Download NCWQ Environment Adviser`s Report, March 2017

NCWQ Environment Adviser’s Report, March 2017
Update on Climate Change: The debate on climate change has continued but unfortunately appears to have
become more ideological than scientific, perhaps fuelled by American and Australian politicians or aspiring
politicians. Lord Christopher Monckton (a well known climate sceptic)’s view that anthropogenic globalwarming is a myth is often cited in the popular press. His and similar views are supported by some
scientists. https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/24820-climate-scare-over-top-experts-expose-scam-at-freedom-confab
https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/22095-in-paris-scientists-debunk-un-climate-hysteria These views are just as
vigorously refuted by other scientists https://www.skepticalscience.com/Monckton_Myths_arg.htm; Monckton-vs-Scientists.pdf. Many
of the protagonists on both sides appear to be intransigent but the issues raised need serious consideration.
The popular press has made much of the so called hiatus in global warming data accusing America’s
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of manipulating the data to exaggerate global
warming and timing their publication to influence the historic Paris Agreement on climate change.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html The U.S. House of
Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology accepted this conclusion. https://science.house.gov/news/press-releases/formernoaa-scientist-confirms-colleagues-manipulated-climate-records However, NOAA results have been validated by
independent data from satellites, buoys and Argo floats
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-mail-sundays-astonishing-
evidence-global-temperature-rise o
The Conversation has published a series on the science behind climate change and concluded that human
greenhouse gas emissions are resulting in climate changes that cannot be explained by natural causes.
https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-real-an-open-letter-from-the-scientific-community-1808 These include articles by
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Karl Braganza, Manager of Climate Monitoring at the Bureau of Meteorology who explained how
monitoring the climate of Earth from instruments in space, in the deep ocean, in the atmosphere and
across the surface of both land and sea points to increasing greenhouse gases warming the climate
system. https://theconversation.com/the-greenhouse-effect-is-real-heres-why-1515
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James Risbey, Researcher, Marine and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO draws attention to climate
change becoming dangerous if the thresholds are exceeded e.g the melting and breakdown of polar
ice sheets.https://theconversation.com/speaking-science-to-climate-policy-1548
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. Mike Sandiford, Director of the Melbourne Energy Institute and Professor of Geology, looks at how
our geological impact compares to the natural energy and material fluxes that shape our planet. e.g.
human industrial emissions of sulfur dioxide and CO₂ compared to natural volcanic emissions.
https://theconversation.com/our-effect-on-the-earth-is-real-how-were-geo-engineering-the-planet-1544
However Dr Judith Curry, President of Climate Forecast Applications Network and former Chair of the
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology, concluded that while climate
models are useful tools for conducting scientific research to understand the climate system, the current
global climate models (GCMs) can not attribute the causes of 20th century warming or predict global or
regional climate change on timescales of decades to centuries, with any high level of confidence. Her
conclusions are based on
• substantial uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity,
• inability of GCMs to simulate the magnitude and phasing of natural internal
variability on decadal-to-century timescales,
• the use of 20th century observations in calibrating/tuning the GCMs, and
• the failure of climate models to provide a consistent explanation of the early
20th century warming and the mid-century cooling.
Thus she warns against using GCMs to justify political policies to alter world social, economic and energy
systems. Judith Curry, Climate Models for the Layman, 2017, The Global Warming Policy Foundation Briefing 24.
The 2015 edition of the State of the Climate report updates climate indicators such as greenhouse gases;
temperatures throughout the atmosphere, ocean, and land; cloud cover; sea level; ocean salinity; sea ice
extent; and snow cover show patterns, changes, and trends of the global climate system. Blunden, J. and D. S.
Arndt, Eds., 2016: State of the Climate in 2015. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (8), S1–S275, DOI:10.1175/2016BAMSStateoftheClimate.1
Highlights include

Global Temperature: Long-term warming and a strong El Niño contributed to the highest annual
combined temperature for ocean and land since reliable records began in the mid-to-late 1800s.
Average temperature departures for 2015 compared to the 1981-2010 averages showed Russia and
western North America especially warm with only a few areas on land, notably Greenland and north
eastern Canada, were cooler than average. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2015-state-climateglobal-temperature
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Global mean sea level rose approximately 7 cm above the 1993 average in 2015, making it the
highest observed since the satellite altimeter record began in 1993. Regional variations highlighted
the short-term influence of climate phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2015-state-climate-sea-level
Ocean heat storage has increased substantially since 1993, hitting a record high in 2015. The heat
content in the upper 700 m of the ocean rose more than the deeper ocean (0–2000m) relative to a
1993 baseline. Heat energy rises and falls every few years in response to natural patterns like El Niño
and La Niña, but those ups and downs are superimposed on a long-term increase.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2015-state-climate-ocean-heat-storage.
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Global average carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) was reported as 399.4 parts per million (ppm), a
new record high. At Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii where atmospheric carbon dioxide has been
recorded longer than anywhere else in the world, the atmospheric mole fraction has increased from
~315 ppm in 1958 to 400.8 ± 0.1 ppm in 2015.

