal flooding due to climate change and changing sea levels is a significant threat to society, with an estimated $6 billion in annual global flood losses in 2005, projected to increase to $52 billion by 2050 due to socio-economic changes alone1. While the IPCC has projected globally averaged sea-level rise in the likely range of 0.28 - 0.98 m for the year 21002, there are major differences between global mean sea-level change, which is an important integral measure of the change in the climate system, and coastal change, which is the relevant issue for planning and adaptation. We propose a focused effort to resolve the processes and elucidate the physics that links different sources of sea-level rise to changes at our coasts. Synthetic Aperture Radar is an important tool for a number of environmental fields and its development more and more relies on its accuracy. There are small deviations to SAR radar signals which create errors at small but significant scales and these errors will become more obvious as future research looks to ever improved resolution. These errors need to be understood by modelling the ionospheric and atmospheric environments and by studying the variability at small scales in the observations. Environmental change and the trends towards expansion and intensification of urban living present many research challenges for the environment and society in towns and cities, in the UK and globally. A new NERC programme to address these issues is needed, to provide multidisciplinary understanding of water in the city, covering both the present day and future trends and pressures upon ecosystems, infrastructure, economy, population and health. It would encourage research which combines scientific understanding and technological innovation at a wide range of scales from domestic properties, local communities up to City regions, river basins or catchments including the natural subsurface, and from daily to multi-decadal time-scales. Research would focus on whole system approaches and interactions between the urban ecosystem, blue-green infrastructure and water availability and quality, as well as between the natural, built and human environment of urban living. Tropical forests store a quarter of Earth’s living carbon, generate one third of land productivity, and are home to at least half its species. They are being increasingly modified by climate and atmospheric change, fragmentation and land-use change, with poorly understood consequences for regional and global climate, the water and carbon cycles, and maintenance of ecosystem services. This Idea for a Strategic Programme seeks to draw together the UK’s tropics-focused scientific community to determine the consequences of these changes across the pan-tropics for the function and diversity of tropical forests in the 21st century. It would allow NERC to: (i) lead the monitoring of the world’s tropical forests from ground, air and space, to the standards needed for scientific exploitation; (ii) provide a step-change in understanding the processes that maintain forest function and ecosystem services; and (iii) develop models that decrease the substantial uncertainty in projections of Earth’s climate and biodiversity. This requires the UK, with partners, to harness its world-leading capabilities in ecological processes, tropical forest properties, biomass, biodiversity, land use change, ecosystem services and drivers of change, and to integrate these with predictive modelling. A Strategic Programme would provide a timely early warning system of current and future changes to the tropical forests that potentially have global environmental, economic and societal impacts in the 21st century. This idea is about understanding the coping limits of the natural environment (and society) to extreme climate events, and at what degree of climate change these limits are breached such that these systems start to break down irreversibly. adaptation to climate change Towards sustainable management of the Critical Zone through strategic synergistic use of mechanistic modelling, and remote & in-situ sensing technologies Predicting the urban atmosphere across scales Causes and Consequences of Energetic Charged Particles in the Earth’s Atmosphere Integrated climate change impacts, adaptation and Considered in a natural hazard framework, the idea is about identifying key vulnerabilities in the natural infrastructure on which human societies depend, and enabling policymakers to understand when doing ‘more of the same’ in adapting to climate change is enough, versus when an entirely different approach and way of thinking (i.e. transformational change) will be needed. Water, energy, carbon and nutrient cycling in the Critical Zone (CZ; groundwatersoil-plant-atmosphere system) determine key Societal resources. These cycles are intimately linked and thereby provide management opportunities for mitigating against, and adapting to, extreme events and environmental change. CZ processes are increasingly incorporated into land-surface models (LSMs, crucial components in global climate models, GCMs), providing a means of investigating these CZ interactions, and management decisions, in a changing climate. Programmes such as ESA’s Climate Change Initiative (CCI) have collated highquality historical Earth Observation (EO) datasets, while recent EO missions (SMOS, GRACE) have enabled remote observation of sub-surface processes. In addition, novel in-situ monitoring techniques, often embedded in networks, also contribute to unprecedented model-monitoring co-development opportunities. Yet, current efforts to employ EO/in-situ data in improved CZ understanding are generally disparate and lack shared strategic efforts between researchers, endusers and stakeholders. The aim