Download Projected Climate Change Impacts in Asia and Japan

ISAP2013@Pacifico Yokohama
Session: Adapting to Climate Change:
Experience and Challenges for Asia
Projected Climate Change Impacts
in Asia and Japan
in Asia and Japan
Kiyoshi Takahashi
Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
• Projections of impacts considering future P j ti
fi
t
id i f t
socio‐economic development
p
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
• Communication of uncertainties in impact C
i ti
f
t i ti i i
t
projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on
adaptation
p
or related matters in Japan
p
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”
•
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”
•
–
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process
→New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
•
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development
of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address
global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
•
–
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative
program of climate change projection for the 21st century
(KAKUSHIN‐Program)
•
–
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects
some
other projects
→New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
• Projections of impacts considering future P j ti
fi
t
id i f t
socio‐economic development
p
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
• Communication of uncertainties in impact C
i ti
f
t i ti i i
t
projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on
adaptation
p
or related matters in Japan
p
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”
•
Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
–
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”
•
Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process
→New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
–
–
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
•
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
–
Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development
of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address
global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
•
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
–
Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative
program of climate change projection for the 21st century
(KAKUSHIN‐Program)
•
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects
some
other projects
→New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
–
–
S-4: Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on sensitive sectors in Japan
(FY2005-2009; A predecessor of “S-8” project)
Risk Map
p
Ad
Adaptation
t ti
Improvement of Impact
Projection
measures
Without adaptation measures
Water
Human
resources
health
With adaptation measures
Agriculture
g
Forests
Coasts
Common scenario
Economic assessment
Population
Development of monetary
assessment basic unit
1100
15
900
10
700
5
500
0
300
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
GHG concentrations
20
Temperature changes
5.0
0
-5
4.0
-10
3.0
-15
15
2.0
-20
1.0
-25
0.0
-30
Impacts
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Integrated
assessment tool
GHG emissions
Proposal of economic
assessment method
scenario
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
Climate
scenario
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Development of Impact
Functions
Comprehensive
projections
Sectoral risk maps reported in S-4 project
http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/seika.html
g j
7
１年に熱ストレスで死亡する確率
（人口1000万人あたりの死亡数で示したもの）
0
1
10 100 500
S-4 project: Impacts on Forest:
Distribution of suitable habitats for beech ((Fagus
g crenata)) forests

Beech forests
Beech forests

Nationwide decrease of suitable habitats • 2031‐2050: 35‐56%
• 2081‐2100: 69‐93%
Vulnerable area: western Japan, the Pacific side of Honshu

8
S-4 project: Synthesis of sector analyses of climate
change impacts (Radar charts)
Affected Area due to StormS
Surge
Flooding
Fl di ( JJapan's
'
three major bays)
Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Western
Japan)
Flood Area
1.0
Sl
Slope
C
Collapse
ll
0.5
Sandy Beach Loss
0.0
Affected Population due to
Storm-Surge Flooding (
Japan's three major bays)
450s
Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Japan's
three major bays)
Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Western
apa )
Japan)
BaU
Flood Area
1.0
Sandy Beach Loss
0.0
Heat Stress
Mortality Risk
Rice Yield
Loss of Suitable Habitats for
F. crenata Forests
Risk of Pine Wilt
2020s
洪水氾濫面積
高潮浸水面積
1 .0
土砂災害リスク
0 .5
砂浜喪失面積
熱ストレス 0 .0
2030s
2040s
2050s
2070s
2080s
2090s
高潮浸水面積
（三大湾）
Slope Collapse
高潮浸水被害
（西日本）
人口（三大湾）
高潮浸水被害
死亡リスク
コメ収量
ブナ適域喪失
2060s
人口（西日本）
マツ枯れ危険域
Sandy Beach Loss
0.0
Heat Stress
Mortality Risk
Affected Population due to
Storm-Surge Flooding
( Western Japan)
9
550s
0.5
Affected Population due to
Storm-Surge Flooding
( Western Japan)
Loss of Suitable Habitats for
F. crenata Forests
0.5
Affected Population due to
Storm-Surge Flooding (
Japan's three major bays)
Affected Area due to StormSurge Flooding ( Western
Japan)
Rice Yield
Risk of Pine Wilt
Sl
Slope
C
Collapse
ll
Affected Population due to
Storm-Surge Flooding (
Japan's three major bays)
Heat Stress
Mortality Risk
Affected Population due to
Storm-Surge
Storm
Surge Flooding
( Western Japan)
Flood Area
1.0
Affected Area due to StormS
Surge
Flooding
Fl di ( JJapan's
'
three major bays)
Rice Yield
Loss of Suitable Habitats for
F. crenata Forests
Risk of Pine Wilt
Framework of S-8 Project (FY2010-2014)
Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation
strategy on whole Japan and local government
Socio‐Economic Scenarios
Climate Scenarios
【Theme 1】 Research on highly reliable quantitative assessment of climate change impacts throughout Japan
Bio.