Human emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production are largely considered
responsible for this increase. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2015-state-climate-carbon-dioxide.
Warm oceans and loss of sea ice are causing big changes in marine life. For example, loss of sea
ice is changing the behaviour of Arctic walruses and causing huge declines in some Antarctic
penguins species. Warm water fishes are driving polar species out of the Barents Sea. A toxic algal
bloom in the Northwest Pacific was the largest in at least the past 15 years. Domoic acid in the algae
can build up in shellfish, other invertebrates, and fish leading to illness and death in a variety of birds
and mammals that consume them. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2015-state-climate-warmoceans-loss-sea-ice-behind-big-changes
As Dr Curry has pointed out there are difficulties in using the current global climate models to predict future
climate with any certainty. Nevertheless, progress requires the on going monitoring of environmental data
such as greenhouse gases; temperatures throughout the atmosphere, ocean, and land; cloud cover; sea level;
ocean salinity; sea ice extent; and snow cover. NOAA compiles this from more than 450 scientists from 62
countries around the world. The global climate indicators help nations to understand the probable or possible
impact of global warming on the world and its inhabitants. Regional differences highlight the effect climate
phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño can have on any long term trend. It is
essential this research continues. The USA Committee on Science, Space & Technology are currently
holding a Full Committee Hearing - Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific
Method. Given the implication for our environment and such unique ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef
it is crucial that in Australia research continues without political and ideological distractions.
Update on Great Barrier Reef (GBR): As noted in previous reportedly global warming is the overriding
threat (NCWQ Environment Adviser’s Reports, July 2016, Feb 2016,March 2015); GBR-Coral-Mortality-13-June-2016.pdf
http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/media-room/latest-news/coral-bleaching/2016/the-facts-on-great-barrier-reef-coral-mortality; Ocean-acidity levels
will continue to increase as the ocean absorbs anthropogenic carbon-dioxide emissions www.csiro.au/State-of-the-Climate-2014; National
Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS). "Study projects unprecedented loss of corals in Great Barrier Reef due to
warming." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 22 January 2015. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150122103242.htm
Coral bleaching has been discussed previously (NCWQ Environment Adviser’s Reports, July 2016, Feb 2016, March 2015,
October2014, May2014)), in particular, the most serious bleaching event to hit the Reef on record in 2016, when
the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) reported the overall mortality to be 22% with
about 85%of that die-off occurring in the far north between the tip of Cape York and just north of Lizard
Island, 250 kilometres north of Cairns ( the most pristine of GBR). GBR-Coral-Mortality-13-June-2016.pdf
http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/media-room/latest-news/coral-bleaching/2016/the-facts-on-great-barrier-reef-coral-mortality In Global
warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals (2017), Professor T Hughes, James Cook University, with
45 other coauthors shows the footprint of bleaching on the GBR in 1998, 2002 and 2016, using aerial and
underwater survey data, with the spatial pattern of heat stress (Degree Heating Weeks, DHWs; °C-weeks)
during each mass-bleaching event.
(a) dark green (<1% of corals bleached), light green (1–10%), yellow (10–30%), orange (30–60%), red (>60%) in 631,638,1156 reefs
surveyed 1998,2002,2016 respectively
(b) dark blue (0 DHW), red (maximum DHW for each year (7, 10, 16, respectively)),orange and yellow (intermediate levels on a continuous
scale)
Professor Hughes and his colleagues found water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the
unprecedented bleaching in 2016. However these measures could give reefs a better chance to recover. Even
good colonizers and fast growing corals can take 10 to 15 years to recover hence assemblage structure of
corals is expected to change. A fourth bleaching event could interrupt the slow recovery. The authors urged
immediate global action to curb future warming to secure a future for coral reefs.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v543/n7645/full/nature21707.html?WT.mc_id=COM_Nature_1703_Hughes
Many reefs worldwide have declined due to a reduced cover of reef-building corals and an increased
abundance of upright macroalgae. Research conducted on Heron Island demonstrated that increasing ocean
acidification to elevated CO2concentrations predicted to occur in 2050 and 2100, advantages seaweeds over
corals. Vital corals could be significantly harmed by 2050 and killed off by 2100. A common brown algae
species found in reefs worldwide was shown to be among those that caused the most damage. Del Monaco, C..
Hay M.E., Gartrell1, P., Mumby P. J., & Diaz-Pulido1,G. Effects of ocean acidification on the potency of macroalgal allelopathy to a common
coral. Sci. Rep. 7, 41053; doi: 10.1038/srep41053 (2017). The authors said it was futile to remove seaweeds that have the
ability to regrow, and the problem could be tackled only by cutting carbon emissions.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/03/rising-carbon-emissions-could-kill-off-vital-corals-by-2100-study-warns
The GBRMPA has warned that more of the reef is showing built-up heat stress than this time last year, just
before its worst bleaching event. While cooperative efforts by the entire international community is needed
to address climate change and protect coral reefs worldwide the GBR independent review group said
Australia needs to do more. They made a number of recommendations aimed at meeting the 2018 water
quality, providing more effective regulations to reduce Reef pollution, controlling vegetation loss in Reef
Catchments, planning framework to protect the Reef’s outstanding universal values, managing sustainable
fisheries, enhancing Reef management, improving monitoring, modelling, evaluation and reporting.. A
funding shortfall of $143m to $408m to meet the Reef 2050 Plan actions was estimated. The report also says
Australia’s emission reduction targets are “not commensurate with a fair contribution to the reduced global
carbon budget” needed to meet Paris agreement targets and protect coral reefs worldwide. It specifically
criticises Australia’s support for new coal mines in Queensland that “pose a serious threat to the world
heritage area. Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan, Progress On Implementation Review By Great Barrier Reef Independent
Review Group February 2017 https://independent.academia.edu/DiTarte