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The New York Times 18th May 2050 Monday, May 18, 2050 Last Update: 8:00 AM ET Times are changing The sea level is still rising! The Earth is sweating! Extinct Species today! The weather 1 The New York Times 18th May 2050 land is located. That would imply a major reorganisation of the country's economy." Americas on alert for sea level rise Mr Vergara and other experts are also concerned about the effect on the large coastal wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico. Climate change experts in North and South America are increasingly worried by the potentially devastating implications of higher estimates for possible sea level rises. "These new data on sea level rises are alarming," says Arnoldo Matus Kramer, a researcher on climate change adaptation at Oxford University. The Americas have until now been seen as less vulnerable than other parts of the world like low-lying Pacific islands, Vietnam or Bangladesh. But the increase in the ranges for anticipated sea level rises presented at a meeting of scientists in Copenhagen in March has alarmed observers in the region. Rising sea levels coupled with severe storms could be devastating Parts of the Caribbean, Mexico and Ecuador are seen as most at risk. New York City and southern parts of Florida are also thought to be particularly vulnerable. "When combined with the exponential growth of urbanisation and tourism along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean, it is extremely worrying." The 2050 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change) report suggested that sea levels would rise by between 19cm (7.5 inches) and 59cm by the end of this century. But several scientists at the Copenhagen meeting spoke of a rise of a metre or more, even if the world's greenhouse gas emissions were kept at a low level. A January 2050 study by UN-Habitat on the world's cities pointed out that in most Caribbean island states, 50% of the population lives within 2km (1.2 miles) of the coast. They would be directly affected by sea level rise and other climate impacts. Melting of the polar ice sheets is one of the main drivers behind the new estimates. The Bahamas, the Guyanas, Belize and Jamaica have been pin-pointed by the World Bank as being particularly at risk from a one-metre rise. "A rise of one metre will irreversibly change the geography of coastal areas in Latin America," Walter Vergara, the World Bank's lead engineer on climate change in the region, told the BBC. The coastal plains around the city of Guayaquil in Ecuador, the country's main economic hub, are also known to be vulnerable to a combination of sea level rises, storms and sea surges. "For example, a one-metre rise would flood an area in coastal Guyana where 70% of the population and 40% of agricultural A recent study by researchers at Espol, a science institute in Guayaquil, suggested that even a half-metre sea level rise would 2 The New York Times 18th May 2050 put the storm drainage system in the southern part of the city under severe strain, possibly causing it to collapse. Fishing threatened Ecuador's lucrative fishing industry, which is a mainstay of the economy, would also be threatened. Communities dependent on fishing are vulnerable to sea level changes "A one-metre sea level rise would add another layer of threat to the shrimp and other fishing industries', says Espol's Pilar Cornejo, the author of a UN report on the issue. New research led by Dr Jianjun Yin at Florida State University suggests that whereas South American coastal cities are not at threat this century from an extra sea level rise caused by Amoc, New York City and the state of Florida are. According to a recent World Bank study of more than 80 developing countries, Ecuador features among the top 10 countries likely to be most affected by sea level rise when calculated as a percentage of its GDP. New York would see an additional rise of about 20cm (7.8in) above the global mean due to Amoc by the turn of the century, according to Dr Yin's research published this year in the journal, Nature Geoscience. Florida would experience less than 10cm (3.9in). Argentina, Mexico and Jamaica also appear in the top 10 when measured by the impact of a one-metre rise on agricultural lands. "A one-metre rise could be a disaster for parts of Florida, particularly in the southern part of the state," Dr Yin told the BBC. Scientists stress that uncertainties remain about future sea level rises, including the behaviour of the giant polar ice sheets, the time span over which rises will take place, and their interaction with existing coastal conditions. Another factor is the effect global warming will have on Amoc - the giant circulation of the Atlantic whereby warm sea water flows northwards in the upper ocean and cold sea water goes southwards in the deeper ocean. "Sea level rise superimposed on hurricane vulnerability makes for a very worrying situation." 