Agri
Disaster
Health
Simp
plified assessment hod
meth
Regionaal assessm
ment method
d
Water
Climate Scenario downscaler
Economic assessment
Integrated assessment model
Feedback from local government
【Theme 2】
Research on impact assessment and comprehensive adaptation policies
d
i
li i
at the local government level
Feedback from developing country
【Theme 3】
Research on indexes of vulnerability and adaptation effects
adaptation effects in the Asia‐Pacific Region
Local government consortium
Transmission of research results to domestic and international policymaking
Various impact and adaptation studies in th A i P ifi
the Asia‐Pacific region
i
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on
adaptation
p
or related matters in Japan
p
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”
•
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”
•
–
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process
→New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
•
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development
of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address
global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
•
–
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative
program of climate change projection for the 21st century
(KAKUSHIN‐Program)
•
–
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects
some
other projects
→New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
•
•
•
•
Develop advanced data downscaling method
Develop data assimilation technology
Develop simulation technology for climate change adaptation
http://www.mext‐isacc.jp/eng/
Water
City
Agriculture/Fishery
Development and Application of
Comprehensive Downscaling
Methods for Hokkaido
An innovative method of forecasting
ocean circulation and fishery-resource
variabilities linked to climate change for
operational use
Advanced downscaling methods for adaptations to future snow cover change in
the Sea of Japan side areas under the global warming
Development of decision support system for optimal agricultural
producton under global environment changes
Development of Decision Making
System for Water Resource Policy
under Climate Change in Shikoku Area
A Water Resources Management System
Enhancing Adaptability to Climate
Development of Seamless Chemical AssimiLation
System and its Application for Atmospheric
Environmental Materials
Statistical downscaling of alternative
climate change scenarios on the river
and coastal basin managements for
environmental policy-making of Kochi
Prefecture
(cited from the URL above and translated)
Advanced downscaling of the local
easterly cold wind "Yamase" and the
winter monsoon in the Tohoku region
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in
water hazard assessed using regional climate
scenarios in the Tokyo region
Development of a sophisticated downscaling
model using feedback parameterizations and
its applications for adaptations to urban heat
islands, extremely hot days, and heavy rain
falls.
Green Innovation for Urban-Seaside Integrated
Area
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
• Projections of impacts considering future P j ti
fi
t
id i f t
socio‐economic development
p
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
• Communication of uncertainties in impact C
i ti
f
t i ti i i
t
projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on
adaptation
p
or related matters in Japan
p
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”
•
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”
•
–
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process
→New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
•
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development
of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address
global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
•
–
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative
program of climate change projection for the 21st century
(KAKUSHIN‐Program)
•
–
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects
some
other projects
→New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
Scheme of the S-5 project (2007-2011)
g
g scenarios to increase
Integrated
research on climate change
public awareness and contribute to the policy process (S-5 project)
U nc
ert
ana ainty
lysi
s
Projection of climate change
with GCM
Development
p
of
probabilistic
climate scenario
RCM
Downscaling
Reliability
assessment of GCM
R es
com earch
o
mu
nica n
tion
Im
ass pact
ess
me
nt
Probabilistic climate change scenario
Indexes of
extreme event
Water
resource
Ocean Cryosphere
SLR
Fishery
Needs on
scientific knowledge
「Vision of future climate」
Communication
(How to deliver scientific
knowledge to citizens)
Crop
Food
Needs of company
Needs of citizen
Policymakers・Citizens・Companies
[S-5] Various uncertainties in impact projection
U
Uncertainty
t i t iin GHG / socio-economic
i
i scenario
i
Climate pprojection
j
Natural
variability
Impact
projection
j ti
I
Impact
t
projection
Impact
model
uncertainty
Climate
model
uncertainty
GHG
emission
uncertainty
Uncertainty in methods
for developing
climate scenarios
Climate
scenario
uncertainty
Socio
-economic
scenario
uncertainty
[S-5] Climate scenarios based on multi-GCMs
CMIP3 data
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php
In order to contribute to IPCC-AR4,
IPCC-AR4 many research teams
in the world conducted climate projections based on
p
The results of the
common GHGs emission assumptions.
simulations were collected in PCMDI (US) and distributed
publicly through the Internet.
