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ISAP2013@Pacifico Yokohama Session: Adapting to Climate Change: Experience and Challenges for Asia Projected Climate Change Impacts in Asia and Japan in Asia and Japan Kiyoshi Takahashi Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Research gaps and hot topics of impact research • Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy • Projections of impacts considering future P j ti fi t id i f t socio‐economic development p • Evaluation of adaptation options • Projections of impacts of extreme events • Communication of uncertainties in impact C i ti f t i ti i i t projections • Economics of adaptation • Detection and attribution of observed impacts Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation p or related matters in Japan p Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8” • – Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5” • – – Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016) Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation • – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries • – Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program) • – – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects some other projects →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016) Research gaps and hot topics of impact research • Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy • Projections of impacts considering future P j ti fi t id i f t socio‐economic development p • Evaluation of adaptation options • Projections of impacts of extreme events • Communication of uncertainties in impact C i ti f t i ti i i t projections • Economics of adaptation • Detection and attribution of observed impacts Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation p or related matters in Japan p Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8” • Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government – Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5” • Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016) – – Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation • Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation – Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries • Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs – Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program) • Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects some other projects →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016) – – S-4: Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on sensitive sectors in Japan (FY2005-2009; A predecessor of “S-8” project) Risk Map p Ad Adaptation t ti Improvement of Impact Projection measures Without adaptation measures Water Human resources health With adaptation measures Agriculture g Forests Coasts Common scenario Economic assessment Population Development of monetary assessment basic unit 1100 15 900 10 700 5 500 0 300 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 GHG concentrations 20 Temperature changes 5.0 0 -5 4.0 -10 3.0 -15 15 2.0 -20 1.0 -25 0.0 -30 Impacts 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Integrated assessment tool GHG emissions Proposal of economic assessment method scenario 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 Climate scenario 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Development of Impact Functions Comprehensive projections Sectoral risk maps reported in S-4 project http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/seika.html g j 7 1年に熱ストレスで死亡する確率 (人口1000万人あたりの死亡数で示したもの) 0 1 10 100 500 S-4 project: Impacts on Forest: Distribution of suitable habitats for beech ((Fagus g crenata)) forests Beech forests Beech forests Nationwide decrease of suitable habitats • 2031‐2050: 35‐56% • 2081‐2100: 69‐93% Vulnerable area: western Japan, the Pacific side of Honshu 8 S-4 project: Synthesis of sector analyses of climate change impacts (Radar charts) Affected Area due to StormS Surge Flooding Fl di ( JJapan's ' three major bays) Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Western Japan) Flood Area 1.0 Sl Slope C Collapse ll 0.5 Sandy Beach Loss 0.0 Affected Population due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Japan's three major bays) 450s Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Japan's three major bays) Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Western apa ) Japan) BaU Flood Area 1.0 Sandy Beach Loss 0.0 Heat Stress Mortality Risk Rice Yield Loss of Suitable Habitats for F. crenata Forests Risk of Pine Wilt 2020s 洪水氾濫面積 高潮浸水面積 1 .0 土砂災害リスク 0 .5 砂浜喪失面積 熱ストレス 0 .0 2030s 2040s 2050s 2070s 2080s 2090s 高潮浸水面積 (三大湾) Slope Collapse 高潮浸水被害 (西日本) 人口(三大湾) 高潮浸水被害 死亡リスク コメ収量 ブナ適域喪失 2060s 人口(西日本) マツ枯れ危険域 Sandy Beach Loss 0.0 Heat Stress Mortality Risk Affected Population due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western Japan) 9 550s 0.5 Affected Population due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western Japan) Loss of Suitable Habitats for F. crenata Forests 0.5 Affected Population due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Japan's three major bays) Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Western Japan) Rice Yield Risk of Pine Wilt Sl Slope C Collapse ll Affected Population due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Japan's three major bays) Heat Stress Mortality Risk Affected Population due to Storm-Surge Storm Surge Flooding ( Western Japan) Flood Area 1.0 Affected Area due to StormS Surge Flooding Fl di ( JJapan's ' three major bays) Rice Yield Loss of Suitable Habitats for F. crenata Forests Risk of Pine Wilt Framework of S-8 Project (FY2010-2014) Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government Socio‐Economic Scenarios Climate Scenarios 【Theme 1】 Research on highly reliable quantitative assessment of climate change impacts throughout Japan Bio. Agri Disaster Health Simp plified assessment hod meth Regionaal assessm ment method d Water Climate Scenario downscaler Economic assessment Integrated assessment model Feedback from local government 【Theme 2】 Research on impact assessment and comprehensive adaptation policies d i li i at the local government level Feedback from developing country 【Theme 3】 Research on indexes of vulnerability and adaptation effects adaptation effects in the Asia‐Pacific Region Local government consortium Transmission of research results to domestic and international policymaking Various impact and adaptation studies in th A i P ifi the Asia‐Pacific region i Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation p or related matters in Japan p Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8” • – Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5” • – – Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016) Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation • – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries • – Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program) • – – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects some other projects →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016) • • • • Develop advanced data downscaling method Develop data assimilation technology Develop simulation technology for climate change adaptation http://www.mext‐isacc.jp/eng/ Water City Agriculture/Fishery Development and Application of Comprehensive Downscaling Methods for Hokkaido An innovative method of forecasting ocean circulation and fishery-resource variabilities linked to climate change for operational use Advanced downscaling methods for adaptations to future snow cover change in the Sea of Japan side areas under the global warming Development of decision support system for optimal agricultural producton under global environment changes Development of Decision Making System for Water Resource Policy under Climate Change in Shikoku Area A Water Resources Management System Enhancing Adaptability to Climate Development of Seamless Chemical AssimiLation System and its Application for Atmospheric Environmental Materials Statistical downscaling of alternative climate change scenarios on the river and coastal basin managements for environmental policy-making of Kochi Prefecture (cited from the URL above and translated) Advanced downscaling of the local easterly cold wind "Yamase" and the winter monsoon in the Tohoku region Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in water hazard assessed using regional climate scenarios in the Tokyo region Development of a sophisticated downscaling model using feedback parameterizations and its applications for adaptations to urban heat islands, extremely hot days, and heavy rain falls. Green Innovation for Urban-Seaside Integrated Area Research gaps and hot topics of impact research • Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy • Projections of impacts considering future P j ti fi t id i f t socio‐economic development p • Evaluation of adaptation options • Projections of impacts of extreme events • Communication of uncertainties in impact C i ti f t i ti i i t projections • Economics of adaptation • Detection and attribution of observed impacts Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation p or related matters in Japan p Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8” • – Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5” • – – Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016) Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation • – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries • – Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program) • – – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects some other projects →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016) Scheme of the S-5 project (2007-2011) g g scenarios to increase Integrated research on climate change public awareness and contribute to the policy process (S-5 project) U nc ert ana ainty lysi s Projection of climate change with GCM Development p of probabilistic climate scenario RCM Downscaling Reliability assessment of GCM R es com earch o mu nica n tion Im ass pact ess me nt Probabilistic climate change scenario Indexes of extreme event Water resource Ocean Cryosphere SLR Fishery Needs on scientific knowledge 「Vision of future climate」 Communication (How to deliver scientific knowledge to citizens) Crop Food Needs of company Needs of citizen Policymakers・Citizens・Companies [S-5] Various uncertainties in impact projection U Uncertainty t i t iin GHG / socio-economic i i scenario i Climate pprojection j Natural variability Impact projection j ti I Impact t projection Impact model uncertainty Climate model uncertainty GHG emission uncertainty Uncertainty in methods for developing climate scenarios Climate scenario uncertainty Socio -economic scenario uncertainty [S-5] Climate scenarios based on multi-GCMs CMIP3 data