3 The New York Times 18th May 2050 Mr Vergara is not alone in stressing that sea level rises are "climate committed", in the sense that because of existing and projected greenhouse gas emissions, they will continue long into the future. Melting glaciers start countdown to climate chaos "The level and direction of change will destabilise extensive coastal areas in Latin America. Once flooded, there is no way back," he says. The Greenland ice sheet is riddled with channels that could quicken ice loss and speed sea level rise, a new study has revealed. Many scientists stress that it is not too late to mitigate the possible effects. Unique video footage taken 100m inside the ice has revealed a complex subglacial network of interconnecting tunnels that carry water from the surface to deep inside the ice sheet. "We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to reduce coastal developments," Dr Yin says. Konrad Steffen, an ice expert at the University of Colorado, told a global warming conference in Copenhagen that the discovery could explain sudden and severe increases in ice movement seen during peak summer. Water channelled from the surface to the base of the ice sheet could speed up the way it slides across the bedrock. On a large scale, this could cause the ice sheet to break up much faster than expected. "There is an urgent need for Latin American leaders to take account of these new figures on sea level rises in designing new policies," says Arnoldo Matus Kramer. "They are not doing it at the moment." Steffen worked with experts from Nasa to design a special camera that his team dangled inside the Greenland ice in summer 2049. They sent it down a "moulin" — a hole at the surface that carries away fast-flowing streams of surface water produced from melted ice. "I have lots of graduate students working on this project, but we couldn't find any volunteers who were willing to go down there to take a look," he joked. Experts suspect such moulins carry melt water from the surface to the bedrock, but until now it had been impossible to track the flow to check where water went. Combined with images from a ground penetrating radar dragged across the ice surface, Steffen's results showed that the 4 The New York Times 18th May 2050 in the March 21 online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) that strong oceanic tides are the engines behind this warmingcooling cycle that may help determine future climates. This report is the first comprehensive study of the effects of tidal mixing on climate change spanning millennia. The current phase in the cycle suggests that a natural warming trend began a hundred years ago, picked up in the 1970s, and should continue over the next five centuries. moulin quickly widened beneath the surface. Several side channels carried water away to other parts of the ice sheet and fed the moulin from other holes on the surface. "The whole ice sheet is connected with these open channels," he said. THE EARTH IS SWEATING "We have discovered an 1,800-year tidal cycle that appears to match with recent climate change," said Charles Keeling, the study's first author. "If this is a correct mechanism for understanding climate change over millennia, then temperatures will rise both because of weaker tidal mixing and because of the greenhouse effect, which is on the increase as well." It's Getting Hotter Faster by Kate Melville Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, report evidence of pronounced changes in the earth's climate that can be tracked in cycles of ocean conditions over thousands of years. These cycles reveal that Earth is currently in a period in which a natural rise in global temperatures--combined with warming from the greenhouse effect--will push the planet through an era of rapid global warming. The researchers suggest that strong oceanic tides drive changes in climate due to their ability to increase vertical mixing in the ocean and thereby transport cold ocean water to the surface. The strong tides elicit cool conditions on the sea surface, which in turn lowers temperatures in air and over land, resulting in cooler climates around the planet, often accompanied by drought conditions. Weak tides lead to less cold water mixing and result in warmer periods on Earth. Charles Keeling and Timothy Whorf report 5 The New York Times Keeling and Whorf's 1,800-year cycle, which arises because of gradual changes in the astronomical alignments of the sun, moon, and earth, was proposed as an explanation for nearly periodic millennial changes in temperature seen in ice and deep-sea sedimentary core records. Previously (1997), they have reported on the effects of shorter cycles of tidal forcing on global temperature at periods near 18, 90, and 180 years. 