Download monitoring programs - NSW Coastal Conference

Ecosystem Based
Modeling for Sustainable
Regional Development
of the Marine and
Estuarine Resources in
Coastal NSW
Philip Gibbs
Karen Astles
The Program & Linkages
• DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella
program’
• Comprehensive Coastal Assessment
• Enhanced decision support tools for NRM
action plans (phase 2)
• Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project)
• Initial project in Clarence Estuary
• CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth
from Oceans’ theme
Objectives
• Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use
management of coastal environments
• Develop and apply models of the ecosystem
and human activities
• Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring
programs’
Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling
Program Outline
Management
Objectives
Building virtual
ecosystem
(Operating
model)
Management
strategy/
scenarios
Atlantis
Biogeochemical
model
Policy
formation
Management
responses
Presentation
of outputs to
decision
makers
Data
Monitoring/
adaptive
management
impacts
Human activities
Ecosystem
Modelling
&
Monitoring
Management
Interface Between
Stakeholders
Management
Science
Climate Change
• National Adaptation Framework
• Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
•
•
•
•
Increasing Temperature
Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO
Sea level rise
Increasing ocean acidity
Likely Impacts
• Ocean current changes
• Storm surges
• Freshwater flow to estuaries
•
•
•
•
Habitat change
Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates
Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests
Socio economic effects
Tools
• Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled
physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’
– Physical box model in 3 dimensions
– Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of
functional groups (physical, O2 CO2, living, detritus)
– Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary
producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins)
– Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption,
excretion, predation, habitat dependency
• Computational limit
“What if” Scenarios
• Timeframe 1950 to 2030
• Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear,
zoning, closures, by-catch
• Climate change
• Land-use
• Increasing population and urbanisation
• Socio economic change
The Future
• Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore
component
• Explicit representation of Marine Parks
• Second estuary with a focus on urban rather
than agricultural inputs
• Coupling of estuary and shelf models
• Documentation of the “what if” outputs
Is Ecosystem Modelling
Possible?
Plants and Animals
Geophysical
environment
Politics
People
(social)
Economics
Thank You