http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php In order to contribute to IPCC-AR4, IPCC-AR4 many research teams in the world conducted climate projections based on p The results of the common GHGs emission assumptions. simulations were collected in PCMDI (US) and distributed publicly through the Internet. Example of impact assessment considering productivity assessments uncertainty of climate projection Crop using plural GCM projections evaluated in IPCC-AR4 Impact on rice productivity Masutomi Y. et al. (2009) Agric.Ecosyst.Environ.,131,281-291 SRES-A2 SRES A2 SRES-A1B SRES A1B SRES-B1 SRES B1 80-100 80-100 80-100 60-80 60-80 60-80 40-60 40-60 40-60 20-40 20-40 20-40 1-20 1-20 1-20 0-1 0-1 0-1 生産量変化率[%] 生産量変化率[%] 20∼25 15∼20 10∼15 0∼5 5∼10 -5∼0 -10∼-5 -15∼ ∼-10 -20∼ ∼-15 20 0∼25 15 5∼20 10 0∼15 0∼5 5∼10 5 -5∼0 - -10 0∼-5 -15∼ ∼-10 0 -20∼ ∼-15 0.1 0 -25∼ ∼-20 0.1 0 20 0∼25 0.1 15 5∼20 0.2 10 0∼15 0.2 0∼5 0.3 5∼10 5 0.3 0.2 -5∼0 - 0.4 -10 0∼-5 0.4 0.3 -15∼ ∼-10 0.5 -20∼ ∼-15 0.5 0.4 -25∼ ∼-20 0.5 -25∼ ∼-20 Probability of crop productivity decrease [%] (with CO2 fertilization;2080s-1990s) 生産量変化率[%] PDFs of estimated productivity change (Asia;with CO2 fertilization; 2080s-1990s) Research gaps and hot topics of impact research • Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy • Projections of impacts considering future P j ti fi t id i f t socio‐economic development p • Evaluation of adaptation options • Projections of impacts of extreme events • Communication of uncertainties in impact C i ti f t i ti i i t projections • Economics of adaptation • Detection and attribution of observed impacts Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation p or related matters in Japan p Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8” • – Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5” • – – Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016) Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation • – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries • – Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program) • – – Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects some other projects →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016) Innovative program of climate change projection p j for the 21st century y http://www jamstec go jp/kakushin21/en http://www.jamstec.go.jp/kakushin21/en (cited from a brochure of the program) Example of KAKUSHIN’s output on climate change impacts Change ratio of extreme flood discharge (y (yearly maximum daily discharge, 50‐year return period). y y g , y p ) Th area off river The i basins b i are equall to t or larger l than th 3000000Km 3000000K 2. Top: Ratio of near future simulations (2015-2039) to present-day simulations (1979-2004). Bottom: Ration of the end of 21st century simulations (2075-2099) to the present-day simulations (1979-2004). (cited from a brochure of the program) Collaborations between research projects Climate projection (funded by MEXT) ・ 100km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2100) ・ 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA Kyosei ((2002-2006)) Kakushin ・ [Long-term] 280km Earth System Model by FRCGC (-2300) ・ [Near-term] [N t ] 50km 50k AO AO-GCM GCM bby CCSR/NIES/FRCGC ((-2030) 2030) ・ [Extreme event] 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA ・ Probabilistic climate scenarios ・ Long-term scenarios Sousei Task Group on Climate Scenario U ili i Utilization ・ Co-ordination of data exchange ・ Share of know-how on climate scenario i utilization tili ti Impact assessment (funded by MOE) S-5 ・ Spatial downscaling of climate scenarios (with RCM / SD) ・ Downscaling of socio-economic socio economic scenarios (global) ・ Sectoral impact assessment at global scale ・ Risk communication with public citizen and business S-10 S-4 ・Analyses of sectoral impacts in Japan and Asia S-8 AR4 ・ Risk management strategies ・Sectoral impacts and adaptation strategies in Japan ・Adaptation policy of Local Governments AR5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Research gaps and hot topics of impact research • Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy • Projections of impacts considering future P j ti fi t id i f t socio‐economic development p • Evaluation of adaptation options • Projections of impacts of extreme events • Communication of uncertainties in impact C i ti f t i ti i i t projections • Economics of adaptation • Detection and attribution of observed impacts Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010) East Asia and Pacific E Europe and dC Central t lA Asia i Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Sahara Africa Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010) NCAR(降水が増 える気候シナリオ) 単位:10億米ドル/年 UNFCCC(200 7)の推計値 インフラ 沿岸域 水供給・洪水防護 農林水産 人間健康 極端現象 総計 CSIRO(降水が減る 気候シナリオ) Toward the improvement of impact analyses in Asia -Enhancement Enhancement of collaboration - • Data – Climate scenarios, especially downscaled ones – Socio Socio‐economic economic scenarios both top scenarios both top‐down down (downscaled) (downscaled) scenarios and bottom‐up scenarios – Public archive system for storing and sharing the data? Public archive system for storing and sharing the data? • Methods – Collaborative researches for developing and sharing tools and methods for impact analyses • Adaptation experiences – Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones – Accumulation of cases (good and bad practices)