18th May 2050 tenth century near the end of a period of weak tidal activity, but perished or left Greenland when tides strengthened near the beginning of the Little Ice Age in the 13th century. "One of the principle benefits of the tidal hypothesis is that researchers can compare the timing of specific historical events with predicted times of warming or cooling to see whether they coincide or not," said Whorf, a research associate in the Geosciences Research Division of Scripps. A maximum in tidal cooling near 1974 might have produced more cooling, but perhaps was masked by a simultaneous greenhouse warming, according to Keeling, a professor of oceanography at Scripps. "If we are correct, then the 1,800-year tidal cycle will be important in understanding future climates as well as events of the past." "If that is true, then it becomes pretty clear that if today's natural warming trend is combined with the greenhouse effect, then we'll soon see the effect of combined warming all over the world," said Keeling. In addition to climate change recognition, the research also represents a new mechanism for analyzing events in world history. The paper reports on the near coincidence of major tidal fluctuations with worldwide phenomena, including the Little Ice Age of 1400 A.D. to 1700 A.D., major dust layers in Minnesota lake sediments spaced about 1,800 years apart, a major drought in the Amazon Basin around 2200 B.C., and a 2000 B.C. drought that may have contributed to the collapse of Akkadia, a Mesopotamian civilization regarded as the world's first empire. The Vikings inhabited Greenland in temperate conditions in the Advertisement Why not enjoy a fabulous tropical sunset with the newly-planted palm trees in Antartica?? It`s only €2000.- for a 4-day trip. All inclusive tours start every Friday from Cape Town www.southpoletravel.com BOOK NOW!! 6 The New York Times 18th May 2050 Sharks appeared earlier on the surface of the Earth than trees Alligatiors can as well live up to the age of 80 Bees can be taught how to find the bomb Every living creature, the human also generate electricity Between the madusas we can find so little like a thimble and so big like 2 washing machine There are some type of the fish which can be change its sex Sharks fell the smell of blood from one kilometre Koalas are awake just 4 hour in one day Extinct Species today! Incredible but right Bees have 5 eyes Caterpillars have more muscles than humans Numerous birds have heavier feathers than their skeletons Kangaroos cannot jump backwards only forward One type of lizard from Madagascar has a third eyes on the top of its head Some species of termit can explode themselves Dalmatian dogs are born without spots Medusas can sting once they have died The most endangered species was in 2009, and these disappeared 1. Black Rhino 2. Giant Panda 3. Tiger 4. Beluga Sturgeon 5. Goldenseal 6. Alligator Snapping Turtle 7. Hawksbill Turtle 8. Big Leaf Mahogany 9. Green-Cheeked Parrot 10. Mako Shark 7 The New York Times 18th May 2050 horn in the middle of the forehead, which is black and very thick. THE BLACK RHINO AN ENDANGERED SPECIES Today, all five species of rhinos are perilously close to extinction. The rate of their decline is truly astounding: in the decade of the 1970s alone, half the world's rhino population disappeared. Today, less than 15 per cent of the 1970 population remains, an estimated 10,000 to 11,000 worldwide. The name "rhino" conjures up the image of a prehistoric beast, a huge creature with skin of armor. This image is not surprising, since these intelligent and affectionate creatures have inhabited the Earth for 60 million years. An extinct species of rhino that lived in Mongolia, (Baluchitherium grangeri), was the largest land mammal of all time. This hornless rhinoceros stood 18 feet (five and one-half meters) at the shoulder, was 27 feet (eight meters) long, and probably weighed 25 tons (23 metric tons), four times as much as today's African bull elephant. The Javan and Sumatran rhinos are near extinction. Indian rhinos may be coming back from the brink. Of the two African species, the white rhino has rebounded from near extinction. (Contrary to its name, the white rhino is not really white. Its name is a mistaken translation of the Dutch word "wijde," which means "wide" and refers to the rhino's broad, square lips.) This species probably died out because of climate change. The black rhino has not fared so well. As recently as 1970, an estimated 65,000 black rhinos could be found throughout subSaharan Africa. But in eastern Africa, 90 percent of them were killed in the 1970s. Now there are fewer than 2,500 left, in pockets in Zimbabwe, South Africa, Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania. The rhino may be the source of the belief in unicorns, legendary animals whose horn was said to be a panacea for all types of ailments. In 1298, the Venetian explorer Marco Polo described Sumatran rhinos as unicorns saying: There are wild elephants in the country, and numerous unicorns, which are very nearly as big. They have hair like that of a buffalo, feet like those of an elephant, and a 8 The New York Times 18th May 2050 These beautiful giant pandas are Pandas now live in a few very noted for their black and white select parts of China where the markings. Their legs, shoulders, bamboo, their favorite food, and ears and circular patches around evergreen trees are thick. Pandas their eyes are black; the remainder once roamed large areas in China, of the panda is white. but as the human population has increased, the area in which a panda escape can live has decreased. Pandas are predators by climbing trees, a skill very solitary animals, and do not at which they are very good. venture However, pandas may also choose to humans live. Pandas usually try to into the areas where swim away from predators. Why