of the proposed programme is for CZ researchers, in partnership with practitioners, to jointly develop a robust framework to combine high-resolution near-continuous times series data from various EO systems and sensor networks with state-of-the-art mechanistic models to work towards better future-prediction of CZ processes, above-and below-ground. Such data-model fusion systems will bring about a step change in the understanding, and ultimately management, of the CZ. Only a concerted fresh effort will allow us to take optimal advantage of recent and upcoming EO opportunities, including lightweight sensors aboard Unmanned Airborne Vehicles (UAVs) and space missions. EPSRC has just funded a substantial five year research project, MAGIC, under the Future Cities Grand Challenge programme. The project will develop and apply a high fidelity air quality (pollutants and temperature) prediction method that links the indoor and outdoor environments, and is capable of providing local fine scale resolution output in space and time whilst operating on a domain that might encompass a whole city. The proposed NERC work will link with this very novel research to maximize the benefit to the NERC community, in particular NCAS and the Met. Office. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson is credited with inventing the cloud chamber to demonstrate the existence of energetic ionizing radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere. He also predicted energetic discharge processes above thunderclouds almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed such phenomena which are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma ray flashes and terrestrial electron flashes. The existence of energetic charged particles in the Earth's atmosphere clearly warrants a quantification of their importance, because society increasingly relies on sensitive automated technological systems operating in the Earth’s atmosphere, e.g., from unmanned aerial vehicles to operational satellites for communications. One of the grand challenges of our time is to ensure that technological systems operate securely, in particular for safety critical applications. The basis for such an assessment is a coordinated interdisciplinary effort towards a broader understanding of the causes and consequences of energetic charged particles in the Earth’s atmosphere. For example, have energetic charged particles an impact on technological systems or are energetic charged particles in part caused by anthropogenic activity? It is currently not possible to answer these big science questions without speculation. The UK Government's Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) process requires a strong evidence base on which to base its assessment. While groundbreaking in their own way, neither the first nor second CCRAs involved extensive, in-depth vulnerability assessment for the UK Accurate satellite orbit prediction in a crowded environment –Whole Atmosphere Models and Space Weather resilience new academic research – they either involved bespoke but limited consultancy research, or assessments of existing literature. Meanwhile, the scientific understanding and capability of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability has advanced substantially in recent years. However, these are largely focused in individual fields of study, so literature assessments are therefore often internally inconsistent. For the 3rd CCRA to be based on the most authoritative and robust science, there is both a need and an opportunity to carry out a substantial programme of climate impacts assessments undertaken in a common framework allowing integration and internal consistency. New UK climate projections will also become available in the coming years, so the time is right to plan to make the most of these. It is therefore proposed that NERC establish a strategic programme area on climate change impacts and adaptation in the UK in order to make good use of new UK climate projections to provide authoritative advice on impacts in time for CCRA3. Low Earth Orbits (LEO) are defined as orbits below 2,000km altitude. Earth Observation studies benefit from orbits as low as 350km, owing to their larger footprint on the Earth. LEO satellites are a valuable resource in many areas of research and environmental monitoring that are important to NERC. Maintaining their orbits and communications requires precise orbit determination, which depends on high quality atmospheric modelling. The number of satellites launched each year has grown phenomenally over the last decade. In parallel the amount of space debris is so great that the increase of debris exceeds the losses. However, existing commercial satellite drag models have barely changed in terms of their physics content since the 1980s. Their focus has been on increasing computational speed and ease of use; but a reassessment is now required as the LEO region has become dangerously cluttered. Furthermore, a predictive capability is imperative, with respect to the influence of Space Weather. The region above 90km altitude is known as the thermosphere, and it is highly susceptible to Space Weather. In addition to diurnal temperature changes of hundreds of Kelvin; electrical currents course through the ionosphere and generate powerful and localized heating in the thermosphere - creating a difficult, tempestuous, medium to navigate. The idea is to use techniques from the meteorological community of data assimilation and ensemble modelling to drive physics-based global circulation models. Such models are too slow (hours) for satellite orbit determination (require tens of seconds), but instead will be used to provide weighted probability orbit scenarios in a similar way to weather forecasts.