Example of impact assessment considering
productivity assessments
uncertainty of climate projection Crop
using plural GCM projections
evaluated in IPCC-AR4
Impact on rice productivity
Masutomi Y. et al. (2009) Agric.Ecosyst.Environ.,131,281-291
SRES-A2
SRES
A2
SRES-A1B
SRES
A1B
SRES-B1
SRES
B1
80-100
80-100
80-100
60-80
60-80
60-80
40-60
40-60
40-60
20-40
20-40
20-40
1-20
1-20
1-20
0-1
0-1
0-1
生産量変化率[%]
生産量変化率[%]
20∼25
15∼20
10∼15
0∼5
5∼10
-5∼0
-10∼-5
-15∼
∼-10
-20∼
∼-15
20
0∼25
15
5∼20
10
0∼15
0∼5
5∼10
5
-5∼0
-
-10
0∼-5
-15∼
∼-10
0
-20∼
∼-15
0.1
0
-25∼
∼-20
0.1
0
20
0∼25
0.1
15
5∼20
0.2
10
0∼15
0.2
0∼5
0.3
5∼10
5
0.3
0.2
-5∼0
-
0.4
-10
0∼-5
0.4
0.3
-15∼
∼-10
0.5
-20∼
∼-15
0.5
0.4
-25∼
∼-20
0.5
-25∼
∼-20
Probability of crop productivity decrease [%] (with CO2 fertilization；２０８０s-１９９０s)
生産量変化率[%]
PDFs of estimated productivity change (Asia；with CO2 fertilization； ２０８０s-１９９０s)
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
• Projections of impacts considering future P j ti
fi
t
id i f t
socio‐economic development
p
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
• Communication of uncertainties in impact C
i ti
f
t i ti i i
t
projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on
adaptation
p
or related matters in Japan
p
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”
•
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”
•
–
–
Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process
→New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
•
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address Development
of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address
global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
•
–
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century Innovative
program of climate change projection for the 21st century
(KAKUSHIN‐Program)
•
–
–
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projects
some
other projects
→New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
Innovative program of climate change
projection
p
j
for the 21st century
y
http://www jamstec go jp/kakushin21/en
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/kakushin21/en
(cited from a brochure of the program)
Example of KAKUSHIN’s output on climate change impacts Change ratio of extreme flood discharge (y
(yearly maximum daily discharge, 50‐year return period).
y
y
g ,
y
p
)
Th area off river
The
i
basins
b i are equall to
t or larger
l
than
th 3000000Km
3000000K 2.
Top: Ratio of near future simulations (2015-2039) to present-day simulations (1979-2004).
Bottom: Ration of the end of 21st century simulations (2075-2099) to the present-day simulations (1979-2004).
(cited from a brochure of the program)
Collaborations between research projects
Climate projection (funded by MEXT)
・ 100km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2100)
・ 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA
Kyosei
((2002-2006))
Kakushin
・ [Long-term] 280km Earth System Model by FRCGC (-2300)
・ [Near-term]
[N
t
] 50km
50k AO
AO-GCM
GCM bby CCSR/NIES/FRCGC ((-2030)
2030)
・ [Extreme event] 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA
・ Probabilistic climate scenarios
・ Long-term scenarios
Sousei
Task Group on
Climate Scenario
U ili i
Utilization
・ Co-ordination of data exchange
・ Share of know-how on climate
scenario
i utilization
tili ti
Impact assessment (funded by MOE)
S-5
・ Spatial downscaling of climate scenarios (with RCM / SD)
・ Downscaling of socio-economic
socio economic scenarios (global)
・ Sectoral impact assessment at global scale
・ Risk communication with public citizen and business
S-10
S-4
・Analyses of sectoral impacts in Japan and Asia
S-8
AR4
・ Risk management strategies
・Sectoral impacts and adaptation strategies in Japan
・Adaptation policy of Local Governments
AR5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
• Projections of impacts considering future P j ti
fi
t
id i f t
socio‐economic development
p
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
• Communication of uncertainties in impact C
i ti
f
t i ti i i
t
projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010)
East Asia and Pacific
E
Europe
and
dC
Central
t lA
Asia
i
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Sahara Africa
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010)
NCAR（降水が増
える気候シナリオ）
単位：10億米ドル／年
UNFCCC(200
7)の推計値
インフラ
沿岸域
水供給・洪水防護
農林水産
人間健康
極端現象
総計
CSIRO（降水が減る
気候シナリオ）
Toward the improvement of impact analyses in Asia
-Enhancement
Enhancement of collaboration -
• Data
– Climate scenarios, especially downscaled ones
– Socio
Socio‐economic
economic scenarios both top
scenarios both top‐down
down (downscaled) (downscaled)
scenarios and bottom‐up scenarios
– Public archive system for storing and sharing the data?
Public archive system for storing and sharing the data?
• Methods
– Collaborative researches for developing and sharing tools and methods for impact analyses
• Adaptation experiences
– Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones
Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones
– Accumulation of cases (good and bad practices)