Are Pandas Endangered? Full-grown pandas typically weigh Pandas have become endangered between 200 and 300 pounds, and for two main reasons. First, the area can often reach lengths of 6 feet. in which they can safely live has The average lifespan of a panda in shrunk. Second, they are often the wild is unknown, as they are hunted for their pelts, which can go very secretive creatures. However, for thousands of dollars on the in captivity, pandas usually live to black market. be 20 years old. 9 The New York Times 18th May 2050 sustained rate of decline of 3% per year, temperatures are likely to rise to 1.7 °C above preindustrial levels by 2050 and to around 2 °C by 2100. This is because carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere will be around for many years to come and the climate takes some time to respond to these changes. Only an early and rapid decline in emissions gets anywhere close to the target of 50% reduction in emissions by 2050 put forward by the G8. Temperature rises Historical Background In 2008 the following scenarios were predicted: Dr Jason Lowe and other colleagues at the Met Office conducted a series of 'what if' climate projections, to give a better understanding of the temperature rises we could expect if action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is slow or delayed. In the first scenario, emissions continue to rise throughout the century. In the other scenarios, emission reductions have been imposed at various times and at various rates. In the most optimistic scenario, emissions start to decrease in 2010, and reductions quickly reach 3% per year. This contrasts sharply with current trends, where the world's overall emissions are increasing at 1% per year - faster than even the worst cases used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios. Contrast that with a world where no action is taken to curb global warming. Then, temperatures are likely to rise by 5.5 °C and could rise as high as 7 °C above preindustrial values by the end of the century. This would lead to significant risks of severe and irreversible impacts. What is very clear is that some increase in temperature is inevitable in the next century, and that the decisions and actions that the world takes now will have a profound impact on the climate later this century. Dr Lowe's two other scenarios are also significant. The consequences of a late decline in emissions are apparent by 2050. Delaying reduction of emissions until 2030, results in a further 0.5 °C of warming by 2050 compared with early, if Even if emissions start to decrease in the next two years and reach a rapid and 10 The New York Times slow, reduction from 2010. By the end of the century the differences are even greater - more than 1 °C. 18th May 2050 them have to be evacuated! These people emmigrated to Russia, North China and also in the poor country Mongolia. So the following problems of this moving of people are wide and fatal: The consequences of an early but slow decline in emissions of 1% per year, compared with a rapid decline, appear to be small in 2050. However, they increase to 0.8 °C by the end of the century. Overall, a delayed and slow decline in emissions would probably lead to nearly 2 °C more warming than an early and rapid decline in global emissions - a total temperature rise of 4 °C above preindustrial levels. Too many people are living in a small area already and the terms and conditions under which they are living are very bad. There is a shortage on every of goods especially food and clear and healthy drinking water. In underdeveloped countries several millions of people died and a new world war started because of the shortage of clean water and edible food. .Now the half of the worlds population is exterminated as a consequence of these wars which lasted from 2041 to 2046. The reality today The temperature increased about 6 °C. Much more than expected. In the year 2008 Dr. Jason Lowe estimated, that the temperature will increase around 1,8 °C in the year 2050. The emissions are still too high and the outcome of the high emissions are alarming. Popular tourist resorts like the Maldives dissapeared already in the 2020’s. Another fact is that the speed of the gulf stream slowed down and we expect a new Ice Age for Canada and Northern and Middle Europe within the next 20 years which will increase overpopulation in already crowded areas even more. Many countries are underwater since 2040 like the Netherlands, Bangladesh, the Metropole New York, South Britain and London and the overpopulated City of Shanghai. Bandaglesh, together with Shanghai has a high number of inhabitants, exactly over 100 million people. All of 11 The New York Times .This newspaper was produced by students of the COMENIUS project „Make a Difference – European Footprint on our World” during students’ meeting in Xantus Janos School, Budapest (Hungary) in May 2009 and in Urspringschule Schelklingen (Germany) in June 2009. The participants came from Hungary, Germany and Italy. This newspaper is the worst case scenario which might come true if people don’t change their attitude towards climate change. Urspringschule 17th June 2009 12 18th May 2050